PLAYOFF PICKS - SUPER BOWL XLIII

I hate to burst your bubble, you underdog-rooting football fan, but the Cardinals' ride has ended.
I think I'll be rooting for Arizona in the Super Bowl...I don't think I can really be sure until I actually see the teams and the game starts. The weird thing about the Steelers is that I should hate them, since they kill the Jets, but I really don't. Maybe because I like a good yellow/black combination in my uniforms...I don't know.

I do know that when it comes to these big games, championships specifically, defenses trump offenses. I realize the Cardinals are not your ordinary offense, and I do realize that their defense has played much better during this playoff run.

But the Steelers are head and shoulders better than them defensively, and are more than capable of holding their own offensively.

If the roles were reversed, and the strong defensive team was the underdog, a la the Giants last season, I'd be ready to pick them. But I can't really see the Cardinals getting another win. (Not that I've been lighting the world on fire up until now with my picks these playoffs.) So I think it's the Steelers, and the final score is only as close as this because I think the Cardinals tack something on late for the squares pools:
And here are a few prop bets (I love Super Bowl prop bets):

WILL KURT WARNER PASS JOE MONTANA'S CAREER RECORD FOR SUPER BOWL PASSING YARDS (1142 - WARNER WOULD NEED 364 IN SB XLIII) - I say No, though it will probably be close, because the Cardinals will be slinging playing from behind. I think Warner ends up with 330. (This also means I think Kurt Warner will not surpass his other two Super Bowl passing performances - 414 and 365 [incredible Super Bowl numbers, incidentally] - which is another prop bet.)

I love these - WHO WILL CATCH A PASS FIRST - HINES WARD OR SANTONIO HOLMES? I'm going to say Holmes, though Ward will have the more important catches.

WILL EDGERRIN JAMES SCORE A TOUCHDOWN? I say No.

PLAYER TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN FIRST: WILLIE PARKER OR LARRY FITZGERALD? I don't think Fitzgerald will get in the end zone, believe it or not. I think the Steelers will shut him down. I'm not 100% confident in Parker getting there either, but I'll go with Willie Parker.

A GIANTS FAN'S REACTION TO THE SUPER BOWL

Besides me, the only other person connected to johnnymets.blogspot.com to boldly pick the Giants over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII was Giants fan Justin In NYC. That merits a return engagement, writing about the win:

I've spent the last couple of days trying to figure out why the Giants win has been so satisfying. It finally struck me last night. For the first time in a long time, I got to root for an actual underdog.

This sort of thing doesn't happen when you live in New York. The Yankees are always the most talented and the most well-paid team out there. The Knicks just plain stink. It's not because they're a bunch of young guys in over their head. It's because they're a group of underachieving prima donnas who don't have enough personal pride to care. The Rangers are a slightly colder and slightly less offensive version of the same formula.

This year's Giants, though, are a different story. It's a team made up of good guys who play hard and seem to genuinely like each other. Strahan and Eli hanging out together on that float during the parade? That never would have happened before. The Offense and the Defense have always hated each other. Apparently, that must have been Tiki's fault.

And, they have the lowest payroll in the NFL. It's true. Look it up (I know John will, and probably already has). [I did, and according to USA Today, where that list you see to the right is from, Justin speaks the truth.]

For once, I was rooting against the juggernaut, the monolith, the Yankees. And I get the appeal of that now. But, that doesn't mean I'm changing my ways. The Knicks might still make the playoffs, and we're just a few days away from Pitchers and Catchers.

And with that, I think we turn the page on the Super Bowl. Unless some other huge thing comes up. But I doubt it. I have one more thing to say about the Jets, for tomorrow, and after that, it's our NASCAR pit stop, and by Monday we'll be full-fledged baseball. As Justin says, pitchers and catchers (note that these are not proper nouns) are right around the corner.

A PATS FAN'S REACTION TO THE SUPER BOWL

The Wife, a Patriots fan, is recovering from the Giants' win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. She weighs in with this entry:

I should’ve known the Patriots’ downfall was coming. But unfortunately, I – and the rest of New England – forgot what it means to be a sports fan in this area. This was a cold, hard slap back into reality.

Being a sports fan in Boston means you don’t plan a victory parade before the victory.

Being a sports fan in Boston means you don’t apply for a trademark for “19-0” or “The Perfect Season” before you’ve had a perfect season.

Being a sports fan in Boston means you don’t wear a red sweatshirt during the final game when your silly, gray hoodie has brought you luck all season.

Being a sports fan in Boston means you don’t get your hair cut before the big game and you don’t let your girlfriend sit in the luxury box (even if she is a supermodel).

Being a sports fan in Boston means you don’t go on your husband’s blog and guarantee victory for your team. (Sorry, that was stupid of me).

We only need to go back in history – 1986 when Roger Clemens left the dugout during Game 6 to shave for the post-game interviews, 2003 when the Red Sox grounds crew painted the World Series logo on the grounds of Fenway before the ALCS was over – to see that these are things you DON’T DO! Because when you do do them, you get screwed. And even if you don’t do them, you’ll probably still get screwed.

No, our sports history is based on suffering, heartache and blame. And now the cycle continues. Just when we thought we had won enough championships in recent years to have gotten rid of all jinxes, superstitions, and plain ol’ bad luck, and could turn all haughty and boastful, the sports gods have brought us back to reality. Face it: this is Boston. This is our legacy. We all should’ve known better.

GO SOX!!!

The thing that stood out most to me here - I thought I knew everything about Game 6 of the 1986 World Series - but I didn't know about the Roger Clemens shaving thing. So I looked it up on google, and it was on a blog or two, but I didn't trust that. So I went straight to the videotape. Early in the game, Clemens clearly has a little stubble (not confirmed by The Wife, who said, looking at the grainy video, "I can't tell, he's like 12."), and kind of has sideburns. Then, later, during Gary Carter's at bat in the 10th inning, he's in the dugout, and he's clean shaven. I couldn't find a definitive image from the early part of the game - but someone online somewhere took this picture of Clemens from his TV, and it is clear that Roger shaved:

Now, I know we have to turn the page to baseball. The Southern Bureau can't wait:

"Lets talk baseball. Forget football.

Mets projected lineup: courtesy mets.mlb.com

SS Jose Reyes
2B Luis Castillo
3B David Wright
OF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
OF Moises Alou
OF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider

THOUGHTS???"

I promise you - by Sunday night/Monday morning, I'll be full-fledged baseball. I'm working on a month-long season preview. Trust me. First, a couple of more football loose ends to tie up, then a brief NASCAR pit stop. Then away we go with baseball. Please bear with me.

MY THOUGHTS ON SUPER BOWL XLII

I wanted the Giants to win the Super Bowl, and prevent the Patriots from going 19-0. That, more than anything else, motivated my pick of the Giants over the Patriots. But I did believe that the game would be close - I did think that the Giants were capable of keeping the Patriots from scoring a lot of points, and if they did that, that they would have a shot at winning Super Bowl XLII.

But when the Patriots scored with about 3 minutes left, and the Giants were facing fourth down, and later third and long, I thought it was all over. And it was hard to get too disappointed, because as much as I believed the Giants could win the game, I never really expected that they would.

As soon as the game got underway, the Giants' chances started looking up - they controlled the clock in the first quarter, keeping the Patriots' offense off the field. Advantage: Giants.

Then the Patriots held them to a field goal. Advantage: Patriots.

The Giants had a tremendous pash rush, and Tom Brady got knocked down more than in any game I ever saw him get hit. Advantage: Giants.

The Patriots were still able to get in the end zone. Advantage: Patriots.

In the back-and-forth fourth quarter, the Giants looked like they would win, then lose, then they started getting breaks (breaks which usually go the Patriots' way), and they were able to pull it out. I never expected that they would. Going back to August, I thought the Giants would be awful this year. I thought Tom Coughlin would be gone. I thought the players would hate that he was back. I thought the Jets would have a more successful season - by a lot. There are a lot of things I was thinking as the game ended - here are my thoughts:

-I don't think this is why they lost (or at least, the number one factor of why they lost - it was probably a factor), but the Patriots got out of character this week. They were cocky. They don't get cocky - it's part of what has made them so successful. They had a target on their back, which said 18-0. To go around like they were going around Arizona the past week or so made that target grow bigger and bigger, in my opinion. Two pieces of evidence to support my theory:
1) When another team makes a prediction, or says something, a la Plaxico Buress saying the Giants would win 23-17, the Patriots usually let it go, and say, our actions on Sunday will speak for us. But Tom Brady (Brady of all people!) responded to Burress' comments, saying something like, "He thinks we're only scoring 17 points!?" In reality, they got 14.
2) I've mentioned this before - but Bill Belichick was downright charming with the media the week leading up to the Super Bowl. I have no distinct memory of previous media days, or the weeks leading up to his previous Super Bowls, but I don't remember Belichick talking so much to the media ever. He was talking about his summer plans, how successful the season was, etc. Almost like he was trying to make sure his image for the 19-0 team was a positive image. After the Super Bowl, we saw the real Belichick - one word answers, ornery, uncomfortable to interview. I don't really blame him - but it's his job to talk to the media, win or lose. He doesn't handle that too well in general, let alone after a Super Bowl loss. And the week leading up to the Super Bowl was really out of character. And I think a lot of the Patriots were out of character leading up to the Super Bowl.

-Tom Brady, on the other hand, is a class act. He really is, as football players go. He stood there post-game, answered all questions, didn't cut interviews short like Belichick did, and he gave decent soundbites. I understand it must be hard to do that after a tough loss - as a fan, if someone tried to interview me after a tough loss, I'd kill them. But that's not my job. It's the job of Belichick and Brady, and Brady handles it very well.

-Eli Manning's throw to David Tyree, which Tyree made a circus grab of against his helmet, after Manning eluded the defense, which looked to have a sack, is exactly why "In the Grasp" should NEVER be called in the NFL. I hate it. I understand it's meant to protect the quarterbacks, so they don't get slammed to the ground....but let them play. One of the most amazing plays in history happened as a result.

-Did you notice in Peyton Manning's booth, on one of the later replays, the girl standing next to Manning, after Eli threw the go-ahead touchdown, when Manning is cheering, that the girl was dying to give Peyton a high five and Peyton wouldn't even look at her? That was pretty funn.

-Again, I never watch Super Bowl halftime shows, so maybe I'm missing out - but I thought Tom Petty sounded awesome. I couldn't believe that he sounded so album-quality during halftime of the Super Bowl.

-If I was a fan of either team, I might have had a heart attack. That fourth quarter was way too exciting. I don't mean to make light of it, though - I wouldn't be surprised if some people did feel light-headed in that game. I can't even imagine if that were the Jets how I would have handled it. I get way too emotional in those situations.

-I know this sounds unbiased coming from a Jets fan, but this was not the greatest Super Bowl upset of all time. That conversation has to begin and end with the New York Jets over the Baltimore Colts. If not for Super Bowl III, Super Bowl XLII might never happen. You need to understand the history of the AFL-NFL merger to know how big that win was by the Jets...and though the game was a snorefest, it was the most important snorefest in history.

-About the only drawback in my mind is the fact that now the 1972 Dolphins are vindicated. But I think I can deal with that, because I've dealt with it all my life. I think I still hate Miami more than New England...but the gap is narrowing.

Here's my final word on the Patriots' 2007 season. For about half the season, they were one of the greatest teams of all-time - probably the greatest. But towards the end of the year, they became just a very good football team, even an excellent football team. But a beatable football team - not really the invinceable 16-0 team their record showed them as. Teams were getting close to beating them. Unfortunately for them, they lost in the worst spot imagineable. At 8-0 or 9-0, they were dominant. In the second part of the season, they were just another good 7-0/8-0 team. And 7-0 teams sometimes lose in the playoffs. The Patriots have been ripe for the picking for the last couple of months. On Sunday, they got picked.

SUPER BOWL XLII (IN PROGRESS)

I'm not going to be posting after the game, so I figure in between the third and fourth quarters is as good a time as any. Congratulations to people who had Patriots 7, Giants 3 in the squares - double winners. This has been an exciting 7-3 game. Here are my thoughts:

• The Giants defense has been as solid as a Giants fan could have hoped.
• Tom Petty sounded AWESOME at halftime. I'm not a huge fan - I'm a casual 'Greatest Hits'-type fan....but he was great. I would have figured him for a horrible, Bob Dylan-type voice, but he was great.
• Big play by Kevin Boss just now - first play by the Giants in the fourth quarter. Shockey who?
• Tom Brady might actually be hurt....he's not able to evade the Giants rush. I thought that was a media-overblown story.
• I don't care what color his skin is, Mike Carey is an excellent referee. (He became the first black referee in a Super Bowl Sunday night.)

A couple of predictions I didn't have the chance to put on the site before the game, but they came in well advance of the game - my dad picked Patriots 31, Giants 20. And then there's this from Rob in New Jersey:

"Hi John. Longtime reader, 4th or 5th time emailer. Love the site (...and all the rest of the email versions of the b.s. sports radio callers use to butter up the hosts in the hopes of getting more than the usual 23 seconds of air time). Anyway, I saw your prediction for the Super Bowl and your rationalization, and I couldn't help but take umbrage. And I wanted to register my umbrage before kickoff.

The idea that the 2007 Giants are the 2001 Patriots incarnate has been making me laugh. The 2001 Pats lost on November 18th of that year (to the Rams) and never lost again. They entered the SB on an eight game winning streak. Several of those wins were decisive. The Giants enter today's game on a three game winning streak (all three playoff games). They lost two of their final three games. In the one win, Eli Manning fumbled FIVE TIMES and threw 2 or 3 picks (can't remember which). Yes, they played the Patriots tough, but the Giants have not come close to duplicating the impressive pre-Super Bowl run of the 2001 Patriots, in my opinion. (I could provide more facts and figures, but nobody wants that.)

I may be proven to be a dope as the game unfolds, but I wanted to make sure my assessment didn't come off as Monday morning quarterbacking. Pats 41 - Giants 13. Keep up the good work!

-Rob
Cherry Hill, NJ"

Point taken, Rob. But I wasn't really looking that far back - I just meant in terms of Super Bowl matchups - not many people gave the 2001 Patriots a chance against the powerful Rams team, except for those who really knew the Patriots. The same happened this year with the Giants, in my opinion.

• Back to the bullets - the Giants just scored to take a 10-7 lead in the fourth quarter.
• That score reminds me of another thing - it sounds like (and on this broadcast, I realize it could be skewed) there are more Giants fans than Patriots fans. Although, I guess there has been more for a Giants fan to cheer for than a Pats fan up until now.

One more e-mail - I haven't exactly been tortured by the fact that the Giants are playing the Patriots - it's been an easy decision for me to root for the New York team, and against the perfect season. But it's downright torturous for my cousin - I think he intended for this to be published:

"We'll, the worst has happened. The Patriots and the Giants- a Jets fan's nightmare. I don't buyall this BS about a close game. We haven't had a good old fashioned blow out in a while at the Super Bowl. It used to happen every year. The Patriots will put an exclamation point on their perfect season with a big win. I'll say 42-17. The weather will be good and their experience will prevent any early jitters. The Giants have to have their luck run out soon. They were supposed to be bad. Their coach was supposed to be on the hot seat. Yours truly picked them to be 5-11. I still haven't gotten over week 5 when the Jets had them beat. Look at their post season so far. Tampa had barely beaten anyone all year. Dallas was banged up and playing lousy at the end of the year. Green Bay came out of no where this year. Who knows how good they really were? If I sound bitter, well I am. Too many crazy Giant fans yelling Phil Simms is a Hall of Fame QB while I was in High School. Brady broke Simms' completion % record earlier this post season. Now let him squash the Big Blue on Super Bowl Sunday. And the best part is that recent history tells us the the Super Bowl losers usually fair poorly the following year. Next year is a green and white year. Wait until next year..... Cuz"

I'm heading back to the couch. This should be a great ending. If it merits more writing, I'll revisit it on Monday. Post your reactions, if you have any, in the comments, or send along an e-mail.

THE SUPER PICK

The Super Bowl bye week is one of my least favorite events in all of sports. I despise it. Here are a couple of reasons why:

1) I overthink things. I actually prefer losing and being eliminated from my shares pool in the conference championship game weekend because otherwise I would have obsessed for these past two weeks over the Super Bowl bet.

2) There's not enough that goes on to keep me interested, and the media (not surprisingly) feels they have to cover every second of these two weeks. And we end up with a situation like Tom Brady's ankle - a non-story manufactured into a story. In other words, even though everyone and their brother knows it was a non-story, it was still everyone's top story.

3) I actually used the following words this week (the second week of the overblown coverage, which, I must stress, could cause damage to your sensibility): "Bill Belichick has actually been quite charming in all of these media availabilities."

It was actually this third thing, though, that (5 "th-" beginnings in a row!!) got me thinking (6 of 8!) the (7 of 9!) Giants had a chance. The Patriots seem awfully comfortable. I guess that would work in their favor...but when you reconsider that it might be confidence, or overconfidence...maybe the Giants can interpret it that way and use it to their advantage.

I suspect this will be a very tight game. I think the Giants have a real chance. And when it comes down to it, I need to stand by what I've been saying this entire season - I just don't see a team going 19-0. It just seems too hard. And I'll stand by that this one last week. If it happens, I will give the Patriots all of the credit they deserve. And if it doesn't happen, I'll be happy.

I worry about one thing with the Giants - Eli Manning. I'm as happy as anyone that he has come around this post-season. But I still think Eli has instances where he doesn't quite know what to do with the ball when protecting a lead, and for the Giants to win, he needs to figure that out. I have two times to cite where this happened: one was the playoff game against Dallas, where the Giants gave the Cowboys last opportunity after last opportunity with the ball because Eli couldn't run out the clock on offense (and he nearly turned it over). In that last regular season game, against New England, Eli threw one interception (the last time he turned the ball over, incidentally), and then failed to do anything effective in the fourth quarter as the Patriots came from behind to win the game. The Patriots could exploit that weakness again in this game.

I feel pretty strongly about one thing - if the Patriots score more than 30 points, I don't think the Giants can hang with them. I'm going to say it's the Giants' defense that is the key - hold the Patriots long enough, build a lead, then withstand a final push. That's the formula for a Giants win.

I think the most accurate thing I've heard during the two weeks between football games has been the comparisons between the Giants and the 2001 Patriots. No one was giving the Patriots a chance in that game, similar to many people with the Giants this year. These Patriots are like a bigger version of those Rams. I think the Giants do pull off a similar upset:
Another look, too, at the picks/standings through the conference championship games. For the Super Bowl, for the record, the Southern Bureau picks Patriots 32, Giants 21 (the pick has absolutely no bearing on his numbers in the Johnnymets Super Bowl squares pool), with Maroney scoring all of the touchdowns and winning the MVP. I guess I'll pick Eli as the MVP...I don't know who else would be that instrumental for the Giants.

THANK GOODNESS: I can't believe it took an extension of the deadline, but thank goodness the Mets have locked up Johan Santana. The numbers haven't been disclosed yet, but they'll be talked about next week. The topic shifts to baseball.....and NASCAR....next week.

FROM THE FANS - DAVE IN BRIGHTON

Well, the Super Bowl is drawing ever nearer, and the weirdest Super Bowl bye week I've experienced is drawing to a close. I'm getting inundated nonstop in New England with Patriots coverage, my family is getting Super Bowl coverage in New York for the Giants, and I'm stuck here having to hear all about it while not really caring.

We'll do a last "From the Fans" segment, though, this time from Dave in Brighton. Dave has been in New England for the same length of time I have, and as he explains, he had no prior loyalties preventing him from blending right in to a winning football culture:

I didn't even watch football at all until fall of 2001. My roommate at the time in Brighton was dismayed by this, so he told me that '01 would be the season I would start being a fan. His first instruction: "Pick a team." I figured all the Pats games would be on TV, so I went with the Patriots.

I will point out that at the time I made the decision, the Patriots had been to two Super Bowls but won none, and the team was still in the post-Pete Carroll doldrums.

Seven years hence, there have been six post-season appearances, three Super Bowl wins, and one undefeated season. In short, the Pats have made it easy to be a fan.

So what's it like? I may have come late to the party, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to enjoy it.

I think sports fans find a shared identity in the bad times, mainly because only one team wins each season. But now I find myself in a place that plans victory parades before the game is even played. It's been nice to only identify with the good times. I'm sure that bothers some people, but what do you want me to do? Stop rooting for a team because it's good? Heck no. I'll stop rooting when they're bad. Duh.

Safe to say Sunday's game will come down to a field goal. I'll go Pats 31, Giants 28.

Dave in Brighton is also a talented blogger. He has filled in on the rare occasion that he watches a Mets game that I am unable to see.

AN UNRELATED BASEBALL NOTE TO OMAR MINAYA: Omar, give the man what he wants. If Johan Santana wants 7 years, you give him 7 years. If he will take 6, but only for an extra $10 million, you shell out the money. Don't even let it get close to the Friday, 5pm deadline. Please.

FROM THE FANS - JUSTIN IN NYC

The strange week for Jets fans continues. With the Super Bowl pitting the Giants against the Patriots, and all the news in football centering on either the cross-town rival or the division rival, it's been a rough week. As I've mentioned, I'm in the unique position, living in New England and having grown up in New York, of knowing fans of both teams. So this week, we are featuring their thoughts on the Super Bowl, and living vicariously through them as their teams get ready to play in the big game......again. While I still wait to see my team in one.

Our second entry is Justin in NYC, who grew up a Giants fan in New Jersey. Justin doesn't flaunt his football fanhood (he does flaunt his Yankee fanhood, though it's quite tolerable for me), but the excitement about the Giants shines through every now and again. Justin has made trips a few years now in a row to watch the Giants play road games, and when he was up visiting this past weekend, he was excited about staying up until about 2:30am to watch the Super Bowl XXI highlights on the NFL Network. Here are his thoughts:

There are two questions that every Giant fan is asking themselves this week. "Can they win?", and "How disappointed will I be if they don't?"

Let's take them one at a time.

Can they win?

Who am I to say no? They weren't supposed to get this far. Tampa was at best a tossup, and they had no chance against Dallas and Green Bay. Remember? Why am I asking so many questions? It's a rhetorical tool!

Ever since that week 17 loss that everyone treated as a win, The Giants have been on an unbelievable roll. But none of those wins have been blowouts, and even a game they dominated ended up in Overtime. They're doing just enough to win each week, and getting key plays at all the right times. I don't know if they can keep it up.

I'm also uncomfortable with how happy they are to be in the Super Bowl. They've spent the last week being coronated around New York. That's what happened in 2000, and everyone remembers how that game ended.

But, that being said. I have more faith in this team, and I have faith in Eli and Plax and Jacobs and Bradshaw and a pass rush that doesn't quit and a resurgent secondary that has made huge play after huge play all post season. So the answer is yes, they can win.

But what if they don't?

I think I'll be ok with it. At around 10 pm Sunday night, I'll either be basking in the glory of my team's 3rd Super bowl championship, or I will have just witnessed history. And as long as the Giants show up and put up a strong effort, I think I'll be satisfied.

John wants me to include a score, and so I will. Let's go Giants 34 Pats 30.

Justin from NYC lives in New York City, and is a political blogger. Justin contributes to the site every so often, and this time was nice enough to mix in some lowercase letters to accompany the capitalized ones.

FROM THE FANS - THE WIFE

This is a strange week for Jets fans. The Super Bowl pits the Giants against the Patriots, and all the news in football centers on the cross-town rival and the division rival. In the worst of times, it's usually one or the other, not both. But that's what we face right now. I'm in the unique position, though, living in New England, of knowing fans of both teams. So this week, we'll feature their thoughts on the Super Bowl, and live vicariously through them as their teams get ready to play in the big game......again. While I still wait to see my team in one.

We begin with The Wife, who grew up in a Patriots household, was indifferent towards the Patriots when we started dating, then thought being a football fan was easy as the Patriots rolled off three championships in our first years together.

Something strange is going on with this Super Bowl…

Boston has always been home to the underdog, the teams that get no respect, the teams that are cursed, the teams that you love to root for. New York, on the other hand, is home to the Evil Empire, the teams that win year over year, the teams that you want to see suffer miserably.

So how is it that in this year’s Super Bowl, it seems everyone is rooting for the Giants to spank the Patriots silly?

I’ll admit, the Boston sports teams are losing a little bit of their scrappy luster. The Sox are no longer the loveable team that broke the curse in 2004. This year, they basically bought themselves a World Series this year with a payroll that rivaled the Yankees’. The Celtics signed Kevin Garnett and are now #1 in the NBA. BC football did well for the season, the Bruins – well, who cares about hockey anyway? And the Patriots (with Tom “Baby Daddy” Brady at the helm and Randy “It was an accident” Moss receiving) are now 18-0, certain to go 19-0 for the season.

See, even my attitude has changed – no longer am I certain of impending collapse for my sports teams, but now I’m guaranteeing victory in the Super Bowl. (Yes, a GUARANTEE – Pats 35, Giants 17.)

What is wrong with me? What is wrong with Boston? When did we become New York??

The Wife also lives '200 Miles From The Citi' and is a frequent contributor to johnnymets.blogspot.com.

A WINTER BLAST

The draft is over, and the weekend visit/mini-BU Reunion is over. And I can't wait for baseball season.

That's always the result of this weekend and its activities - when Dave in Brighton, Justin From NYC, and the Southern Bureau are all up for the weekend, we catch a BU hockey game, and then have our baseball draft. I need to spend a minute updating you on our draft:

We do things a little differently - for about the fifth year now, we're doing this league using only teams from the NL and AL East divisions. And we don't use the traditional stats. This year it's:
OBP, R, RBI, SB, and K's on offense and W, SV, ERA, K, and BB for pitchers.

There are other minor rules, involving which players are eligible for the league based on trades and free agent signings and such. You may think we're crazy for holding our draft in January, before the dust settles for the season, but we think it's part of the deal. For example, the Southern Bureau drafted the rights to Johan Santana, so while I still hope the Mets land him, if my suspicion that he won't even be traded turns out to be true, I won't be too upset.

And Dave in Brighton is being punished by the baseball gods. In the one year he does a traditional draft, instead of employing some sort of blockbuster strategy in which he tries to game the system, it looks like the Orioles are on the verge of pulling off a blockbuster trade. Or two. (And I think Dave has Brian Roberts, but I know he has Erik Bedard.) Both Bedard and Roberts look like they are going to be shipped out of the division, punishment to Dave, in my eyes, for drafting Bedard before I could. So it looks like I'm already charmed this year, because I wasn't even considering the Bedard trade (to Seattle) as I prepared for the draft...and I would have been left in a lurch had I taken him in the draft. And Dave went from having an awesome team to now having a team with two very big holes.

Who did I end up with? Well, a few Mets, no one earth-shattering, position-player-wise - Brian Schneider and Moises Alou...but I also got Pedro Martinez*. I was able to get Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Chad Cordero and Ryan Zimmerman again, holdovers from last year's co-champions. Former Mets also dot my team - Scott Kazmir, Cliff Floyd, and Lastings Milledge. I'm also psyched to see what happens with Matt Garza for the Rays and Scott Rolen in Toronto. That trophy is here to stay.

I know it's boring to go over fantasy stuff...but I'll only do it occasionally. Expect another update mid-season. I'm very excited to get to baseball - but there's one more week where the focus will be on football. Being in the "stuck in the middle" position that I am, as a Jets fan watching the Giants and Patriots get ready to play in the Super Bowl, I have the advantage of knowing many Patriots fans and many Giants fans. Two of each will weigh in this week with special guest blogs this week. It'll start late Monday/early Tuesday with The Wife.

IF HE GOES

This is looking more and more like an unlikely scenario, because everyone is saying he will probably be staying with the Jets now, but there is a chance that Chad Pennington will be playing somewhere else next season. (And it's probably still a pretty good chance, because you can't really believe what anyone in sports says anyway.)

The problem is, Pennington is going to be making a lot of money, too much to be a backup. There may be some restructuring of a contract going on, there may be a chance he beats out Kellen Clemens for the starting job in training camp next year (instead of being handed the job as he was this year), or there's a chance that's all talk, and Pennington will be gone come draft day. Let's assume the Jets move him (and here's where I stand if that happens: Wherever Pennington goes, I'll be rooting for him. He's been nothing but a professional in whatever situation he's been in with the Jets...he's a class act. Even after he had hoped he would be moving on, and heard that he might be back with the Jets - it's really out of his hands what happens - his line was, "If I'm with the Jets, I'll be the best Jet I can be."). Here's what I have worked out as the likeliest scenarios of where Pennington would end up:

UNLIKELY

It's unlikely, but not impossible, for Pennington to end up with one of these teams. He's so respected around the league, I get the impression, that any of these teams, which are pretty set at quarterback, would love to have him, at the right price, as a backup, in case they lose their star, then they would have a legitimate leader to step in and take his place:

New England (Tom Brady), Indianapolis (Peyton Manning), Green Bay (Brett Favre, then Aaron Rodgers), Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger), New York Giants (Eli Manning), San Diego (Phillip Rivers), Dallas (Tony Romo), Seattle (Matt Hasselbeck), New Orleans (Drew Brees), Jacksonville (David Garrard), Denver (Jay Cutler), Cleveland (Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn), Cincinnati (Carson Palmer), Tennessee (Vince Young), Arizona (Matt Leinart), St. Louis (Marc Bulger), Oakland (JaMarcus Russell), and Washington (Jason Campbell).

That leaves 13 teams (not counting the Jets) that could use some help at quarterback, and in a year where the free agent class is pretty weak, Pennington might be an attractive option (which is why it might be a leverage thing that the Jets are saying he's coming back next year).

Here are the teams that would likely make a play for Pennington.

VERY LIKELY

Miami - The Dolphins need a quarterback. So that's number one. Secondly, Bill Parcells is there now, and he drafted Pennington with the Jets. He likes players he's familiar with. I think this is a pretty strong option. The only issue is the 'in the division' factor. (And the fact that earlier today, word came out of Miami that Trent Green was Parcells' man next year........but things change....and people lie.)

Kansas City - The Herman Edwards connection. The Chiefs' QB position was a disaster last year. Edwards and Pennington teamed up for three playoff appearances, and by all accounts, still get along.

Chicago - The QB position is just about the only reason this team isn't a playoff contender year after year.

San Francisco - QB issues out west - Mike Nolan dressed down his quarterback of the future, Alex Smith, and he didn't take it well. Pennington's arm, which isn't strong, wouldn't be a big deal in the land of Joe Montana and the West Coast Offense.

Baltimore - Starting fresh, and a new quarterback would help change the face of the offense.

JUST PLAIN POSSIBLE

These teams aren't definites or out-of-the questions...they're just possibilities.

Buffalo - Trent Edwards stole J.P. Losman's job - but is he blowing anyone away? Losman probably won't be back with Buffalo - he is in the same boat as Pennington, but has flat-out asked to be traded. This is unlikely, though, because of the division factor, and they wouldn't be willing to give up as much, most likely, as Miami.

Houston - They're kind of set with Matt Schaub, but when he went down, it was Sage Rosenfels. You'd probably feel better with Pennington coming in in that situation.

Philadelphia - Word is, now, that Donovan McNabb isn't going anywhere either (do you believe it?). But if he does, Pennington would be a good replacement. He's coming from New York, which is as close as you can get to the scrutiny of Philly.

Minnesota - This way he'd be backed up by Brooks Bollinger again.

Detroit - Jon Kitna didn't make many friends with their disastrous end to the season. They are undergoing a lot of changes in the coaching ranks...wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of players gone, too...or brought in.

Atlanta - Need to change everything - why not Chad Pennington at quarterback?

Tampa Bay - Unless they're married to Jeff Garcia.

Carolina - They learned this year that a few extra quarterbacks never hurt.

Just so I'm on the record - If Chad Pennington is back with the Jets, and he's playing, they will be better than this year (can't be much worse). The protection needs to be better, and the run game needs to be better. And I'll love it. But I think with the Jets' current state, he's probably better off going somewhere else and getting a fresh start.

ONE MORE SOB STORY: I know I've been laying it on thick with the 'woe is me' stuff lately, but I think I have a right, since it's Giants-Patriots in the Super Bowl. That's almost worst-case scenario for a Jets fan. But I just want to say - here's the difference between the Jets and the Giants. The Giants have a Doug Brien moment, and their kicker misses two field goals, what happens? He gets the chance to redeem himself and connects. The Jets have their Doug Brien moment, and they actually get Doug Brien, and it's heartbreak after heartbreak. That just about sums it up right there.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES RECAP

That was an exciting day of football. The bad news: I lost my bet, so I'm out of my pool. The good news: I feel like this NFL season was worth it - we've got ourselves a new Super Bowl matchup. My thoughts:

PATRIOTS 21, CHARGERS 12
The Chargers blew this opportunity. When Tom Brady looks as bad as he looked in the early part of this game, you need to pounce, and pounce quick. All the Chargers could muster were field goals...and that's not going to do it. LaDainian Tomlinson may have been hurt - but continues to be invisible in playoff games. I need to stress this - he does get yards in playoff games - but he hasn't changed a playoff game, and he hasn't put up a super performance in a playoff game. And he was a non-factor (again, albeit with an injury) in this game. But the Chargers put up a fight with the likes of Michael Turner and Darren Sproles...and Phillip Rivers played but could not get the ball into the end zone.

One other thing worth commenting on - did you happen to see when Nate Kaeding made his third field goal - just before the half, which made it 14-9 Pats? He started celebrating like the Chargers had just taken the lead or won the game. Take it easy Kaeding...maybe if you had kicked like that in your other playoff games, a 14-9 deficit at halftime of the AFC Championship Game wouldn't feel like such a big deal.

GIANTS 23, PACKERS 20 OT
The only thing wrong with this game was that it hit the over. And I'll tell you why before I go any further. The third quarter - both teams got drives sustained (after defensive stops) by penalties. The penalty on the Packers, which seemed legit, leading to the Giants' TD, and then the Sam Madison penalty, which I've never seen a replay of, which seemed like payback for the Packers' penalty on the Giants' drive. I maintain had those penalties not happened, the game would have been 13-13 going into overtime, and I'd be sitting pretty in my pool. But I digress (I really am taking the loss in the pool a lot better than I thought I would).

The Giants pulled off the upset in another fantastic game by Eli Manning. I can't believe the maturing of Eli Manning that we're watching this post-season. And I'm surprisingly happy for him. I should clarify - I've never hated the Giants. I certainly dislike certain people involved with the Giants (not a Coughlin fan), but I'm pretty indifferent to the Giants. I'll root for them, I'll root against them, depending on the situation, but I'm indifferent. Mostly, usually, (not lately), I find them boring to watch, so I don't even bother. But I've jumped on their bandwagon, and I'm rooting for them this post-season. And I'm really happy for them and for Eli Manning. (And other than the Super Bowl matchup thing, I couldn't lose with this NFC Championship, because I like Favre and the Packers a lot, too.)

The Super Bowl matchup now is one that has never happened before (YES!). And it's interesting, because I'm willing to bet that never before has there been a Super Bowl matchup not where both teams played in the regular season (that's happened many times before), but where they played in the last week of the regular season. And if that's the case (and they have played in the last week of the regular season), I bet it wasn't as intense as Giants-Patriots in Week 17 of this past season. I wonder a couple of things right away:

1) Who does it benefit more? The Patriots, who game plan so well, or the Giants, who now have not only a recent game plan against this team, but a game plan that worked, and just needs a little tweaking?

2) The teams battled hard just a few weeks ago. Is there any carryover into the big game?

3) Don't you get the feeling the Patriots would rather not play the Giants? New York is a team that knows them, having already played them, and is hot. 10 straight wins on the road. Playing its best football. Things seem to be breaking for them. If I were New England, I'd rather be playing the Packers, with their old quarterback, instead of the Giants, with their young quarterback playing the best football of their career.

One last point - I wrote this week about the Giants being a better team without Jeremy Shockey (or, at least, Eli Manning being a better quarterback without him). I can't believe I totally forgot about Tiki Barber. What a difference it must make for the Giants to not have him badmouthing the coach, putting down the quarterback. He must be steaming over at NBC watching the Giants do this....and I kind of like that.

SUPER BOWL XLI

I love the Super Bowl. I really do. I love Super Bowl history, I love that they use roman numerals, I love the commercials. I love these America's Games that the NFL Network has been running, which let you relive some great Super Bowls, and the seasons leading up to them, also including some stuff I've never seen before.

I can't imagine what it will be like when the Jets make it back to the game someday (maybe next year?), a game which has come a long way since the Jets' last appearance in III.

But I'll tell you what I don't like. I don't like two weeks of hype. I don't like rematches (which I'm sure you all know). Two Bills-Cowboys....two Redskins-Dolphins...two 49ers-Bengals...three! Steelers-Cowboys. What wastes.

Anyway, this year it's the Colts-Bears. This is a weird game, because I have no idea what is going to happen (well, that's not the weird thing - I never know what's going to happen). The weird thing is, nothing is sure - it's all wishy-washy.

I feel like there's an equal chance of:
1) Peyton Manning having the greatest game of his life, or being a total failure.
2) Rex Grossman being great or awful.
3) The Colts defense being great or awful.
4) The Colts being able to score on the Bears or being shut down.
5) The Bears putting up 0 points or 20+ points.

And many more.

But I'm going with the Colts to win something like 34-24. That means they'll hit the over on the 48.5. One other thing I like about the Super Bowl is all the prop bets - how many touchdowns will this team score, etc. I love the over/under ones. I selected a few off one of the internet sites that I will watch for this Sunday:

1) Team to score last in the game - Indianapolis
2) 2.5 total interceptions by both teams - OVER (Rex Grossman might do this by himself)
3) 131.5 rushing yards by Chicago - UNDER (A hunch on my part)

Enjoy the game, and look for consistent updates soon on johnnymets.blogspot.com.

JOHNNYJETS.BLOGSPOT.COM OFFICIALLY ENDORSES THE COLTS

This is not a pick. That will come next week. This is me throwing my hat into the Colts' ring. I want the Colts to win Super Bowl XLI.

I don't know what will happen if the Colts win. I don't know if a Super Bowl win will set them off on a tear that will result in Super Bowl win after Super Bowl win. I suspect not. But I do think Peyton Manning as an individual, and the Colts as a team, are too good to not win a Super Bowl, and I want them to win one when the Jets are not in their way. The Colts have finally gotten past the Patriots - if it doesn't happen this year, as I've written before, I'm not sure when or if it will.

So I'm rooting for the Colts over the Bears. Really, I have nothing against the Bears. I wouldn't mind seeing them win. I think Brian Urlacher gets a raw deal - all these people calling him overrated. The guy is friggin' good. He's all over the field. I don't think he's overrated at all. (His choice in women friends is dubious, but that's another story.) I don't particularly like Rex Grossman, but he's harmless. Same with the rest of the team.

But the other thing at play here is that I like the Colts. I like Peyton Manning. I know a lot of people have problems with Manning, and his ubiquity. I say, good for him. (Speaking of which - I only saw a quick shot of it at the end of the game last week, but did you see the fan in Indy who was wearing that fake hair and mustache that Manning wears in the phone commercial? I like that because the guy didn't know it was going to get him on TV, but he wore it anyway, a very subtle thing to support his team, and his reward was getting on TV. Good for him.) (Another parenthetical statement - two 'good for him''s in consecutive thought tangents...I'll try to go the rest of the way without another 'good for him'.) I also really like Tony Dungy. He seems about as genuine as they come, which is tough for a head coach in the NFL (see: Herman Edwards, Nick Saban). I also have a soft spot in my heart for Reggie Wayne, due to his fantasy football success.

There was a time growing up where I had to pick a secondary team to root for come the post-season, because the Jets were never playing. In the late 80's/early 90's that team was the Houston Oilers (I think I liked their logo), so I still have a liking for the Tennessee Titans franchise. I also like the Packers, who I picked up for most of the 90's (I love the yellow and green). If I still played this game today, and sometimes I do, because the Jets haven't had a ton of playoff success, despite being in the playoffs, I think my team would be the Colts. So this is their year, and this is my team. For one more game. Then it's back to the Jets.

AND SO IT GOES...

The next best thing to the Jets playing in the Super Bowl is the man who's singing the National Anthem:

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

It doesn't make much sense for me to even be writing this, since 90% of the people who read it will be at my house talking to me this weekend, but here are my picks anyway:

New Orleans at Chicago: I really think the Saints are better than the Bears, but I really think home field advantage makes this much of a difference. The Saints are a dome team, and there's a reason so few dome teams have been in the Super Bowl. They lose the championship games outdoors. I'm rooting for the story of the Saints, but I'm thinking the Bears will win. Bears 27, Saints 17

New England at Indianapolis: I realize I seem biased against the Patriots, because I'm always picking against them, but I'm doing it again. They didn't necessarily win last week, the Chargers lost. They played an awful final few minutes, the Chargers did. But the Patriots get credit for pulling out the win, can't take that away from them. I don't hate Peyton Manning. Whenever the Jets aren't in his way, I root for him to win, so that people can stop talking about him not winning the big games. So I'm rooting for him this year. And I fully believe that if he doesn't win Sunday, he's never going to win a Super Bowl. It's this year or never. That's my thought. And if the Colts lose on Sunday, I'm going to start building an argument that Marvin Harrison is the worst post-season player on the Colts - not Peyton Manning. Hopefully I won't have to write that. Colts 31, Patriots 21

As for the Super Bowl matchup sheet, anything but Patriots-Bears works for me.

SUPER BOWL XL

SUPER BOWL XL

It's been a forgettable NFL season for me, about the only good thing to come out of it is a brand new Super Bowl matchup. So I can cross Seattle-Pittsburgh off my list (yes, there is a list...actually a spreadsheet) and hope that next year the Jets are the ones involved in another new Super Bowl matchup. (For those of you unfamiliar with my obsession, I want every NFL team to face every other NFL team, in their respective conferences, in the Super Bowl. Same goes for the World Series.)

I know there's a lot for me to weigh in on, what with the Jets' coaching debacles...I mean, changes...but I just want to put this season behind me for a bit. So I'm here to make a Super Bowl prediction, and then move onto johnnymets.blogspot.com for a while.

Back at the beginning of the post-season, I trashed Shaun Alexander as an MVP and said he'd probably cost his team a playoff game due to a fumble. I guess that hasn't happened, but he did fumble against Washington when he got knocked out...it just didn't cost the team the game (but shouldn't an MVP being knocked out of a playoff game cost your team the game...maybe he's not so V. Just a thought.)

That said, hopefully Alexander will NOT fumble and cost his team this game, because I am picking the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL. It's been a long road for the Steelers. I know they have a lot of emotion going into this game, what with Jerome Bettis and all, and there are going to be a lot of Steelers fans in Detroit. I know that. I didn't think the Steelers would be able to win in Indy...and then I did not think they'd be able to win in Denver. But the road's gotta catch up to them eventually. This is where it will.

Seattle is on the road too, which isn't the greatest thing. But this is a different Seattle team than the one that stunk on the road last year. Granted they weren't great away from Qwest this year, but they're a very good team. I can't believe Seattle is actually the underdog. I would take Seattle getting the points in this one easy.

I think the quarterbacks in this game are pretty evenly matched - but the edge might actually go to Pittsburgh because Ben Roethlisberger has a better set of receivers, I think, than Matt Hasselbeck. I think Seattle's got a better running game (Bettis isn't a threat until the Steelers are inside the 20), and I think people are going to be surprised by how well the Seattle defense plays tomorrow night.

I'm going with Seattle, 27-21.

I'm rooting, in a player pool that I'm in, for Jerome Bettis to score two more touchdowns than Shaun Alexander. I also need neither of the quarterbacks to throw a touchdown. I'm not sure how my pick will happen, with me still winning the pool...so I have a couple of different rooting interests in this game. I can root for the kickers to have good games. 9 field goals for the Seahawks, 3 touchdowns for Bettis.

I find it funny (or pathetic) that the Steelers made it to the Super Bowl this year as a 6 seed when, at the beginning of the year, filled with naive hope, I wrote that the Jets would need to win the division, because it's near impossible for a team to make the Super Bowl without playing a post-season home game (or even without home field advantage throughout). This was after the Jets lost in Pittsburgh, after winning in San Diego in last year's playoffs. So the Steelers have accomplished a lot already, just by getting to the big game. But I think, sad for them, it's all over tomorrow night. Let the record show that I think, at this point, I am rooting for the Steelers to win. But I'm picking the Seahawks to beat them. See you in baseball season.

One note I forgot yesterday, and another new note. First, the new one.

ESPN.com today came out with a "Misery Index", ranking NFL franchises/cities in order of most miserable to least, taking into consideration such factors as long-term pain and recent pain, historic despair and recent despair, and intangibles.

It's hard to argue with Cleveland as number one (despite the team's tremendous successes in the 1950's), what with its AFC Championship horrors and not much else in terms of wins, then the whole losing a franchise thing, and having it replaced with an expansion team.

But speaking as a lifelong Jets fan, it's hard to justify the Jets as a 15...right in the middle of the pack. For crying out loud - the Jets play in GIANTS STADIUM!!! IN NEW JERSEY!! Arizona and Seattle are ahead of the Jets - no one even cares about those teams. That eliminates all potential for misery. San Diego? They live in San Diego - if the Chargers stink, all they have to do is look at their weather. Buffalo?!! Oh, wait, yeah, Buffalo deserves it. The Bills are all they have. I'm not sure Minnesota belongs ahead of the Jets - sure, they're 0-for-4 in the Super Bowl, but they've been to the Super Bowl 4 times!! They're a pretty successful franchise, recent history notwithstanding. Same thing with Philly - recent history withstanding. So that alone puts the Jets in the top ten. The Jets are pretty miserable - and if they continue to head in the direction they're heading, it'll get even more miserable.

Last thing - I forgot to update yesterday where we stand on the "Matchups That Have Already Happened In The Super Bowl, And Which We Need To Root Against This Year". Right now, all we're left with in this department are:
Redskins vs. Broncos - Super Bowl XXII. We won't have to worry about this one after this weekend - see ya, Redskins.
And Patriots vs. Panthers - Super Bowl XXXVIII. This could be alive another week - Panthers could well beat the Bears, and the Patriots could well beat the Broncos.

Last week we said good-bye to the Broncos-Giants Super Bowl XXI re-match, as well as the possibility of Jacksonville getting its first ever appearance. I maintain the biggest waste of a Super Bowl repeat was the Bengals- 49ers in Super Bowls XVI and XXIII. If Cincinnati is making two Super Bowls, at least give them a different opponent.

Sunday, 1pm, Jets (6-1) at Buffalo (2-5)

The Jets have a real shot at being all alone in first place by the end of Sunday. (More on the Patriots-Rams in a little bit.) Buffalo was the site of the end of the Jets' season last year, and that will be in the forefront of some of the Jets' minds this weekend. (You may remember, the Jets went to Buffalo with a chance to win the rest of their games to make it into the playoffs in Week 14 last season, and laid an absolute egg...Chad Pennington just wasn't sharp all last year after coming back from the injury, and this was the first game that we really saw it. In very cold temperatures, Pennington and the Jets lost, 17-6, beginning and end-of-season losing streak.) I have a feeling the Jets will continue what they started against Miami last week and just blow the Bills out of the water. This one probably won't be as close as the first game between the two teams.

The Jets will most likely be without Wayne Chrebet, who has a back problem, and if that's the case, Jerricho Cotchery will start in his place. The Bills might be without Josh Reed, but that won't really matter. What might matter is there's a chance Troy Vincent will play for the Bills...I think that would be his first action all season. So he might be rusty, but if he's effective, that could be a problem for the Jets. I don't think Lawyer Milloy will play - he also missed the game last month.

The Jets are starting to talk Super Bowl again. Not in a cocky way, but the same way they were talking about it when training camp broke back in August. They're saying anything less than a championship this season would be a disappointment, and they're talking about how they've done what they've needed to do. They know that the toughest part of their schedule is still to come - but you've got to win the games they schedule for you, and the Jets have done that 6 out of 7 times (and hopefully 7 out of 8). Next week, the Jets host Baltimore - and it's all uphill from there. But let's focus on this week for now - the Jets are favored by three in Buffalo. I say, 24-10, Jets.

As for the rest of the schedule - I had my worst picking week by far last week - couple that with the fact that I had my blog entry erased, and last weekend was probably one of the worst of the year for me. (The Jets win was on Monday, so that doesn't count for the weekend.) Anyway, I was just 5-9 last week, 59-54-3 on the season. I need to pull away from the .500 mark, for entertainment purposes:

(Here's a joke I thought of last week, that I hope doesn't offend any of my readers. We just had Jehovah's Witnesses come to the door. That part is not a joke - that really just happened. But here's the joke part - at the school, we had a Halloween parade last Friday, but one of the kids in the class didn't want to participate because his mom felt Halloween was worshipping the devil. Which is fine, whatever. But the other teacher I work with said, 'I've seen that type of thing a lot, usually Jehovah's Witnesses don't celebrate Halloween.' So, sarcastically, I say, 'Yeah, I could see why they don't like Halloween. They're very uncomfortable with knocking on stranger's doors and asking for stuff.' Oh man, am I funny. Just had to share that. OK - onto the picks.)

Philadelphia is a pick-'em at Pittsburgh. The only good thing about my blog being erased last week is that I made a mistake saying Baltimore had a good shot at unseating both the Eagles, then the Patriots, from the ranks of the unbeaten in consecutive weeks. A miscalculation on my part. That would be the position the Steelers are in now. Incredible - both are home games, too. I am sold on the Steelers right now, and am convinced they'll be a problem for whoever they play the rest of the year (earlier this year I kept picking against them because I felt Roethlisberger would lose eventually). Well, I still think the Steelers are better than I've been giving them credit for, but I think the Eagles win a defensive struggle this week to get to 8-0. It'll be close, though, so I'm glad this is a pick-'em.

Detroit is a 3-point favorite over the Redskins, in Detroit. I just feel like if the Lions can beat the Giants in Giants Stadium, they can beat Washington in Detroit. (The Lions also came close to winning in Dallas, but close doesn't count, as we found out with the Jets versus the Patriots.) But I digress. The Lions are the pick, giving 3.

Dallas is a one-point favorite against the Bengals in Cincinnati. Dallas needs a win to get back to .500, and this is a winnable game for them. I'll take Dallas.

The Panthers are giving 7 to the Raiders in Carolina. Neither team is very good, and I don't think one team is better by a touchdown. So I'll take the Raiders getting the points, even though I think the Panthers will probably win.

Miami is a 3-point favorite over Arizona in Miami. Arizona doesn't seem to be able to win on the road, and Miami doesn't seem to be able to win at all. I think Arizona has a better chance at winning on the road than Miami does at all. Arizona, plus the points.

Kansas City is giving three in Tampa Bay. The Chiefs are on a roll, so are the Bucs, but the Chiefs are a better team, I think. I'll take the Chiefs, -3.

The Giants are nine-point favorites over the Bears at the Meadowlands. Interesting few weeks for the Giants - they've played three straight games against NFC North teams, one week removed from playing the Packers. (The Lions are in a similar boat, playing their third straight against NFC East teams. Not that it matters, I just noticed.) I think the Giants win this game, but I don't see them blowing anyone out (not counting the Vikings, who the Giants just seem to own.) So I'll take the Giants to win, but the Bears to cover the nine-point spread, somehow.

Seattle's a 6-and-a-half point favorite over San Francisco. Seattle should be able to win this one in San Fran, by a touchdown.

Another one out west, San Diego hosts New Orleans, and the Chargers are giving six-and-a-half. The Chargers are still streaking, and the Saints always disappoint. So I think the Chargers will cover.

The Patriots are a 2-point favorite over the Rams in St. Louis. I guess coming off a 21-game winning streak the Patriots get the benefit of the doubt, and that's why they're favored...but all that counts right now is that they've lost one game in a row...and I think it's about to become two. Ty Law is out 4-to-6 weeks, and there are rumblings he might miss the rest of the season. Things have broken well for this team so many times in the past that they might be able to win through the Law injury, and the fact that RB Corey Dillon might not play, but at least for this week, I think, they'll lose. The Rams are also 4-0 under Mike Martz in the week following a bye week...not that that makes a huge difference, it's just another stat I like. So I'll take the Rams getting points at home - this one'll be a high scorer. I'd probably also go over the 48 over-under if I were picking those too.

In Denver, the Broncos are six-and-a-half point favorites over the Texans. The Texans have been playing well, and I'm not sure they win this game, but they'll keep it to 3 or 4 points. So I'll take Houston.

Sunday night, in Baltimore, it's Cleveland getting six from the Ravens. The Browns always play the Ravens tough, but with Jamal Lewis coming back this week, I think I like the Ravens.

Monday night's a tough one to pick. The Colts are six point favorites over the Vikings in Indianapolis. Indy's desperate for a win, and the Vikings are coming off a blowout loss at home to the Giants. I think Indy probably wins this game, especially with Randy Moss not likely to play, but I think Minnesota has the guns to keep it close. So I'll take the Vikes, plus the points. The over/under on this game, incidentally, is 58 and a half. That's a high-scorer. I'd probably take under if I were doing that....just so you know. 55.

Enjoy the games - the Jets are on in the New England area this week. You know where to find me if you need me - on the couch from 1-4. Thank goodness it's a 1 o'clock game - my wife seems to think people go out for their six-month wedding anniversaries, so I have to go out Sunday late afternoon. Hopefully it'll be a happy dinner....if the Jets lose, it'll be a miserable half-anni-versary.