REASON #5 - FANTASY BASEBALL

Reasons To Look Forward to MLB 2009

I am not a great fantasy baseball player. I go with my heart too often rather than my head. But the first step to recovery is admitting there is a problem...and slowly but surely I'm improving at fantasy baseball.

So this year my first pick in 'East Coast Bias' (the fantasy baseball league I pay the most attention to, featuring only the AL and NL East players, trophy pictured at left) was Ryan Howard. Last year I drafted Chipper Jones, for example (on-base percentage is a huge factor). I am using my head...not letting my hatred of those teams get in the way.

Now, none of this has paid off yet. My best showing in East Coast Bias was tying the Southern Bureau for first place two seasons ago (after blowing a season-long lead). But it will this year. I feel like I have a very good team (which is my typical late-March feeling).

This year, I'm also involved in another league which uses all MLB players. And instead of a random draft, which we've done in past years, we did a live draft. And that was fun - and I feel I have a great team there, as well. Headlined by none other than Ryan Howard.

So I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to fantasy baseball this year. Also games like 'Beat the Streak' on mlb.com, and my 'New Baseball Pool'...all little extras that will help move the season along.

And at the very least, if I've put the kibosh on Ryan Howard by putting him on my fantasy teams....the Mets will benefit from that.

This idea was going to originally be "Reasons to Look Forward to the Mets in 2009", but I realized there are probably going to be some general baseball reasons as well as Mets reasons. So I've expanded it. Most will have to do with the Mets. Also, I'm counting up, rather than down, as we head towards the baseball season, because I'm just not sure how many items there will be in this feature. We'll go until we hit Opening Day.

AM I READY?

My bracket's nearly busted. The temperature nearly hit 70 today. Many other years, this weekend is the start of the baseball season.

But I'm glad it's not...because I just don't feel ready.

I mean, I have my fantasy rosters drafted and the starting lineups are just about set. I have the notebook for the 'New Baseball Pool' set up, just waiting for Week 1 picks to be entered. I'm looking forward to the newspaper and Sports Illustrated baseball previews in the next week. So logistically I'm all set. It's mentally, I think, that I'm not.

And I think I know why.

It's this late start. For months, I've known that it was nearly a full week into April before the Mets would take the field (when it counts). And almost halfway through the month when they opened up the new stadium (I guess it could be worse - the Yankees' new stadium doesn't open until the 16th). So I guess I adjusted my mental state to account for all that.

Now, let's not confuse 'not ready' for 'not excited'. It's weird, though, this year - I really am more excited about the place than the event. I can't wait for Opening Day at Citi Field to see the stadium, and to go back all summer long, rather than to see the Mets play. Maybe that will change when I see the team in uniform for the first time (it probably will), but right now I'm excited for different reasons than I usually am.

I haven't even made season picks this year...which is too bad, because I'm in a non-homer mental state, and I might nail the picks.

Maybe I'll get around to that since it's still a while before we see any action that counts.

TWEET: So, I'm on Twitter. I have to credit The Wife - she thought it might be a good way to draw some traffic to the site. So since I want to get back into the everyday blogging life I've abandoned recently, I'll try whatever it takes to get some people to read. So if you're on Twitter, follow me. It's johnnymets. Not quite sure how it works, but I'll even follow you, too. When the season starts, I might be able to 'Tweet' more often than blog...so that might be a nice little add-on feature. We'll see what develops.

IT'S TIME

Used to be that this was a lull in the sports calendar for me.

The Super Bowl was over. Pitchers and catchers were reporting, sure, but baseball season for real was still a full month-and-a-half away, and March Madness was something I counted the minutes until.

But then I discovered a whole new reason to live for mid-February. And that time has once again arrived.

I speak, of course, of the Daytona 500. And NASCAR season in general.

OK, I'll admit - I don't really love NASCAR for the sport of it. I don't know strategy, I don't know much about the drivers/owners/teams. It's the only sport I've watched in which my fantasy league drove the interest.

But that was the whole point. I played Fantasy NASCAR to get me through these dull months between football and baseball...and it far exceeded my expectations. I look forward to the NASCAR races every Sunday afternoon - and when there's a Saturday night race, watch out! I love it.

I get disappointed when there's a rain delay. And I greatly enjoyed my one experience attending a race...even though there was a rain delay. And cancellation of the remainder of the race.

I don't get too upset after a race either. A successful fantasy week gives me a feeling of satisfaction. A bad week is forgotten after an hour or so.

And this year's season comes with an added bonus - the Major League Baseball season starts late because of the World Baseball Classic.

So don't worry about me when it's the fifth of April and the first game of the season is only just getting played that night. I'll have my NASCAR to keep me busy until then.

Starting Sunday.

A COUPLE OF CLICKS YOU MIGHT ENJOY

So maybe you're snowbound today, looking for something to do. Here are two things I've enjoyed lately that I'll plug:

1) I got an e-mail from a guy saying he enjoyed the site, and asking would I throw some info out there about an NFL campaign going on. Warning him that I probably don't have as many readers as he might think, I said sure. And it looks like it's for a good cause and everything is on the up and up, so here it is:

Chunky Soup is sending soup to the hungry through a campaign on their website. And all you have to do is click over to their site, and vote for your favorite team to win their weekly matchup. The top 8 teams then make the 'playoffs', and winners have food donated to their local food banks. Food being lots of cans of Chunky Soup.

I only wish I had known about this sooner, because the Jets look like they're going to comfortably beat the Seahawks this week (you can only vote once a day), but they're in sixth place in the AFC. I could have made a difference earlier in the season...maybe they'd be undefeated like the Bills currently are. So there's one option for you.

2) My second option is more dependent on your knowledge of sports. For a couple of months now I've been addicted to ESPN's Streak for the Cash game. You may have heard of this recently, because this month someone finally built a 25-game winning streak and won $1 million. I didn't find out about the game until October-ish, and didn't play regularly until November.

They give you a number of options for games each day - hockey, NBA, college sports, prop bets - and all you have to do is pick correctly. Your two options are to play for the longest streak or to play for the highest monthly total. Some people go nuts picking multiple games a day (you can pick your next game right after the previous one ends), going with every European soccer game, in hopes of getting an overwhelming amount of wins in a month. There's a bunch of different strategies you can employ.

Anyway, for me it's like mlb.com's 'Beat the Streak' all year long. If you play your picks right you can have some sort of rooting interest every night of the year. I bring this all up because they're starting new, with a new $1 million prize, on January 1st. I recommend you play.

You can find the game at espn.com, usually in the upper right-hand corner of the front page.

WHAT IT REALLY MEANS

Lots of talk recently about the idea that the NFL could 'lose' two exhibition games and extend the regular season by two games.

Of course, this would be exciting no matter what form it takes - whether the season would then start in mid-August (though that might feel like too soon) or extend into late February (a more sports-fan friendly solution).

Yes, there's a lot to consider - the money for the owners, how that gets spread among the players and coaches, and then there's the injury question - does an 18-game regular season mean more chances for players to get injured? Or does it make it less likely for someone to suffer a pre-season season-ending injury because they are regular season games and people aren't holding back, making themselves more susceptible to injury?

But when looking at all of these things, we're missing the most earth-shattering of them all. What does an 18-game football season mean for fantasy football leagues the world over?

I am partial to a 16-week fantasy football season - the first 14 weeks are regular season, with 15 and 16 filtering through a 4-team playoff. (I don't like having the championship decided in Week 17 with many stars being rested for a half or entire game.)

That certainly changes for an 18-game season. The translation for me would be 15 weeks of regular season, with the playoffs in 16 and 17. How much difference would that one week make?

Would 18 weeks of real football mean more teams are in playoff contention, and teams are less likely to rest players in the final week? Does that mean fantasy leagues like mine become 16-week regular seasons, with the playoffs in weeks 17 and 18?

Does the possibility of more regular season injuries mean longer benches for teams, to make sure you have enough players to cover those injuries?

If the season does shift to earlier in August, when will we draft?

I'm sure the gambling aspect will come up at some point when the talk of extending the season really heats up - I have a sneaking suspicion that a Week 1 regular season game sees a bit more money move than a Week 3 exhibition game.

But the fantasy football world could be shaken too. And if you ask me, that's the biggest difference between a 16-game or 18-game NFL regular season.

CAN'T WAIT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT

I'm getting my butt kicked in fantasy football today, but the real football is making the fantasy football take a back seat.

By the end of Thursday night the Jets could have first place in the AFC East to themselves.

The Bills have taken two back-to-back hits in the division - I have a feeling it's the Dolphins who are going to be the third horse in the party, and the Bills are no longer a worry. And the Jets have their home games remaining against Buffalo and Miami.

But Thursday night it's the Patriots - and the Jets are coming off a huge confidence-builder, crushing the Rams today, 47-3.

This was your textbook "trap" game - the Jets could have been caught looking ahead to Thursday's matchup with New England and laid an egg against a lesser St. Louis team. But they didn't.

And here are the positives heading into the Patriots game on Thursday night:

1) It hasn't been great owning him in a fantasy league, but Brett Favre has played two solid real (read: not fantasy) football games in a row. He's kept mistakes to a minimum and been a big reason why the Jets have beaten the Bills and Rams.

2) The defense has been playing better and better. The fact that they are scoring on returns for touchdowns has been icing on the cake - they have been suffocating lately.

3) The last time the Jets played New England they hung with the Patriots, but they let Matt Cassel beat them. Part of that, I think, is that they didn't know what to expect. Now there's lots of film on Cassel and the Jets can be better prepared for him.

4) For the first time in five or so years it seems like the Jets are ready to take a situation they are in by the horns - and know that doing it in Foxboro will send a message.

The message comes on Thursday night - and the end result will tell whether the Jets will be playing in January as a division champion or a wild card....or not at all.

LET THE SECOND TRIMESTER BEGIN

I discovered something the other day thinking about the way I watch baseball these days. My summer can basically be divided up into three unequal trimesters, and I'm very excited because the second of these is about to start. Interestingly, The Wife is also paying a lot of attention to trimesters these days...but I won't get into hers so much because it doesn't really involve my summer vacation.

FIRST TRIMESTER
This is the sort-of-official beginning to summer, when baseball starts, up until mid-June, when school ends. It's exciting, yet not fully formed (or developed). If I stay up too late in the evening watching the games to their very end, I wake up not feeling well in the morning. (Interestingly, The Wife also had some morning sickness.) I certainly follow things closely during this period of 2 to 2-and-a-half months, but I don't have instantaneous access to news, as I would in the....

SECOND TRIMESTER
This begins on Thursday, when school is done, and nothing stands between me and sports information until September (except the All Star break, when nothing happens). It's two-and-a-half full months of pretty much uninterrupted baseball. Basically, for the second trimester, I live like the Southern Bureau, able to make fantasy baseball moves or gather information at the drop of a hat, up-to-date on almost anything that happens....as though I had no other life. Like I was 11 again. And, let me again stress, like the Southern Bureau lives his life now.

THIRD TRIMESTER
Again, back to school, but with pennant chases and playoff pushes going on, my attention is a little more focused. I'm still feeding off the restful summer, so I can stay up late for some games, into the playoffs even, if necessary. And if the past couple of years hold true, my fantasy team is usually involved in some down-to-the-wire excitement, so that gets my continued intense attention if needed.

This year the beginning of my third trimester coincides with the end of The Wife's. It'll be like a clash of the titans. It'll be interesting to see which one of us gets to stick to their routine in the final trimester.

ANALYSIS THROUGH EIGHT WEEKS

I'm done with the most difficult part of the end-of-school stuff, and although it is still busy, I should be able to write more often. I'm also back from a Memorial Day weekend trip to Washington, D.C., and I have a lot to write about that. So I'll spend most of the rest of the week writing about the Nationals, unless the Mets pull a total 180 and fire Willie Randolph. I'll address that situation within this bi-weekly analysis:

MOST IMPRESSIVE: It's too bad when I have to spend more time thinking about the impressive feats of the past two weeks than the disappointments - because there have been more of the latter than the former. As a result, this space gets a big N/A. Lots of negatives, nothing impressive.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Still not positive - Thought the Mets were past their difficulties with Atlanta, and in Atlanta. But a 4-game sweep to start the week was a surprise, and took away anything good the Mets took by winning 2-out-of-2 in the Bronx.


LEAST IMPRESSIVE: How about the fundamentals? I've never seen so many people get picked off the basepaths on a team. Carlos Beltran doubled off third to end a game (against Washington, I think) after a line drive by Carlos Delgado to first. Jose Reyes getting picked off the bases three times in a little more than a week. David Wright getting doubled off first last week against Atlanta. It's disgusting. And in Washington on Sunday, in the game I went to, Lastings Milledge was on second base, and tried to go to third on a grounder to short. He was thrown out easily. A guy in front of me started cursing the team's discipline. Sadly, I thought it was typical of a Mets farmhand.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Willie Randolph. The above story shows that it's not all Randolph - because maybe there are some fundamentals missing at the minor league level. But you're starting to realize as a Mets fan that maybe Randolph is not the guy for this group of guys. I don't know who is (I don't know that I would want to see Gary Carter get thrown into that mess, but I sure would be excited if he was), but whoever it was would probably think twice before they bring up race. Now, I'm not going to pretend to think it's a perfect world and that everyone is treated equally, because I'm sure Randolph has faced situations where he's been treated differently because of the color of his skin. And by differently I mean awfully. But I think when it comes to managing (or coaching) in New York, it doesn't matter what color your skin is - it matters if you win or lose. And for the past year, he's lost more than he has won. So bring up Herman Edwards and Isiah Thomas all you want, just note that the common denominator, past skin color, is that they lost (one much more than the other). And make sure you also bring up Dallas Green, Jeff Torborg, Bobby Valentine (who did a lot of winning that was overshadowed by losing), and Art Howe when you talk about being treated badly. They all were. Because they all lost. The only difference is the Mets didn't own a television station at the time.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: I have a soft spot in my heart for Jon Lester. Part of it is because his story is a good one, and The Wife and I were part of his comeback, when it was announced upon our arrival in Cleveland that he was starting the game we were going to - his first game back from his cancer battle. He also hasn't done anything to turn me off of him, as so many other ballplayers have done. But his no-hitter last Monday outshines his losing effort Sunday as the best thing that happened in baseball the past two weeks. Plus, he's on my fantasy team.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: The Marlins and Rays still get mentioned here, because they're both in first place. But I'm going to stick with the Red Sox once more and say the effectiveness of Bartolo Colon was pretty surprising. It was against the Royals (see below), and tonight is against Seattle, so you can argue that he hasn't been tested yet, but I'm buying into what people are saying, that he's got a bit of a hunger (no pun intended) to prove himself again, and the fact that he's not that far removed from being dominant.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: The Kansas City Royals are back to being unimpressive. They just completed an 0-7 week, and lost again today, so they're on an 8-game losing streak. From mediocrity to much less than mediocre...all in a little more than a week.


BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: I mentioned Andruw Jones and the horrible season he's having. Now he's having surgery and will be out for a while - 4 weeks, I think. He continues to stink it up.

Check back the rest of the week - you might think you dialed up johnnynats.blogspot.com, but you'll be in the right place. I'll just be telling you about Washington, D.C. and Nationals Park.

E-MAIL

The Southern Bureau wrote on Saturday about Carlos Delgado:

"Will Carlos Delgado please make up his mind. Is he done or not?? A week ago he looked like his career was on the fast track to nowhere. Now he’s had a great week – including a big home run today. Johnnymets….what’s the deal??

-Southern Bureau"

Even though I know you are selfishly motivated here, Southern Bureau, I'll give you an honest answer. (Currently I'm three points back in the fantasy baseball standings...but sharing my knowledge of Delgado won't make any difference.)

You and I aren't the only people who have wondered about Delgado. Only about every other Mets fan is thinking about it.

Right now, he reminds me of Bobby Bonilla (ouch). It seems that whenever he comes up with a "big" hit, it's after the Mets are already down or ahead - nothing's very clutch. One of the things that you hear about Delgado is how proud he is. That he takes it hard when he is moved around in the batting order - he doesn't like to think of himself as an older ballplayer - he still thinks he's a cleanup-type hitter who can and will contribute.

Well, I don't think so. I feel the same way I felt about Delgado in the spring - I just don't know which version of him will show up from day to day. He'll get hot maybe for a month or two, but I think he'll fade by the post-season. The Mets will need better performances from everyone else to cover up that weakness....because Delgado is more liability than asset right now.

And now that I've said all that, expect him to turn it around and fast...because what do I know?

READY OR NOT, HERE IT COMES

I've never been so unprepared for baseball season. There have already been two games (internationally), and a third gets underway in a half-hour, but I don't think I'm ready.

I'm in my fantasy leagues, my rosters are set, my notebook is set up for the New Baseball Pool, I have selected a few players for "Beat the Streak"....but I'm not ready. Maybe because it's still March. I don't know.

All I know is that tomorrow the Mets play their first game of a season that will hopefully see them win the last game of the Major League Baseball season....but I couldn't tell you their starting lineup.

I know two things - the Mets waived Ruben Gotay Friday, and he was subsequently signed by the Atlanta Braves. And I know the Mets are going to put El Duque on the DL, and give Mike Pelfrey a shot at starting the season as their number five starter. But who starts in left, with Moises Alou on the DL? What's the pitching rotation? (I think Oliver Perez goes before John Maine...but I don't know for sure.) Who is in the bullpen? Who's on the bench?

I just don't know. And I apologize for that. I'll learn by watching - then I'll tell you what I see here. My dad says this is all because I'm growing up. I'm not sure I like it.

I do know one other thing - the Mets' opening game against the Marlins on Monday is at 4pm. So if I really jet home after school, I might make it back in time for the bottom of the first inning. And then Tuesday is April 1st....maybe baseball will seem more normal then.

IF IT WAS THE METS, I'D BE TICKED

Got out of the shower this morning, thought I'd have a chance to watch regular season baseball....turned on the TV - a Sony, looking much like the one at left - and the screen was black - looking exactly like the TV at the left. I went from NESN to ESPN2, both supposedly carrying the Red Sox-A's, and neither one had a picture.

I checked out another channel. Yup, a picture. Immediately I knew this was some sort of DirecTV problem, not a problem at only our house.

The report now is that there were technical difficulties at DirecTV. DirecTV claims NESN was back on by the seventh inning, and reports say that ESPN2 didn't come back until after the game. I wasn't around to find out - I was already at work.

This is a mess. I don't care very much...but you'd better believe when I complain to DirecTV I'm going to claim myself as the biggest Red Sox fan in the world, who took the day off to watch the game.

Thank goodness when the Mets played in Japan, that game was on ESPN, and I was able to watch it no problem. By the way - I can't believe it has been 8 years since I watched that game. Some parts of it seem like yesterday....some of it feels like a lifetime ago. A lot can happen in 8 years.

BACK TO THE STREAK: I'm back to playing 'Beat the Streak' - one of my favorite parts of the early baseball season, before I get bored with it (and realize I'm bad at it). They're offering $1,000,000 this year to someone who can get to 57 games. I'll let you know when I'm close. I forgot to start it with Game 1 - I'm picking it up in game 2 with Manny Ramirez.

TIME TO COME CLEAN

I feel I need to respond to the Southern Bureau's dig in the comments yesterday, where he seems to go overboard with the Chuck James references. For those of you who don't know, yes, that was a dig. Because I drafted Chuck James (high) in our fantasy baseball draft in January. And I think it's time to tell that story. But to save everyone embarrassment, I'll tell it in true story form, so that it comes across nearly fictional.

***

It was late January. It was cold in Boston...January cold. Four friends walked into the Boston University bookstore, looking for various knicknacks that they didn't need that they would buy just because it had their school logo on it.

John had a mission. He went straight to the magazine rack, knowing if he found the right magazine, he'd be able to spend the rest of the afternoon scouting for that night's fantasy baseball draft. John hadn't done much scouting, and he was a little embarrassed by that fact. What had been pages of research in year one of this league was down to an afternoon of scrambling to pick out the players he thought would perform best in an effort to defend his title. Well, half-title. He had to share the championship last year with Kevin.

Kevin. He'd probably been scouting since last October. Probably even September, before last year ended. That kid thinks about fantasy baseball all day, morning and night. John knew he had to work hard that afternoon to best Kevin.

He also knew Dave was one to worry about. Though he wouldn't pay much attention during the season, Dave was always well prepared for a draft. The draft played to his strengths. Stats. Spreadsheets. The rest of the season was just fluff. But John knew he had to get his players before they fell into Dave's lap. Justin, he wasn't too worried about, draft-wise. Justin knew his stuff, John knew, but he didn't prepare for a draft. He was like Allen Iverson - practice?! Justin just showed up and played.

One thing that did worry John about Justin was that he had a familiarity with the players. They all did, actually. More than he did, anyway. This was because they had spent the day before cutting out mini-pictures of all the players, putting together a tremendous draft board for the big night. So they knew the players...and not just their names, but what they looked like.

So this was the scenario facing John as he bought the magazine, and pored over it at the BU Hockey game that night. While Justin was obsessing over the Hot Dog and Jesus, and Kevin and Dave enjoyed the game, John had half an eye on hockey and the other half in his magazine.

He wasn't crazy about the magazine, to be honest. It was the "Fantasy Baseball 2008 Guide", and it gave projected stats for the players for the year ahead. The title sounded good, he thought, and you can't go wrong with projections, he thought.....if they're right. He looked at guys like David Wright, Carlos Beltran....they seemed reasonable. So he was sold.

John figured if he looked at the major players for each team, just to get an idea of their numbers, he would do OK. "Chipper Jones is made for our league," (where OBP is valued high) thought John. "I'll make him one of my top draft choices." And on and on he went. While still looking through the Braves, John came across Chuck James:

Projected 2008 stats: 15-9, 3.50 ERA, 191 IP, 61 walks, 173 strikeouts.

He did a double take.

Projected 2008 stats: 15-9, 3.50 ERA, 191 IP, 61 walks, 173 strikeouts.

He just found the steal of the draft. "I can't let anyone know about this," he thought. "If they find out about the year Chuck James is going to have, they'll take him before I can!" John became suspicious the rest of the night. He became very protective about his magazine. "I can't let them find out!"

The secret burned inside John. After the game, the four friends stopped for a bite to eat. John couldn't stop thinking about Chuck James. The draft finally came, and with the 36th overall pick, in the 9th round, John selected Chuck James.

The room fell silent.

"Not what I expected in that spot," said Kevin.

Justin laughed.

John got defensive. Now he felt stupid for believing a magazine prediction. He immediately realized he could have picked Chuck James up off the waiver wire.

In the grand scheme of things, not much was lost....except for John's pride. He would now join Dave in the annals of "Making Strange Picks Way Too High"...matching the Shea Hillenbrand pick Dave had made a couple of years earlier. And John still stood by the fact that James will have a good year - once he gets back from AAA Richmond, and fully recovers from the Tommy John surgery that wasn't mentioned in the magazine he hurriedly bought at Barnes & Noble at Boston University.

BEST WEEK OF THE YEAR

I've decided to postpone my baseball season picks until Sunday. It's not that I haven't finished them...they're done, just waiting to be put out there. It's just that there's something else that's occupying my mind this week.
As far as anticipation goes, nothing beats the first week of the NCAA Tournament. I love it. Tomorrow I'll get into just how much I love it. This week also comes with a warning/pleading: Please don't lose respect for me. You already know I'm a little bit crazy.

The first thing you need to understand is that I'm a creature of habit. And one of my habits is filling out the NCAA bracket in the New York Daily News. So every year at this time, the race is on to find a Daily News near here (in Framingham, Massachusetts) to fill out my bracket. Tonight, on my way home from work (en route to the best corned beef and cabbage in the world courtesy of The Wife - Happy St. Patrick's Day, incidentally), I stopped at a supermarket with lots of different newspapers (no dice), a CVS in Sudbury (no dice), and the CVS right here in Framingham. There, buried beneath about five New York Posts, was Monday's Daily News. Fantastic.

I have one more mission before Thursday (and in recent years this has carried over into Friday and sometimes Saturday) - I need to get my hands on a Sports Illustrated for this week. Ever since I cancelled my subscription, this has been a problem. Used to be I'd get this SI in the mail on Tuesday, well in advance of Thursday's noon tip-off. Now, I have to hunt down the tournament edition. Why, you ask? So I can keep track of the tournament winners and losers, and then I fold the SI pullout section around my picks. (In addition to the original bracket from the Daily News, I usually make myself a shrunken copy of my picks to carry around in my pocket.)

I will join a pool or two - but it's always the same bracket, just in case you were wondering. I'd drive myself nuts if I tried to keep track of more than one.

Now, believe it or not, I don't have a system for picking games. I just pick based on gut instinct. And as you'll see tomorrow, that hasn't brought me a lot of success in the past. So this year, I'm going to develop a system. As soon as I finish this, it's off to the papers to try to figure out a formula for success. And on Wednesday, I'll let you know what we're rooting for, and why.

Tomorrow, you'll lose any remaining respect you have for me.

WHY I PLAY FANTASY SPORTS: As you know, I play fantasy NASCAR (this is my 2nd year), and now fantasy golf (in my first year). I'm not doing very well in either right now, but the reason I'm playing has been accomplished. The NASCAR reason was twofold - to learn more about the sport, and to while away the Sundays between football and baseball. Both have been accomplished.

For golf, it was something I thought I'd be good at (not yet), but it has also allowed me to follow the sport closer than I ever have. And as a result, I witnessed one of the most outstanding sporting events I've ever seen on Sunday. Not unbelievable or the greatest ever, mind you, but just an outstanding performance.

I've been following tournaments closely through the weekend these days - from Thursday all the way through to Sunday. Usually I'm lucky enough to have a rooting interest. Well, this week my rooting interest was to root against Tiger Woods - it was a calculated gamble that I won't get into right now. (And obviously, it didn't pay off.) Woods trailed by nine shots after Thursday (I think), cut into that on Friday, and was a co-leader after Saturday. He took the lead, and was tied on the final hole on Sunday. A par would force a playoff, and a birdie would win the tournament - keeping him undefeated for the season. You just look at Tiger, on a course where people haven't hit their putts all weekend, and you knew he was going to sink it. And it was a tough putt. And sure enough, he sinks it. There is no other athlete in any other sport right now who is that clutch. No one. It was a signature moment. And last year I wouldn't even have noticed it.

IN PRAISE OF TERRY FRANCONA

If I could choose a team of only players I liked (and inspired by Dave in Brighton's fantasy baseball team, I'm working on one), the manager would be Terry Francona. In spite of myself, he has become my favorite manager in the game.

When it comes to managing Major League Baseball teams, one of the most difficult jobs is manager of the Boston Red Sox. All Francona has done in his 4 years with the team is win, and make the job look easy.

He started behind the eight ball in my eyes. I did not like the fact that Grady Little took the fall for the 2003 ALCS loss by the Red Sox. But then the Red Sox introduced Terry Francona, and he said all of the right things. He didn't let the Boston media run away with stories. When he'd lose his temper with the media he sounded like a dad who was disappointed in his kid.

Francona doesn't lose his temper much. You see it every so often - and that's how you know an umpire has made a bad call. That's when you see Francona come out to argue. He handles the players and their eccentricities (read: Manny Ramirez) in a classy way. It always plays out behind closed doors. He'll never air dirty laundry, and even when a player starts a potentially controversial situation (like Curt Schilling or CoCo Crisp this spring), you get the idea he took these guys aside and told them things will work out - but to keep everything in-house.

Francona is just flat-out likeable. You want him to kick the chewing tobacco habit (he lost a bet to one of the Red Sox owners last year because he couldn't quit during the season...not for lack of effort - but even finding out about that through the media was like pulling teeth - he doesn't talk about himself). You want him to quit so that it doesn't negatively impact his health.

He also said all the right things when it came time to extend his contract, which should have happened immediately after his second world championship in four years, upon the completion of his eighth straight World Series win (against 0 losses). He didn't want it to be a distraction as the Sox began spring training.

On Sunday, February 24th, the Red Sox gave Francona a three-year contract extension. If I were them, that would have happened a lot sooner, and for a lot longer than three years. But they made the right decision, and they'll be a team to worry about for as long as Francona is at the helm.

SPRING TRAINING ON SNY: I lucked out today and was able to catch most of the Mets-Braves spring training game on SNY. A few observations:

1) Mike Pelfrey has looked great this spring, and he looked great today. Part of me keeps reminding the other part of me that it's still spring training, and we're still at a point where the pitchers are ahead of the hitters. Also, I needed to remind myself that he did the same thing to these Braves last September, so maybe Pelfrey just has the Braves' number. But the other part of me was very excited - Pelfrey threw strikes, he got groundouts, and he broke a lot of bats during his three scoreless innings. It was very encouraging - and part of the talk was about how Orlando Hernandez's situation isn't improving (he has various ailments), so it could be realistic that Pelfrey breaks camp with the team. (One caveat - the Mets won't need a fifth starter until mid-to-late April, so maybe Hernandez isn't behind schedule...and he'll be ready when the Mets need him.) Nevertheless, I would be confident in Mike Pelfrey if he is the Mets' fifth starter this year. More than confident, based on what I saw today.

2) One area where I won't be confident is first base. Carlos Delgado has had a recurrence of the hip injury that kept him out most of last September. So he's not playing right now, but the Mets aren't making a big deal out of it. The problem is, they're thin at first base. And on Monday afternoon, Michel Abreu started at first. He's not good. Abreu has been in the Mets' system for a few years - I always saw his name and thought it was Michael. But it's Michel. Pronounced like "Michelle". But he dropped a pickoff throw from Pelfrey, and he looks like he's working too hard to catch throws from the infield on routine grounders. Not a good sign for a first baseman. Hopefully Delgado's not too hurt, but if he is, the Mets need first base help.

3) Spring training games must be frustrating for broadcasters. This game featured Kevin Burkhart and Keith Hernandez (no Gary Cohen, in other words), and it's spring training, so there's a lot of feature-y stuff to talk about. Not to mention Burkhart's primary role is the sideline reporter, so he's got plenty of stuff to talk about during a slow spring training game. But the players keep swinging at the first pitch. Almost to a tee. Maybe the game slows down when there's all bench players/youngsters trying to prove themselves in the game late, but I didn't stick around to find out. Anyway, Burkhart and Hernandez kept starting stories, and they kept having to go to commercial in the middle of them. Frustrating, I would imagine.

A BEGINNER'S GUIDE TO NASCAR

You may or may not remember, but 2007 was the year I became a fan of NASCAR. I never liked it - never understood the fascination with watching cars go around a track hundreds of times. I still don't, to be quite honest, see the fascination unless you have a fantasy team - but I do, and as a result, a way to pass the time between the Super Bowl and March Madness became a season-long obsession.

This year, with the Super Bowl now behind us, and baseball that counts a month and a half away, I offer you this quick overview of some of the big names in NASCAR - who they are similar to in other sports, and what teams you might compare them to. Please keep in mind - after one season, I am by no means an expert, and admittedly, some of these are a stretch (and some important names are missing - but I'm just one man, and can only do so much. Apologies to Kurt and Kyle Busch.). But I will offer my explanations. Enjoy. And, by the way, the NASCAR league has just started up again. Shoot me an e-mail if you want in, and I'll try to pull some strings. It's very exclusive. (Click the chart for larger images - I apologize the graphic didn't match up with what I wrote quite like I hoped.)

NASCAR begins and ends with Jeff Gordon. He is the face of the sport, and much like Derek Jeter, he started winning when he was young, and has won throughout his career in a professional manner. In that way, he is like the New York Yankees - when in doubt about picking a winner, Gordon is always a good choice.

Dale Earnhardt, Junior is also everywhere you look in the sport - flashy endorsements, big money - but he doesn't win. Just like Alex Rodriguez, or the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The stark opposite is Mark Martin. He's a part-owner, old guy, and like Brett Favre, considers retiring, but hangs on for 'one more year'. Unlike Favre, Martin only runs half the season, but he's still effective. Like the Green Bay Packers this year, making a run even though you might not expect them to.

Jimmie Johnson, like the Boston Red Sox, has that target on his back - he's the one you want to beat, because he's the defending champ. Like Josh Beckett, Johnson is young, brash, and clutch - also, they're both two-time champions.

Tony Stewart reminds me of Dan Marino - he's a hothead, and you either love him or you hate him. The only difference is that Stewart has won twice - Marino, none. There are a bunch of teams that are this divisive, but I'll go with the Dallas Cowboys.

Juan Pablo Montoya experienced a successful crossover season in 2007, coming over from IndyCar racing (I think I have that right), to do well on the NASCAR circuit. Kind of like Ichiro, not championship-level success, but still good in his own right. I'd also compare it to the Arizona Diamondbacks, experiencing success right off the bat.

These next few guys are comparable to the Diamondbacks, in that they are like small-market success stories:
Martin Truex, Jr. merits a comparison to Rich Harden, a guy who (besides the same intense look in their eyes in those pictures) hangs with the small-market type, just biding their time until a bigger deal comes along and they go big time. That came this year for Truex. I compare it to the Oakland A's, but it's more like the players that go through the system than the team itself.

Clint Bowyer is the same way, but sort of succeeds under the radar, like Brandon Webb. He just goes out and is solid, though Webb is probably the better pro. I'll compare Bowyer to the Minnesota Twins pre-2008, who succeeded despite their diminutive status.

And finally, I'll focus on J.J. Yeley. Yeley left the team he made a name for himself with last year (though, if I have this right, he was sort of forced out because Earnhardt was hired by Joe Gibbs racing), kind of like Barry Zito left Oakland to get rich with San Francisco. I'll throw in the Washington Redskins because both have recently parted ways with Joe Gibbs.

The Daytona 500 is February 17, which seems later to me than last year. But I can't wait - it's a long haul until March Madness.

SWEETEN THE POT, SI

I'm pretty sure I've written about this before, but it has fallen under different contexts. So now I'm devoting an entire entry to it.

I cancelled my subscription to Sports Illustrated about three years ago - maybe four. When I started teaching, I started reading so many children's books and educational publications that I just wasn't reading the magazine, so I viewed it as a waste and cancelled.

Now, I have since subscribed to two magazines - TIME and American History. I read both cover to cover, but American History is quarterly, so it's not a big time investment (but it was a great idea to subscribe to it - I highly recommend it). TIME, obviously, is weekly, but I make time for it. As I progress through my teaching career, I have less planning time, more time not devoted to school work, so I can read a magazine. Maybe two. But I don't know that I'm ready to go back to SI.

And they aren't making it easy for me to come back. Each time they send me an offer, the free gift with the subscription is the same - it's an NFL windbreaker. No one must be biting, because they seem to be having a hard time getting rid of these things:

I think I would go back to SI - but I'm waiting for them to offer something really good. There's a chance I'll go back in October, 2008, if the Mets win the World Series and there's some kind of related gift offer. Anything Mets or Jets-related would draw me...but they need to do better than a windbreaker.

I'm still a little leery about these free gifts. The whole reason I got TIME was because they were offering a free AM/FM radio. I am under the impression that someday I'll find a radio that will allow me to tune into New York's SportsRadio 66/WFAN (660 AM) from my home here in Framingham, Massachusetts. So I bit. Suffice it to say, this radio is not the one - I'm lucky to get an FM station in Massachusetts on this thing, let alone AM in New York City.

So, Sports Illustrated, I'll come back. But I need something good - and it needs to be of good quality. I'm waiting for your next offer.

GOLF: Because I am doing fantasy golf this year, I now have an excuse to watch all of the tournaments, which is why I spent part of this snowy Saturday watching the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. A couple of thoughts:

1) Last year, HBO aired a documentary about Kevin James and Ray Romano participating in the event. It was awesome...but it didn't get a lot of airtime. I saw about 50 minutes of what I think was an hour-long show, and I didn't see it on again. Anyway, it was pretty intriguing, especially when Romano almost made the cut. I wonder if they're doing a follow-up this year, because Romano is in good shape to make the cut this year.

2) The probable joy of James and Romano when they found out they would be golfing together (with their pros) after the pairings came out could only have been rivaled by the agony felt by Don Cheadle when he found out who his amateur partner would be.....Kenny G.

A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: This e-mail from Rob in Jersey serves the purpose of informing, after yesterday's post about the Jets' schedule in 2008:

"Hi John. Regarding the NFL schedules, I don't think many people have caught on to the general change in the weighting procedure since the last divisional realignment. Before Houston joined the league and they went to six four-team divisions, it was three five-team divisions in the NFC, two five-team divisions and one six-team division in the AFC.

Each team played four out of five teams from a given division in the opposite conference. The team that was skipped was based on the previous year's finish. (In other words, a last place team from the year before would get to miss the first place team on the crossover.) Then there were, of course, 8 intra-divisional games (for a total of 12). The final four games were intra-conference games based in part on the previous year's finish and not restricted to just one division.

Now, teams play an entire pre-determined four team NFC division, six intra-divisional games and an entire pre-determined intra-conference division (for a total of 14). There are only two games on the schedule that are based on previous year's finish. Next year, for instance, the Patriots play both of the other AFC first place teams, Indy and Pittsburgh, in addition to the entire AFC West. I'm sure you've known all that silly minutia for eons, but I thought it might be instructive to some of your legions of readers. Call it a pre-emptive strike against people wondering why the Patriots have such a joke of a schedule after going 16-0!"

Thanks for that, Rob.

A COMMENT ON THE COMMENTS: The Southern Bureau weighed in on the Erik Bedard trade, and just to respond/clarify: I did think about him leaving the AL East, and how that could be a benefit...but I just get a feeling. And perhaps it will be just a one-year adjustment, and then Bedard is back to his old self. I don't know....again, just a gut feeling. And I will be rooting for him to do well, though I fear he might not do well in 2008.

A WINTER BLAST

The draft is over, and the weekend visit/mini-BU Reunion is over. And I can't wait for baseball season.

That's always the result of this weekend and its activities - when Dave in Brighton, Justin From NYC, and the Southern Bureau are all up for the weekend, we catch a BU hockey game, and then have our baseball draft. I need to spend a minute updating you on our draft:

We do things a little differently - for about the fifth year now, we're doing this league using only teams from the NL and AL East divisions. And we don't use the traditional stats. This year it's:
OBP, R, RBI, SB, and K's on offense and W, SV, ERA, K, and BB for pitchers.

There are other minor rules, involving which players are eligible for the league based on trades and free agent signings and such. You may think we're crazy for holding our draft in January, before the dust settles for the season, but we think it's part of the deal. For example, the Southern Bureau drafted the rights to Johan Santana, so while I still hope the Mets land him, if my suspicion that he won't even be traded turns out to be true, I won't be too upset.

And Dave in Brighton is being punished by the baseball gods. In the one year he does a traditional draft, instead of employing some sort of blockbuster strategy in which he tries to game the system, it looks like the Orioles are on the verge of pulling off a blockbuster trade. Or two. (And I think Dave has Brian Roberts, but I know he has Erik Bedard.) Both Bedard and Roberts look like they are going to be shipped out of the division, punishment to Dave, in my eyes, for drafting Bedard before I could. So it looks like I'm already charmed this year, because I wasn't even considering the Bedard trade (to Seattle) as I prepared for the draft...and I would have been left in a lurch had I taken him in the draft. And Dave went from having an awesome team to now having a team with two very big holes.

Who did I end up with? Well, a few Mets, no one earth-shattering, position-player-wise - Brian Schneider and Moises Alou...but I also got Pedro Martinez*. I was able to get Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Chad Cordero and Ryan Zimmerman again, holdovers from last year's co-champions. Former Mets also dot my team - Scott Kazmir, Cliff Floyd, and Lastings Milledge. I'm also psyched to see what happens with Matt Garza for the Rays and Scott Rolen in Toronto. That trophy is here to stay.

I know it's boring to go over fantasy stuff...but I'll only do it occasionally. Expect another update mid-season. I'm very excited to get to baseball - but there's one more week where the focus will be on football. Being in the "stuck in the middle" position that I am, as a Jets fan watching the Giants and Patriots get ready to play in the Super Bowl, I have the advantage of knowing many Patriots fans and many Giants fans. Two of each will weigh in this week with special guest blogs this week. It'll start late Monday/early Tuesday with The Wife.

THE DRAFT WEEKEND

Due to the fact that 80% of my readership will be spending the weekend at my house, I'll be taking the weekend off. But it's not like I won't be doing anything sports-related.

This weekend is the big BU Reunion, where Dave in Brighton, Southern Bureau, and Justin in NYC all come up for a BU hockey game and we hold our East Coast Bias fantasy baseball draft.

You may remember the heartbreak of last year where I lost my season-long grip on first place in the final weeks of the season and then had to share first place because I came up one pitcher's strikeout shy of winning on the final day of the season. It's better than finishing second, but it's still just a tie...and especially painful because due to a school event, I missed starting Pedro Martinez* on the final Wednesday of the season, and, I think, Jon Lester - and there's your strikeout.

I have the trophy (seen at left), but I still feel like I'm sharing it. I want to win it all this season, by myself, and it starts with the draft on Saturday night.

Unfortunately, I don't even remember what the stats are going to be that we need to keep track of. All I have is a list of names - no stats. Darn schoolwork. I'll be busy in the next 24 hrs...

THE PLAYOFFS - WEEK 1

I have no clue. Let me warn you about this right off the bat. If you're coming here looking for expert advice on who to pick and what to bet this weekend, you're off base. I don't really know. Sometimes I like to pretend I know, and pass it off as expert knowledge, but my game-picking skills have gone downhill recently.

Nevertheless, I will make picks, and I will defend them, and I will keep track of how I do this post-season, and I encourage you to do the same. I will even keep track of your records for you, and perhaps I will put together a fancy-ish chart showing standings. I will be picking against the spreads and the over/unders for the playoff games. You can put your choices (in the form of game scores, please) in the comments section. (I am using the spreads/over/unders from the pool I participate in on officefootballpool.com. When I refer to 'betting money' on a game, that's what I'm referring to...not illegal gambling. Thank you.)

Without further ado:

WASHINGTON AT SEATTLE (SEA - 3.5, 40.5)
As it stands right now, this is the only game I feel comfortable putting money on, and it might be the only game that is adversely affected by weather. It should be rainy/snowy/mixy in Seattle at gametime Saturday, but that doesn't really bother me too much. It always rains in Seattle, and the Seahawks know how to play in the rain. Washington did pretty well against Dallas in the rain last week. So I think both teams will be able to score. I also feel that Seattle is pretty strong at home, and Washington has had a strong ending to its season, but I don't think it will be strong enough. I say:
JACKSONVILLE AT PITTSBURGH (JAX -1.5, 38.5)
These two teams met not too long ago, and it was the Jaguars, 29-22. I like this Jaguars team (much better than the last Jaguars playoff team), but the Steelers always surprise me. I know that they're playing without Willie Parker. but they have the type of system where they can plug in another back (I just don't know that they have 'another back'). In the end, I find the home underdog too tempting to pass up, and I also think the defenses will have a field day on another potentially sloppy field in Pittsburgh:
NEW YORK GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY (TB -2.5, 39.5)
One thing I've been watching closely this year is the idea that a home favorite by less than three points is the bookies begging you to take the home team. It seems to be the case - more often than not the 2-and-a-half-point home favorite doesn't only fail to cover, but the underdog wins outright. So I'm taking the Giants to win for no other reason than that. I don't have a good handle on either of these teams, but I think they're close. It could be either a boring 10-7 game or a very exciting game with some scoring. I'll say:
TENNESSEE AT SAN DIEGO (SD -9.5, 40.5)
I don't think Tennessee belongs in this post-season. This should be Clevelend...but they bombed against Cincinnati, so here we are. Could be some rain in this one, but I think the Chargers are on a mission to show that they can win a post-season game, at home, and the Titans are caught in the crossfire. And for this week, at least, the Chargers will look dominant:
Remember, put your picks in the comments section. I'll keep track. I have taken to liking this 'predicting the score when picking games' thing....do you remember a year ago when I picked the exact score of the Seahawks-Cowboys playoff game? That's the thrill of picking this way. (Of course, I didn't guess it would happen by Romo dropping a snap on a kick...but you can't win them all.)

FANTASY UPDATE: I feel a bit bamboozled. I thought I signed up for fantasy golf in time, but I missed the first round of the first tournament. Yahoo! was giving me the scores in the round as though I was participating, but I wasn't. Oh well. Looks like Justin from NYC and the Southern Bureau are in the same boat....but that one missed round is really going to bother me all season long.

MITCHELL REPORT REACTION III

THE METS - PART I

I've said all along I would comment on the Mets (or people connected to the Mets) involved in the Mitchell Report, and though we're long past the release of the document, I think it's still relevant (see: Roger Clemens on '60 Minutes' Sunday night). I think the fairest way to do this is in little chunks, so this might carry us through a bit more of the off-season, and I think I'll label each of these on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being 'most', and 1 being 'least', in terms of 'surprise', and 'disappointment'.

LENNY DYKSTRA
Surprise: 0 (8)
Disappointment: 5

There's not much surprise involved with Dykstra - if anyone saw him playing for the Phillies, he looked a lot different than the skinny kid who came up with the Mets. The real surprise is that he started taking steroids with the Mets - I don't remember him looking bigger in 1989, as the Report suggests. Perhaps that's why the Mets dealt him and Roger McDowell - because 18 years later, I'm still looking for the reason. The disappointment is at 5 because even though Dykstra admitted to Major League Baseball that he used steroids, he refused to aid the Mitchell investigation, helping to make it a mostly disappointing document.
JOSIAS MANZANILLO
Surprise: 9
Disappointment: 7
Part of me feels that anyone on the Mets during the Radomski employment (1987-1994) should be a 0 on the surprise scale. But the Mets were so bad during the Josias Manzanillo years (1993-1995) that it is surprising that anyone was taking performance enhancers. Manzanillo rates unusually high on the disappointment scale for a player of his caliber because I always really liked him, and looked forward to games in which he played (as a reliever). He was an animated type.
TODD HUNDLEY
Surprise: 7
Disappointment: 10
I think this was the biggest surprise on the list for me, but after thinking about it, it becomes more obvious, and goes down a few pegs on the surprise scale. The disappointment is partly in Hundley, partly in me for not seeing it sooner. This is a guy who went from never hitting more than 16 homers in a season (as it says in the report itself) to a team-record 41 the year he allegedly started juicing. As a former catcher, I always find myself partial to the Mets catchers in my rooting life...so Hundley was always one of my favorites, making this a bigger blow.
MATT FRANCO
Surprise: 10
Disappointment: 10
Matt Franco goes down as one of the bigger surprises/disappointments on the list. First of all, he was quoted in the report as denying knowing Radomski or taking anything. So there's that, for what it's worth. But if it's true, it stinks. Franco was an everyman, just an average-seeming guy, which made him easy to root for. When he did poorly, he got away with it, because he was never very good. But when he succeeded, it made it all the more exciting. To think that a player like this may have cheated - it's one of those instances where someone else may have been cheated out of a job. And throw this in there - Franco was always one of Bobby Valentine's favorites...even to the extent of playing for him in Japan (maybe even still). If Valentine even had a hint of this going on, it makes you wonder what else he knew about/who else he knew about. (Also, the timing of this is surprising - because this was alleged to have happened in 2000 - well after Radomski's employment with the Mets was up.)
TODD PRATT
Surprise: 9
Disappointment: 9
Pratt was always a hanger-on type. I saw him speak a couple of times, and he was working at baseball camps and such in between tryouts for major league teams. So, again, it's a shame if the report is correct, and maybe he had an edge. (He refused to speak to Mitchell.) It also makes you think - he won the 1999 Division Series for the Mets with a walk-off homer against Arizona....what happens if he was on steroids? That ball just barely cleared the center fielder's glove and the center field wall...maybe it would have been a routine out. Maybe the Mets don't get to the 1999 NLCS that year. Maybe I still like Kenny Rogers as a result, because he never walks in the winning run. All kidding aside, this is where steroids could be having an effect on the game of baseball, where you question everything.
PAUL LO DUCA
Surprise: 7-8
Disappointment: 5-6
The more you think about it, the less you're really surprised by this one. There's the explosive rage and his quotes from Sports Illustrated quoted in the report. But it still makes the Mets look bad. To make it worse, Hundley appears again as the person who allegedly hooked Lo Duca up with Radomski.

That's a wrap for Part I - I think I'll conclude my thoughts on the Mitchell Report with Part II sometime next week...then put this behind us. There's only about 7-8 other players with connections to the Mets that I want to mention.

FANTASY SPORTS: So last year, as a way to bridge the gap between the Super Bowl and March Madness, I got into Fantasy NASCAR, which I wrote about on the site. I'll be doing that again for sure in about a month, I think. But one thing I heard about which had always intrigued me was fantasy golf, which I was able to slide under the wire in creating a team when I realized Thursday morning that Thursday evening was the beginning of this year's PGA Tour season. So I'm excited about that. I'll keep you posted on how that goes.