WEEK 16 LIVE BLOG

11:48am - I've just decided the conditions today are right for a live blog. There are some interesting situations in today's Jets game (a 4 o'clock start...ugh) - Brett Favre vs. Mike Holmgren, Thomas Jones vs. Julius Jones - and then there's the looming playoff situation. The Jets will be playing in snowy conditions in Seattle, most likely, and the Patriots will be doing the same against the Cardinals in Foxboro. And I hear it will be extremely cold in Kansas City where the Chiefs will be hosting the Dolphins. So it will be an eventful day. I'll watch it all. And I'll write about it. After I get in from my first round of shoveling for the day.

12:10pm - Wow. That's a lot of snow. There's going to be a lot more shoveling today than I thought. Maybe I'll give you a picture later.

I'll set another scene here without a picture...but I'll still paint the image for you. All season I had been wearing a Jets t-shirt with my Jets fleece pants on Sundays for Jets games. After the two losses to San Francisco and Denver, though, I was going to switch things up, and with guests coming over last week I wasn't going to wear the fleece pants anyway. So I went with the t-shirt, jeans, and a Jets hat. That worked out, barely. I'm sticking with that outfit today - hopefully it's still lucky. I can't invite the guests back - they're back in New York. I've also been wearing my Jets sweatshirt for shoveling, so if things aren't going so well maybe I'll switch to that in the second half.

12:25pm - Here's your almost-live picture of the snow, still falling heavily:
Should be similar conditions for the Patriots-Cardinals game...at least the start of it. I think by the end of the game this will be freezing rain and everything will ice over.

1:15pm - I've fed the baby, so at least I'm not totally neglecting my parental duties today. And so much for the Jets getting any help - the Patriots are already up 7-0, and it took the Dolphins all of 18 seconds to go up 7-0 versus the Chiefs. They followed quickly with a turnover, then they had a turnover negated by a penalty. The Cardinals look terrible in the snow...looks like the Jets are going to just have to win their final two games no matter what.

1:41pm - Kansas City is showing signs of life. But to be honest, I don't think any of that matters. The Jets can't clinch this week. So I guess it'll look nice if the Jets are 10-5 while the Pats and Dolphins are 9-6, but the truth of the matter is the Jets need to win their final two games. Period. It doesn't matter what happens with the Dolphins and Patriots.

2:00pm - So a Dolphins win hurts the Patriots, does nothing for the Jets. A Dolphins loss helps the Patriots, does nothing for the Jets. What a weird week.

2:33pm - Update on the wardrobe - I'm really cold in just a t-shirt, so I'm going with the sweatshirt. Hope I don't cost the Jets a win.

Here's something good I just thought of - it's going to be bad weather in Seattle, but Brett Favre played his entire career in Green Bay, so he's got to be unaffected by it, no?

2:45pm - Out to shovel the next foot of snow that's fallen since I last shoveled three hours ago.

3:18pm - I hope the Jets are seeing what the Patriots are doing to the Cardinals (similar to what the Jets did to Arizona the last time I live-blogged, incidentally), and go out and do the same thing to the Seahawks in about an hour. There's no reason the Jets should lose today.

3:55pm - I am enjoying this Dolphins-Chiefs game. And I think since the Jets control their fate by playing the Dolphins next week, I'd rather see the Dolphins win, putting the Patriots in the tougher spot. And I need a fantasy touchdown from Ronnie Brown. So go Miami!

4:16pm - The Jets got three on their opening drive. Came close to getting a touchdown...but I'm encouraged by how they've moved the ball. The thing that scares me is that the Jets have done that on opening drives most of the season, then they go flat. So they need to keep it up.

The weather in Seattle, by the way, doesn't look all that terrible.

4:30pm - The weather is getting worse. That Seattle crowd is loud, even when the Seahawks are terrible. Good for them.

4:37pm - Through one quarter, 3-0, Jets. And I'm not feeling any less nervous.

5:01pm - My daughter may be a lucky charm. Twice I've had her yell 'Defense' at the TV, and twice it's resulted in the Seahawks fumbling (the last two drives). This last fumble came inside the 5. I will definitely be using this to my advantage.

5:22pm - I'm so friggin' angry. 7-3 Seahawks at halftime. The Jets haven't been able to move the ball since the opening drive. And the Seahawks are moving the ball pretty well. This game scares me a lot.

5:44pm - Another round of shoveling under my belt. Haven't even begun to try to dig out the cars (still coming down pretty steadily, by the way). This will be good therapy after the game, though - win or lose. I will need a distraction from the way the Jets make me crazy.

6:05pm - It's the end of the 3rd quarter, Seahawks up 10-3. I feel like I'm going to throw up...and now it's time for dinner.

6:19pm - A delay of game on a field goal...the Jets are lucky to still be down 7 right now with the ball. But they need a touchdown on this drive.

6:24pm - 6:48 to go in the game, and the Seahawks are playing like they're trying to wrap up a playoff spot. The Jets look awful. Like they have the past month. I'm so disappointed.

6:32pm - This is it - 3:06 left, the Jets have it at about their own 10. If the Jets don't get a touchdown, they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. And I just might root for Chad Pennington to beat them and make the playoffs next week.

6:37pm - It's not fun being a Jets fan. Disappointment after disappointment. I hope Pennington embarrasses them next week.

NO MORE CUSHION

It doesn't matter who the head coach is, it doesn't matter who the quarterback is. It doesn't matter, really, who any of the players are. Year in and year out, the Jets are so frustrating to root for.

They looked like they were sleepwalking out in San Francisco on Sunday...not a good sign considering they have a similar trip to Seattle coming up in two weeks. (And that Seattle game looms threateningly [as do all of the Jets' remaining games], because I thought they'd beat either the Patriots or the Jets. They barely didn't beat New England, so I don't think that bodes too well for the Jets. Seattle is just a tough place to play...I don't know that both New England and the Jets go there and win. Uh-oh.)

As I mentioned last week, I have a bad feeling about all of the Jets' remaining games. And with Sunday's game a 4 o'clock start, I had too much time to dread the game. And I got to reading and thinking. And in the Sunday paper it said the game was the first for the Jets at San Francisco since 1998. And I remember that game like it was yesterday. It was the season opener - Glenn Foley was quarterback for that game and one more before he got injured and lost the job to Vinny Testaverde. It was a shootout - tied at 30 going into overtime. I think Foley threw for 400 yards.

The Jets backed up the Niners in OT, before Garrison Hearst ripped off the longest overtime touchdown run in history - what was it, 96 yards? So thinking about that made me feel even worse about this game, even though there's really no connection at all.

The past two weeks have just been terrible. Bad penalties (Eric Barton last week against Denver...he's in my doghouse. I still hold a playoff 4th down roughing the passer penalty against San Diego against him.). This week Kris Jenkins jumped offsides on a 4th and 1. That's something the Niners should be doing against Brett Favre - not the Jets against Shaun Hill.

And what the Jets have done is stretch themselves to the limit of this tiebreaker they own. With the Patriots and Dolphins winning, the three teams sit at 8-5. The Jets, by virtue of their division record, have the advantage over both teams.

But all that does is put them at the top of the standings for now. The reality is, the Jets have no wiggle room. They control their own destiny, but they have to take advantage, and the only way to do that is to win their final three games. They can't rely on external help - they just have to win.

I can't believe I even mentioned the possibility of a first-round bye. The Jets are starting to look like they'll need to win three playoff games if they are going to make it to the Super Bowl....if they make the playoffs at all.

NFL WEEK 5 RECAP

A bye week for the Jets, which meant I was able to give less than 100% focus to more than just the usual 2 to 3 games (that's the kind of respect I show the Jets):

BEST GAME OF WEEK 5: I really enjoyed watching the Miami Dolphins beat the San Diego Chargers, 17-10. It's looking more and more like the Jets were lucky to beat Miami in Week 1, and their loss to San Diego is just going to kill them come playoff time. The Dolphins were very good, and Chad Pennington was typical Pennington. His arm looked strong enough, and he didn't make any mistakes. A great game for him, and a great win for Miami. And there's something really screwy going on when I'm rooting wholeheartedly for the Miami Dolphins - I don't think I hate an NFL franchise more. There's the power of Pennington for you.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 5: Kudos to the Arizona Cardinals. You want to talk about a bounceback win - after getting embarrassed by the Jets (while still putting up 35 points themselves) they showed they can hang with the AFC East by beating the Bills handily. That's a good win, especially when you consider.....

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 5: ...the Seattle Seahawks absolutely laid an egg in their game against the Giants. I mean, the Giants look better than I think most of us expected - but they crushed Seattle. The Seahawks are supposed to be the best team out of that division....I think they've shown they are not, and the Cardinals, flaws and all, might be.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 6: How about another measuring stick for those aforementioned Arizona Cardinals? The Cardinals play the Cowboys in Arizona. Arizona is coming off a huge win, the Cowboys are coming off a disappointing performance at home against Cincinnati.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 6: Following a week where he threw for just 176 yards and no scores, I think Jason Campbell bounces back pretty good for Washington against St. Louis. Campbell is putting together a nice little season for himself, and Week 5 was more the aberration than the norm. That was some win for Washington, by the way, beating Philadelphia. They'll crush the Rams next week to go to 5-1, behind 298 yards from Campbell, with 3 TD's (one rushing).
-Last Week: I said Matt Forte would have a big game. Chicago had itself a big game, beating Detroit 34-7, but Forte had just 36 yards on 15 carries. He did catch 4 passes for 25 yards, with a touchdown receiving and rushing, but that's not really close to the 145 yards I predicted...though I did call for 2 TD's. This was my worst prediction of the season so far.

HOPE FOR 2008

I know football is in the rear-view mirror, but allow me one more posting, to end a disappointing football season on a note of hope.

The schedule isn't out yet, but the Jets know who their opponents will be in 2008:

At home: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, St. Louis, Arizona
On the road: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee, San Francisco, Seattle

Now, other than the fact that it's a pretty weak schedule (and the Jets didn't even finish in last place - imagine Miami's schedule!), the schedule features the Jets against the NFC West. Good things happen when the West comes up in the Jets' NFC Opponents rotation.

1998 - This was before the realignment that resulted in a very balanced schedule. The NFC West at this time was Atlanta, San Francisco, New Orleans, Carolina, and Saint Louis (the Arizona Cardinals were in the NFC East, and the Seahawks were still in the AFC). The Jets went just 2-2 against the West (not playing New Orleans, and losing the opening day heartbreaker to the 49ers), but they made it to the AFC Championship game.

The Jets played the NFC East in 1999, the Central in 2000, then:

2001 - Again, the Jets were just 2-2 against the NFC West, not playing Atlanta, but they made the playoffs.

The Jets faced the NFC North in 2002, the East again in 2003, then:

2004 - In the realigned divisions, the Jets took 3 out of 4 from San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis, losing to the Rams on the last day of the season, but still clinching a playoff berth. They beat the Chargers in the playoffs, but lost to the Steelers.

In 2005 it was the NFC South, then the North in 2006, and the East last year. It's the West's turn again in 2008...and good things happen when the Jets play the NFC West. There have been playoff appearances in years where the Jets play the other divisions, but there's something to the fact that the Jets have made the playoffs the last three times they have played the likes of the 49ers and Rams.

And I've got nothing else, really, to sustain me from this 2007 season, so I'll just hang my hat on that.

PLAYOFFS ROUND TWO ROUNDUP

The conference championship matchups are set. Basically, with the Colts' loss, it's going to be the Patriots against either the Packers or the Giants in the Super Bowl...and that means I have to root against the Packers, which stinks, since they are my secondary team again this year (for matchup reasons - Packers-Patriots has already happened, but you should know that if you're reading this). I think it's unlikely the Patriots will lose...but at least they're the early game next Sunday, and if they do, I can root for Green Bay late. (Truth be told, I wouldn't mind rooting for the Giants, either - they've grown on me this year - I'll get more into that later in the week.) Here's the recap:

That Green Bay game went sort of how last week's playoff games went. It turned out the way I expected (Green Bay blowout), but took a little while to develop. The Seahawks jumped out to the 14-0 lead, and I started to think there was something to all of these people picking Seattle to win in Green Bay. Then the Packers came back, and Brett Favre just looked like there was no way he was going to lose. It was like the dominant Packers of old. Favre has never won in Dallas, so he and the Packers look like the biggest beneficiaries of the Giants win.

I was disappointed by the Jaguars' performance. Their offense played much better than I expected, and their defense was underwhelming. I thought they would beat up the Patriots more than they did...and now the Patriots head into the conference championship game against a weak opponent, and they're sitting pretty. There's also a chance there might be a storm in New England next week, though I don't know the details. San Diego in New England, and possibly in a storm...I don't like their chances there.

The Colts ought to be ashamed of themselves. There's no call for losing this game. I know Antonio Gates played, which makes a difference for Philip Rivers, but this was a game they should have won. You know what it is? It's bad karma because Bob Sanders acted like a jerk to Nate Kaeding after he missed that field goal (how bad is Kaeding in the post-season - kicking like that in New England isn't going to get you to the Super Bowl). I don't care if you did go to college together - that's bad sportsmanship. (And I should know - I won my Little League sportsmanship award a few times.) I'm not surprised Billy Volek was effective - hasn't he done this type of thing before, at least in the regular season? I feel like he may have even done it in the playoffs - but I can't remember right now and I have more pressing concerns before bed than looking that up. This type of game makes gambling on games (or participating in the type of pool I'm in) a bummer, because I'm sitting there rooting for different scenarios to work out so I can win a bet...and then I realize at the end that while that was going on, I missed a pretty good football game. One last thing about San Diego - they had some legitimate gripes about some of the officials' calls in that game. It seemed Norv Turner was complaining about every call - but I think he had the right to.

The Giants did what I thought they could do. Towards the end of this game, I was actually rooting for the Cowboys to score a touchdown, so the Giants could come back and kick a field goal, force overtime, and I could get the over....then they showed Jerry Jones on the sideline. And I wanted the Giants to win........bad. And there was nothing more rewarding for me, someone who lost his over/under bet, so see Jerry Jones standing there at the end of the game, with his arms crossed, looking like a loser. That was great. I don't know that the Giants continue their Pittsburgh Steelers-type wild card run next week in Green Bay - but I think it will be an entertaining game.

Here's who did what this week (though you may have picked winners, I'm counting everyone's results against the spread, because that's how we do it around here):

PICKS
Johnnymets: 2-2
Justin from NYC: 1-3
Southern Bureau: 1-3
The Wife: 1-3
Dave in Brighton: 0-4

OVER/UNDER
Southern Bureau: 3-1
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
The Wife: 2-2
Johnnymets: 1-3

Chargers-Patriots, Giants-Packers in the conference championship games. Interesting matchups. Make your picks in the comments section on Friday.

THE PICKS - PLAYOFFS WEEK 2

Have you seen this week's spreads? I don't know what to make of them, except for the fact that when I look at them, it convinces me that for the most part, as far as putting down money, I'm going to be sticking to the over/unders this weekend. (Remember, when I say "putting down money, I'm referring to my participation in the pool on officefootballpool.com, where I am in first place after one week, incidentally, and from where I am taking these spreads. I earned my week in first by turning $250 into $650 last week - fake dollars.)

Here's what I think will happen this week:

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY (GB - 7.5, 41.5)
Seattle was less-than-convincing last week at home against the Redskins. No chance on the road in Green Bay this week. Their running game is awful, and the Packers defense is pretty good. I can see this game going a few different ways. I could see 24-17, or 24-20 Packers, where the Pack just squeak by. (Therefore, I won't put money on that spread...I do like the over.) I think it might be close, then the Packers will pull away late:


JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ENGLAND (NE - 13.5, 49.5)
I've been saying it for weeks. The Patriots are ripe for the picking. They haven't been beaten yet, though, and the near losses have probably just made them stronger. The bye week helps, too. And I don't think the Jaguars are the team to get over the "Beating the Patriots" threshold. They'll pound New England. They'll beat them up. The Patriots will lose some players to injury. And I wouldn't be shocked if they lost...but I think the Jaguars will soften them up enough for the Colts next week. All that said, I don't think I'm going to touch this game at all with money, unless I win huge in the early game. Here's my pick:


SAN DIEGO AT INDIANAPOLIS (IND -8.5, 46.5)
This is sort of a tune-up game for the Colts. I see no way San Diego can win, with the way they've been playing, and then throw in the fact that Phillip Rivers doesn't have Antonio Gates. I think the Colts win easy, though I don't know how confident I am in that spread and over/under (although I did give this game my favorite football picking score of all time):


NEW YORK AT DALLAS (DAL -7.5, 47.5)
I hate that this is the last game, because it's the only one I'm positive about putting money on and getting a win. I think this is a 3-point game either way, so I love the Giants getting more than a touchdown. Love it. I think they're playing great football - and they've been proving me wrong all year, so I've finally jumped on the bandwagon (and since this is the Giants we're talking about, that means it's time for them to crap the bed). Eli Manning suddenly has one more playoff win than Tony Romo, Terrell Owens isn't a hundred percent - everything looks like it's pointing to a Giants upset. I know the Cowboys put up lots of points on the Giants this year when they took both games...but it's the Giants' turn. Watch it happen (or at least watch them cover):


Here's where we stand in the picks after last week - if anyone new wants to jump on board, leave your picks in the 'comments' section, and I'll extend the graph to include winning percentage.


Enjoy the football.

A QUICK RECAP

Do you feel like I do? Did those playoff games turn out the way you expected them to, except not really go the way you expected them to?

I'll break it down winner-by-winner:

In my opinion, Seattle should have dominated this game from the get-go. Instead, they controlled the game, though they couldn't get anything huge going, until the Redskins shocked them with two quick scores to take the lead in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks then turned it into the rout it should have been from the beginning of the game, with a couple of defensive scores (and a back-door cover and back-door over).

A lot of people were high on Jacksonville going into this game - I just never got that way. If Pittsburgh had kicked an extra point or two, there would have been overtime, and who knows what would have happened (they at least would have covered the point-and-a-half with one extra point - my only loss against the spread this weekend). I will say this, with the Chargers win, the fact that Jacksonville now goes to New England gives the Patriots a tougher matchup than if it had been Tennessee.

The Giants game was, surprisingly, the least surprising game of the weekend. It was pretty straightforward - after the Buccaneers scored early in the game, the Giants rattled off 24 unanswered, and never looked back. I just didn't buy this Tampa team, and the way the Giants had played on the road, it seemed likely they would get the win. I don't want to tip my hand too soon...but with the Giants going to Dallas, a division foe they are familiar with, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants advance.

If you are a Chargers fan, you are breathing a tremendous sigh of relief right now. That did not go according to plan. The Chargers were lucky to win the game, let alone cover the 9-and-a-half point spread. A disgusting effort by San Diego at home. LaDainian Tomlinson is becoming an Alex Rodriguez type - he just doesn't perform in the post-season.

There was no picture to illustrate my point, so I'll just throw this out there here - Jack Del Rio of the Jaguars gets the "Best Dressed" award for the coaches this week. That leather jacket was sharp on Saturday night. (You might remember that Del Rio cares how he looks - he appealed to the NFL along with Mike Nolan for the coaches to be able to wear suits on the sidelines like the old days.)

Thanks for making your picks - here's the way it stands (I'll break it down into picks and over/unders, because apparently Justin from NYC doesn't 'do' over/unders):

PICKS
Justin from NYC: 4-0
Johnnymets: 3-1
Southern Bureau: 3-1
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
The Brother-in-Law: 2-2
The Wife: 1-3

OVER/UNDER
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
Johnnymets: 2-2
Southern Bureau: 2-2
The Wife: 2-2
The Brother-in-Law: 1-3

(I'll see if I can get a spreadsheet or something for next week.)

SUPER BOWL XL

SUPER BOWL XL

It's been a forgettable NFL season for me, about the only good thing to come out of it is a brand new Super Bowl matchup. So I can cross Seattle-Pittsburgh off my list (yes, there is a list...actually a spreadsheet) and hope that next year the Jets are the ones involved in another new Super Bowl matchup. (For those of you unfamiliar with my obsession, I want every NFL team to face every other NFL team, in their respective conferences, in the Super Bowl. Same goes for the World Series.)

I know there's a lot for me to weigh in on, what with the Jets' coaching debacles...I mean, changes...but I just want to put this season behind me for a bit. So I'm here to make a Super Bowl prediction, and then move onto johnnymets.blogspot.com for a while.

Back at the beginning of the post-season, I trashed Shaun Alexander as an MVP and said he'd probably cost his team a playoff game due to a fumble. I guess that hasn't happened, but he did fumble against Washington when he got knocked out...it just didn't cost the team the game (but shouldn't an MVP being knocked out of a playoff game cost your team the game...maybe he's not so V. Just a thought.)

That said, hopefully Alexander will NOT fumble and cost his team this game, because I am picking the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL. It's been a long road for the Steelers. I know they have a lot of emotion going into this game, what with Jerome Bettis and all, and there are going to be a lot of Steelers fans in Detroit. I know that. I didn't think the Steelers would be able to win in Indy...and then I did not think they'd be able to win in Denver. But the road's gotta catch up to them eventually. This is where it will.

Seattle is on the road too, which isn't the greatest thing. But this is a different Seattle team than the one that stunk on the road last year. Granted they weren't great away from Qwest this year, but they're a very good team. I can't believe Seattle is actually the underdog. I would take Seattle getting the points in this one easy.

I think the quarterbacks in this game are pretty evenly matched - but the edge might actually go to Pittsburgh because Ben Roethlisberger has a better set of receivers, I think, than Matt Hasselbeck. I think Seattle's got a better running game (Bettis isn't a threat until the Steelers are inside the 20), and I think people are going to be surprised by how well the Seattle defense plays tomorrow night.

I'm going with Seattle, 27-21.

I'm rooting, in a player pool that I'm in, for Jerome Bettis to score two more touchdowns than Shaun Alexander. I also need neither of the quarterbacks to throw a touchdown. I'm not sure how my pick will happen, with me still winning the pool...so I have a couple of different rooting interests in this game. I can root for the kickers to have good games. 9 field goals for the Seahawks, 3 touchdowns for Bettis.

I find it funny (or pathetic) that the Steelers made it to the Super Bowl this year as a 6 seed when, at the beginning of the year, filled with naive hope, I wrote that the Jets would need to win the division, because it's near impossible for a team to make the Super Bowl without playing a post-season home game (or even without home field advantage throughout). This was after the Jets lost in Pittsburgh, after winning in San Diego in last year's playoffs. So the Steelers have accomplished a lot already, just by getting to the big game. But I think, sad for them, it's all over tomorrow night. Let the record show that I think, at this point, I am rooting for the Steelers to win. But I'm picking the Seahawks to beat them. See you in baseball season.

Not much to talk about with the Patriots playing as I write this. The only development I will get to tonight is Chad Pennington being ornery.

Pennington, after Sunday's game, tried to walk out of the lockerroom without speaking to the media, but he was held up by a Jets PR guy. Pennington stuck around, spoke for about a minute and a half, and then bolted. He was very short and terse with the media on Sunday. Teammates said, "Chad had something to prove".

On Monday, Pennington apparently ripped into reporters because of the things they wrote leading up to the Seahawks game...or more accurately, following the Pittsburgh game. I have not seen or read these quotes, but I will write more about this scenario tomorrow. All I'll say for right now is that if Pennington was playing angry on Sunday, keep playing angry....he played one of his better games of the season on Sunday.

One e-mail to get to (thankfully Dave is no longer charading as a Brighton resident during his Christmas holiday):

"Dear Johnnyjets,
Is it possible that the AFC East could provide three (3) playoffs teams?
Is there a scenario where the Jets and Bills would win both wild cards?
Is this unprecedented?
Would that make the AFC East the best division in football?
Would it make it the bet division insports?
What do you think the best division in sports is? NL East,probably, you jamoke.

Signed,Dave in Mauldin, SC...home of the flourescent orange Mauldin Mavs visor."

Well, Dave, it's a shame the Dolphins tanked this year, because the AFC East would definitely be the best division in sports if the Dolphins were the slightest bit competitive. Well, since Miami is competitive right now with the Patriots, I'll go along with it. Sure, the AFC East is the best division in sports...and definitely the NFL. I think the Bills have a real shot at the wild card - having won 8 of their last 10 games. Here's the breakdown of the 4 wild card potentials (not counting the Jets, who hopefully get in even at 10-6):

BUF: at SF, vs. PIT
BAL: at PIT, vs. MIA
JAX: vs. HOU, at OAK
DEN: at TEN, vs. IND

I think all of those teams will lose one of their final two games, except for Jacksonville. So I think the Jaguars get into the playoffs, proving you, Dave from Mauldin, SC, quite prescient, picking Jacksonville to do something big early in the year.

One other note I wanted to touch on before I go to bed - the Eagles are so screwed. Even if they've proven they can win without Terrell Owens, which I don't think is the case, I think his broken leg is going to mess with their heads so much that they might lose their first playoff game -not even making it to the NFC Championship game. Just a thought. Look for Atlanta (or an even crappier team) to make it to the Super Bowl out of the NFC.

Jets 37, Seahawks 17

Ah, good ol' reliable Seattle. Nothing like a good choke job by the Seahawks to make you feel better about your team. But seriously, folks, the Jets played very well, improving to 10-4 on the season, and moving to within a win of a playoff spot. (For you non-Jets fans out there, just realize that 10 wins in a season is still a pretty novel thing to us Jets fans...we're used to double digits in the losses column.)

Chad Pennington came back from last week's disaster in Pittsburgh with an awesome game. 253 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. Classic Chad. His throws looked as good this week as they looked bad last week. So maybe his arm isn't in as bad shape as I thought. I'll get a look in person next week against New England.

Curtis Martin rushed for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns (LaMont Jordan added 84 yards on the ground) as the Jets racked up 482 yards of offense. Very nice. The only negative spot on offense came in the third quarter when Anthony Becht dropped a touchdown pass on the goal line. He got booed off the field for the second consecutive home game. The Jets' tight ends were being talked up all week as needing to become a bigger part of the offense, and Becht had just two passes thrown his way (including the dropped TD), and Chris Baker had one catch. Maybe they'll throw Becht's way a lot more in the coming games...or they're saving it for the post-season. Either way, it doesn't look like Anthony Becht will be back in a Jets uniform next year. The good news, though, is that uncharacteristically, after Becht dropped the TD pass, the Jets went right back to the air from the 7-yard line and Pennington threw a touchdown to Santana Moss. Usually the Jets would run it into the ground and settle for a field goal in a situation like that.

On the ensuing drive, the Seahawks drove down to the Jets' 1-yard line, and the defense held, forced fourth down, and then Shawn Alexander fumbled the ball into the end zone. The defense has been playing so well...and another second half shutout - that's starting to mean something to me now. Terrell Buckley got burned again for a touchdown (so did Donnie Abraham), but if the defense keeps playing like this, who knows what could happen.

Doug Brien had a couple of hiccups, missing an extra point and a field goal, but he tends to do that once or twice a year. So I think it's out of his system.

The officiating was once again horrid. Seattle had a few gripes in that game, nothing that changed the course of the game, really, but the Jets caught a couple of breaks. I think...I'm not really positive. I have a bad feeling that someone's season this year is going to hinge on a bad call by the referees....I hate when that happens. It better not be the Jets. I just feel that no matter what, the refs tend to favor the home team, and it gets aggravating...especially when the Jets' path to the championship takes them on the road.

Moving on to some other news from Sunday - the Broncos collapse has been unreal. They got whipped by the Chiefs on Sunday, and with the Jaguars and Bills winning, (and pending the outcome of Sunday night's Baltimore game), the Broncos have put themselves almost out of the playoffs. Speaking of the Bills winning, that Jets' loss to the Bills isn't looking so horrible anymore. (Although I'm still a little upset by it.) But the Bills, after starting off 0-4 (remember, I called them the best 0-4 team in football...you can look it up), are now 8-6. And I called them the best 0-4 team in football because they lost some really, really close games back in September. They could easily be 9-5, 10-4...even 11-3 right now. I think. The Jaguars snuck by them, the Jets beat them by two...Bledsoe was driving the Bills to tie against the Patriots late in the game....anyway, the fact remains the Bills are 8-6...but they're making a playoff push.

A couple of e-mails from Dave (not in Brighton this week):

"Dear JohnnyJets,
I know you eschew the Sunday morning pregame shows, so I wanted to let
you know that Chad Pennington was the guest on Fox's "Ten Yards with
TB" segment.
As a dutiful JJDBSDC agent, I took notes so you could have blog fodder in case Al takes the week off.
If you're not familiar with the segment, Terry Bradshaw gives you 2 choices, and you pick one of them. Chad's picks in CAPS.
call your own plays/COACH CALLS THE PLAYS
big arm/OK ARM
zero int's/FOUR TD'S
rhodes scholarship/HEISMAN TROPHY
rock and roll/COUNTRY WESTERN
boxers/briefs
Chad said BOXER-BRIEFS.
METS/yankees
Chad offered that he likes the Islanders, too.
namath/MONTANA
Before making his choice Chad said "Joe, I love you," which is almost as funny as "Joe, I wanna kiss you."
LARRY THE CABLE GUY/jeff foxworthy
Mets? He must be nuts. Maybe they taped it before the Pedro business.
Dave in Brighton"

Dave, thank you. But to be honest, I saw an ad for the pregame show Saturday while watching Redskins/49ers, so I knew about Pennington and Bradshaw. So I tuned in to see that. He was very entertaining...as usual. Pennington is a good interview, as is Tom Brady. Thanks for the transcript, though...and you don't know how happy I was to hear Pennington roots for the Mets. Perhaps there's a shot I'll fire up johnnymets.blogspot.com again.

Dave checked in again later in the day:

"Dear Johnnyjets,

Granted I didn't see the game because I'm out of market, but what's up
with the Jets running up the score on poor helpless Seattle? 37-14?
How offensive.

Dave in Brighton"

An interesting thing about the Jets offensive output, Dave. After the Jets lost 20-13 to the Bears in 2002, jeopardizing their playoff hopes, they reeled off games of 30, 42, and 41 points against New England, Green Bay, and Indianapolis as they won the AFC East, then their divisional playoff game. The Daily News made the comparison today, with the Jets coming off the loss to Pittsburgh, that maybe the Jets would start another offensive streak like that....so far, the Daily News is right. 37 points. Granted, it was the Seattle Seahawks defense, but it was a good game plan. I'll take it. Let's do the same thing to New England next week.

That's all I have for today...this will be a big week for the blog. Thanks for reading, and we'll do e-mails tomorrow (and the rest of the week, if there's enough e-mail).

Good news - after I put this preview in, I'll try to finish up my final paper for the semester, then I'll hopefully get back to daily Jets updates.

And I just checked the e-mail, and there's a huge amount to talk about. So I'll post the picks, then respond to all the mail. Thanks for reading and writing, I apologize for the delay in the replies...it's the schoolwork (lest you think I am being rude).

So we'll start with the Seahawks at Jets, Sunday 1pm, on FOX25 (one of my many former employers) here in Boston.

The Jets see this as a must-win game, which I'm not so sure is a good thing. I have a feeling that this is going to be a real nail-biter, but I think the Jets will win. This is one of those games where the Jets have the potential to choke...bad. But there's only one team in the NFL with as spotty a history as the New York Jets, and that is the Seattle Seahawks. They need this game worse than the Jets do, and they will play worse than the Jets.

John Abraham again will not play, but as I've been saying, Bryan Thomas can fill in ably. There's a chance we'll be seeing a lot more of Derrick Strait, which is good, because Terrell Buckley has been killing the Jets lately. The secondary is going to be huge this week, because the Seahawks can throw the ball...but I'm not really worried about the defense. They'll be fine. Especially David Barrett, who has been fun to watch the past few weeks - I hope teams continue to test him - he makes a great deflection at least once a week.

But it's the offense I'm worried about. This week the Jets said Chad Pennington is not at 100%...which we already knew by watching him the past couple of weeks. But he says he knows he can be effective the rest of the season. The Jets are supposedly going to try to get the ball to their tight ends more these last few games...which to me might mean that Pennington can't get the ball downfield. But I expect the Jets to be able to do enough on offense to beat Seattle...I'm going to say Jets 31, Seahwaks 24.

That would mean the Jets cover the six and a half point spread....which seems like a lot...but I guess the Jets win by a touchdown. But you don't care about my picks - you want to know who The Wife picked - so here they are, Saturday games first:

PIT -10.5
WAS -3.5
ATL -3.5
NYJ -6.5
HOU +1.5
JAX +3.5
MIN -3.5
CLE +9.5
DAL +12.5
BUF -2.5
STL +1.5
NO +7.5
TEN +1.5
DEN +1.5
BAL +8.5
NE -9.5

The Wife suffered a setback last week, just hitting 7, she's down to 136 overall. Still not bad.

OK. Let's attack the mailbag, lots to get to.

"Word up, yo! Far be it from me to complain. And I give you all the credit in the world for keeping the web site afloat amidst the craziness of your life. However, I have to admit that the "analysis" on the site is letting me down a bit lately. I give you credit for making an assertion (vague and general though it was) that it seems unrealistic for the Jets to win 2 or 3 road games in the playoffs, but I GUARANTEE you won't pull the trigger on picking them to lose a specific game when the time comes. And you of course asserted that the Jets will beat the Patriots in two weeks. C'mon. Do you really believe that? (Then again, why wouldn't they? The Pats have already lost one game in their last 28, right?!)

AND THEN, you made some sort of half-cocked reference to the Colts probably putting up 45 points on the board against New England in the playoffs "with the way the Patriots are playing." Huh? Correct me if I'm wrong, but since losing their two starting cornerbacks (and usually playing without their third cornerback as well) and routinely using a wide receiver and a back-up linebacker at db, the Patriots have held the Rams to 20 points in St. Louis (tough to do with a full complement of db's), held Drew Bledsoe below 100 yards passing while annihilating and embarrassing the Bills, held the Chiefs to 19 points in Kansas City (even harder to do than holding down the Rams in St. Louis), essentially shut out the Ravens (yielding only a field goal after 30 yards of penalties on the same play), and held the Browns (who, granted, suck) to 7 points before pulling all of their healthy starters before finally having a tough day on defense against the Bengals. So I guess my final question is a two-parter... 1) What evidence exists that the Patriots' defense is prone to struggles? 2) Aren't they only likely to get even better as their three cornerbacks return from injury, all presumably before they would meet the Colts in the playoffs? (Oh yeah, and don't forget that the Colts are like 0-71 with Manning against the Pats and always give up a ton of points.)

Sometimes, all I can do is shake my head as I think about your web site while standing in my crease and watching my teammates in their winged helmets pepper the goalie at the other end of the ice!

Faithfully Yours,
Al Montoya
Ann Arbor, MI"

You're right, I probably won't pick against the Jets because I think they CAN win all of their remaining games. And I do think the Jets will beat New England next week at home. But we'll get to that next week. I'll watch the Patriots' defense this week against Miami and make another judgment before they play the Jets, but the fact is, their defense has not been as good overall this season as in the past (I know, they're 12-1, blah, blah, how can their defense not be that good!?!? It hasn't, I'm sure, if you look at the stats, and from what I saw of last week's game [admittedly, not much], they look like they're slipping, rather than improving.) I'll re-evaluate after Monday night's game. Let's move on....that's not the last we heard from Al. We'll get back to him.

"Dear JohnnyJets,

For entertainment purposes only, how do you think the Steelers, Eagles, and Pats will finish the season?

Is it possible there will be 3 teams at 15-1? Would that be historic?

Have you done the math to figure out who the Jets might face in the playoffs? Could they beat the Colts on the road?

Is your wife ranked No. 1 in the world yet? Have you ever ranked No. 1 in the world in anything? Spelling, maybe? Or blogging?
Dave"

Thanks for writing Dave. A quick look at the remaining skeds -
NE - Miami, Jets, 49ers - 2-1 (loss to Jets), finish 14-2.
PIT - Giants, Ravens, Bills - 2-1 (Bills or Ravens might pull the upset), finish 14-2
PHI - Cowboys, Rams, Bengals -2-1 (I think the Rams or Bengals pull off upsets - Bengals perhaps because of rested starters) - finish 14-2

I haven't done the math on who the Jets would face, but figure the Jets get the wild card (which is still a risky gamble), and figure NE and PIT get byes...the Jets can beat either San Diego or Indy on the road. The Jets already beat the Chargers at San Diego this year, and the Jets have proven in the past they can win in Indy. And although I picked the Colts to win the AFC, if the Jets face them in the first round, I can see the Jets winning. Remember 41-0 a couple of years ago? And that was with Ted Cottrell as the defensive coordinator - the Jets have a better defense this year. The interesting thing about the Jets playoff hopes this year is that they can win in New England, in Pittsburgh, and in Indianapolis or San Diego. So it's a long shot to get to the World Series as a wild card, but the Jets could do it this year....but let's worry first about beating Seattle and earning a playoff spot first.

As for your other questions: after last week's setback, unless The Wife hits 16 this week, she will not be ranked number one in the world (she is, however, in the playoffs in fantasy football. I am not.). I've never ranked number one in the world in anything...I won my school's spelling bee, but lost the District spelling bee, so scratch spelling. Not blogging, there are far better bloggers, I'm sure. I still manage to maintain something of a life. I've never even been on a Little League championship team. We came close once - we went 16-0, then lost in the playoffs.............man. That's a sad memory. I have gotten birthday cards telling me I'm #1 though, so I must be number one in something in the world.

Thanks for writing Dave. Kevin has written back with a qualifier on last week's abbreviation:

"JJDBSDC

Johhny
Jets
Dot
Blog
Spot
Dot
Com

Its not vulgar...but that's for assuming that since it was from me, it was. Probably a good guess.

kevin"

Thanks Kevin. I like it. Maybe I'll put JJDBSDC on my merchandise.

OK. One more time from Al:

"Where are the picks? And where are the email replies? Tuesday came and went without email replies. (And I don't want to read any excuses like, "I replied to emails on Monday." If you choose to do that, it should not count as a replacement, we faithful readers should get an EXTRA DAY of email replies!)

This web site has really gone downhill in recent days!

By the way, what are the chances that you're a Mets fan as well? (That sure is a swell looking stadium they have in Flushing Meadows, but I digress...) If so, I want you to know that I wish you nothing but joy and happiness for the next four years with the lying, crying, whiny, manipulative, backstabbing, hypocritical primadonna pitcher! (One other thing, I happen to know a Boston reporter who went to Shea for the Pedro press conference. He said he has never encountered worse people than the New York media types. The photographers were bossing people around and pushing people out of the way. And at one point, one of the NY reporters snapped at my friend, "ENOUGH BOSTON QUESTIONS!!!" Great place, that New York! I can't wait to play there.)

-Al Montoya
Ann Arbor, MI"

If I ever get e-mail on consecutive days, rest assured I will post them that day. Tuesday is the regular e-mail day, but there will be follow-ups...sadly, it's just that people hadn't been writing me, so I hadn't checked the mailbag. I will be more vigilant.

And Al, you know darn well I am a Mets fan. Well, maybe was a Mets fan. I can't decide yet. Because I don't know if I can take four years of Pedro Martinez. All we need to know about Pedro is he spent his entire welcome to the Mets press conference badmouthing the Red Sox. Show a little class, jerk. You sound awfully offended by the reaction to the media...you sound a lot more like a member of the media than the future goaltender of the New York Rangers...just saying...is Al Montoya your real name?

By the way, Al - How about those BU Terriers beating your alma mater, Michigan, at Michigan, for the second year in a row?!?!?! GO BU!!

OK. Time to get some other work done. Then I'll step up the blogging for the playoffs - and maybe take my spot as #1 blogger!!!!!!! Go Jets.