Thursday, October 07, 2004

You may have noticed there was no Buffalo preview Thursday morning. My Buffalo fan didn't come through. Too bad. Hopefully we'll get something from him in time for the next game against the Bills.

The Jets have a score to settle with Buffalo. Hopefully they remember that come Sunday. Some of you may remember the massive e-mail I sent out last year prior to the Jets-Bills game (in Buffalo). It outlined the Jets' improbable, but quite possible, path to the playoffs. That path included the Jets winning all of their games - beginning with a win against Buffalo, in Buffalo. Chad Pennington proceeded to have one of his worst games as a pro, as part of what will go down as his worst season ever, and the Jets lost to Buffalo in a game they were never really able to get anything going.

Well, now it's the Bills' turn to try to stay alive (sadly for Buffalo, it's happening in Week 5 instead of Week 15), and the Jets can bury Buffalo. A win would improve the Jets to 4-0, and drop the Bills to 0-4. It would also help the Jets keep pace with the Patriots, who figure to beat the 0-4 Miami Dolphins this weekend in New England. And the for the Jets to bury the Bills, they need to stop Travis Henry.

Henry wasn't a major factor in last week's Bills game against the Patriots, but that game became more of a passers' game than running game. And Henry WILL be a factor this weekend, because he destroys the Jets. So if the Jets stop him, they'll win, because Drew Bledsoe can't beat the Jets. If the Jets can't stop Henry, watch out, because that's enough to help the Bills win.

Here are a couple of things working in the Jets' favor, though. Chad Pennington has been protected pretty well over the first few games. Last week, the Bills blitzed the Patriots on something like 29 of 50 pass plays. Tom Brady wasn't sacked once. So I'd expect more of the same this week against the Jets. The good news - I think the Jets can handle it. And even if Pennington has to get rid of some balls too early, I think the Jets' receivers will have a big day - the Bills are short two defensive backs this week - Lawyer Milloy and Troy Vincent. Santana Moss should burn Terrence McGee. (By the way - watch McGee on kick returns - he took one 98 yards against the Patriots last week. Actually, watch out for Nate Clements on punt returns too - he's explosive.) So I look for good things out of the Jets passing game, and Curtis Martin should be able to get 100 yards again, running a lot late in the game to help put things away.

Prediction: I'll go with the Jets, 28-17. A little closer than you might expect, but the Jets will still win comfortably.

So by taking the Jets to cover the 6-and-a-half point spread, I begin the week's picks. Last week I went 8-5-1 for the second consecutive week, and on the season I'm 33-25-2.

The aforementioned Patriots are favored by 12 and a half over the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins 'D' will keep this one fairly close, and that's a lot of points as it is. So I'll take Miami getting the points.

Pittsburgh is a 6-point favorite over Cleveland. Ben Roethlisberger is going to suffer his first defeat - I refuse the Steelers are this good. I don't care that Cleveland's on the road - I'm taking the Browns, getting 6.

The Colts are favored by 9 over the Raiders. This one's in Indy, and it shouldn't be very close at all. I'd take the Colts by more than 9.

The 4-0 (!) Falcons are home against the Lions. The Falcons are giving six and a half. I'll take the Falcons to keep it going another week. Why not. Falcons, giving six and a half.

New Orleans -3 over Tampa Bay. New Orleans is at home, so the fact this is such a small spread must be because of their running back situation. That's not enough to help Tampa. I take the Saints, giving 3.

The Cowboys are giving three and a half to the Giants. Like I've been saying, the Giants have been playing much better than I thought - I think they'll win in Dallas. I'll take the Giants, plus the points.

The Texans are home 'dogs, getting 4 from Minnesota. The Vikes are well-rested, coming off the bye week - they'll win by more than 4. I take Minnesota.

The Jaguars are 3-point favorites over the Chargers. This is a game where we'll see what the Jags are made of (if they're for real to be considered as a good team this year). This is a game the Jaguars should win, against a weaker team, and the Jaguars are coming off a tough loss. Despite the fact it's out west. I'm buying into the Jaguars this year...so I'll take Jacksonville, -3.

Denver, at home, giving five and a half to the Carolina Panthers. I'll take the Broncos.

Seattle is a 7-point favorite at home against the Rams. I think Seattle will win, but that seems like a big spread. I'll take the Rams getting the points, but there's a good chance this one will be a push.

San Francisco is giving 1 point to the Cardinals. This should be a pretty bad game. San Fran's probably favored because they are the home team - I'll take the home team. 49ers -1.

Washington and Baltimore Sunday night is a pick 'em. These two teams have been the toughest for me to pick all season. I'll go Washington, because they're home, and I hate the Ravens.

Finally, Green Bay Monday night is favored by 3 over Tennessee. I'm not sure what the injury situations are in this game, but I think Brett Favre is playing, and I have no idea about Steve McNair. I have a feeling he wouldn't miss a Monday nighter, but this one's in Green Bay, and Green Bay took a tough loss last week - they're not going to lose this one at home too. I'll take the Packers, minus-3.

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