HERE'S HOW IT IS TODAY

OK. So I'm rooting for Chad Pennington today. For one lonely NFL week out of my 30 years on this earth, I'm rooting against the Jets. Strangely, that means I'm rooting for the team I've had a burning hatred for every other year - the Miami Dolphins.

Now, with the strong winds in Buffalo today, anything could happen, and the Bills might beat the Patriots...and if that happens, and a Jets win puts them into the playoffs as a division champ, maybe I'll root for the Jets. But I can't say right now - I need to see what I decide when and if that situation presents itself.

I'm less angry with the Jets now than I was a week ago. I'm very angry, though, with Jets fans. That's much of the reason I want Pennington to win on the Jets' home field, to stick it to the people who cheered when he was hurt a year ago. And that's part of the reason I'm not going to be there - first of all because I'm not going through that hassle of attending a Jets game in New Jersey with zero parking for a team that will most likely lose (though I will do it next week for the playoffs if they win the division), but mostly because I don't want to be around more people booing Pennington.

A COUPLE OF OTHER THINGS:
-I apologize for the lack of images the past few days - I'm not at the home computer, so I'm going sans pictures.

-I thought it was funny the other day that the Southern Bureau suggested I root for the Panthers. Funny because here I am this week rooting for the Dolphins, who the Southern Bureau, if he rooted for any NFL team his entire life it was Miami, and he's suggesting I go to Carolina. For the record, I'm not looking for a new team. But I do enjoy occasionally rooting for Carolina anyway.

-I'm actually rooting against them today, now that I bring it up, because I want Atlanta to win the NFC South. One of my favorite stats in sports right now is that the team that finishes last in the NFC South one year wins the division the following year. And if Atlanta wins and Carolina loses, that will happen again.

Enjoy the final regular season week of the 2008 NFL season. And good luck, Chad Pennington.

STILL IN CONTROL....BARELY

The Jets should not have lost to San Francisco. They should not have lost to Oakland. The way they were playing at the time, they shouldn't have laid an egg against Denver. But they did.

And they shouldn't have beaten Buffalo the way they played on defense today. But they did.

In a game in which breaks went both ways (the Bills had a field goal bound in off the goal post, the Jets had a Bills' touchdown called back by a [legit] holding call; the Bills intercepted Brett Favre off a ball deflected by a player on the ground, the Jets got the fumble at a key time that they needed), the Jets got the biggest break.

With the Bills running every which way on the Jets (making me severely doubt their chances in the playoffs if they can hold on and make the post-season), they decided to throw the ball on second and five while they were running out the clock. It turned into the minor miracle at the Meadowlands, as Abram Elam blitzed (the first Jets blitz of the afternoon that I could remember), sacked J.P. Losman, and after someone fell on the ball and it squirted out, Shaun Ellis picked it up and dodged a tackle for the go-ahead touchdown.

The Jets actually picked off Losman again, but gave the ball back and had to hold on for dear life. That was one of the Jets' biggest problems in this game - failure to run out the clock. Granted, the first time they were pinned to their one, but instead of running the ball the Jets went to three passes - all incomplete, took no time off the clock, then punted, and proceeded to give up the Bills' go-ahead touchdown.

The other big problem was their inability to stop the run. Marshawn Lynch looked like the old Willis McGahee - the Bills back the Jets just couldn't bring down. Lynch had 21 carries for 127 yards. Their tackling, and really their defensive line against the Bills' O-Line, was atrocious.

But an ugly win is still a win. And there were some positives - Brett Favre found Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles again, connections the Jets will need to have post-season success. And they came out firing, scoring two touchdowns on their first two possessions, looking great doing so.

The Jets got no help from their two west coast foils from earlier this year (Oakland is getting smoked by New England and Miami beat the 49ers). But a couple of good things might have happened. One is that Seattle won, coming back from a deficit to beat the (similarly awful) Rams. Perhaps that sates the Seahawks, coming off a tough loss last week to the Patriots, heading into next week against the Jets, and the Jets can pounce on a falsely-confident team next week. Just a thought. The other thing is that the Bills showed they still have some life. Perhaps they can give the Patriots a run in Week 17 - which might just be what the Jets need, if they're not able to take care of themselves.

And that's the most important thing - the Jets still control their own destiny. They just need to keep winning - and help from Arizona (at New England) and Kansas City (versus Miami) next week wouldn't hurt. It might even result in a division championship before the last week of the season.

NFL WEEK 14 RECAP

I think this is the second time this year I've done the recap on a Wednesday - the first time with the next week starting tomorrow already. But I refuse to allow the week to go by unrecapped. So here it is:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 14: It was Dallas-Pittsburgh, and a close second was Tampa Bay-Carolina, which I called for as the best games a week ago. Add to that the huge backdoor cover by Pittsburgh - favored by 3, trailing by 10 with 7 minutes left, they not only tie the score, but avoid the push by an interception returned for a touchdown in the final two minutes. Woo!

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 14: It meant very little in the standings, but reminded many of why he was valued so highly not too long ago - Matt Schaub came back from injury to lead Houston to a road win in Green Bay, throwing for 414 yards and 2 touchdowns.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 14: How about Buffalo, trying to showcase the game (somewhat) internationally in Canada, losing 16-3. They've just fallen apart. Credit Miami's defense, I guess, holding Marshawn Lynch to just 31 rushing yards (QB J.P. Losman outrushed him by 22), but the Bills have been flat-out terrible. Of course, all that goes by the boards when they face the Jets on Sunday.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 15: Look no further than the Steelers for another great week - this week it's Pittsburgh-Baltimore, with first place in the AFC North on the line. I hate that the Ravens are good.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 17: Peyton Manning gets his turn against the Detroit Lions. How about 330 yards, 3 TD.
-Last Week: I said Drew Brees would have 4 TD, with 400 passing yards in a bounceback game. Not quite. He had 230, with 2 TD.

REFLECTIONS ON WEEK 12

This is not to be confused with the recap of Week 12, which will come tomorrow. But rather, it's a quick touch-base, based on what I wrote last week, about the teams the Jets (and Jets fans) need to worry about.

Titans: Well, the Titans just aren't very good. They're good, but they're not your typical 10-0 type of team. They're kind of like the Jaguars have been the past couple of years, where you see them in the playoffs, and you wonder how they went 12-4...a solid team, but they're not going to win the Super Bowl. Not sure they'll win a playoff game. They might still get the number-one seed in the AFC, though.

Steelers: The Steelers have a tiebreaker over the Jets, so they're still the number two seed right now. And they're kind of up and down - because their quarterback is so up and down. They're the playoff-tried team that probably poses the biggest threat to the Jets the rest of the way (assuming, as I will throughout this entry, that the Jets do what they need to do).

Broncos: I'll still worry about them until I see the Jets beat them next Sunday with my own two eyes (the Jets do not have a history of success against Denver), but I'm not too scared of them. I wrote about them earlier in the year as having one of the seemingly easier schedules in the league, and they haven't done much better than .500 with that schedule. So I think that pretty much sums things up about the Broncos.

Ravens: Until proven otherwise, I'm going to maintain that the Ravens' big win was more a reflection of the disaster that the Eagles have become than an accurate portrait of Baltimore. I think the Ravens are more the team that led 10-7 at the half (good, but not great), than the team that outscored their opponent 26-0 in the second half. But that win has them sitting pretty this week.

Patriots/Dolphins: A big win for New England, beating Miami. The Patriots also helped out the Jets by handing the Dolphins their second division loss. The Patriots moved themselves a notch ahead of Miami, but that can change back next week.

Colts: I think the Colts may have finished off San Diego Sunday night, and they're certainly playing themselves back into contention the past couple of weeks. Still, they're not looking like they used to look.

Bills: The Bills won a game they had to have, but they might have sealed their fate by losing to Cleveland last week.

RIP: Jaguars, Chargers: The Chargers, sadly, might still have a shot at their division, but I think they're done. The Jaguars are no longer a team to worry about - just playing out the string of a very disappointing season.

CONTROLLING THEIR DESTINY

I've been talking a lot about how the Jets can get their first-round bye, and I've also been trying to temper my enthusiasm, because we are still talking about the Jets here.

But every way I look at it the news is good.

Even with the Jets travelling to Tennessee to play the 10-0 Titans.

And this is the story of why you want to be in a spot where you can control your own destiny, and not have to rely on help.

If the Jets take care of business in December (2 away vs. the NFC West, 2 home vs. Buffalo and Miami), especially in the division games, they won't have to worry about much else.

They are 3-1 in the division right now, with their only loss coming to New England. The Patriots are 2-2 in the division, losing to the Dolphins and Jets. And the Bills, even if their Monday night loss to Cleveland didn't cripple them, are still on the outside looking in because of their 0-3 division record.

And believe it or not, for Jets fans, it will end up being better for the Jets if the Patriots beat the Dolphins on Sunday, bringing the Dolphins' division record to 2-2. Because even if the Jets lose to the Titans, and they fall into a tie with the Patriots for the division lead, the Jets own the tiebreaker. And they will, right up until the end of the season.

And the Patriots have the tougher schedule the rest of the way...so it probably wouldn't be a tie for long.

But it's nice to know that even if they match the Jets down the stretch - they won't be able to pass them.

BIGGEST GAME OF THE YEAR

If the Jets win today, they'll live to have another 'biggest game of the year'. If they lose, they'll play out the string of a meaningless season. And they have no one to blame but themselves.

Had the Jets beaten the Chargers, as most other good teams seem to be doing, or the Raiders, as everyone else is doing, they wouldn't be in such dire straits today. But they lost both of those games, leaving themselves no leeway in this division game.

The Jets will have no shot at winning a wild card spot when it comes to tiebreakers - as it most likely will, the way the AFC is shaping up. (Although, if they lose on Sunday, I'll undoubtedly start figuring out the scenarios they need to survive.) So it's all about the division, and with a loss already to the Patriots, the Jets need to beat the Bills twice (and later, the Patriots and Dolphins another time each).

They're also looking for help tonight. Hopefully a few hours after the Jets beat the Bills, the undermanned Colts can beat the undermanned Pats, and create a 3-way tie atop the AFC East at 5-3.

And then it'll be a whole new season, halfway through.

Or the end of the season. With half a season left.

NFL WEEK 6 RECAP

Weird week of NFL action, wasn't it? Lots of upsets and near-upsets. After the way Sunday went, I kind of sensed the Browns might pull it off on Monday night. But without having put any money where my mouth is on that one, I have no proof. So we'll move on:

BEST GAME OF WEEK SIX: By far the Cardinals-Cowboys game, which is the first time (I think) the game I called would be the best was actually the best. I missed the first half of this game because of how long it took to get back from the Jets game, but I heard from a couple of different sources that it was intense right from the beginning. The Cardinals just beat up the Cowboys (final tally: the star quarterback, the starting punter, and the second-string running back/kick returner, among other injuries), and pulled out a huge win. All told, as bad as the Jets' losses to the Chargers and Patriots are looking right now, the win against the Cardinals is looking pretty impressive.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK SIX: The Colts looked like the Colts again, and in particular, Peyton Manning had a typical day. Manning was 19-28 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns, as the Colts blew out the Ravens 31-3.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK SIX: I've already mentioned the disappointing week Brett Favre had, and the same could be said of the Vikings (Adrian Peterson in particular) and Bears (the Vikings barely got by the Lions, the Bears lost to Atlanta). But the Redskins laid the biggest egg. A week after being declared by everyone an up-and-comer in the tough NFC East, the Redskins showed why they're the team people are picking in that division to NOT make the playoffs. They gave the Rams their first win of the season, 19-17 St. Louis. (Similarly, the Panthers got crushed by the Buccaneers just when people were buying into them. I still think Carolina will win their division.)

BEST GAME IN WEEK SEVEN: I like a few on the schedule - Indy at Green Bay, Monday night's Pats-Broncos matchup, and New Orleans-Carolina. But the big matchup, I think, is San Diego at Buffalo. Big measuring stick game for each team, what with the Bills 4-1 (coming off the loss to Arizona) and the Chargers coming off their win against New England, unpredictable all season. The Bills' starting quarterback, Trent Edwards, has a concussion, so they might have to go with J.P. Losman - but they're home, and the way the Chargers have played defense this season, Losman would probably be OK. An interesting AFC matchup, with potentially huge ramifications for the Jets.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK SEVEN: Going on kind of a hunch here, I'm thinking the Giants bounce back huge against the 49ers at home next week. I think they'll be led by Brandon Jacobs, who will have 3 touchdowns on the ground, and maybe 117 rushing yards.
-Last Week: I said Jason Campbell would bounce back from a mediocre stat week to have 298 yards passing with 2 touchdowns by air, one on the ground. He threw for 208 yards in the Redskins' disappointing loss, and had 0 touchdowns.

SCORE-E-ALBA

The news on Sunday is that the Mets have now broken off all talks with Yorvit Torrealba, and that he might re-sign with the Rockies. It doesn't really matter where he goes, it just doesn't seem like he's coming to the Mets anymore.

This is both good news and bad news. Good news, because, as I said, I didn't really want him. I don't think he's the piece that's been missing to lead the Mets to the championship. Unfortunately (this is the bad news), there's no one out there who can...and that includes free agent catcher Paul LoDuca (he had his chance). I hope LoDuca doesn't end up coming back - he's just got way too much going on off the field. I think it affects what happens on the field. I don't even know who the other free agent catchers are - I should look into that and see who else fits with the Mets.

The Mets did make the Ramon Castro re-signing official, but I don't think he's an everyday guy - he's valuable because he is able to do what he does in spurts off the bench. I don't think he'd give you that over 130, 140 games.

The new talk now is that the Mets are very interested in signing David Eckstein and moving him to second base. They like his fire, and approach to the game - they feel he was the type of player that was missing down the stretch last year. I agree with that, because he certainly approaches the game the right way...but I don't think now is the time to pursue Eckstein. He's not the same player - he's more beat up, and I think he's on the down side of his career. I'd love to see him prove me wrong if the Mets sign him........but I'd rather see Luis Castillo as the Mets second baseman in 2008.

ON FOOTBALL:
-How do the Jets end up beating the Steelers? That frustrates me...I didn't get to see much football due to a variety of situations on Sunday. I wonder if I had been watching if the Jets would have played their usual brand of losing football.
-I take back what I said about the Bills and the Patriots. I suspect Marshawn Lynch wouldn't have made much of a difference in this game.

REVIEW: 'MICHIGAN VS. OHIO STATE: THE RIVALRY'

A couple of things I think I should make clear before I get into this review. Growing up in New York City and now living near Boston (and having gone to Boston University, whose football team was disbanded after my freshman year), college football was never much on my radar. Sure, I'd watch a game or two, the big games during the year, but my football attention was devoted to Sundays, not Saturdays.

As I grew older, though, I started to appreciate more about the game. I also developed attachments (and dislikes) for certain teams due to who I knew. I always rooted for Notre Dame - one of my cousins went there when I was in high school, and growing up, my dad rooted for Notre Dame, so I did too. I started to root for Tennessee the past few years because someone I met in the teaching profession was a Tennessee fan. When I worked at the CBS affiliate in Boston, one of my closest friends there was a Michigan fan, and seeing him live and die with these games made me root for Michigan to win. I root against Florida because of one of my college roommates (he lived and died, too, but I enjoyed it more when he died with the losses...unlike my CBS friend, who I much preferred to see live with the wins). I also root against Boston College, because of my BU ties. Then, I root for and against whoever tickles my fancy - right now I keep rooting against the number 1's and 2's until I get a team I like in there. I'm rooting for Kansas right now, just for some new blood. I think my college football interest is summed up in the fact that this is the first time I've written a blog extensively about college football. And I think it should be said that I root against Ohio State simply because of my CBS friend.

All of that said, I am much more interested in college football recently than I ever was. This is in part because of my participation in a Bowl pool at the end of the season, and I like to think that having watched a couple of games during the regular season increases my chances of doing well. (It usually doesn't.) But I'm looking forward to today's Ohio State-Michigan matchup. And in anticipation of the game, I watched the HBO Sports documentary "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry".

I need to learn my lesson - no matter what the subject, HBO Sports does a nice job. I should watch all of their documentaries. In spite of myself, I always feel myself getting choked up at a certain point, and I always end thinking that it was done very well (the same way I felt watching the documentary about the Cubs).

I went in hoping to learn more about a subject I knew little about, while hoping to be entertained, and getting glimpses of events I was familiar with. All were accomplished. The one complaint was that there was a big chunk (maybe 10 minutes) about the fans, which I could have done without. I realize how important that part is - if I was doing the documentary, I would also think the part about the fans was important to include...but as a viewer with no particular allegiances, I thought that segment was too long.

The most entertaining part was Desmond Howard, who struck the Heisman pose after scoring on a punt return in the Ohio State game. He went through his thought process about whether or not he should do it as he was running, and finally decided, "F___ it." He was an entertaining interview throughout the documentary.

A lot of time was spent on the Woody Hayes-Bo Schembechler connection. The Schembechler interview was recorded the day before he died...which was exactly one year ago as I write this. I also liked hearing about the 1950 game, which took place in a tremendous blizzard, which Michigan won, 9-3, scoring the game's only touchdown on a blocked punt. There were 45 punts in the game, some on first down, and Michigan didn't get a first down the whole game. Good stuff all around.

It made me wish I was a fan in some kind of rivalry like this - where one game means so much. The Mets have a rivalry with the Braves, but it's nowhere near this scale (and ranks waaaaaay down on any list of rivalries - it's not even in the top 10 of its sport). The Jets-Patriots rivalry is too recent...and still is more media-manufactured than anything else. The Jets-Dolphins are probable bigger rivals...but it's rare that both teams have been competitive at the same time. In hockey, I guess there's BU-BC, but the fact that it's hockey, in such an apathetic school as BU really has a negative impact. I guess I'll just continue to live vicariously through the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry. I'll be rooting for Michigan...but from where I stand, it sure hurts less if they lose.

NFL UPDATE: I'm very tempted to say the Buffalo Bills will hand the New England Patriots their first loss of the season on Sunday night...but I really think Marshawn Lynch being out of the lineup kills their chances. I'm hard-pressed, looking at their roster, to say they have someone who can be as explosive. So I'm afraid the Patriots will continue to march along undefeated.

SITE UPDATE: One drawback, I've just realized, of deleting the Jets entries so they reappear here is that I'm losing pictures when I do this. If you come across a post that has a red 'x' where a picture should be, please let me know, and I'll fix it.

TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS

The Jets need help this week. But I think they'll get the help they need this week, and then it's on them next week to win and get into the playoffs. Here's what I mean:

The Jets need to win both of their games, and finish 10-6. So they should really only be worrying about themselves (not something we have to worry about this week, since Monday night they are the last game beind played on the weekend). There are 3 other teams entering today's play at 8-6 - Cincinnati, Denver, and Jacksonville. (We're not going to worry about the 7-7 teams, because they need a ton of help, and they shouldn't factor in with the Jets winning both of their games.) Cincinnati and Denver are playing each other today. So one of those teams is going to be 8-7, one at 9-6. Jets fans, it doesn't matter who you root for in that one, as long as the winner of that game also wins next week, and makes the playoffs along with the Jets.

The Jaguars have a chance to really mess with the Jets' chances. They are playing the Patriots. All the Patriots have to do is win one of their final two games to clinch the division (they play at Tennessee next week, so it isn't totally out of the question that they may lose these two games...but it's highly unlikely). I think the Patriots win today, effectively ending the Jaguars' hopes (they play at Kansas City next week, but they would need a lot of help to get in, and if everything works out the way I'm rooting for, I don't see that help coming). But there's a chance the dominant Jaguars team that has showed up in certain weeks this season shows up today, upsets the Patriots, and throws a wrench in things.

So, if the Jets win this week, there's a chance they'll be 9-6, along with Denver or Cincy. And the other Denver/Cincy team and the Jaguars would be 8-7. So the Jets would only need to win at home next week against Oakland and get into the playoffs. To recap, Jets fans should be rooting for the Pats this week - write off the division. If it turns out the Patriots lose today, we'll re-evaluate next week's games...and be rooting big-time for Tennessee, and a division championship. Because if the Patriots lose today, that means the Jaguars win, and then the Jets will need a little help next week, I think.

As for Monday's game, I think we're past the days where the Jets choke in big games. (Unless the opponent is Buffalo, whcih, thank goodness, it's not.) I think the Jets will beat Miami something like 27-13, setting up a big weekend next week. (The other factor in the Dolphins game is that the Dolphins had some trash talk going on after the Jets' win over them earlier this year, saying stuff like, "we're the better team". The Jets haven't forgotten that - it's come up in the papers this week. That's good that the Jets are using that as some motivation, too. (Although the playoffs should be all the motivation they need, it never hurts to add a personal slight.)

PICKS: It's been a while, but since the season is almost over, I'm updating for you the standings in the johnnyjets pick 'em league:

1. Cuz: 115

2. Dave in Brighton 106

3. The Wife 105

4. Justin in NYC 105

5. johnnyjets 103

6. Southern Bureau 87 (I think he's given up)

Let's also keep in mind, though, that The Wife forgot to put her picks in one week, costing her big time. So her score is still with a 0 for one week. Pretty impressive.

Finally, this picture I came across earlier in the week, showing that for the Jets, it's not just about the football - it's about reaching out to that younger fan and establishing a connection that will last a lifetime:

CLOSE CALL

Jets 28, Bills 20 (NYJ: 2-1, BUF: 1-2)

The Jets made this one (again) a lot closer than it should have been. But they won, and they're 2-1, and depending on how the Patriots do in the Sunday night game, the Jets are going to be either a game out of first or in a tie for first.

I'm going to tell you something else - the Jets have a very real chance of being 5-3, maybe even 6-2, by the time their bye week rolls around. We'll get into that a little more as the weeks progress - but I have now shifted from hoping for a decent season to the possibility that the Jets can be one of the top teams in the AFC and make the playoffs.

The reason? They looked that good against Buffalo, which isn't a great team, but has been good enough the first couple of weeks. The Jets came out slow, which may have been by design, because the wind was blowing in their faces. And the Bills jumped out to a 7-0 and then 10-7 lead. But the Jets let Willis McGahee do their thing, and stopped every other facet of the Bills' game, which is exactly what their game plan should have been. (Everything fell apart in the final couple of minutes, but I now know to expect that the Jets aren't going to get anything easily this year.)

Willis McGahee got his 150 yards rushing, but the Jets kept him out of the end zone. And the Jets themselves moved the ball on the ground - nothing brilliant, but 74 yards on 24 carries - including 2 for 10 by Cedric Houston, who scored a late touchdown! (Derrick Blaylock was inactive Sunday.) Houston looked good - I'm going to start beating his drum again.

The Jets defense forced 3 turnovers - 2 fumbles by J.P. Losman, and an interception, and didn't really allow the Bills to move the ball in the air until the final two minutes. Chad Pennington was brilliant again. This was more of a typical Pennington performance - 19 of 29, for 183 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown came inside the Red Zone, where in his career Pennington is now 44 TD's to 0 INT's. And it came on a beautiful play fake - I love watching Pennington do those.

There were some really great signs of life in this ballgame. The Jets running game showed promise. Pennington made some great decisions. The defense played great when it had to. I don't know if it will be enough to beat Indianapolis next week (although I'll find a way to pick the Jets by Friday), but it may be enough to beat Jacksonville in two weeks. But again, I don't want to get too far ahead of myself - let's just enjoy a winning record.

THE PICK

388 yards, 2 touchdowns. 129.3 yards per game rushing. That's what Willis McGahee has done in his past three games against the Jets. We could be witnessing the beginning of a very bad relationship - the development of one of those players who just kills the Jets every time they play. Then there's the fact that the Jets gave up 145 yards rushing to the Patriots last week, and it could be a long day for the Jets run defense on Sunday.

But in the end, it might be a successful day. No, the Jets can't run the ball, but they might be able to eek out enough yards against Buffalo that they could open up the passing game for Chad Pennington a little bit. And with what Pennington's been able to do with no running game, a little bit of a running game could be huge for him.

The Jets may never shut down Willis McGahee. But they can let him do his thing and stop J.P. Losman. Last year the Jets went 1-1 against Buffalo with Vinny Testaverde and Brooks Bollinger at quarterback. The Bills aren't much better now than last year (although they have played two pretty good games) - I expect the Jets, based on what I've seen from them so far this year, to be able to go 2-0 against Buffalo in 2006.

This is a big measuring stick game for the Jets. The Bills hung with New England from beginning to end, while the Jets came alive against the Patriots in the second half. New England won both of those games. Buffalo upset Miami, who hasn't looked good yet this year, but was supposed to be good, and the Jets beat a bad Tennessee team. So if the Jets beat the Bills Sunday, I'll feel good about their chances against the Dolphins, and perhaps their chances at making a playoff run this season. If the Jets lose, it's looking like a 3rd or 4th place finish this season.

I really do think the Jets will win this game - give them a 27-13 win. I think they're that much better than Buffalo (although I haven't seen anything yet this year from the Jets to lead me to believe they should be able to blow anyone out). And it will be a good season.

PICKS: Somehow, Dave in Brighton pulled off a 12-4 week last week. He was shooting for 4 wins, he tripled his expectation. The Wife stayed consistent, going 9-7, holding off an 11-5 week by the Southern Bureau. And Justin in NYC is holding his own in the middle of the pack after a 10-6 week. Cousin Eddie fell, going 5-11, and I'm in last after a 7-9 week. Here's how it looks:

1. The Wife: 19 (total wins)
2. Southern Bureau: 17
3. Justin in NYC: 15
4. Dave in Brighton: 14
Cousin Eddie: 14
6. johnnyjets: 13

So, I'm going to hop onto this Vinny Testaverde train for a couple of stops. It helps that the Jets are playing Buffalo Sunday, and week one was a huge aberration for the Bills. I have no idea how they won that game at all - they actually looked OK. Last week, they beat the Dolphins. Even Chad Pennington's one arm beat the Dolphins. I think this is a great opportunity for the Jets to get some confidence back and beat a team soundly.

The game is in Buffalo, so that's a slight drawback - but it's only October - the Jets have struggled in Buffalo in much colder weather - I don't remember the last time they went to Buffalo in the early part of the season - actually, yes I do. Chad Morton returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, and the Jets won in overtime in the first week of the season a few years ago. I think that was one of Vinny's last starts - I think that was the year Pennington took over in Week 4. So the timing here is right for the Jets.

This week will also be a test for the Jets' running game. If they can't run on Sunday, they're not going to run all year. The Bills' run defense is one of the worst in the league. I'm banking on them getting the running game going, because I think Curtis Martin will somehow get to 1,000 yards again this year, and this is where it starts.

I think Vinny will again be OK, but not spectacular. The big difference right now between Vinny and Brooks Bollinger is that last week, receivers caught the ball for Vinny. If they can do that again, the Jets win again. The Jets are also getting three points. I say they win outright. Jets, 27-17. (Dave in Brighton and the wife also both pick the Jets.)

The standings in our picks league here thus far are:
Wife: 40-32-2 (10-3-1 last week)
Me: 36-36-2 (9-4-1 last week)
Dave: 23-33-2 (7-6-1 last week)

We all improved a lot last year (Despite being one game over .500 last week, Dave did improve a lot - it was his first week being over-.500).
The rest of our NFL picks for Week 6:

In Dallas, the Cowboys are three-and-a-half-point favorites over the Giants. I don't know how the Cowboys did what they did to Philadelphia last week, but I think with the extra week to prepare, the Giants come on strong and beat the 'Boys. I take the Giants getting the points. (Dave takes the Cowboys, wife takes the Giants.)

In Detroit, the Lions are one-point favorites over the Panthers. Are you kidding me? Are the Panthers that bad on the road? This is a steal - the Panthers win big. (All three of us take Carolina.)

The Falcons are 5-point favorites over the Saints, at the Saints (which I believe is San Antonio). I take the Falcons to win by at least a touchdown...so do the other two.

The Bears are 3-point favorites over the Vikings in Chicago. It's rough to look at the Bears being a favorite...but the Vikings are in rocky waters - no pun intended. Mike Tice is not a good coach - and I don't think he unites his team in the wake (again no pun intended) of this scandal. I take the Bears giving the points. (Dave takes the Bears, wife takes the Vikes.)

In Kansas City, the Chiefs are five-and-a-half point favorites over the Redskins. I just can't buy into the Redskins being good. It's in Kansas City, too, so despite the fact that Washington has a good run defense, I'm going with the Chiefs...but in the back of my mind I feel like Washington can win this game and prove to all the naysayers (like me) that they are actually good. (The wife is buying into the Redskins - she takes them and the points...Dave takes the Chiefs.)

In Tennessee, it's the Bengals giving 3 to the Titans. I think the Bengals bounce back from their loss last Sunday night to the Jaguars. Another tight loss for the Titans - I say about 24-20 Bengals. Dave and the wife also take Cincinnati.

Tommy Maddox will start for Ben Roethlisberger as Pittsburgh hosts Jacksonville. The Steelers are favored by three. I don't think the quarterback change makes much of a difference. I take the Steelers, as do the other two.

In Baltimore, the Ravens are five-and-a-half point favorites over the Browns. I don't see this one. I'm not sure how the Ravens can be favored, let alone by more than a field goal. They'll probably be lucky to score 5-and-a-half points. I take the Browns, getting the points. (Dave takes Cleveland as well, the wife takes Baltimore.)

Tampa Bay is a four-and-a-half-point favorite over the Dolphins in Tampa. I feel like the Dolphins are going to have a rough go the rest of the year, especially trying to balance their running attack between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Tampa is going to pounce on them, as revenge for last week's loss to the Jets. I take Tampa giving the points, as do the other two.

Denver is a three-point favorite over the Patriots. It's in Denver, and that's the only reason I'm picking the Broncos. I don't think the Broncos are very good, I don't like picking against the Patriots....but the Broncos have some kind of home field advantage out in Denver, and I have to take them. The other two homers take the Patriots.

In Oakland, it's the Chargers favored by two over the Raiders. Oakland is a home dog against the Chargers. I'm all over the Raiders in this one. The Chargers came close to beating the Steelers last Monday night - I actually didn't see the end of that game. I saw most of the game, though, and found myself not hating the Chargers as much as it seems like I would, based on the fact that I don't think they're going to be very good this year, and they're still playing O.K. But I'm picking the Raiders to beat up on the Chargers and prove me right. (Dave and the wife take the Chargers.)

Seattle, in Seattle, is giving nine-and-a-half to the Texans. The Texans are brutal, but the Seahawks aren't that great. It's tough to take the Seahawks giving nine-and-a-half, but I will, only because they're home. Dave also takes Seattle, not tempted by the big spread, but the wife takes Houston.

On Monday night, Indianapolis is giving 13-and-a-half to the Rams in Indy. The spread is a lot, especially considering who the Colts are playing. I'm taking the Rams, because even without Mike Martz, and probably Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, they're capable of scoring a lot of points. This will be a big test for the Indy Defense, and if I'm wrong, more power to the Colts. But I take the Rams getting the big points. Dave takes Indy, the wife takes the Rams.

Enjoy the weekend.

Bills 22, Jets 17

Who invited the 2003 Jets? A disaster in Buffalo, just like last year. The difference is, this loss doesn't put an end to the Jets' season...it just makes things difficult. How can things be difficult, with the Jets sitting at 6-2, you ask?

For starters, Chad Pennington left the game with a bruised shoulder - apparently he left the game on his own accord, telling Herman Edwards he felt like he was hurting the team more than helping them. Pennington should play next week....but on the chance he doesn't, the Jets' hopes ride on Quincy Carter. And next week begins the rough stretch on the Jets' schedule. Baltimore comes to town, and if the Jets couldn't move the ball against the Bills' defense, imagine the success they'll have against the Ravens' D!! And here's the worst part of the loss to the Bills - it's a division loss. So the Jets are now 3-2 in the division, while the Patriots are 3-0. So unless the Bills can upset New England next Sunday, the Patriots will be sitting pretty atop the AFC East.

Here is probably the most frustrating part of the loss to me. The wind was very bad in Buffalo, and it was supposedly going to wreak havoc with the passing game. But in the first quarter the Jets came out throwing, and moved the ball right down the field. The drive ended with a missed field goal, but later, when the Jets scored their first touchdown, they moved the ball 80 yards, and 74 of those yards were in the air. So, why, I ask you, would the Jets resort to running the ball exclusively in the third quarter? For example, on 3rd and 9, trailing 17-10? Why run!!??!?!? Throw the ball!! So frustrating. I suppose Pennington might have felt like his shoulder was preventing him from throwing in that situation...but still, the Jets weren't moving anywhere on the ground - air it out a bit.

What a horrible afternoon. In case you're wondering, it didn't ruin the six-month-versary...but it sure didn't help things. I need to grade some papers...we'll continue to delve into this disappointment throughout the week. Your e-mails tomorrow too.

Sunday, 1pm, Jets (6-1) at Buffalo (2-5)

The Jets have a real shot at being all alone in first place by the end of Sunday. (More on the Patriots-Rams in a little bit.) Buffalo was the site of the end of the Jets' season last year, and that will be in the forefront of some of the Jets' minds this weekend. (You may remember, the Jets went to Buffalo with a chance to win the rest of their games to make it into the playoffs in Week 14 last season, and laid an absolute egg...Chad Pennington just wasn't sharp all last year after coming back from the injury, and this was the first game that we really saw it. In very cold temperatures, Pennington and the Jets lost, 17-6, beginning and end-of-season losing streak.) I have a feeling the Jets will continue what they started against Miami last week and just blow the Bills out of the water. This one probably won't be as close as the first game between the two teams.

The Jets will most likely be without Wayne Chrebet, who has a back problem, and if that's the case, Jerricho Cotchery will start in his place. The Bills might be without Josh Reed, but that won't really matter. What might matter is there's a chance Troy Vincent will play for the Bills...I think that would be his first action all season. So he might be rusty, but if he's effective, that could be a problem for the Jets. I don't think Lawyer Milloy will play - he also missed the game last month.

The Jets are starting to talk Super Bowl again. Not in a cocky way, but the same way they were talking about it when training camp broke back in August. They're saying anything less than a championship this season would be a disappointment, and they're talking about how they've done what they've needed to do. They know that the toughest part of their schedule is still to come - but you've got to win the games they schedule for you, and the Jets have done that 6 out of 7 times (and hopefully 7 out of 8). Next week, the Jets host Baltimore - and it's all uphill from there. But let's focus on this week for now - the Jets are favored by three in Buffalo. I say, 24-10, Jets.

As for the rest of the schedule - I had my worst picking week by far last week - couple that with the fact that I had my blog entry erased, and last weekend was probably one of the worst of the year for me. (The Jets win was on Monday, so that doesn't count for the weekend.) Anyway, I was just 5-9 last week, 59-54-3 on the season. I need to pull away from the .500 mark, for entertainment purposes:

(Here's a joke I thought of last week, that I hope doesn't offend any of my readers. We just had Jehovah's Witnesses come to the door. That part is not a joke - that really just happened. But here's the joke part - at the school, we had a Halloween parade last Friday, but one of the kids in the class didn't want to participate because his mom felt Halloween was worshipping the devil. Which is fine, whatever. But the other teacher I work with said, 'I've seen that type of thing a lot, usually Jehovah's Witnesses don't celebrate Halloween.' So, sarcastically, I say, 'Yeah, I could see why they don't like Halloween. They're very uncomfortable with knocking on stranger's doors and asking for stuff.' Oh man, am I funny. Just had to share that. OK - onto the picks.)

Philadelphia is a pick-'em at Pittsburgh. The only good thing about my blog being erased last week is that I made a mistake saying Baltimore had a good shot at unseating both the Eagles, then the Patriots, from the ranks of the unbeaten in consecutive weeks. A miscalculation on my part. That would be the position the Steelers are in now. Incredible - both are home games, too. I am sold on the Steelers right now, and am convinced they'll be a problem for whoever they play the rest of the year (earlier this year I kept picking against them because I felt Roethlisberger would lose eventually). Well, I still think the Steelers are better than I've been giving them credit for, but I think the Eagles win a defensive struggle this week to get to 8-0. It'll be close, though, so I'm glad this is a pick-'em.

Detroit is a 3-point favorite over the Redskins, in Detroit. I just feel like if the Lions can beat the Giants in Giants Stadium, they can beat Washington in Detroit. (The Lions also came close to winning in Dallas, but close doesn't count, as we found out with the Jets versus the Patriots.) But I digress. The Lions are the pick, giving 3.

Dallas is a one-point favorite against the Bengals in Cincinnati. Dallas needs a win to get back to .500, and this is a winnable game for them. I'll take Dallas.

The Panthers are giving 7 to the Raiders in Carolina. Neither team is very good, and I don't think one team is better by a touchdown. So I'll take the Raiders getting the points, even though I think the Panthers will probably win.

Miami is a 3-point favorite over Arizona in Miami. Arizona doesn't seem to be able to win on the road, and Miami doesn't seem to be able to win at all. I think Arizona has a better chance at winning on the road than Miami does at all. Arizona, plus the points.

Kansas City is giving three in Tampa Bay. The Chiefs are on a roll, so are the Bucs, but the Chiefs are a better team, I think. I'll take the Chiefs, -3.

The Giants are nine-point favorites over the Bears at the Meadowlands. Interesting few weeks for the Giants - they've played three straight games against NFC North teams, one week removed from playing the Packers. (The Lions are in a similar boat, playing their third straight against NFC East teams. Not that it matters, I just noticed.) I think the Giants win this game, but I don't see them blowing anyone out (not counting the Vikings, who the Giants just seem to own.) So I'll take the Giants to win, but the Bears to cover the nine-point spread, somehow.

Seattle's a 6-and-a-half point favorite over San Francisco. Seattle should be able to win this one in San Fran, by a touchdown.

Another one out west, San Diego hosts New Orleans, and the Chargers are giving six-and-a-half. The Chargers are still streaking, and the Saints always disappoint. So I think the Chargers will cover.

The Patriots are a 2-point favorite over the Rams in St. Louis. I guess coming off a 21-game winning streak the Patriots get the benefit of the doubt, and that's why they're favored...but all that counts right now is that they've lost one game in a row...and I think it's about to become two. Ty Law is out 4-to-6 weeks, and there are rumblings he might miss the rest of the season. Things have broken well for this team so many times in the past that they might be able to win through the Law injury, and the fact that RB Corey Dillon might not play, but at least for this week, I think, they'll lose. The Rams are also 4-0 under Mike Martz in the week following a bye week...not that that makes a huge difference, it's just another stat I like. So I'll take the Rams getting points at home - this one'll be a high scorer. I'd probably also go over the 48 over-under if I were picking those too.

In Denver, the Broncos are six-and-a-half point favorites over the Texans. The Texans have been playing well, and I'm not sure they win this game, but they'll keep it to 3 or 4 points. So I'll take Houston.

Sunday night, in Baltimore, it's Cleveland getting six from the Ravens. The Browns always play the Ravens tough, but with Jamal Lewis coming back this week, I think I like the Ravens.

Monday night's a tough one to pick. The Colts are six point favorites over the Vikings in Indianapolis. Indy's desperate for a win, and the Vikings are coming off a blowout loss at home to the Giants. I think Indy probably wins this game, especially with Randy Moss not likely to play, but I think Minnesota has the guns to keep it close. So I'll take the Vikes, plus the points. The over/under on this game, incidentally, is 58 and a half. That's a high-scorer. I'd probably take under if I were doing that....just so you know. 55.

Enjoy the games - the Jets are on in the New England area this week. You know where to find me if you need me - on the couch from 1-4. Thank goodness it's a 1 o'clock game - my wife seems to think people go out for their six-month wedding anniversaries, so I have to go out Sunday late afternoon. Hopefully it'll be a happy dinner....if the Jets lose, it'll be a miserable half-anni-versary.

Let's get right to the mail, because we have an unfortunate situation here. I'm going to start with an e-mail from our own Mark in Florida, which somehow just appeared in my inbox this week, even though it's dated October 6th. You may remember I asked Mark to share his experience at Pro Player Stadium with us, since he attended the Jets-Dolphins game there last week. Well, I was wondering where his response was - turns out, it must have been stranded somewhere in cyberspace. Here's what Mark said:

"Like I said, I was at the game and it was hilarious. I would say there were at least 40% jet fans in the stands, but walking through the parking lot, it seemed like a lot more. It was great.
Some good fights in the stands. The Dolphins suck, and the Jets didn't play well, but you are right, a win is a win. And come December/January, all you need is about 10 wins give or take and you should be in the playoffs. In short, it does not matter how good or bad you look doing it.
Pennington did not look good, nor did the Jets receivers except for Chrebet. I will say it again, give lamont jordan the damn ball. I suggest the Jets go to a two running back set and keep the defense guessing a little. Lamont could be the king of the screen pass if Herm would give him the "green" light.
Mark"

Good pun. "Green" light. That sounds a lot like the atmosphere in Miami the past few years - more and more Jets fans - and when the Dolphins are winless, it doesn't help matters. Funny thing, Mark could have been talking about this past weekend's game - substituting Bills for Dolphins. The only difference is that Chad Pennington (aside from a couple of mistakes) looked better against the Bills than he did against the Dolphins. But the Jets receivers didn't look great, except for Chrebet, and LaMont Jordan was again a non-factor. I am not a huge fan of Jordan, personality-wise, but you're right, Mark, he would be a huge plus ripping off 60-yard screen passes for touchdowns every now and again. The only thing I'll say about his lack of playing time is perhaps he is being put in store for later in the season, this way the Jets will be pulling new plays out of their hats that we haven't seen (and neither have opposing defenses) all season. Just a guess...otherwise Jordan just really is in the doghouse, and we'll never be seeing him again outside of kick returns.

OK - back to the ol' Inbox - this e-mail actually traveled instantly, without a week's delay:

"Dear JohnnyJets,
As a Pats fan, I have to say I miss the era when the Jets could be
counted on to blow a game here or there.
Yesterday's a perfect example -- it would have been so easy to roll over after giving up 14 points
and the lead in the 4th quarter. What jumps out at you as different on this year's Jets team, so those types of mental errors aren't hampering the team?
Dave in Brighton."

Dave - good point. I think I forgot to mention this in the recap yesterday. The Jets reversed roles in Sunday's game. Usually, it's the Jets who rally to take a late lead, leaving time enough for the other team to have one last chance to score at the last second. The other team inevitably does, and it's the Jets who come up on the short end of the desperation pass. Sunday, of course, the Jets gave up the late touchdown, fell behind by a point, then came back down the field, kicked a field goal to take the lead back, then held off a drive by Buffalo in the final minute to win the game. And I've said it before, I'll say it again - the difference is Chad Pennington.

Vinny Testaverde is a good quarterback in many ways. But he's not very smart, which is a little surprising, considering he's in Bill Parcells' good graces - you wouldn't think Parcells would love an unintelligent player. But Testaverde didn't think quick when he was with the Jets. He was king of the "burn-a-timeout-with-11-minutes-to-go-in-the-first-quarter-because-you-can't-figure-out-which-audible-to-call". True, Testaverde led the Jets to his share of late comebacks, and the AFC Championship Game, but whenever Vinny was leading a late drive, he was always looking for help from the sideline. Now, I'm not saying that Pennington never looks to the sideline for help, but I think that's mostly to appease the coaches. Pennington could make things up as he goes if he has to, and I think he takes advantage of that from time to time. Pennington is also very, very smart. He was very nearly a Rhodes Scholar at Marshall. And he rarely makes a mistake on the field. That's why these past couple of weeks have been so surprising - Pennington hasn't played very smart football. But give him the ball with five minutes remaining and his team down by one, and Chad Pennington will take his team to victory nine times out of ten. (Maybe ten out of ten, I don't know.) That's what he did on Sunday - he's very cool under pressure, and makes smart decisions when it counts.

That's why Chad Pennington and Tom Brady are so similar. Brady has two Super Bowl championships to show for his intelligence, and hopefully Pennington is on his way to a first. We're kind of lucky to be seeing what we're seeing right now in the AFC East. Despite the fact that the Dolphins and the Bills are awful, the Jets and Patriots have two of the best quarterbacks in the league, and they're both young, and they're both not going anywhere for a long time. So the two, who are similar in so many ways (not the greatest arms, but they'll find a way to beat you; they're both very cool under pressure; and both very intelligent on the field) will be facing off for many years to come. (In one of those strange moments in life when you get a sign when you don't expect it, both my wife's Tom Brady bobblehead and my Chad Pennington bobblehead dolls are nodding in agreement as I type at the desk.)

So, Dave from Brighton, I think all that answers your question. Chad Pennington is the big reason, but also, it helps to have a guy like Herman Edwards on the sideline. Edwards is the type of guy who believes in his players, and I'm sure when the Bills took the 14-13 lead, he didn't get down on his guys - he probably built them up, and made them believe they'd be coming back. I love Herman Edwards. I should find a bobblehead of him.

In other news: Pete Kendall and Brandon Moore are both questionable, I think I saw today, for next Sunday's game against the 49ers. Hopefully their injuries are not too serious. The Jets are not very deep on the offensive line. They could probably get away with missing some key parts on Sunday, since San Francisco is not very good, and they lost one of their best defensive players for the rest of the season last weekend (Julian Peterson). But if these guys aren't healthy for the following week against the Patriots, that could be a big problem for the Jets....Just FYI (and for entertainment purposes only), the Jets are early 10-point favorites over the 49ers on Sunday. Yikes. I don't like that.

JETS 16, BILLS 14

When I read the New York Daily News this morning, and saw their preview predicting a Jets 16-13 win, I was thinking, what are you, crazy? Then I reviewed my pick, Jets, 28-17, and what I wrote on Thursday - that it would be a little closer than you might expect, but the Jets would still win comfortably. Well, it was A LOT closer than you might have expected...and the Jets won, but not comfortably. (Good prediction, Daily News.)

Again, the play-calling was way too conservative. There were a ton of opportunities in the game for the Jets to put the Bills away. Up 7-0 as halftime was approaching, the Jets had the ball at about the 15 yard line with 13 seconds left, and instead of taking a shot into the end zone to try to get a touchdown, the Jets let the clock run down, called timeout, then kicked a field goal to take a 10-0 lead into the half instead of 14-0. In the second half, the Jets had a couple of offensive series where they went three and out on a few running plays instead of spreading the field and jumping out to a bigger lead. That allowed the Bills to get back into the game.

Chad Pennington had a pretty good game statistically. Probably the quietest 300-yard passing game you'll see. He finished 31 of 42 for 304 yards. He threw 1 Touchdown and 1 interception, and the interception was not a smart play. Instead of taking a sack, Pennington tried to force a pass, which was picked off. (That INT led to the first Buffalo touchdown.) He did that again later in the game, but luckily completed the pass. This is the difference, though, between a Pennington-led Jets team, though, and any other Jets team. After the Jets fell behind 14-13, I felt they would be able to turn it on offensively, and come right back down the field to score and take the lead back. That's what they did. Pennington found everyone on the drive - Chrebet, Sowell, McCareins, and Becht (what a catch!) en route to Doug Brien's game-winning field goal. But again, this is something we've talked about, if the Jets can drive down the field at will when they need to win the game, they should be able to throw the ball a lot more earlier in the game to pad their lead a bit.

Curtis Martin rushed for just 77 yards - his lowest total so far on the year. Not a bad effort, though, considering the Bills' defense isn't too bad. The Bills, by the way, continue to hold the title of "Best Winless Team in the NFL". Another hard-luck loss for them.

The main reason the Jets won this game, though, was the defense. Jonathan Vilma again started at middle linebacker, and did another good job. He was involved in a lot of big plays. So was John Abraham. He's just getting better every week. I predicted two things for this game - the Jets would test the Bills deep on offense often (wrong on that count), and that the Jets would sack Drew Bledsoe a lot. They got him four times - and Abraham had 3 of those sacks. (Vilma had the other.) Abraham was constantly pressuring Bledose, and the 'D' knew just when to put pressure on him to force him to rush a pass. The only two touchdowns for the Bills came late in the game, which isn't good, but, seriously, the Jets should have been up by 24 points, not 13, when the Bills got those two TD's.

All that said, the Jets are 4-0. They're playing well enough to beat teams like the Dolphins, Bills, and 49ers, who they play next week. But the Jets have to work on a lot of things over the next couple of weeks if they want to be able to beat the Patriots on the 24th. They will not win that game unless they open up the offense more than they did on Sunday against Buffalo.

Tuesday's mail day - share your thoughts on Sunday's game, next Sunday's game, or anything else on your mind. Send your e-mails by Monday evening.

You may have noticed there was no Buffalo preview Thursday morning. My Buffalo fan didn't come through. Too bad. Hopefully we'll get something from him in time for the next game against the Bills.

The Jets have a score to settle with Buffalo. Hopefully they remember that come Sunday. Some of you may remember the massive e-mail I sent out last year prior to the Jets-Bills game (in Buffalo). It outlined the Jets' improbable, but quite possible, path to the playoffs. That path included the Jets winning all of their games - beginning with a win against Buffalo, in Buffalo. Chad Pennington proceeded to have one of his worst games as a pro, as part of what will go down as his worst season ever, and the Jets lost to Buffalo in a game they were never really able to get anything going.

Well, now it's the Bills' turn to try to stay alive (sadly for Buffalo, it's happening in Week 5 instead of Week 15), and the Jets can bury Buffalo. A win would improve the Jets to 4-0, and drop the Bills to 0-4. It would also help the Jets keep pace with the Patriots, who figure to beat the 0-4 Miami Dolphins this weekend in New England. And the for the Jets to bury the Bills, they need to stop Travis Henry.

Henry wasn't a major factor in last week's Bills game against the Patriots, but that game became more of a passers' game than running game. And Henry WILL be a factor this weekend, because he destroys the Jets. So if the Jets stop him, they'll win, because Drew Bledsoe can't beat the Jets. If the Jets can't stop Henry, watch out, because that's enough to help the Bills win.

Here are a couple of things working in the Jets' favor, though. Chad Pennington has been protected pretty well over the first few games. Last week, the Bills blitzed the Patriots on something like 29 of 50 pass plays. Tom Brady wasn't sacked once. So I'd expect more of the same this week against the Jets. The good news - I think the Jets can handle it. And even if Pennington has to get rid of some balls too early, I think the Jets' receivers will have a big day - the Bills are short two defensive backs this week - Lawyer Milloy and Troy Vincent. Santana Moss should burn Terrence McGee. (By the way - watch McGee on kick returns - he took one 98 yards against the Patriots last week. Actually, watch out for Nate Clements on punt returns too - he's explosive.) So I look for good things out of the Jets passing game, and Curtis Martin should be able to get 100 yards again, running a lot late in the game to help put things away.

Prediction: I'll go with the Jets, 28-17. A little closer than you might expect, but the Jets will still win comfortably.

So by taking the Jets to cover the 6-and-a-half point spread, I begin the week's picks. Last week I went 8-5-1 for the second consecutive week, and on the season I'm 33-25-2.

The aforementioned Patriots are favored by 12 and a half over the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins 'D' will keep this one fairly close, and that's a lot of points as it is. So I'll take Miami getting the points.

Pittsburgh is a 6-point favorite over Cleveland. Ben Roethlisberger is going to suffer his first defeat - I refuse the Steelers are this good. I don't care that Cleveland's on the road - I'm taking the Browns, getting 6.

The Colts are favored by 9 over the Raiders. This one's in Indy, and it shouldn't be very close at all. I'd take the Colts by more than 9.

The 4-0 (!) Falcons are home against the Lions. The Falcons are giving six and a half. I'll take the Falcons to keep it going another week. Why not. Falcons, giving six and a half.

New Orleans -3 over Tampa Bay. New Orleans is at home, so the fact this is such a small spread must be because of their running back situation. That's not enough to help Tampa. I take the Saints, giving 3.

The Cowboys are giving three and a half to the Giants. Like I've been saying, the Giants have been playing much better than I thought - I think they'll win in Dallas. I'll take the Giants, plus the points.

The Texans are home 'dogs, getting 4 from Minnesota. The Vikes are well-rested, coming off the bye week - they'll win by more than 4. I take Minnesota.

The Jaguars are 3-point favorites over the Chargers. This is a game where we'll see what the Jags are made of (if they're for real to be considered as a good team this year). This is a game the Jaguars should win, against a weaker team, and the Jaguars are coming off a tough loss. Despite the fact it's out west. I'm buying into the Jaguars this year...so I'll take Jacksonville, -3.

Denver, at home, giving five and a half to the Carolina Panthers. I'll take the Broncos.

Seattle is a 7-point favorite at home against the Rams. I think Seattle will win, but that seems like a big spread. I'll take the Rams getting the points, but there's a good chance this one will be a push.

San Francisco is giving 1 point to the Cardinals. This should be a pretty bad game. San Fran's probably favored because they are the home team - I'll take the home team. 49ers -1.

Washington and Baltimore Sunday night is a pick 'em. These two teams have been the toughest for me to pick all season. I'll go Washington, because they're home, and I hate the Ravens.

Finally, Green Bay Monday night is favored by 3 over Tennessee. I'm not sure what the injury situations are in this game, but I think Brett Favre is playing, and I have no idea about Steve McNair. I have a feeling he wouldn't miss a Monday nighter, but this one's in Green Bay, and Green Bay took a tough loss last week - they're not going to lose this one at home too. I'll take the Packers, minus-3.

AFC EAST

New England: 3-0
NY Jets: 3-0
Buffalo: 0-3
Miami: 0-4

What a weird division this year. The Jets are legitimately a good team, I hope people are now buying what I've been selling for the past few weeks. The Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions, and have won 18 straight games, so I have to give them their due. The Bills, and the Dolphins, though, are two of the worst teams in football. Well, at least record-wise.

I don't think it's fair to call the Bills bad. They aren't good, but they're not downright bad. They're by far the best 0-3 team in the league (how's that for a backhanded compliment). The Bills lost in Week 1 to the Jaguars on a last-second touchdown pass by Byron Leftwich that was barely caught in the back of the end zone. Final score: 13-10. In Week 2, the Bills can't get any offense going out west against Oakland, and fall. Final score: 13-10. After a bye in Week 3, the Bills take on the Patriots in Buffalo, looking to keep the Pats from winning a record-tying 17th game in a row. Final score: Patriots 31, Bills 17. The Bills didn't look like a bad team against New England. They looked like a flawed team, and the Patriots were able to expose those flaws at key moments.

That's what the Patriots do. They figure out the flaws, expose them, and then pounce. So many of the games they've won on their current winning streak have come as the result of the one big play that turns the game in their favor. Last Sunday, it was pressuring Drew Bledsoe, and that pressure finally resulted in the turnover that put the game away - a fumble returned for a touchdown. The Patriots should win this weekend at Miami. The next weekend, they host the Seahawks. Seattle is 3-0, and I'll talk more about this potential matchup next week...there's a good chance it features two undefeated teams.

Miami stinks. We established that fact in yesterday's posting, and if you have seen them play at all this season. But here's an interesting thing: Ricky Williams may want to play again this season. He's reportedly trying to get a hearing with the NFL so that he might get back to the team this season. This opens up a huge can of worms, because he's facing a drug suspension, which probably can't be enforced retroactively to the first few games of the year, and then there's the whole issue of whether the Dolphins want Ricky back. Management will probably take him back, because they're desperate. But I doubt he will be well-received by teammates, coaches, and fans.

So that's the AFC East rundown, for now. The Jets host Buffalo on Sunday. I'll try to get a Bills preview posted for Thursday, courtesy of a guest writer who grew up in Buffalo and remains a lifelong Bills fan. If I don't get that, there might not be a Bills preview, because I'm working a late night on Wednesday.