REFLECTIONS ON WEEK 12

This is not to be confused with the recap of Week 12, which will come tomorrow. But rather, it's a quick touch-base, based on what I wrote last week, about the teams the Jets (and Jets fans) need to worry about.

Titans: Well, the Titans just aren't very good. They're good, but they're not your typical 10-0 type of team. They're kind of like the Jaguars have been the past couple of years, where you see them in the playoffs, and you wonder how they went 12-4...a solid team, but they're not going to win the Super Bowl. Not sure they'll win a playoff game. They might still get the number-one seed in the AFC, though.

Steelers: The Steelers have a tiebreaker over the Jets, so they're still the number two seed right now. And they're kind of up and down - because their quarterback is so up and down. They're the playoff-tried team that probably poses the biggest threat to the Jets the rest of the way (assuming, as I will throughout this entry, that the Jets do what they need to do).

Broncos: I'll still worry about them until I see the Jets beat them next Sunday with my own two eyes (the Jets do not have a history of success against Denver), but I'm not too scared of them. I wrote about them earlier in the year as having one of the seemingly easier schedules in the league, and they haven't done much better than .500 with that schedule. So I think that pretty much sums things up about the Broncos.

Ravens: Until proven otherwise, I'm going to maintain that the Ravens' big win was more a reflection of the disaster that the Eagles have become than an accurate portrait of Baltimore. I think the Ravens are more the team that led 10-7 at the half (good, but not great), than the team that outscored their opponent 26-0 in the second half. But that win has them sitting pretty this week.

Patriots/Dolphins: A big win for New England, beating Miami. The Patriots also helped out the Jets by handing the Dolphins their second division loss. The Patriots moved themselves a notch ahead of Miami, but that can change back next week.

Colts: I think the Colts may have finished off San Diego Sunday night, and they're certainly playing themselves back into contention the past couple of weeks. Still, they're not looking like they used to look.

Bills: The Bills won a game they had to have, but they might have sealed their fate by losing to Cleveland last week.

RIP: Jaguars, Chargers: The Chargers, sadly, might still have a shot at their division, but I think they're done. The Jaguars are no longer a team to worry about - just playing out the string of a very disappointing season.

MID-SEASON UPDATE

With the season half-over (more so now, I guess, that the Denver-Cleveland game is well underway), I'm breaking out the baseball season analysis tools to break down the mid-year point of the NFL season. And the Jets.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: I think the Jets secondary deserves this nod - the likes of Kerry Rhodes and Darrelle Revis have been playing very well. The Jets aren't getting beat long - it's the short stuff that turns into big plays that ends up getting them. And the secondary has pulled down its share of interceptions.

MOST SURPRISING: Maybe the fact that the Jets have a legit shot at winning the division. And in Week 9 and 10 it's in their hands. A win against the Rams sets them up for a shot at taking over first place by themselves the week they play New England. Not sure even in my best-case-scenario that I saw that coming.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: I'm not sure this is least impressive or most frustrating, but it's the tackling on defense. This seems to plague the Jets year after year (and truth be told, it's other teams too that I see week in and week out where the tackling is poor), but with the Jets it seems worse. It seems like the game-changing plays could be stopped if someone could just wrap up the opposing player.

MOST DISAPPOINTING: Definitely the offensive line. The reason the Jets no longer have Chad Pennington is because they couldn't protect him and he nearly died playing quarterback for the New York Jets. Brett Favre is the QB now, and the only difference is he's more durable. He's taken the same amount of hits, if not more, and is getting very little protection. You would have hoped the line would gel by now - that doesn't seem to have happened.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: The New York Giants, easily. Yes, they're Super Bowl champs, but did anyone think they'd come out of the gates at 7-1? I picked them for the post-season, so I'm not shocked they're holding their own in the division, I'm just shocked at how well they've been doing that.

MOST SURPRISING: The most surprising teams are the Tennessee Titans and the Atlanta Falcons. Neither team, the Falcons mostly, did I expect to be in any sort of playoff run, let alone have the Titans be 8-0 and the Falcons a game off the pace in their division. That NFC South is pretty wild from year to year - I love how the last place team nearly always finishes in first place the next year. That's reason enough to root for continued success for the Falcons.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: The obvious answers are the winless Lions, at 0-8, and the 1-8 Bengals. Or the injury-riddled Colts or Seahawks. But the winner is a team that hasn't dealt with much of that and is still struggling in a year where it's there's for the taking - the San Diego Chargers. And that's why that Jets loss to them looks worse and worse every week.

MOST DISAPPOINTING: A lot of people will probably tell you the Cleveland Browns are the biggest disappointment, but I wasn't buying into them this year. Were you? Though (obviously, since this is a mid-season update) we're only halfway through, the 3-5 posted by the Jacksonville Jaguars has to be the most disappointing thing about the NFL so far. The way they ended last year was so promising - I thought they were a lock for a playoff spot. The fact that the Jets are two games better than them is surprising to me.

COMING UP: Before the games get underway on Sunday I'll preview the Jets' second half.

NFL WEEK 3 RECAP

First, a word on the Jets. They play the Chargers tonight, out in San Diego, where they have had an inordinate amount of success in recent years - winning games you might not have expected them to (the blowout win that started the Jets' streak under Pennington in 2002 and the playoff win in 2004 come to mind).

I don't know that the Jets will have that same kind of success under Favre. But I do know that a Jets win will bury San Diego at 0-3 in a very tough AFC. And that would be awesome.

Luckily, since the baby was born this weekend, I do not have to worry about waking up for school tomorrow...so I'm up for the entire Monday Night football game. And the Mets-Cubs, of much more immediate importance (the rest of the week will focus on the Mets). Here's my Week 3 recap:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 3: OK - I didn't see all of the football games on Sunday, with the new baby and all. I did see a lot, just not my usual hectic watching of many channels at once (I had guests, and we watched most of the Giants and most of the Mets games. The channel-flipping isn't for everyone.). But the best of Week 3 just might have been Jacksonville beating Indianapolis on a last-second field goal, 23-21. The Colts looked much better Sunday than they had, especially in the second half, and Jacksonville looked impressive marching down to the win. To be honest, there were a lot of close games on Sunday, but none that were great. I think this was the best of those.

BEST PERFORMANCE IN WEEK 3: I think this would have to be the Miami Dolphins. First of all, they said all week they were going to attack the first-time starter, Matt Cassel, then they came out and did it. The Jets' defense sat back and waited for him to beat them. The Dolphins went out and got him. Good for them. But even more than that, they used a creative offensive game plan to put up some points, and then they blew the Patriots out. If the Dolphins had been that creative on offense against the Jets in Week 1, they would have blown the Jets out too. Chad Pennington managed the game well, but it was Ronnie Brown who torched the Patriots' defense, and shares the credit with the Miami defense for the upset win.

WORST PERFORMANCE IN WEEK 3: Again, a lot of close games in Week 3 - and a lot of them shouldn't have been close. But I think the worst performance was the Pittsburgh offense against the Eagles. You have to give the Eagles' defense credit, because they put up some great numbers (2 forced fumbles, one interception, 9 sacks). But Ben Roethlisberger looked like the bad-decision-making Roethlisberger of a couple of years ago instead of the one who put up impressive numbers last year, and Willie Parker ran for just 20 yards. All they managed was 6 points on two field goals. The Steelers should never be the team that scores the lowest amount of points in the NFL in a given week...but they were in Week 3.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 4: Bye weeks start next week, so there's a smaller schedule...and nothing is jumping out at me in a huge way...but I'm thinking I'll keep an eye on Minnesota at Tennessee. The Titans are 3-0. The Vikings are lucky to be 1-2 - the Panthers looked bad on Sunday, and sort of handed the Vikings one. The Vikings were everyone's (except me) favorite dark horse entering the season, and now Gus Frerotte is their quarterback. A win and everyone's back on their bandwagon. The Titans now have Kerry Collins instead of Vince Young, and a 4-0 start would put some distance between them and second place. Tennessee is a tough place to play. I bet the Titans win. Also, the Bills should go to 4-0 in St. Louis.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 4: Carolina, as I mentioned above, looked bad against Minnesota. Jake Delhomme was 17-29 for 191 yards. I think he and the Panthers rebound in a blowout of Atlanta, in Carolina. I'll go with 265 yards and four passing touchdowns for Delhomme in a 38-13 win.
-Last Week: I gave you Eli Manning for 320 yards and 3 TD's. I also went extra and gave you the Giants, Bills and Patriots going to 3-0. I should have stayed away from New England...and the Bills and Giants games were much closer than I expected. Manning was good, but his receivers didn't have the days I though they would - he had just 1 touchdown and 289 yards.

PLAYOFFS ROUND TWO ROUNDUP

The conference championship matchups are set. Basically, with the Colts' loss, it's going to be the Patriots against either the Packers or the Giants in the Super Bowl...and that means I have to root against the Packers, which stinks, since they are my secondary team again this year (for matchup reasons - Packers-Patriots has already happened, but you should know that if you're reading this). I think it's unlikely the Patriots will lose...but at least they're the early game next Sunday, and if they do, I can root for Green Bay late. (Truth be told, I wouldn't mind rooting for the Giants, either - they've grown on me this year - I'll get more into that later in the week.) Here's the recap:

That Green Bay game went sort of how last week's playoff games went. It turned out the way I expected (Green Bay blowout), but took a little while to develop. The Seahawks jumped out to the 14-0 lead, and I started to think there was something to all of these people picking Seattle to win in Green Bay. Then the Packers came back, and Brett Favre just looked like there was no way he was going to lose. It was like the dominant Packers of old. Favre has never won in Dallas, so he and the Packers look like the biggest beneficiaries of the Giants win.

I was disappointed by the Jaguars' performance. Their offense played much better than I expected, and their defense was underwhelming. I thought they would beat up the Patriots more than they did...and now the Patriots head into the conference championship game against a weak opponent, and they're sitting pretty. There's also a chance there might be a storm in New England next week, though I don't know the details. San Diego in New England, and possibly in a storm...I don't like their chances there.

The Colts ought to be ashamed of themselves. There's no call for losing this game. I know Antonio Gates played, which makes a difference for Philip Rivers, but this was a game they should have won. You know what it is? It's bad karma because Bob Sanders acted like a jerk to Nate Kaeding after he missed that field goal (how bad is Kaeding in the post-season - kicking like that in New England isn't going to get you to the Super Bowl). I don't care if you did go to college together - that's bad sportsmanship. (And I should know - I won my Little League sportsmanship award a few times.) I'm not surprised Billy Volek was effective - hasn't he done this type of thing before, at least in the regular season? I feel like he may have even done it in the playoffs - but I can't remember right now and I have more pressing concerns before bed than looking that up. This type of game makes gambling on games (or participating in the type of pool I'm in) a bummer, because I'm sitting there rooting for different scenarios to work out so I can win a bet...and then I realize at the end that while that was going on, I missed a pretty good football game. One last thing about San Diego - they had some legitimate gripes about some of the officials' calls in that game. It seemed Norv Turner was complaining about every call - but I think he had the right to.

The Giants did what I thought they could do. Towards the end of this game, I was actually rooting for the Cowboys to score a touchdown, so the Giants could come back and kick a field goal, force overtime, and I could get the over....then they showed Jerry Jones on the sideline. And I wanted the Giants to win........bad. And there was nothing more rewarding for me, someone who lost his over/under bet, so see Jerry Jones standing there at the end of the game, with his arms crossed, looking like a loser. That was great. I don't know that the Giants continue their Pittsburgh Steelers-type wild card run next week in Green Bay - but I think it will be an entertaining game.

Here's who did what this week (though you may have picked winners, I'm counting everyone's results against the spread, because that's how we do it around here):

PICKS
Johnnymets: 2-2
Justin from NYC: 1-3
Southern Bureau: 1-3
The Wife: 1-3
Dave in Brighton: 0-4

OVER/UNDER
Southern Bureau: 3-1
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
The Wife: 2-2
Johnnymets: 1-3

Chargers-Patriots, Giants-Packers in the conference championship games. Interesting matchups. Make your picks in the comments section on Friday.

3 Things

3 Things From My Saturday of Playoffs Football

1) I never really knew how I felt about David Garrard. I always liked Byron Leftwich, because of the Marshall connection with Chad Pennington, and because of his fighting-through-injury performance in one of his college games, where he played with, I think, what turned out to be a broken leg and drove his team to a comeback win, and couldn't even run down the field, and had to be helped by his offensive lineman to get down the field.

So there were a couple of feelings about Garrard - one was not caring a thing about him, the other was anger because I liked Leftwich. 'Not caring much' won out, because I didn't like Leftwich too much.

But then I saw James Brown's interview with Garrard on the CBS pregame (the interview started at 8:01 of what was supposed to be an 8 o'clock game, so I imagine most everyone saw the interview). And it was very good - Garrard seems very likeable, no? So I think I'll be rooting for him for a while...although his likeability took a pretty big hit after his first quarter fumble against New England. (James Brown looked ridiculous in those cutaways during the interview, incidentally. That's why if I had made it as a reporter I would have taken a very active role in the editing process.)

(Just looked up the Byron Leftwich info - broken shin, and they lost the game...but it was a valiant effort nonetheless.)

2) These Budweiser commercials where that dude keeps talking about the Budweiser process annoy me. I don't like them, and they're not going to grow on me. Boring.

3) Watching the Packers win their playoff game really brought me back to the early 1990's. You may remember that's when the Jets were the pits, and I was always left without a team to root for come January. So I adopted the Packers, partly because I liked Brett Favre, partly because I liked the green and yellow (this was one instance where I could really pick a team based on anything, and team colors weighed in heavily). So I rooted for the Packers, and it was kind of neat for me when they beat the Patriots in 1996. Well, this year I'll be rooting for the Packers again, and their win was pretty fun, in the snow and all. (The only thing I'm not rooting for is the Patriots-Packers rematch, because you know how I feel about rematches. We'll get to that next week as the teams shake out.)

I'll recap the weekend games Sunday night. Terrell Owens is reportedly 100% for the game against the Giants...I don't know if that changes my feelings on the game. I don't know if that's a lie to make him seem more threatening, or the injury was a lie to get him some extra rest.

THE PICKS - PLAYOFFS WEEK 2

Have you seen this week's spreads? I don't know what to make of them, except for the fact that when I look at them, it convinces me that for the most part, as far as putting down money, I'm going to be sticking to the over/unders this weekend. (Remember, when I say "putting down money, I'm referring to my participation in the pool on officefootballpool.com, where I am in first place after one week, incidentally, and from where I am taking these spreads. I earned my week in first by turning $250 into $650 last week - fake dollars.)

Here's what I think will happen this week:

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY (GB - 7.5, 41.5)
Seattle was less-than-convincing last week at home against the Redskins. No chance on the road in Green Bay this week. Their running game is awful, and the Packers defense is pretty good. I can see this game going a few different ways. I could see 24-17, or 24-20 Packers, where the Pack just squeak by. (Therefore, I won't put money on that spread...I do like the over.) I think it might be close, then the Packers will pull away late:


JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ENGLAND (NE - 13.5, 49.5)
I've been saying it for weeks. The Patriots are ripe for the picking. They haven't been beaten yet, though, and the near losses have probably just made them stronger. The bye week helps, too. And I don't think the Jaguars are the team to get over the "Beating the Patriots" threshold. They'll pound New England. They'll beat them up. The Patriots will lose some players to injury. And I wouldn't be shocked if they lost...but I think the Jaguars will soften them up enough for the Colts next week. All that said, I don't think I'm going to touch this game at all with money, unless I win huge in the early game. Here's my pick:


SAN DIEGO AT INDIANAPOLIS (IND -8.5, 46.5)
This is sort of a tune-up game for the Colts. I see no way San Diego can win, with the way they've been playing, and then throw in the fact that Phillip Rivers doesn't have Antonio Gates. I think the Colts win easy, though I don't know how confident I am in that spread and over/under (although I did give this game my favorite football picking score of all time):


NEW YORK AT DALLAS (DAL -7.5, 47.5)
I hate that this is the last game, because it's the only one I'm positive about putting money on and getting a win. I think this is a 3-point game either way, so I love the Giants getting more than a touchdown. Love it. I think they're playing great football - and they've been proving me wrong all year, so I've finally jumped on the bandwagon (and since this is the Giants we're talking about, that means it's time for them to crap the bed). Eli Manning suddenly has one more playoff win than Tony Romo, Terrell Owens isn't a hundred percent - everything looks like it's pointing to a Giants upset. I know the Cowboys put up lots of points on the Giants this year when they took both games...but it's the Giants' turn. Watch it happen (or at least watch them cover):


Here's where we stand in the picks after last week - if anyone new wants to jump on board, leave your picks in the 'comments' section, and I'll extend the graph to include winning percentage.


Enjoy the football.

A QUICK RECAP

Do you feel like I do? Did those playoff games turn out the way you expected them to, except not really go the way you expected them to?

I'll break it down winner-by-winner:

In my opinion, Seattle should have dominated this game from the get-go. Instead, they controlled the game, though they couldn't get anything huge going, until the Redskins shocked them with two quick scores to take the lead in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks then turned it into the rout it should have been from the beginning of the game, with a couple of defensive scores (and a back-door cover and back-door over).

A lot of people were high on Jacksonville going into this game - I just never got that way. If Pittsburgh had kicked an extra point or two, there would have been overtime, and who knows what would have happened (they at least would have covered the point-and-a-half with one extra point - my only loss against the spread this weekend). I will say this, with the Chargers win, the fact that Jacksonville now goes to New England gives the Patriots a tougher matchup than if it had been Tennessee.

The Giants game was, surprisingly, the least surprising game of the weekend. It was pretty straightforward - after the Buccaneers scored early in the game, the Giants rattled off 24 unanswered, and never looked back. I just didn't buy this Tampa team, and the way the Giants had played on the road, it seemed likely they would get the win. I don't want to tip my hand too soon...but with the Giants going to Dallas, a division foe they are familiar with, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants advance.

If you are a Chargers fan, you are breathing a tremendous sigh of relief right now. That did not go according to plan. The Chargers were lucky to win the game, let alone cover the 9-and-a-half point spread. A disgusting effort by San Diego at home. LaDainian Tomlinson is becoming an Alex Rodriguez type - he just doesn't perform in the post-season.

There was no picture to illustrate my point, so I'll just throw this out there here - Jack Del Rio of the Jaguars gets the "Best Dressed" award for the coaches this week. That leather jacket was sharp on Saturday night. (You might remember that Del Rio cares how he looks - he appealed to the NFL along with Mike Nolan for the coaches to be able to wear suits on the sidelines like the old days.)

Thanks for making your picks - here's the way it stands (I'll break it down into picks and over/unders, because apparently Justin from NYC doesn't 'do' over/unders):

PICKS
Justin from NYC: 4-0
Johnnymets: 3-1
Southern Bureau: 3-1
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
The Brother-in-Law: 2-2
The Wife: 1-3

OVER/UNDER
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
Johnnymets: 2-2
Southern Bureau: 2-2
The Wife: 2-2
The Brother-in-Law: 1-3

(I'll see if I can get a spreadsheet or something for next week.)

A SUNDAY WITH NOTHING TO PLAY FOR

Strange Sunday. The final week of the NFL season, which means the fantasy league is over (for me, without playoffs, it's been long since over), and after the Giants lost to the Pats on Saturday night, I had no chance of winning anything in the confidence pool I'm in (I had been doing so badly that the past few weeks I just picked against the Patriots because everyone was picking them, just hoping their loss might benefit me financially). So that left me with nothing but 'the love of the game' on Sunday for the final day of the NFL season.

I watched much of the Jets-Chiefs game, knowing it would be the last time I saw the Jets play for months. I also hoped Chad Pennington would make an appearance in what was likely his last game in a Jets uniform (more on that later in the week). That didn't happen, but I think by watching the game, I have made my peace with Kellen Clemens. If he is the Jets' quarterback in 2008, so be it. I'll never love him...I don't know that I'll ever get very attached to a single Jet ever again...but I'll live with him. Amazingly, in a game just about everyone just wanted to go out and get it over with, the Jets and Chiefs went to overtime. The Jets did win, hurting their draft position a little, but I really don't know enough about this year's draft crop to judge whether or not that's a horrible thing. The way I see it, they should trade the pick and build up a stockpile of picks...unless there's one great player out there.

I want to spend a bit of time, though, talking about the Saturday night game, because that was the best game of the weekend.

I want to reiterate my claim - I do not think the Patriots will go 19-0. If they do, then yes, they can be considered the greatest team of all time. I don't think you can argue that. But they're starting to slip. They're beatable. And I just think 19-0 will be an incredibly hard thing to do. I don't know who it is that will beat them - and I think you can make the argument against me that they will go 19-0, just having to win 3 more games, after a bye week. But those three games won't come easy...and I think the game plan to beat them is out there. It just needs to be executed.

The Giants looked like they had that game plan in place and all but had the Patriots beat Saturday night. But Eli Manning did them in. I've never seen a player go from having a great game to an awful one quicker. Eli looked like Peyton in the first half and on the first drive of the second half, when the Giants took a 28-16 lead. Then it's like he suddenly realized he was on the verge of the biggest win of his career, got nervous, and played horribly, when all the Giants needed was a few first downs to keep the Patriots' offense off the field.

That's not to take the credit away from the Patriots. Tom Brady has the opposite gift of Eli -nothing rattles him. He knew he'd win that game, and went out and did it. The Patriots' defense sensed Eli was getting rattled, and rattled him some more. Brady to Moss didn't work once, so they went right back to it. That's why they're 16-0.

But I still don't think they'll go 19-0. Part of this rationale is my studid heart getting in the way of my head...I just don't like this team. At least with the past few Patriots championship teams they had players you could respect and, in spite of yourself, root for. Those players drowned out the Bill Belichicks and Rodney Harrisons, at least in my view, and made the team tolerable. But this year it seems like the Patriots have suddenly gotten classless, and there are more Rodney Harrison-types than not. There's a lot more "me" guys there...and I'm surprised it's working for them so well. But that's another part of the reason I think their season will end with a loss.

AROUND THE LEAGUE
1) A couple of years ago I was all over the Jaguars, and how, at 12-4, I thought they were fakers. I think I called them the 'worst 12-4 team of all time'. Well, this year they're 11-5, and I think they're better than the 12-4 team. I am buying into David Garrard - I think the Jaguars made a great decision going with him over Byron Leftwich. I've been anti-Fred Taylor the past few years, thinking he's washed up. I take it all back. He's had a fantastic year, and he's splitting time with Maurice Jones-Drew. I think the Jaguars could be dangerous in the playoffs - but it hurts them that they have to go on the road.

2) For you die-hards out there, Anthony Becht is still playing with the Buccaneers. He gets decent playing time (I think, because I haven't spent much time watching Tampa this season), but he is mainly a blocking tight end. He finished the season with 5 catches for 20 yards, but two of those catches were for touchdowns, and another two for first downs. Watch for him next week against the Giants - he always came up big for the Jets in big games.

SITE UPDATE: I think I'll make my playoff picks by Friday night, and you are free to post comments with your picks. I'll pick against the spread, and using the over/under. I urge you to do the same.

Also, please note that I have transferred all of the Jets content to this site, and the Jets site is effectively no more. Thanks.

TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS

The Jets need help this week. But I think they'll get the help they need this week, and then it's on them next week to win and get into the playoffs. Here's what I mean:

The Jets need to win both of their games, and finish 10-6. So they should really only be worrying about themselves (not something we have to worry about this week, since Monday night they are the last game beind played on the weekend). There are 3 other teams entering today's play at 8-6 - Cincinnati, Denver, and Jacksonville. (We're not going to worry about the 7-7 teams, because they need a ton of help, and they shouldn't factor in with the Jets winning both of their games.) Cincinnati and Denver are playing each other today. So one of those teams is going to be 8-7, one at 9-6. Jets fans, it doesn't matter who you root for in that one, as long as the winner of that game also wins next week, and makes the playoffs along with the Jets.

The Jaguars have a chance to really mess with the Jets' chances. They are playing the Patriots. All the Patriots have to do is win one of their final two games to clinch the division (they play at Tennessee next week, so it isn't totally out of the question that they may lose these two games...but it's highly unlikely). I think the Patriots win today, effectively ending the Jaguars' hopes (they play at Kansas City next week, but they would need a lot of help to get in, and if everything works out the way I'm rooting for, I don't see that help coming). But there's a chance the dominant Jaguars team that has showed up in certain weeks this season shows up today, upsets the Patriots, and throws a wrench in things.

So, if the Jets win this week, there's a chance they'll be 9-6, along with Denver or Cincy. And the other Denver/Cincy team and the Jaguars would be 8-7. So the Jets would only need to win at home next week against Oakland and get into the playoffs. To recap, Jets fans should be rooting for the Pats this week - write off the division. If it turns out the Patriots lose today, we'll re-evaluate next week's games...and be rooting big-time for Tennessee, and a division championship. Because if the Patriots lose today, that means the Jaguars win, and then the Jets will need a little help next week, I think.

As for Monday's game, I think we're past the days where the Jets choke in big games. (Unless the opponent is Buffalo, whcih, thank goodness, it's not.) I think the Jets will beat Miami something like 27-13, setting up a big weekend next week. (The other factor in the Dolphins game is that the Dolphins had some trash talk going on after the Jets' win over them earlier this year, saying stuff like, "we're the better team". The Jets haven't forgotten that - it's come up in the papers this week. That's good that the Jets are using that as some motivation, too. (Although the playoffs should be all the motivation they need, it never hurts to add a personal slight.)

PICKS: It's been a while, but since the season is almost over, I'm updating for you the standings in the johnnyjets pick 'em league:

1. Cuz: 115

2. Dave in Brighton 106

3. The Wife 105

4. Justin in NYC 105

5. johnnyjets 103

6. Southern Bureau 87 (I think he's given up)

Let's also keep in mind, though, that The Wife forgot to put her picks in one week, costing her big time. So her score is still with a 0 for one week. Pretty impressive.

Finally, this picture I came across earlier in the week, showing that for the Jets, it's not just about the football - it's about reaching out to that younger fan and establishing a connection that will last a lifetime:

WHOOPS

Jaguars 41, Jets 0 (JAX: 3-2, NYJ: 2-3)

Well, that was a disaster.

If the Jets play like they did on Sunday, they will be 2-6 by their bye week. But if they play like they have shown they can play up until Sunday, they have just cleared the toughest part of their schedule for now, and can be 5-3 at the bye.

I'm not going to spend a lot of time rehashing this game, because the Jets got their butts kicked, and I want to write a quick Mets update before I fall asleep, but I do want to say that the refs did a horrible job on Sunday. I know it was 28-0, and it was highly unlikely the Jets were going to win the game, but the Jets had a safety ripped away from them when the refs called a roughing the passer penalty on Eric Barton, killing any chance the Jets had of getting back into the game (this followed an earlier Jacksonville possession where Jonathan Vilma was called for a roughing the passer and the Jags went on to score a touchdown.) Vilma's was closer to a penalty, but I'm still not sure it was. Not sure why the refs were so anti-Jets on Sunday.

Anyway, the Jets could have beaten the Jaguars - they definitely should have put on a better showing. Maybe this game kind of wakes them up and makes them realize they can't keep falling behind teams in the first quarter. Either way, by the end of the next three weeks we'll know if the Jets will be worth watching the rest of the year, or if it's time again to look for a high draft pick.

THE PICK

For the record, I say Jets 13, Jaguars 9.

Just thought I'd weigh in on the weekend of playoff football:

• Jacksonville IS the worst 12-4 team of all time.
• The Giants are awful. What a disaster. I truly think that had I picked the Panthers to win that game, the Giants would have found a way to win. I have nothing against the Giants, I root for them. I don't root for them over the Jets, but I still root for the Giants. I don't like Tom Coughlin, but I really like Tiki Barber, and I root for them. But they clearly hate me, and are out to get me.
• It's a shame about Carson Palmer. Definitely not a dirty hit. To have it happen on Palmer's first post-season pass...maybe there is a more snake-bitten franchise than the Jets. But they've still been to two Super Bowls.
• Washington played disgusting football. There is no way they beat the Seahawks in Seattle. No way.
• The NFL's announcers obviously read johnnyjets.blogspot.com. The use of the word "unbelievable" was definitely curbed this weekend - although it reared its head a few times. Incidentally - this is related to the fact that the best broadcast teams were working these games this weekend - the ESPN Broadcast crew (though Mike Patrick's game in recent weeks has admittedly suffered), Maddens-Michaels, Simms-Nantz (though I don't like Nantz), and Buck-Aikman. The further down the broadcasting depth chart you go, the more the word "unbelievable" appears as a crutch for stupid analysts.
• In a related story, we're going to have to suffer through Enberg-Dierdorf one more time this season during this coming weekend's games, and it's most likely going to be during the Steelers-Colts game, unless CBS decides the Colts are the prime game, and sends Enberg to Denver. (I will miss the live telecast of the Patriots-Broncos game to attend a BU hockey game with the Brighton, Wilmington, and Upper East Side Bureau Chiefs of JJDBSDC, so I sincerely hope CBS sends Simms and Nantz to Indy.)

Finally, in a new feature, which I will try to get Dave in Brighton to participate in (oops - on the phone with him now, he already looked at the spreads, so he won't participate) -

JOHNNYJETS.BLOGSPOT.COM PICKS THE SPREADS FOR THE WEEK!!

I have SEA - 8.5 over Washington, with the over/under at (48.5)

DEN - 2.5 over New England (only because it's in Denver), with the over/under at (46.5)

IND -4.5 over Pittsburgh, over/under at (52.5)

CHI -1.5 over Carolina, over/under at (27.5)

Much to my surprise, I learned that the Indy/Pittsburgh spread is 9 right now. That's something.

Finally, thanks to big Jets fan cousin Eddie for letting me know that Terry Bradway was on Mike & The Mad Dog this afternoon, to say the Jets interviewed Jim Haslett (Booooo), will interview Mike Tice (are you kidding me - (I forgot to mention this yesterday - but he is the only thing on this planet that could happen to the Jets that would be worse than Haslett), and apparently will meet with Patriots defensive coordinator Eric Mangini this week about their head coaching position. Not much conversation about Mike Sherman....yet. But the Mangini thing is sure to make news up here in the Boston area - I'll keep my ear close to the ground.

I don't feel much like rhyming about the Jets' loss to Jacksonville.

I suppose the game was a great one to watch. A 26-20 overtime game, with the Jets forcing overtime in the game's final minutes. Unfortunately, the Jets lost it, and they probably lost their chance at doing anything this season in the process.

I hate negativity. That's why I can't stand a lot of Jets fans. It's all negative. I try my best to be positive constantly. I try to give the coaches the benefit of the doubt. At least the coaches not named Paul Hackett. But when you're a Jets fan, there's always a part of you that's constantly focusing on the negative. Despite all of my positive thoughts about Chad Pennington's arm, part of me believed it wasn't right. I would rather look at the 7-for-7 on the final drive (where the Jets passed) versus Miami than the fact that his throws were wobbly. I'd rather not think about what would happen if Pennington took another shot to the shoulder.

Well, Pennington took another shot to the shoulder, and there's no denying it now - he can't throw the football. And despite how much he says they need to cut his arm off for him to not play, he can't play. The Jets can't let him go out there - they're only going to cost themselves games. And I think - and this is total speculation - that Pennington's career could be in serious jeopardy...let alone his season.

Now, the Jets actually did something smart before the season. And that was sign Jay Fiedler, just in case Pennington's arm didn't recover in time. Well, now Fiedler could possibly miss the rest of the season with a serious shoulder injury. Only the Jets would sign a capable backup as a plan B, (although I don't believe Fiedler is capable of winning a playoff game), only to see that quarterback suffer the same fate as the starter.

So next week in Baltimore the Jets face the prospect of starting Brooks Bollinger. Positive thougts - Bollinger looked the best of the three quarterbacks the day I saw the Jets in training camp....negative - it had to be the worst day of practice of the summer. The Ravens' defense has got to be salivating at the thought of facing Bollinger. He played last season a little bit in the game against Arizona...and Arizona's defense gave him a hard time. Baltimore's defense has been struggling...this is the time for them to right the ship.

Now quarterback names are being thrown about - and the name Quincy Carter has even come up. I'm not positive, but didn't Carter bail on the Jets at the end of last season? Weren't there rumors that he was back on a drug suspension at the end of the year after the Jets took a chance on him? I hope they don't turn to him again.

I'm going to throw something out here that I kept forgetting to mention at the beginning of the year. I never understood why a team like the Bears, when they lost Rex Grossman, didn't take a chance on Rohan Davey when he was cut by New England. He's played well in NFL Europe, and I'm going to suggest the Jets take a chance on him. They're obviously not sold on Bollinger, if they're so anxious to look for help, and Davey has been on the World Champs for the past few years. And at the very least, he's got the arm that Mike Heimerdinger can take advantage of in his system. Come to think of it, he's a bit like Steve McNair - in build, size, and running ability. Who knows? Maybe there are other issues with Davey...but the Jets are in a desperate situation.

I had to take a day before I wrote about the Jets' situation. I needed to stew a bit. I'm not going to even get into the punt returning problems Justin Miller had. Or the offensive line problems that resulted in Pennington and Fiedler getting roughed up in the first place. It's tough, rooting for the Jets. You hate to say, "Same ol' Jets", because it looked like they were turning a corner, but it looks like we're dealing with the same ol' Jets.

PICKS!!!

A bad loss to the Chiefs in Week One,
And you thought things couldn’t get worse.
Well, now just look what I’ve done –
This week’s Jets pick is in verse.

They bounced back in last week’s game,
Beating Miami by ten.
This week expect more of the same,
The Jets will triumph again.

Some have the line at No Line,
Some have New York minus-3.
Leftwich’s status – not fine.
He has a bad arm, leg, and knee.

Curtis Martin is better,
His status received an upgrade.
He really is a go-getter…
And Blaylock’s there should he fade.

Chad Pennington’s treasured arm
Has shown recent signs it’s alive.
Once he starts getting warm,
Like in last week’s game’s final drive.

The defense is a major force –
For the Jags it won’t be an easy day.
But their D’s tough too, of course,
The offenses will not find their way.

There’s one weak spot to be found-
And it helps the Jets and their Curtis.
The Jaguars give up lots of ground –
“The running backs can really hurt us.”

So it’s with the Jets I will stick,
A defensive struggle it’ll be.
And for this week’s big pick -
It’ll be Jets, thirteen to three.

OK. Now I'll be normal again. For some reason I just felt like doing that - I was inspired, I guess.

So last week I was the best against the spread - 10-5-1. The wife was 8-7-1, and Dave from Brighton went 6-9-1. Overall, Dave's record is the same (he had nothing for Week One), the wife is 18-13-1, one game in front of me at 17-14-1.

This week, the wife picks the Jets, and Dave also does...we're using No Line on that game.

Across the NFL:

The Rams are home to the Titans. I think this is the first home game for Saint Louis - after losing at San Francisco and then winning in Arizona. Tough luck for Tennessee. After beating the Ravens in Tennessee last week, I think they're going to get smoked. I take the Rams giving six-and-a-half. (Wife picks TEN, Dave takes ST.L.)

Philadelphia hosts Oakland. Wow. Tough early sked for Oakland. At New England, home to KC, now at Philly. I take Philly, giving seven-and-a-half. (Dave and wife take PHI)

Cincinnati is in Chicago, favored by three. Chicago is good defense, Cincinnati is good offense. I think Cincy's offense is better. I take CIN -3. (Dave takes CHI +3, wife takes CIN)

Minnesota hosts New Orleans. For some reason, I wrote down that I'll take New Orleans. Maybe the dome will benefit them...I don't know. Maybe I think they'll only lose by three, getting three-and-a-half. (Dave takes NO, wife takes MIN giving the points).

Carolina is three point favorites at Miami. After beating the Patriots, they can't lose to Miami. This is a typical let-down game, but the Panthers already had their let-down in Week One. I take Car - 3. (Dave and wife also take CAR)

Indy is giving 13-and-a-half to Cleveland. I picked Indy minus the points, but I'll be interested to see how Peyton Manning does against Romeo Crennel. Interesting matchup here. We'll see if it's Crennel who has Manning's number or Belichick. (Dave takes Indy, wife takes Cle).

No line on Buffalo and Atlanta, because of Mike Vick's uncertain status. I think he'll play. And win. I take Atlanta. (Dave takes BUF, wife takes ATL).

The Packers have to win eventually, don't they? They host the Bucs, and are home 'dogs. They can't lose as a home 'dog. I think they win outright. I take Green Bay, plus three-and-a-half. (Dave and wife also take GB)

Seattle hosts Arizona, giving six. I don't know why, but I'm taking Arizona. I guess I figure they're going to win eventually, and the NFC West will be all messed up, and to get to that point, they're going to have to beat Seattle, and that will probably happen this week. So I take Ari, +6. (Dave takes Sea, and so does the wife)

Pittsburgh hosts New England, and is giving 3. It looks like two losses in a row for the Pats. I don't buy Roethlisberger, but the Steelers can play smashmouth like the Panthers did last week. Regular season, anyway. Steelers, -3. (Dave and the wife, both Pats fans, take NE and the points)

Dallas is favored by six-and-a-half in San Francisco. I think the Cowboys win by a touchdown. I take Dallas. (Dave takes Dallas, wife takes SF)

Sunday night, it's Chargers-Giants. I have to say, the Giants have looked good in their first two games. Eli Manning hasn't impressed the heck out of me, but he's playing smart. I also think the Chargers are overrated (or were, anyway, before they started 0-2). So I'm taking the Giants, getting five-and-a-half, although the Chargers will probably sneak by and win this game. (Dave takes SD, wife takes NYG)

Monday night, it's Denver-KC, in Denver. Kansas City, the way they've been playing, should kill Denver. They're actually getting three. Easy pick. KC, plus-3. (Same for Dave and the wife).

Enjoy Week Three!

MOVE OVER MIAMI

Jets 17, Dolphins 7 (NYJ: 1-1; MIA: 1-1)

Week One is a distant memory. The Jets are tied for first place.

A couple of weeks ago, leading up to the season opener, I think I wrote something to the effect of: the Jets will need their defense to carry them early in the year, while the offense works out its bugs. Clearly they needed a stronger effort from the defense last week against Kansas City, but the offense was a lost cause. Sunday's game against the Dolphins was more of what I think we can expect from the Jets in coming weeks - great defense, effective-enough offense, and hopefully by the end of the year the offense is even better. The Jets are going to be good this year - everything is going to be OK - but they aren't going to blow teams out, and the wins probably aren't going to be pretty - they'll be typical Jets wins...but the point is, they will get plenty of wins.

The Jets got a lot of help Sunday too. First of all, they beat the Dolphins, so they're 1-0 in the division. That's big. They can't lose division games in the first place - let alone to Miami. They'll have a tough enough time with Buffalo and New England. But both of those teams dropped to 1-1 with losses on Sunday - the Bills lost to the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, and the Patriots lost to the Panthers in Carolina. I didn't see the Bills' win in Week One, but by all accounts they looked good. They didn't look good in Tampa. And the Patriots looked very vulnerable - a look that we haven't seen in a while. There are chinks in their armor...good news for the Jets.

The Jets' game against the Dolphins started ominously - the first snap from Kevin Mawae to Chad Pennington was dropped. Fortunately, it was negated by an offsides, and I'm sticking with the story that Pennington rushed the snap because he saw the Dolphins jump. But things quickly got better - the Jets drove 80 yards on 9 plays, scoring on a beautiful fade pass from Pennington to Laveranues Coles. The pass was even better because Pennington had a blitz coming at him - it looked like 8 Dolphins rushing - and he made the great play. 7-0, Jets.

The only bad thing about the first drive was that on Pennington's first successful snap from center, the crowd cheered, and they did the same on the first shotgun snap. That's slightly embarrassing.

The Dolphins' first drive was just as effective - they drove right down the field on the Jets, but the Jets tightened up and stopped Miami inside the 5-yard line. Olindo Mare lined up for a 20-yard field goal, and a bad snap resulted in a missed field goal. That's why I feel it would have been important for Herman Edwards to have challenged last week's touchdown by Priest Holmes - it clearly would have been overturned, and the Jets play strong inside the 10-yard line. They could have forced a field goal (or a missed field goal), and who knows what would have happened. But I should forget about Week One.

The defense played a great game - holding the Dolphins scoreless until the fourth quarter. They got much better pressure on the quarterback (granted, it was Gus Frerotte), but they played very well. Mike Nugent had his first field goal - a 41-yarder with about a minute left in the first half, and special teams played pretty well overall. Ben Graham had a good game - and one of his punts - out of his own end zone - kept carrying, and was actually dropped by Wes Welker, pushing the Dolphins back to inside their own 40.

The other good news was right after the Dolphins touchdown the Jets put together their own very good drive - a drive which ended on a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jerald Sowell, making it 17-7 Jets. Pennington was 7-for-7, for 74 yards on the drive. A good sign. The pass to Sowell came off a great play action fake.

Pennington can't come out of the gate throwing bombs (and when I say bombs, I'm talking Pennington bombs). I think it takes him a few short passes to warm up in the game, before he can start unloading. Pennington is never goint to rifle the ball...what we saw on Sunday was typical Pennington - well-placed passes - some look floaty, but they're effective. If the Jets are going to win games, that's how they're going to win them. He's going to underthrow some receivers, but the more comfortable he gets, the less we'll see of that.

The bad news from the game was the Dolphins were constantly in the Jets' backfield. There was a lot of pressure on Pennington, and the running game was virtually non-existent. That needs to be fixed.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are up next at the Meadowlands. They played the Colts in Indy, and held Peyton Manning and company to just one touchdown in a 10-3 loss. There was plenty of running room for Edgerrin James, though, so we'll see if Martin has a breakout game next week. It's going to be a tough defensive struggle, I have a feeling, but the Jets should be able to out-defense the Jags. I feel better about the Jets' defense versus Byron Leftwich than I do the Jags' defense against Pennington. But more on that as the week goes on.

One last thing - this Sunday was my first experience with the Sunday Ticket. Outstanding. I needed to develop a rhythm, though, because it was tough figuring out which games to turn to to catch good game action. And Tivo was essential when the Jets were on, because if I missed a Jets play while checking out another game, I could just rewind and see what I missed. I need to improve my channel-changing though. I'll get better at it next week.

Good news, Jets fans. The household once again has a computer. I will try to get back into a regular blog writing schedule, which I haven't had the chance to do since the season started, but the household also has a lot of homework these days (including right now, but we have a couple of e-mails I have to get to...can't let down the fans.). So I'll do the best I can.

First things first, let's go to the mailbag. Thanks for writing...

"Dear Johnnyjets.
Three weeks into the season may be a little early to play the
surprise/bust game...but I'd like to get your read on a couple of
teams.
Jacksonville is 3-0. But with 35 points scored and 28 points allowed,
and what seemed like a lucky pass interference call this past week
against the Titans that set up the game-winning touchdown. So...are
the Jags a contender or pretender?
On the flip side, K.C. looks absolutely abominable at 0-3, with 86
points allowed the most in the NFL. Is there any hope for the Chiefs?
Do you have a "dark horse" in the AFC, somebody flying under the radar
who you think can run off 10 wins and get into the playoffs as a wild
card? (And don't say the Jets.)
Love your show,
Dave"

I wouldn't say the Jets, Dave, because you said "dark horse in the AFC"...and everyone knows I consider the Jets an AFC favorite. To be honest, I was big on Jacksonville this year. (I might have written that in one of my previews before the season, but I don't know. Scroll down and check that out - I can't do that while I'm writing this.) I didn't think the Jaguars would start 3-0, but I thought they'd make a late-season push. But you're write about Jacksonville...not only did they luck out against the Titans, but they lucked out in week 2 against the Broncos when Quentin Griffin fumbled deep in their territory, and they lucked out in week 1 on a last second Touchdown to win the game against the Bills. (Their defense is great, so it isn't all luck, but a lot of it is.) Speaking of the Bills, they've been a couple of plays from being 2-0, instead, they're 0-2. They would have been a crappy 2-0 team, but they're barely losing games...for whatever that's worth. As for Kansas City, I think there is a little hope, because their defense can only get better, and I don't think Oakland and San Diego are better. Once the Chiefs get a little healthier, they'll climb the division - but Denver will probably still win the West.


"John,
Curtis Martin is putting up huge numbers. I don't think he will sustain this pace the whole year. Do you think now would be a good time to start utilizing Lamont Jordan a little more, specifically on screen passes. Also, look for me at the Jets game this week in Miami. I will likely be the only one standing and cheering in my section, based on the way the Dolphins looked the last three weeks.
Sincerely, Fireman Mark"

First of all Mark, glad to hear from you...I've been meaning to give you a call to talk Jets and to see how you did with all the hurricanes, but school's been busy. Glad to hear also that you're going to this weekend's game. Give Jay Fiedler hell. Those Dartmouth people are awful. I wrote in one of my more recent postings that as a Jets fan, you just have to feel that Martin is going to wear down at some point. And I would think we should start seeing more of LaMont Jordan, but I think the Jets are intent on running Martin into the ground this season. I'm fine with that - I think Martin is in some of the best shape of his career, so I think he might not wear down, even though the pessimistic Jets fan deep inside me says he's going to get hurt in Week 9. All of the newspapers had big articles during the bye week on Martin's offseason training regimen (he took flights to California for the weekend just so he could run some steep steps in a cliff somewhere). So I feel good about Martin...but Jordan is fun to watch when he gets the ball on the screen...I just hope Herman Edwards gets over the preseason difficulties he and Jordan had, and uses him to give Martin some down time.

For the record - I went 8-5-1 with my picks last week against the spread (for entertainment purposes only). Also for the record, I won my office pool for the second time in three weeks, and my fantasy football team is 3-0. I need to go do homework now. I'll give a weekend preview hopefully by Friday.