Have you seen this week's spreads? I don't know what to make of them, except for the fact that when I look at them, it convinces me that for the most part, as far as putting down money, I'm going to be sticking to the over/unders this weekend. (Remember, when I say "putting down money, I'm referring to my participation in the pool on officefootballpool.com, where I am in first place after one week, incidentally, and from where I am taking these spreads. I earned my week in first by turning $250 into $650 last week - fake dollars.)
Here's what I think will happen this week:
SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY (GB - 7.5, 41.5)
Seattle was less-than-convincing last week at home against the Redskins. No chance on the road in Green Bay this week. Their running game is awful, and the Packers defense is pretty good. I can see this game going a few different ways. I could see 24-17, or 24-20 Packers, where the Pack just squeak by. (Therefore, I won't put money on that spread...I do like the over.) I think it might be close, then the Packers will pull away late:
JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ENGLAND (NE - 13.5, 49.5)
I've been saying it for weeks. The Patriots are ripe for the picking. They haven't been beaten yet, though, and the near losses have probably just made them stronger. The bye week helps, too. And I don't think the Jaguars are the team to get over the "Beating the Patriots" threshold. They'll pound New England. They'll beat them up. The Patriots will lose some players to injury. And I wouldn't be shocked if they lost...but I think the Jaguars will soften them up enough for the Colts next week. All that said, I don't think I'm going to touch this game at all with money, unless I win huge in the early game. Here's my pick:
SAN DIEGO AT INDIANAPOLIS (IND -8.5, 46.5)
This is sort of a tune-up game for the Colts. I see no way San Diego can win, with the way they've been playing, and then throw in the fact that Phillip Rivers doesn't have Antonio Gates. I think the Colts win easy, though I don't know how confident I am in that spread and over/under (although I did give this game my favorite football picking score of all time):
NEW YORK AT DALLAS (DAL -7.5, 47.5)
I hate that this is the last game, because it's the only one I'm positive about putting money on and getting a win. I think this is a 3-point game either way, so I love the Giants getting more than a touchdown. Love it. I think they're playing great football - and they've been proving me wrong all year, so I've finally jumped on the bandwagon (and since this is the Giants we're talking about, that means it's time for them to crap the bed). Eli Manning suddenly has one more playoff win than Tony Romo, Terrell Owens isn't a hundred percent - everything looks like it's pointing to a Giants upset. I know the Cowboys put up lots of points on the Giants this year when they took both games...but it's the Giants' turn. Watch it happen (or at least watch them cover):
Here's where we stand in the picks after last week - if anyone new wants to jump on board, leave your picks in the 'comments' section, and I'll extend the graph to include winning percentage.
Enjoy the football.