OH RIGHT, THE DRAFT

I have been less than enthused about the NFL off-season. The Jets' late-season fade left a really bad taste in my mouth, and the frustrations over the years have slow-cooked to a boil right about now.

I'll be excited again in September, but I didn't really follow closely what had been going on this off-season.

But today's draft might change that a bit.

I didn't really think the Jets would go into the season with Kellen Clemens as their most likely option at quarterback. But it was looking more and more desperate if they didn't do anything at the draft.

I'm happy to report they did.
The Jets gave up a lot - but it should be worth it, drafting Mark Sanchez out of USC.

They traded their first and second round picks in this draft along with Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, and Brett Ratliff to Eric Mangini and the Cleveland Browns for the fifth pick, which they used to land Sanchez.

Here's why I'm confident:

1) If at no other position, USC quarterbacks have found success in the NFL....no matter how much playing time they got in college.

2) Sanchez seems to have a good head on his shoulders. The Jets, under Rex Ryan, will just be looking for him to make smart plays and not screw things up. Just manage the offense. Sanchez, probably the highest-profile draft pick in an otherwise drab personality year, handled himself very, very well throughout the process the past few weeks, and didn't screw it up for himself. I think that's pretty microcosmic of the job he'll have to do with the Jets.

3) It's not Kellen Clemens.

Listen, I'm sure Kellen Clemens is a decent guy. But I'll always hold it against him that he was the one pitted against Chad Pennington when Pennington should have been given a better deal than he was given with the Jets. And he didn't do well during that time, so I was not looking forward to that day when he eventually took over. Now we won't have to worry about that.

One final note - another reason I'm excited about this season is the coach, and the fact that it's not a Bill Belichik disciple taking over the team. Rex Ryan has not been afraid to speak his mind in the few months since he took over, and I like that. That was part of what made Herman Edwards fun as the coach of the Jets (when he wasn't telling bold-face lies).

Ryan has yet to steer the team wrong with any personnel moves, and I like what he's had to say.
I won't be saying much about the NFL between now and...I don't know...August? But I'll be thinking happy thoughts about the Jets and their new franchise quarterback between now and then.

A SUNDAY WITH NOTHING TO PLAY FOR

Strange Sunday. The final week of the NFL season, which means the fantasy league is over (for me, without playoffs, it's been long since over), and after the Giants lost to the Pats on Saturday night, I had no chance of winning anything in the confidence pool I'm in (I had been doing so badly that the past few weeks I just picked against the Patriots because everyone was picking them, just hoping their loss might benefit me financially). So that left me with nothing but 'the love of the game' on Sunday for the final day of the NFL season.

I watched much of the Jets-Chiefs game, knowing it would be the last time I saw the Jets play for months. I also hoped Chad Pennington would make an appearance in what was likely his last game in a Jets uniform (more on that later in the week). That didn't happen, but I think by watching the game, I have made my peace with Kellen Clemens. If he is the Jets' quarterback in 2008, so be it. I'll never love him...I don't know that I'll ever get very attached to a single Jet ever again...but I'll live with him. Amazingly, in a game just about everyone just wanted to go out and get it over with, the Jets and Chiefs went to overtime. The Jets did win, hurting their draft position a little, but I really don't know enough about this year's draft crop to judge whether or not that's a horrible thing. The way I see it, they should trade the pick and build up a stockpile of picks...unless there's one great player out there.

I want to spend a bit of time, though, talking about the Saturday night game, because that was the best game of the weekend.

I want to reiterate my claim - I do not think the Patriots will go 19-0. If they do, then yes, they can be considered the greatest team of all time. I don't think you can argue that. But they're starting to slip. They're beatable. And I just think 19-0 will be an incredibly hard thing to do. I don't know who it is that will beat them - and I think you can make the argument against me that they will go 19-0, just having to win 3 more games, after a bye week. But those three games won't come easy...and I think the game plan to beat them is out there. It just needs to be executed.

The Giants looked like they had that game plan in place and all but had the Patriots beat Saturday night. But Eli Manning did them in. I've never seen a player go from having a great game to an awful one quicker. Eli looked like Peyton in the first half and on the first drive of the second half, when the Giants took a 28-16 lead. Then it's like he suddenly realized he was on the verge of the biggest win of his career, got nervous, and played horribly, when all the Giants needed was a few first downs to keep the Patriots' offense off the field.

That's not to take the credit away from the Patriots. Tom Brady has the opposite gift of Eli -nothing rattles him. He knew he'd win that game, and went out and did it. The Patriots' defense sensed Eli was getting rattled, and rattled him some more. Brady to Moss didn't work once, so they went right back to it. That's why they're 16-0.

But I still don't think they'll go 19-0. Part of this rationale is my studid heart getting in the way of my head...I just don't like this team. At least with the past few Patriots championship teams they had players you could respect and, in spite of yourself, root for. Those players drowned out the Bill Belichicks and Rodney Harrisons, at least in my view, and made the team tolerable. But this year it seems like the Patriots have suddenly gotten classless, and there are more Rodney Harrison-types than not. There's a lot more "me" guys there...and I'm surprised it's working for them so well. But that's another part of the reason I think their season will end with a loss.

AROUND THE LEAGUE
1) A couple of years ago I was all over the Jaguars, and how, at 12-4, I thought they were fakers. I think I called them the 'worst 12-4 team of all time'. Well, this year they're 11-5, and I think they're better than the 12-4 team. I am buying into David Garrard - I think the Jaguars made a great decision going with him over Byron Leftwich. I've been anti-Fred Taylor the past few years, thinking he's washed up. I take it all back. He's had a fantastic year, and he's splitting time with Maurice Jones-Drew. I think the Jaguars could be dangerous in the playoffs - but it hurts them that they have to go on the road.

2) For you die-hards out there, Anthony Becht is still playing with the Buccaneers. He gets decent playing time (I think, because I haven't spent much time watching Tampa this season), but he is mainly a blocking tight end. He finished the season with 5 catches for 20 yards, but two of those catches were for touchdowns, and another two for first downs. Watch for him next week against the Giants - he always came up big for the Jets in big games.

SITE UPDATE: I think I'll make my playoff picks by Friday night, and you are free to post comments with your picks. I'll pick against the spread, and using the over/under. I urge you to do the same.

Also, please note that I have transferred all of the Jets content to this site, and the Jets site is effectively no more. Thanks.

NO CIGAR

I have lots more to say about the Mitchell Report, but I guess I'll save that for the rest of the week. For now, I'll focus on how the Jets came oh-so-close to making history. What's the biggest difference between a 13-0 team and a 3-10 team (or 14-0 and 3-11 now)? If you watched the Jets-Patriots game on Sunday, you saw a number of examples.

First of all, Kellen Clemens made the biggest mistake of the game for the Jets, and he only threw one pass. It was a good rush by Richard Seymour, but you can't throw that ball - and if you are going to throw it, you had better make sure that ball goes out of bounds. Throwing an interception right there (on the five-yard line, returned for a touchdown) is a killer.

But then it dawns on Jets fans (or, at the very least, me). I never envisioned, even when I blocked out my common sense, that Kellen Clemens could figure out a way to beat the Patriots. I rationalized that maybe the Jets could get a defensive touchdown and a couple of field goals. But Clemens is really hurt. And the backup.....could it be.....[cue the dramatic music].....what? Brad Smith? Seriously, Eric Mangini?


The Jets went with about the most predictable offense in the world by bringing in Smith to run the ball, and Pennington to pass it. (Predictability - not a formula for success against New England.) There was absolutely no threat of Brad Smith throwing the ball when he was in the game. One play worked - a 49-yard run by Leon Washington on an option. But everything else, the Patriots read perfectly. The Jets finally found some rhythm when Pennington got to run the show a bit. And I was loving it.

But Pennington was plagued by the exact same problems he had when he was the starting quarterback - mistakes by everyone else. Pennington did a great job - 25-38, 186 yards. (For the record, Tom Brady was 14-27 for 140, with an interception.) And in the second quarter, when the Jets blocked a field goal, and ran it in for the touchdown, it was suddenly a 10-7 game, in favor of the Patriots, and the Jets had life.

Unfortunately, the Patriots got (of all things) a blocked punt on the next possession, scored a touchdown a couple of plays later, and the Patriots took a 17-7 lead into halftime.

It was in the second half that Pennington's efforts were wasted. First, in the third quarter, trailing 17-7, the Jets should have had a field goal. The wind was at their backs, and Pennington completed to Chris Baker, and he was short of the first down yardage, but fumbled. 13-0 teams don't fumble in situations like that. 3-10 teams do. No points for the Jets. Patriots ball.

The Jets ended up getting a field goal to make it 17-10 (could have been 17-13), then the Patriots kicked one to make it 20-10 (could have been 20-13). The Jets drove down the field in the fourth quarter, and Pennington hit Justin McCareins with a perfect throw from 7 yards out in the back of the end zone for a touchdown. But McCareins bobbled the throw. Pennington does not have a strong arm. There's no excuse for bobbling that pass. So the Jets have to settle for a field goal, and Mike Nugent misses it. But that's all on McCareins. So instead of a situation that could have possibly tied the game at 20, the Jets turned the ball over and lost the game.

This was frustrating, because the Jets could have won the game. They put enough pressure on Tom Brady to force him to make mistakes, they had their opportunities, they just didn't take advantage of them. But that's why they're 3-11. And that's why the Patriots are 14-0.

PREDICTION: I still stand by my thought that the Patriots will finish the regular season 16-0. But I believe they will not go 19-0 - I think they'll lose in the post-season.

AT LEAST I HAVE THIS: When the 49ers upset the Bengals Saturday night, my thoughts turned to the NFL standings, and the fact that the Patriots own the 49ers' first-round pick. At that point, the Niners were a top five pick. But with the 49ers win, coupled with the Jets' loss, and the Ravens' loss to the Dolphins (among other games) there are now 8 teams with the 49ers at 4-10 or worse. The 49ers still have Tampa Bay and Cleveland on their schedule - so it looks like 4-12 for them - hopefully those other teams do just as poorly and that pick at least stays around 8 or higher.

THE DOLPHINS ARE REALLY BAD

JETS 40, DOLPHINS 13

I can't say I was rooting for the Jets this week...but I am glad that they didn't become the one win on the Dolphins' record.

It's hard to remember now, because of how poorly the Dolphins have played in recent years, but there's no one in football I hate more than the Dolphins. I would love for them to be the team that matched Tampa Bay's mark of futility by going winless for an entire season.

And when you see a team give up 40 points to the Jets, you have to figure they're not going to beat anyone the rest of the way. Thomas Jones hadn't been able to get in the end zone all season...he did against the Dolphins.

In 12 games, the Jets have now scored more than 30 points just three times. Once was against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have an awful defense, and still managed to find a way to stop the Jets and win the game. The other time (besides Sunday) was the other time the Jets played the Dolphins, a 31-28 Jets win.

The Dolphins could win a game this year. They still have to play Buffalo, Baltimore, New England, and Cincinnati. Desperate teams sometimes accomplish major upsets...I don't think Miami will beat the Patriots, but they could upset the Bills or Ravens. The other side of that, though, is no one wants to be that team that loses to the Dolphins...exhibit A was Sunday in Miami. If the Jets can do it, and put up 40 in doing so, the Dolphins don't have a chance against anyone else.

One last point about the Jets before we get back to the hot stove talk the rest of the week: One positive thing out of this season has been the different throwback uniforms teams have worn. While some have been misses (the Eagles come to mind), the Jets have been a hit, wearing the gold and blue of the New York Titans (the name the Jets had before they became the Jets). (On a personal note, and in the interest of full disclosure, yellow and blue are also my favorite colors.) Each team wore the throwbacks a couple of times this year - I think the Jets are done, because they also wore the Titans uniforms against the Giants in October. I noticed last week the Browns had numbers on their helmets - I think that was their throwback edition. Anyway, I love those types of things. Here's a look at the highlight of the Jets' 2007 season - the uniform of a team that no longer even exists (it's my blog, so I choose to show a picture of Kellen Clemens getting sacked. Petty? Yes.):

IS ESTRADA NOTHING MORE THAN A CHiP?

All puns aside (I've never seen 'CHiPs', so I don't even know if that title makes sense), I'm not sure I understand this Johnny Estrada deal. First I'll clarify a few things, then I'll get into what the story appears to be.

Clarifications
I wrote last week something along the lines of not reading that Estrada has been a clubhouse problem, so I wasn't sure why he is now on his fifth team in seven years. After the deal, reading newspaper articles, I read about the fact that Estrada clashed with his pitchers in Milwaukee and had some conflicts with his coaches (there was a near-fight with either pitching coach Mike Maddux or manager Ned Yost in Milwaukee...I've read conflicting reports about who it was...might have been both). So I guess he's a hothead. Probably not more so than LoDuca. Estrada, though, is supposedly not a great handler of pitchers....again, not much different than LoDuca.

Also, Estrada is not very good at throwing out runners attempting (and usually succeeding) to steal. He threw out something like 8% of runners last year. But I think, according to what I've read, the Mets think the surgeries Estrada underwent after the season will improve that stat for him.

Now the speculation
Now that all that's out of the way, here's what's being speculated:
1) I've read that it's highly unlikely Estrada will be on the Mets' Opening Day roster. I don't know who the Mets would have as a catcher if this is the case, because I don't think they view Ramon Castro as an everyday guy.
2) The Mets might just have acquired Estrada (for Guillermo Mota, so it was worth doing) as leverage, so other teams can't hang the fact that they don't have a catcher over them when they try to make deals for other players. Now it looks like they have the catching hole plugged, and they can't get roped into taking a catcher or someone they wouldn't want, and it gives Omar Minaya more freedom to make a deal for a frontline starter. I'm not totally sure I understand this viewpoint, but there it is.
3) Instead of number 2, and I understand this point a whole lot better (but I'm also not a GM, so do I really need to understand all of these things?), Estrada could be a bargaining chip in another deal, and he'll just get turned around in said deal.

The bottom line here is that I like Johnny Estrada, and if he is the Mets' starting catcher on Opening Day, I'm happy with that. But I suspect this won't be the last time this off-season that I'm writing about him.

HOPE YOUR THANKSGIVING WAS BETTER THAN KELLEN'S
Meanwhile, I would be remiss if I didn't take the opportunity to write about Thursday's debacle by the Jets. It wasn't so much a debacle for me, though. I had the Dallas defense in my fantasy league, so in addition to rooting against Kellen Clemens, I had the opportunity to root for the Dallas defense to do well. (I loved the Terrence Newman interception return for a touchdown.)

I learned this on Thursday: You have a much higher probability of successful cheering when you root against the Jets than when you root for them. I won't be doing this forever - it'll just last the rest of this season (except, maybe, when they play New England) - but it was an interesting Thanksgiving experiment.