I HAVE DFS

I've never hated the Mannings. I know a lot of people are bothered by them, sick of them, feel they are overexposed. I don't mind them - I find them quite likeable. I'm not crazy about Eli's forcing the Chargers' hand in the draft, and I love when the Jets beat either Manning, but on any other week, I often find myself rooting for them.

I also enjoy their commercials.
For some reason, I can't find any video to put on here, but this year's overexposure of the Mannings comes in the form of DirecTV ads for the Sunday Ticket. The premise of the commercial is "DFS" - Displaced Fan Syndrome - the people who need Sunday Ticket the most are people who are living outside of the city of the team they root for. Archie Manning tells us he first got DFS when Peyton went to play in Indy, then again with Eli in New York (not like he didn't contract that bit of DFS on his own, but that's another story for another day).

But I can relate. Because I have DFS.

Had it since 1996, since every football season was mostly spent in Boston while I was in college. Lots of time spent breaking down the NFL schedule, figuring out when the Jets were not playing the same time as the Patriots, so I could figure out the Sundays they would be on free TV.

It was always a waste when, like this Thursday, the Jets played the Patriots in a nationally televised game. I always wanted a Jets-Dolphins or some such game on Monday night, because I'd be able to see a Jets-Patriots game on CBS at 1pm on Sunday, and basically it was one less Sunday game I could watch.

But I digress. For four seasons now, I've found the cure to DFS, and I'm glad the Mannings finally put a label on my suffering. Say what you will about DirecTV - its limitations during rainstorms, its not-so-great customer service (so I've heard) - but I've had nothing but good experiences.

And it saves me a ton of money not having to find a bar with every game every Sunday.

MY THOUGHTS ON SUPER BOWL XLII

I wanted the Giants to win the Super Bowl, and prevent the Patriots from going 19-0. That, more than anything else, motivated my pick of the Giants over the Patriots. But I did believe that the game would be close - I did think that the Giants were capable of keeping the Patriots from scoring a lot of points, and if they did that, that they would have a shot at winning Super Bowl XLII.

But when the Patriots scored with about 3 minutes left, and the Giants were facing fourth down, and later third and long, I thought it was all over. And it was hard to get too disappointed, because as much as I believed the Giants could win the game, I never really expected that they would.

As soon as the game got underway, the Giants' chances started looking up - they controlled the clock in the first quarter, keeping the Patriots' offense off the field. Advantage: Giants.

Then the Patriots held them to a field goal. Advantage: Patriots.

The Giants had a tremendous pash rush, and Tom Brady got knocked down more than in any game I ever saw him get hit. Advantage: Giants.

The Patriots were still able to get in the end zone. Advantage: Patriots.

In the back-and-forth fourth quarter, the Giants looked like they would win, then lose, then they started getting breaks (breaks which usually go the Patriots' way), and they were able to pull it out. I never expected that they would. Going back to August, I thought the Giants would be awful this year. I thought Tom Coughlin would be gone. I thought the players would hate that he was back. I thought the Jets would have a more successful season - by a lot. There are a lot of things I was thinking as the game ended - here are my thoughts:

-I don't think this is why they lost (or at least, the number one factor of why they lost - it was probably a factor), but the Patriots got out of character this week. They were cocky. They don't get cocky - it's part of what has made them so successful. They had a target on their back, which said 18-0. To go around like they were going around Arizona the past week or so made that target grow bigger and bigger, in my opinion. Two pieces of evidence to support my theory:
1) When another team makes a prediction, or says something, a la Plaxico Buress saying the Giants would win 23-17, the Patriots usually let it go, and say, our actions on Sunday will speak for us. But Tom Brady (Brady of all people!) responded to Burress' comments, saying something like, "He thinks we're only scoring 17 points!?" In reality, they got 14.
2) I've mentioned this before - but Bill Belichick was downright charming with the media the week leading up to the Super Bowl. I have no distinct memory of previous media days, or the weeks leading up to his previous Super Bowls, but I don't remember Belichick talking so much to the media ever. He was talking about his summer plans, how successful the season was, etc. Almost like he was trying to make sure his image for the 19-0 team was a positive image. After the Super Bowl, we saw the real Belichick - one word answers, ornery, uncomfortable to interview. I don't really blame him - but it's his job to talk to the media, win or lose. He doesn't handle that too well in general, let alone after a Super Bowl loss. And the week leading up to the Super Bowl was really out of character. And I think a lot of the Patriots were out of character leading up to the Super Bowl.

-Tom Brady, on the other hand, is a class act. He really is, as football players go. He stood there post-game, answered all questions, didn't cut interviews short like Belichick did, and he gave decent soundbites. I understand it must be hard to do that after a tough loss - as a fan, if someone tried to interview me after a tough loss, I'd kill them. But that's not my job. It's the job of Belichick and Brady, and Brady handles it very well.

-Eli Manning's throw to David Tyree, which Tyree made a circus grab of against his helmet, after Manning eluded the defense, which looked to have a sack, is exactly why "In the Grasp" should NEVER be called in the NFL. I hate it. I understand it's meant to protect the quarterbacks, so they don't get slammed to the ground....but let them play. One of the most amazing plays in history happened as a result.

-Did you notice in Peyton Manning's booth, on one of the later replays, the girl standing next to Manning, after Eli threw the go-ahead touchdown, when Manning is cheering, that the girl was dying to give Peyton a high five and Peyton wouldn't even look at her? That was pretty funn.

-Again, I never watch Super Bowl halftime shows, so maybe I'm missing out - but I thought Tom Petty sounded awesome. I couldn't believe that he sounded so album-quality during halftime of the Super Bowl.

-If I was a fan of either team, I might have had a heart attack. That fourth quarter was way too exciting. I don't mean to make light of it, though - I wouldn't be surprised if some people did feel light-headed in that game. I can't even imagine if that were the Jets how I would have handled it. I get way too emotional in those situations.

-I know this sounds unbiased coming from a Jets fan, but this was not the greatest Super Bowl upset of all time. That conversation has to begin and end with the New York Jets over the Baltimore Colts. If not for Super Bowl III, Super Bowl XLII might never happen. You need to understand the history of the AFL-NFL merger to know how big that win was by the Jets...and though the game was a snorefest, it was the most important snorefest in history.

-About the only drawback in my mind is the fact that now the 1972 Dolphins are vindicated. But I think I can deal with that, because I've dealt with it all my life. I think I still hate Miami more than New England...but the gap is narrowing.

Here's my final word on the Patriots' 2007 season. For about half the season, they were one of the greatest teams of all-time - probably the greatest. But towards the end of the year, they became just a very good football team, even an excellent football team. But a beatable football team - not really the invinceable 16-0 team their record showed them as. Teams were getting close to beating them. Unfortunately for them, they lost in the worst spot imagineable. At 8-0 or 9-0, they were dominant. In the second part of the season, they were just another good 7-0/8-0 team. And 7-0 teams sometimes lose in the playoffs. The Patriots have been ripe for the picking for the last couple of months. On Sunday, they got picked.

THE SUPER PICK

The Super Bowl bye week is one of my least favorite events in all of sports. I despise it. Here are a couple of reasons why:

1) I overthink things. I actually prefer losing and being eliminated from my shares pool in the conference championship game weekend because otherwise I would have obsessed for these past two weeks over the Super Bowl bet.

2) There's not enough that goes on to keep me interested, and the media (not surprisingly) feels they have to cover every second of these two weeks. And we end up with a situation like Tom Brady's ankle - a non-story manufactured into a story. In other words, even though everyone and their brother knows it was a non-story, it was still everyone's top story.

3) I actually used the following words this week (the second week of the overblown coverage, which, I must stress, could cause damage to your sensibility): "Bill Belichick has actually been quite charming in all of these media availabilities."

It was actually this third thing, though, that (5 "th-" beginnings in a row!!) got me thinking (6 of 8!) the (7 of 9!) Giants had a chance. The Patriots seem awfully comfortable. I guess that would work in their favor...but when you reconsider that it might be confidence, or overconfidence...maybe the Giants can interpret it that way and use it to their advantage.

I suspect this will be a very tight game. I think the Giants have a real chance. And when it comes down to it, I need to stand by what I've been saying this entire season - I just don't see a team going 19-0. It just seems too hard. And I'll stand by that this one last week. If it happens, I will give the Patriots all of the credit they deserve. And if it doesn't happen, I'll be happy.

I worry about one thing with the Giants - Eli Manning. I'm as happy as anyone that he has come around this post-season. But I still think Eli has instances where he doesn't quite know what to do with the ball when protecting a lead, and for the Giants to win, he needs to figure that out. I have two times to cite where this happened: one was the playoff game against Dallas, where the Giants gave the Cowboys last opportunity after last opportunity with the ball because Eli couldn't run out the clock on offense (and he nearly turned it over). In that last regular season game, against New England, Eli threw one interception (the last time he turned the ball over, incidentally), and then failed to do anything effective in the fourth quarter as the Patriots came from behind to win the game. The Patriots could exploit that weakness again in this game.

I feel pretty strongly about one thing - if the Patriots score more than 30 points, I don't think the Giants can hang with them. I'm going to say it's the Giants' defense that is the key - hold the Patriots long enough, build a lead, then withstand a final push. That's the formula for a Giants win.

I think the most accurate thing I've heard during the two weeks between football games has been the comparisons between the Giants and the 2001 Patriots. No one was giving the Patriots a chance in that game, similar to many people with the Giants this year. These Patriots are like a bigger version of those Rams. I think the Giants do pull off a similar upset:
Another look, too, at the picks/standings through the conference championship games. For the Super Bowl, for the record, the Southern Bureau picks Patriots 32, Giants 21 (the pick has absolutely no bearing on his numbers in the Johnnymets Super Bowl squares pool), with Maroney scoring all of the touchdowns and winning the MVP. I guess I'll pick Eli as the MVP...I don't know who else would be that instrumental for the Giants.

THANK GOODNESS: I can't believe it took an extension of the deadline, but thank goodness the Mets have locked up Johan Santana. The numbers haven't been disclosed yet, but they'll be talked about next week. The topic shifts to baseball.....and NASCAR....next week.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES RECAP

That was an exciting day of football. The bad news: I lost my bet, so I'm out of my pool. The good news: I feel like this NFL season was worth it - we've got ourselves a new Super Bowl matchup. My thoughts:

PATRIOTS 21, CHARGERS 12
The Chargers blew this opportunity. When Tom Brady looks as bad as he looked in the early part of this game, you need to pounce, and pounce quick. All the Chargers could muster were field goals...and that's not going to do it. LaDainian Tomlinson may have been hurt - but continues to be invisible in playoff games. I need to stress this - he does get yards in playoff games - but he hasn't changed a playoff game, and he hasn't put up a super performance in a playoff game. And he was a non-factor (again, albeit with an injury) in this game. But the Chargers put up a fight with the likes of Michael Turner and Darren Sproles...and Phillip Rivers played but could not get the ball into the end zone.

One other thing worth commenting on - did you happen to see when Nate Kaeding made his third field goal - just before the half, which made it 14-9 Pats? He started celebrating like the Chargers had just taken the lead or won the game. Take it easy Kaeding...maybe if you had kicked like that in your other playoff games, a 14-9 deficit at halftime of the AFC Championship Game wouldn't feel like such a big deal.

GIANTS 23, PACKERS 20 OT
The only thing wrong with this game was that it hit the over. And I'll tell you why before I go any further. The third quarter - both teams got drives sustained (after defensive stops) by penalties. The penalty on the Packers, which seemed legit, leading to the Giants' TD, and then the Sam Madison penalty, which I've never seen a replay of, which seemed like payback for the Packers' penalty on the Giants' drive. I maintain had those penalties not happened, the game would have been 13-13 going into overtime, and I'd be sitting pretty in my pool. But I digress (I really am taking the loss in the pool a lot better than I thought I would).

The Giants pulled off the upset in another fantastic game by Eli Manning. I can't believe the maturing of Eli Manning that we're watching this post-season. And I'm surprisingly happy for him. I should clarify - I've never hated the Giants. I certainly dislike certain people involved with the Giants (not a Coughlin fan), but I'm pretty indifferent to the Giants. I'll root for them, I'll root against them, depending on the situation, but I'm indifferent. Mostly, usually, (not lately), I find them boring to watch, so I don't even bother. But I've jumped on their bandwagon, and I'm rooting for them this post-season. And I'm really happy for them and for Eli Manning. (And other than the Super Bowl matchup thing, I couldn't lose with this NFC Championship, because I like Favre and the Packers a lot, too.)

The Super Bowl matchup now is one that has never happened before (YES!). And it's interesting, because I'm willing to bet that never before has there been a Super Bowl matchup not where both teams played in the regular season (that's happened many times before), but where they played in the last week of the regular season. And if that's the case (and they have played in the last week of the regular season), I bet it wasn't as intense as Giants-Patriots in Week 17 of this past season. I wonder a couple of things right away:

1) Who does it benefit more? The Patriots, who game plan so well, or the Giants, who now have not only a recent game plan against this team, but a game plan that worked, and just needs a little tweaking?

2) The teams battled hard just a few weeks ago. Is there any carryover into the big game?

3) Don't you get the feeling the Patriots would rather not play the Giants? New York is a team that knows them, having already played them, and is hot. 10 straight wins on the road. Playing its best football. Things seem to be breaking for them. If I were New England, I'd rather be playing the Packers, with their old quarterback, instead of the Giants, with their young quarterback playing the best football of their career.

One last point - I wrote this week about the Giants being a better team without Jeremy Shockey (or, at least, Eli Manning being a better quarterback without him). I can't believe I totally forgot about Tiki Barber. What a difference it must make for the Giants to not have him badmouthing the coach, putting down the quarterback. He must be steaming over at NBC watching the Giants do this....and I kind of like that.

A COMPLETE SHOCK?

I'm thinking about this as I write it - I haven't really given it a lot of forethought....but is Eli Manning a better quarterback without Jeremy Shockey? Shockey broke his leg a month ago, and the Giants have won two playoff games since then.

Now, I need to say that I don't hate Shockey...but I don't like him very much. I think he's pretty overrated as a tight end, and I think, while he has matured from the guy who singlehandedly cost the Giants that playoff loss to Jeff Garcia and the 49ers a few years back (hey - how about the Giants exorcising those demons this post-season - Jeff Garcia, then Terrell Owens....is Kevan Barlow now playing for Green Bay? [Upon further research, there is no one on Green Bay's roster who played for San Francisco in 2002. That would have been cool.]), I think he's still pretty cocky and immature. And I don't like players like that.

But Shockey has been a go-to target for Manning over the past couple of years. And he drops a lot of passes. Could that bring Manning down in the early part of games, and affect the way he plays later on? Is this Kevin Boss kid a more reliable target, albeit one that won't get as many yards after the catch, and bolstering Manning's confidence throughout the game?

Maybe without having the Shockey crutch, Manning is getting the ball to Amani Toomer more, and Toomer is continuing to do what he's done pretty much all year, make big plays...but now he's making more big plays because he's seeing the ball more without Jeremy Shockey on the field.

Plaxico Burress is the same downfield threat, with or without Shockey. And the loss of Shockey hasn't seemed to hurt the running game.

The Giants have shown they can win without Shockey, no question about that. But could he be dragging down their quarterback? I'm going to say yes, because I've seen Eli Manning play the best football of his career without Jeremy Shockey the past month.

Championship game picks will be up Friday afternoon - put yours in the comments.

VOLEK FOR VICTORY?

Earl Morrall....Jeff Hostetler....Frank Reich....Tom Brady....Billy Volek?

All of the above are men who didn't start the season as their team's starting quarterback, but due to injury took over and led their team to great things (Morrall is '72 Dolphins Morrall, not '68 Colts, and Reich advanced to a Super Bowl, not winning it - but did have the great comeback against the Oilers). Could Billy Volek join their ranks?

The best chance for the Chargers to win the AFC Championship just might be their backup quarterback. Personally, seeing Volek in the game might give me reason to root harder for San Diego - I don't think I like Philip Rivers (more on that later in the week). But the Patriots are familiar with Rivers, and Volek brings an element of the unknown that could help San Diego's cause. (I am also familiar with Rivers, having been a fantasy owner of him in the 2006 NFL season, and I know what he is capable of...or, rather, not capable of. He's been playing much better than he really is...that's got to catch up with him sooner or later. Speaking of underachieving....LaDainian Tomlinson and the playoffs continue to be a mystery. Injury or underperforming....he needs to show up Sunday too. But I digress.)

I wrote on Sunday that I remember Volek making news in another part of his career. Could have been I was thinking of the fact that when he got some playing time with the Titans in 2004, he set a record for most passing yards in his first seven starts, throwing for more than any quarterback in NFL history in that situation. Now, that's mostly because the team he was playing for stunk, and that's how he had the playing time, and they were throwing the ball alot...but the fact remains, he did it. And he's capable of leading a team and getting the ball downfield. That's significant. If he has a healthy Antonio Gates, if Vincent Jackson plays as well as he's been playing, and if Chris Chambers continues to be the sparkplug he has been since joining the Chargers, maybe the Chargers can pull out the unlikely win.

But I think a change of face at quarterback might be the key for San Diego...I think Volek can take advantage of those weapons in a way that Philip Rivers can't continue doing.

AND IN THE NFC: Funny that Eli Manning and Philip Rivers are having all this success. Recently, over the Christmas holiday, I got into an argument with one of my uncles about Rivers vs. Manning. He's fed up with Manning (although, probably not anymore), and started railing about him and how he's no good, and the Giants should have kept Rivers instead of swapping draft picks with the Chargers a few years back. (This is the same uncle who hated Joe Torre, and thought he was an awful manager. I can't stand it, because the Yankees won championships under Torre - how can you not be happy with him?!)

I went off on Rivers, mostly based on my fantasy football experience, where Rivers cost me so many wins (and a playoff win, most notably) by playing awful games most of the season, with a couple of great games sprinkled in. I think Manning is going to end up being the better quarterback, I said, because I think the only reason Rivers does better is because he has LaDainian Tomlinson. Anyway, this was before the Patriots-Giants game, before Manning played horribly in that second half.

Of course, Eli played great against Tampa, and was good enough against the Cowboys...but I didn't think he was great. I think he gets nervous in tight situations, and that's deadly for an NFL quarterback. When all the Giants had to do was run out the clock, Manning got happy feet, and threw an incompletion on a big third down, giving the Cowboys the ball back. Same situation as against the Patriots. At least the Giants were ahead...I don't know that Manning could lead the Giants from behind in a situation like that, where the game is tight, in the playoffs. (I think he's done it in the regular season, but the stakes are different.) I hope I'm wrong, because I like Eli, and like seeing him do well...but I have my doubts when the game is on the line. Especially with a guy like Brett Favre on the other side.

A SUNDAY WITH NOTHING TO PLAY FOR

Strange Sunday. The final week of the NFL season, which means the fantasy league is over (for me, without playoffs, it's been long since over), and after the Giants lost to the Pats on Saturday night, I had no chance of winning anything in the confidence pool I'm in (I had been doing so badly that the past few weeks I just picked against the Patriots because everyone was picking them, just hoping their loss might benefit me financially). So that left me with nothing but 'the love of the game' on Sunday for the final day of the NFL season.

I watched much of the Jets-Chiefs game, knowing it would be the last time I saw the Jets play for months. I also hoped Chad Pennington would make an appearance in what was likely his last game in a Jets uniform (more on that later in the week). That didn't happen, but I think by watching the game, I have made my peace with Kellen Clemens. If he is the Jets' quarterback in 2008, so be it. I'll never love him...I don't know that I'll ever get very attached to a single Jet ever again...but I'll live with him. Amazingly, in a game just about everyone just wanted to go out and get it over with, the Jets and Chiefs went to overtime. The Jets did win, hurting their draft position a little, but I really don't know enough about this year's draft crop to judge whether or not that's a horrible thing. The way I see it, they should trade the pick and build up a stockpile of picks...unless there's one great player out there.

I want to spend a bit of time, though, talking about the Saturday night game, because that was the best game of the weekend.

I want to reiterate my claim - I do not think the Patriots will go 19-0. If they do, then yes, they can be considered the greatest team of all time. I don't think you can argue that. But they're starting to slip. They're beatable. And I just think 19-0 will be an incredibly hard thing to do. I don't know who it is that will beat them - and I think you can make the argument against me that they will go 19-0, just having to win 3 more games, after a bye week. But those three games won't come easy...and I think the game plan to beat them is out there. It just needs to be executed.

The Giants looked like they had that game plan in place and all but had the Patriots beat Saturday night. But Eli Manning did them in. I've never seen a player go from having a great game to an awful one quicker. Eli looked like Peyton in the first half and on the first drive of the second half, when the Giants took a 28-16 lead. Then it's like he suddenly realized he was on the verge of the biggest win of his career, got nervous, and played horribly, when all the Giants needed was a few first downs to keep the Patriots' offense off the field.

That's not to take the credit away from the Patriots. Tom Brady has the opposite gift of Eli -nothing rattles him. He knew he'd win that game, and went out and did it. The Patriots' defense sensed Eli was getting rattled, and rattled him some more. Brady to Moss didn't work once, so they went right back to it. That's why they're 16-0.

But I still don't think they'll go 19-0. Part of this rationale is my studid heart getting in the way of my head...I just don't like this team. At least with the past few Patriots championship teams they had players you could respect and, in spite of yourself, root for. Those players drowned out the Bill Belichicks and Rodney Harrisons, at least in my view, and made the team tolerable. But this year it seems like the Patriots have suddenly gotten classless, and there are more Rodney Harrison-types than not. There's a lot more "me" guys there...and I'm surprised it's working for them so well. But that's another part of the reason I think their season will end with a loss.

AROUND THE LEAGUE
1) A couple of years ago I was all over the Jaguars, and how, at 12-4, I thought they were fakers. I think I called them the 'worst 12-4 team of all time'. Well, this year they're 11-5, and I think they're better than the 12-4 team. I am buying into David Garrard - I think the Jaguars made a great decision going with him over Byron Leftwich. I've been anti-Fred Taylor the past few years, thinking he's washed up. I take it all back. He's had a fantastic year, and he's splitting time with Maurice Jones-Drew. I think the Jaguars could be dangerous in the playoffs - but it hurts them that they have to go on the road.

2) For you die-hards out there, Anthony Becht is still playing with the Buccaneers. He gets decent playing time (I think, because I haven't spent much time watching Tampa this season), but he is mainly a blocking tight end. He finished the season with 5 catches for 20 yards, but two of those catches were for touchdowns, and another two for first downs. Watch for him next week against the Giants - he always came up big for the Jets in big games.

SITE UPDATE: I think I'll make my playoff picks by Friday night, and you are free to post comments with your picks. I'll pick against the spread, and using the over/under. I urge you to do the same.

Also, please note that I have transferred all of the Jets content to this site, and the Jets site is effectively no more. Thanks.