SOMETHING'S GOTTA CHANGE

The New York Mets, as currently constituted, are going nowhere in 2009.

It's not just Oliver Perez, though his performance to this point hasn't helped.

It's not the fact that they walked in the winning run in the tenth inning against the Phillies on Saturday, though that makes my blood boil.

It's not that they seem to lack fire...though that's taking away from my enthusiasm.

It's a combination of all of those things, certainly, but mostly it's the fact that the Mets just aren't good enough right now to do anything this year.

I said it on Opening Night at Citi Field, when the Mets were cheered by the crowd that night...I said, "If it wasn't for the new ballpark, I bet this same group would be getting booed right now." Because while optimism usually reins during the home opener celebration, I think the fans are starting at the setting "fed up", instead of working their way in that direction. I'm as optimistic as they come, and I feel like there's a dark cloud (baseball-related, that is - which I'm starting to learn to ignore...more on that another day) following me around.

Maybe the Mets will turn out to be the best of what has so far been an unimpressive National League East...but that's not saying much. If the Mets are going to do anything in October, they need to make a change...and it has to come before the trade deadline in July.

I think Omar Minaya did a great job with the bullpen this offseason. But I don't know anyone who cares about the Mets who wasn't thinking that the rotation needed work. I never wanted Derek Lowe, but he was available, and so was a player like Brad Penny who was worth a flyer, among others. I wanted to believe that Oliver Perez would show up come the big games...but it doesn't get any bigger than a Saturday in early May when the manager says you have to prove yourself. And he flopped in that game. So Minaya failed the team there...and perhaps his hands were tied financially - but the money that went to Perez could have gone elsewhere.

And now the good work that went into building up the bullpen might have to be turned around to deal for the types of starting pitchers that could have been had in free agency. So a strength could be turned into a weakness in order to turn a weakness into a strength.

And it didn't have to be that way.

But if it doesn't happen....2009 is looking like a disappointment.

SAVE ME

I'm furious with the Mets right now. Furious.

There is no way they are going to win anything this year with the bullpen pitching the way it has been. And it's the most frustrating thing in the world to watch.

Aaron Heilman gets the bulk of the blame for Monday's loss to the Pirates, but the problem right now is that it's not just the 9th inning that Mets pitchers can't close out - it's any lead at any time. The Mets had a 5-1 lead going into the seventh inning, and right away gave back 3 runs, making it a one-run game. There is no way that game should have been a one-run game at any point after David Wright's 3-run homer in the first inning. (The offense can get some of that blame too - the Pirates tried to give the Mets a blowout win every which way on Monday.)

So after the game, Jerry Manuel talked about the fact that he had to make immediate changes to make things right. Here are my thoughts:

1) Eddie Kunz will be the closer. Manuel said he didn't want to have to put Kunz in that role so soon after coming up. You know what, the way the other dopes have been pitching, I don't care - Kunz should have been used in that role right away. It's what he did in the minors, he should have continued in New York. It's second-guessing at this point, but Manuel should have had Kunz in there from the beginning.

1a) I'm at the point where if Kunz can't do the job right away, and option 2 (below) doesn't work out, call up Brad Holt or some other minor league fireballer who can close the door. Just temporarily. The Mets are killing themselves here.

2) When John Maine comes back from his injury (possibly Wednesday), he will probably close until Billy Wagner gets healthy. I think this is an intriguing possibility, and if Maine is successful, I think it should be his permanent spot. He can be spotty as a starter, and ends up throwing too many pitches. I think he'd be ideal as a closer - and could solve the Mets' problems there for a while.

3) Johan Santana needs to go deep into tonight's game. It's the Washington Nationals, theoretically the Mets should win big (theoretically). Santana needs to step up and throw a complete game shutout.

4) I know there isn't a wealth of relievers available in the major leagues...but surely Omar Minaya could do better. The only person he seemed to be interested in at the trade deadline was the Nationals' Luis Ayala. 60 hits in 54 innings. And 21 walks. He's 1-8 (the losses are the only stat you can blame on the fact that he plays for the horrible Nats) with a 5.93 ERA. If Minaya makes that move through waivers (there are no indications he is still pursuing Ayala), it would be rubbing salt in this open wound.

Let's end on a positive note - David Wright is on another doubles tear - 3 in 2 games. I don't know that he'll break the team record, but he's creeping up there, and of course, continuing his assault on the all-time record:

WRIGHT (2008): 32 Doubles
TEAM RECORD: 44
WRIGHT (career): 173
ALL-TIME RECORD: 792

ANALYSIS THROUGH TWELVE WEEKS

I guess with the collision of the end of school and the tenth week of the season, I plum forgot about this bi-weekly entry. But it's back, probably through the end of the season. "Impressive" is a loose term these days with the Mets.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: How about the fact that the Mets were able to pick up Trot Nixon - a heretofore unmentioned fact on the blog, other than in the comments by the Southern Bureau when I was away last weekend. Nixon was tearing it up in Triple-A for the Diamondbacks, and although he's hitting just .190 so far with the Mets, it's a very good pickup - the Mets need more of his type of player on their team.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: The fact that the Mets are just 3 and a half games out, and at an even .500 right now is pretty surprising. It gives some hope for the rest of the season - almost like they have a chance to start fresh from this point on.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE/BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: The whole organization gets a demerit in this analysis - both as least impressive and biggest disappointment. The firing of Willie Randolph was a disaster, it turned the Mets into a laughing stock...they were already losing, they didn't need insult added to injury...but that's what happened. I've gone into plenty about how the firing was botched, so I'll leave it where it is.

*This didn't get much play over the weekend, but it might get mentioned more today (Monday) as the weekend recaps are done on the talk shows - the Mets hired Wayne Krivsky as assistant to the GM, or some title like that. That officially puts the heat on Omar Minaya. Krivsky was fired earlier this year by the Cincinnati Reds - but he didn't do a terrible job building up that team...so I think the Mets fully expect their next GM to be Wayne Krivsky...unless Minaya does something to save his job.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: Home dominance by the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs. The best teams in baseball win at home. The Cubs are 32-8, the Sox are 29-9.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Somewhat surprisingly, even though they are nowhere near as dominant at home (22-18 at home, 24-12 on the road), the Los Angeles Angels have the second-best winning percentage in baseball (barely better than Boston), and lead the American League West.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: The Arizona Diamondbacks specifically, but the National League West in general, have been pretty terrible. The Diamondbacks, after starting the season 20-8, are now just two games over .500, at 39-37. That means they're barely better than the Mets (although you've heard a lot less negativity surrounding the D-Backs), but the second-best team in their division is the Dodgers, at 35-40.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: I didn't pick them to win the division, as a lot of folks did, but I did expect better from the Seattle Mariners this year. They fired their manager last week after a season in which all they've done is be the worst team in baseball so far. The Mets host Seattle for three beginning Monday night. This would be a good time for a Mets sweep.

A FORK IN THE ROAD

I find myself thinking of two scenarios, as the Mets hit this point of transition. One has nothing to do with a manager change, though Jerry Manuel is marginally involved. The other is all about how things can turn around after a mid-season manager change.

2003 FLORIDA MARLINS
The Marlins in 2003 are that example - Jeff Torborg was the manager to begin the season, and after a 16-22 start, he was fired and replaced by Jack McKeon. Under McKeon, the Marlins were 75-49 the rest of the way, and the 'rest of the way' resulted in a Marlins world championship.

The big difference between the 2008 Mets and the 2003 Marlins, though, is age. The 2003 Marlins had some veteran leaders, but were mostly a young team. The 2008 Mets are mostly veterans, with a couple of young leaders. Another difference - the 2003 Marlins vanquished Moises Alou's team...the 2008 Mets can't get Moises Alou to stay healthy enough to play two games in a row.

So it's unlikely, but obviously, it's the best-case-scenario to compare the 2008 Mets' managerial change to the change the Marlins made in 2003 - that's what everyone hopes for when they make this type of change during the season.

Unfortunately, I get the feeling the Mets will end up more like the 1997 White Sox:

1997 WHITE SOX
I know this team didn't change managers, but after the season they did, and I'll get back to that.

This was the White Sox team that was 52-53 at the trade deadline, but more importantly, just three games back of division leader Cleveland, when they traded three of their best pitchers, and before that, one of their top hitters, for minor leaguers. (By the way - I can't believe that was 11 years ago - I fully expected that the "White Flag" trade took place while Manuel was managing the White Sox - in actuality, he took over in 1998 and was manager until Ozzie Guillen came aboard in 2004.)

One of those trades netted some decent players, but I'm not here to debate whether or not the White Sox did the right thing in 1997. I'm here to wonder if this is where the Mets are headed.

Right now, the Mets are 6.5 games behind Philadelphia in the division...and 7 behind St. Louis for the wild card. Unless they turn it around fast, they'd be better off as sellers than as buyers come the trading deadline. And as I wrote yesterday, it stinks that I'm already having to think about 2009, but 2008 is looking worse and worse, and if the Mets don't do something in 2008 to prepare for 2009, their first season at Citi Field will look a lot like their last at Shea Stadium.

In other words, the roster as it looks right now is old, and it might be time to blow it up. There are problems, I know - who wants some of these old guys? Well, there's a chance a team will take a chance on a guy like Moises Alou for a stretch run, if he's healthy for the month of July. And maybe Billy Wagner is expendable. Maybe the Mets can get some young replacements/replenishments for the farm system in return. It's unlikely that anyone would take Carlos Delgado, but he's not going to be back next year anyway.

The real shocker here is that I am once again going to advocate a trade of Jose Reyes. Tuesday night was a disgrace. Say what you want about him wanting to stay in the game, but his childish display, showing up his brand-new manager like that, sets the wrong tone. I don't care if he's not happy about coming out (not as a punishment, mind you, but in his best interests), he's got to have a sense of how it looks to an observer - it looks like he's being disrespectful and prima-donna-ish. It's only going to start rumors that the new manager has no control over one of his star players, much like the rumors that the old manager couldn't control him, or at least get through to him. I wouldn't mind seeing Reyes go to another team - provided the Mets get a ton for him in exchange. At the very least, last night's antics once again made me think that there's no way Reyes ends his career in a Mets uniform. (Incidentally, they were also another reason I was surprised the Mets didn't change the entire coaching staff.) I think Reyes will be with a few teams before his time is up, whether or not he gets traded.

The bottom line is that this year is looking like a failure, and the Mets have some options before the trade deadline - keep everything as is, and run the risk that next year turns out the same way, or shake things up in the hopes that some new faces in 2009 bring some better results. If it's the former rather than the latter, I suspect that one of the new faces in 2009 will end up being in the general manager's office.

RIDICULOUS, PART II

A big event like the Willie Randolph firing gets two postings in one day (make sure you scroll down if you didn't see the first yet).

I wanted to react to Omar Minaya's press conference.

And I want to start by saying I respect Minaya for his friendship with Randolph, and I respect how hard a decision it was for him. I'm sure he's genuine when he says that. I also respect the fact that it was 11:15pm local (Anaheim) time when he had his meeting with Randolph, which he stressed. And I respect that he wanted to be up front and honest with Randolph, and inform him right away, and not have word get out ahead of time, and that he wanted to sleep on the decision before making it and speaking to Randolph. I respect all that...I really do.

And I respect that it was HIS decision, something else he stressed. What I don't respect at all is the way he made the decision.

Omar, you wanted to sleep on this decision? The past month wasn't long enough for you? You could have hibernated on this decision.

Yes, Omar, you met with Randolph at a reasonable time in Anaheim. But please remember something - this Randolph firing affects a lot of people, not the least of which are the fans - 90% of which were sleeping, back on the east coast, when this decision was "announced" (if a press release and an e-mail is an announcement). I firmly believe you wanted to avoid the type of press conference you had to hold in Anaheim anyway on Tuesday afternoon. Did you know that some media types would be left back in New York, and you might not have to answer all of the tough questions? You really looked nervous addressing the folks you addressed on Tuesday - maybe you were nervous about doing it in New York.

You could have slept on the decision Saturday night, Friday night, last week, etc. There's no reason you had to fly all the way out to Anaheim to fire Randolph. You talked about not humiliating Randolph - I don't know that it would have been less humiliating for him to just have to clean out his office in between games of a doubleheader.

I feel like the decision that was made wasn't fair to Randolph - he has to be accosted by the media in a hotel lobby instead of at a presser in the old Jets locker room at Shea? It also wasn't fair to the fans - we deserve more than a note on the crawl on ESPNEWS.

(That said, I also decided, after listening to Jerry Manuel, I am not going to take all of this out on him. I hope the Mets do well the rest of this season, though I don't think some of the players deserve a successful season.)

Bottom line - I think it says a lot about the type of General Manager you are when it takes you this long to make a decision that everyone else knew was coming for a long time. What else might you be hesitant to pull the trigger on?

I am not in the business of calling for people to lose their jobs. It's different in professional sports, I feel (I'm not going to go to my boss and ask her to fire someone I work with, but I would voice that opinion about a pro sports figure), but I still don't like making a habit of it. And with that said, Omar Minaya needs to put the Mets in a position to improve, and fast. Or else I think the GM spot should have a vacancy as well.

MEET THE METS - JOHAN SANTANA

A preview of the 2008 Mets, presented in the expected batting order, followed by pitching rotation, followed by impact bullpen/bench players. Today we focus on starting pitcher Johan Santana.

2007: 15-13, 3.33 ERA, 235 K's, 52 walks, 219 IP

"I can breathe. It's like a big glass of cold water when you're thirsty. That's how bad we wanted Johan. I'm glad he's on our side. He's somebody who, now, everybody can rely on. Actually, he's somebody I'll love to be around. He's a great person. I'm really proud to have him here. I can't wait to give him a big hug and say, 'Hey, we're together now.' One from the left side, the other from the right side."

Pedro Martinez*, like many Mets fans, is very excited about the Mets' acquisition of Johan Santana, speaking the above words almost immediately upon his arrival in Port St. Lucie.

Johan Santana makes the Mets pitching staff deeper, allowing everyone else to move down a slot, and instead of pitching ahead of where they belong in the rotation, the Mets pitchers are now among the best in the league where they are slotted. (In other words, John Maine is not a number two starter...but he's better than most teams' number threes. Same with Pedro Martinez* at number two, and Oliver Perez at four. Even El Duque at five.)

Santana also gives the Mets a threat - someone who could very well go out and win every start he makes. He won't, though. As much as I love this acquisition, this is going to be a tough year for Santana. He'll pitch great...but he won't get the wins to show for it. He will leave a lot of games tied 0-0 or 1-1 in the sixth or seventh innings...and the Mets might win those games, but they'll have trouble getting on the board early against the Cole Hamels, John Smoltz, Roy Oswalt, etc. of the National League. That's my prediction for Santana - his strikeout numbers and ERA will be out of this world, but he'll suffer in the wins department.

I'm looking at Johan Santana's numbers, and I didn't realize that he was a reliever for the first three and a half years of his career. But that just helps prove my point further. The point I want to make is that the Mets could be getting quite possibly the best pitcher at age 29 in history. Here's why - the Twins take care of their pitchers. They probably eased Santana into his role as a starter - that's why he was a reliever so early on (speculation here - I really don't know this as a fact). His innings increased each year until they dipped last year (last year was a bad season, statistically and relatively speaking, for Santana). So his arm is probably in good shape entering this six-year deal.

And here's my big point - some people are pointing to a 17-strikeout performance by Santana last year as a negative, because he left the game after 8 innings and didn't try for 20 K's. I ask these people - how many times does someone go out there, looking for a personal record, and end up blowing a game for their team because they were looking for individual gain? And how many times do we rip that person? I think it's a great thing that Santana didn't go out there for the ninth, because he had already thrown 112 pitches. If he goes out there and hurts his arm in the ninth, or loses the game, he gets bashed. He knew he was handing the game over to his closer, and was willing to set personal glory aside in order for the team to pick up a 'W'.

Sounds to me like Johan Santana has sound judgment about his body, is a good teammate, and bottom line - he wants to win. Doesn't seem like there's anything wrong with that to me.

NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT: Johan Santana is on the cover of this week's Sports Illustrated (thanks to the Southern Bureau, a loyal SI subscriber, for the heads-up). Hopefully there will be no SI jinx. The article was decent - I read it online, though SI doesn't make it easy to find their magazine articles on their website. The article is about how Santana helped shift the mentality of everyone in the Mets organization. Nothing really new in there, except that along with landing the best pitcher in the game, the fact that he acquired Santana also landed Omar Minaya a new pair of expensive shoes in a bet he made with Mets owner Jeff Wilpon.

FROM THE FANS - DAVE IN BRIGHTON

Well, the Super Bowl is drawing ever nearer, and the weirdest Super Bowl bye week I've experienced is drawing to a close. I'm getting inundated nonstop in New England with Patriots coverage, my family is getting Super Bowl coverage in New York for the Giants, and I'm stuck here having to hear all about it while not really caring.

We'll do a last "From the Fans" segment, though, this time from Dave in Brighton. Dave has been in New England for the same length of time I have, and as he explains, he had no prior loyalties preventing him from blending right in to a winning football culture:

I didn't even watch football at all until fall of 2001. My roommate at the time in Brighton was dismayed by this, so he told me that '01 would be the season I would start being a fan. His first instruction: "Pick a team." I figured all the Pats games would be on TV, so I went with the Patriots.

I will point out that at the time I made the decision, the Patriots had been to two Super Bowls but won none, and the team was still in the post-Pete Carroll doldrums.

Seven years hence, there have been six post-season appearances, three Super Bowl wins, and one undefeated season. In short, the Pats have made it easy to be a fan.

So what's it like? I may have come late to the party, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to enjoy it.

I think sports fans find a shared identity in the bad times, mainly because only one team wins each season. But now I find myself in a place that plans victory parades before the game is even played. It's been nice to only identify with the good times. I'm sure that bothers some people, but what do you want me to do? Stop rooting for a team because it's good? Heck no. I'll stop rooting when they're bad. Duh.

Safe to say Sunday's game will come down to a field goal. I'll go Pats 31, Giants 28.

Dave in Brighton is also a talented blogger. He has filled in on the rare occasion that he watches a Mets game that I am unable to see.

AN UNRELATED BASEBALL NOTE TO OMAR MINAYA: Omar, give the man what he wants. If Johan Santana wants 7 years, you give him 7 years. If he will take 6, but only for an extra $10 million, you shell out the money. Don't even let it get close to the Friday, 5pm deadline. Please.

UPDATED SIGNINGS

Been a while since I updated the two headliners on this site, and both have made some recent moves:
The Mets avoided salary arbitration with Aaron Heilman by agreeing to a one-year contract on Friday. The contract gives Heilman a raise from $453,000 last year to $1.2 million in 2008.

It's a little less exciting to get Heilman back for next year than it would have been before last season, coming off a great 2006. Heilman was good last year, but nowhere near as reliable as he was the year before. He did appear in half the team's games....and it felt like it - you saw him almost all of the time. Heilman will be better if the Mets don't overwork him. I also haven't heard how happy Heilman is to be back - remember, he still wants to start, and the Mets don't really have designs on doing that with him.

Interesting note on the Mets - they haven't been to a salary arbitration hearing since 1992.

Also, earlier this month, the Mets traded two minor leaguers to the Cubs for Angel Pagan - he's 26, a switch-hitter, and will play a reserve role in the outfield.

Kept forgetting to mention this - but here's why the Southern Bureau is such a good friend. During baseball's winter meetings, he kept sending me e-mails with updated quotes from Omar Minaya, commenting on the moves the Mets were making, and that this year's Mets team was better than last year's. Southern Bureau wrote me saying:

"Huh?? Did I miss something?? They haven’t done anything, right??

And…more importantly…WHEN DID I START CARING SO MUCH ABOUT THE METS???"

Since you became the Southern Bureau, that's when.

Meanwhile, the Jets hired Bill Callahan as assistant head coach/offense. (I'm not sure what the /offense means...but I guess it stresses he'll be keeping a closer eye on Brian Schottenheimer's act than the defense.) Callahan was coaching at Nebraska most recently, and before that was with the Raiders, as an assistant for some years, and as coach for a couple, including a Super Bowl appearance.

Not sure what to think about the Callahan move - it comes from Mangini, allegedly, so I don't think it puts heat on him - but he could take over for Schottenheimer first, and then grease the skids for the head position down the road.

(I also read that Callahan's expertise is the running game, and the Jets are looking to him for a shot in the ground game.)

JUST THE FACTS....BUT ALSO SOME OPINIONS

I have no idea why the Mets traded Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. I'm hoping it's part of something bigger, where someone will be swapped due to that move being made, but I have no idea.

(A part of me thinks this deal is Omar Minaya's way of responding to the critics who accuse him of racism [or ethnicism, I guess] by acquiring only Hispanic players. I can imagine him saying, "You want some white players? Here are some white players. Guess what? They suck! Hispanic players are better. Do you see my point now?")

That said, there are some pieces to this off-season puzzle that I have firmly in my grasp, that I want to make sure I get out there, on what has turned out to be a quiet day baseball-wise.

First of all, and I haven't had a chance yet to mention this, Omar Minaya came out on Thursday to say that the Mets would not be trading Jose Reyes. Of course, the cynic in me wants to know when someone has ever told the truth in that situation, but I sort of believe it. So maybe Reyes is sticking around...or at least being held for a different blockbuster.

I don't think the Mets are getting Johan Santana. I'm not sure who is at this point, but it seems like the Twins want young pitchers that the Mets just don't have. I also wonder whether or not Santana is going to be traded this far before the trade deadline - by trading Matt Garza, the Twins left themselves a hole in their rotation - would they trade Santana too? Or if they did, they need a major-league ready pitcher, which the Mets can't offer....or the Twins don't want.

On that note, the Mets look to be kind of set for themselves in the young pitcher department, with Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey. I still think these guys will turn out to be solid, effective pitchers. Nothing spectacular, but they'll provide pitching depth. The problem with Pelfrey and Humber is that they are not going to land the Mets any big trading fish...because no one likes them as bait. They are the Mets' two best pitching prospects...but no one really thinks too highly of them.

Who do the Mets have that they could trade? The big name right now that would be part of a deal for a pitcher for the Mets is outfielder Carlos Gomez. He's speedy, and had a good start to his major league career with the Mets before breaking a bone in his hand. He is part of what the Mets imagine their outfield of the future to look like...but he might not be around for long. Also, it looks like the lefty-hitting Brian Schneider will stay a Met, to platoon with righty Ramon Castro...while Johnny Estrada will be shipped.

So if Santana is out of the question, who might the Mets land? This is where it gets good. How about Erik Bedard? If he's a Met come April, I'll be thrilled. I'd also be happy (but to a much lesser extent - you know how I feel about Erik Bedard) if the rumors about Dan Haren are true. He's a good pitcher. Joe Blanton is a big drop-off from those two names, and the Mets are also interested in him....but if you asked me which of the three would be most likely to be a Met in the spring, his name would come up.

One more thing - I'm not sure how I missed this, but I guess Rickey Henderson is no longer with the Mets. The Mets' record wasn't awful after he joined the team, but individuals, most notably Jose Reyes, saw their performances decrease after his arrival. The reason I noticed he's not coming back is that Tom Nieto, the Mets catching instructor, appears to be the front-runner for the job. Hmm...again, no Hall of Famer Gary Carter. Might he be in line for a catching instructor job?

That's where we're at right now. There's a lot going on on the hot stove - I'll do my best to keep updating through the winter...especially with the Winter Meetings just getting underway.

WHAT'S THE DEAL?

I can't believe the Mets just made this trade. I really don't have a lot of information to go on right now, but thanks to the Southern Bureau for some ESPN Insider information. Heres' what I know: the Mets traded Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.

Umm...what?

Players like Johan Santana are on the trade market, the Mets are dark horses in that chase because they have limited prospects as it is, and the Mets REALLY need a starting pitcher.....and they're trading one of their top trade-able players for RYAN CHURCH and BRIAN SCHNEIDER!?!?

I can't believe that the Mets would make this bad of a deal. It's a bad deal. Awful deal. And Lastings Milledge stays in the division so that he can haunt them 19 times a year. You better believe right now that Milledge will have a Chipper Jones-type career against the Mets for the rest of his career.

The only rationale I can make is that the Mets are working on something huge. Or the Nationals are working on something huge. Or the Mets and Nationals together are working on something huge, which required Milledge to be Nationals' property before he was dealt. I have to believe, following the Johnny Estrada deal, that the acquisition of another catcher is the set-up to a whole other deal. I have to believe that because if I don't, I'll cry.

The Mets could have gotten a number of different players for Lastings Milledge over the years. His value has dropped a little since he was a minor league prospect, but he still had a solid showing last year in the majors. There's no way his stock has dropped so far that he is only worth RYAN CHURCH and BRIAN SCHNEIDER.

One or both of these players better not be on the Mets' Opening Day roster.

I just had to give an immediate weigh-in on this potential disaster. (The only reason it's potential is that there's a chance the Mets can move some of these guys and get someone of value.) I heard it on the car radio on my way home from school and nearly drove off the road. I heard the guy say, "And the Mets trade Lastings Milledge...." in the last line of his update, and I thought, "This should be higher up in the update...this is a big deal." And then when I heard who he was traded for I felt sick. Seriously. I guess I do care quite a bit about the Mets.

I'll probably update more over the weekend...hopefully as future deals develop.

A JINX?

The Mets-Yankees are in progress as I write this, so I'm not going to address the Sunday Night Baseball game (it's 6-1 Yankees in the 7th, but I suspect the Mets have one big rally in them tonight. Not sure if it's enough to win the game, but they'll finish with more than just the one run, I'm sure of it). Instead of talking about the game, I'll spend this posting talking about something I forgot to mention on Saturday night.

This comes courtesy of the Southern Bureau, always with an ear to the ground for things that happen to catch his attention that has to do with the Mets, without him having to exert himself too, too much. Anyway, Southern Bureau brought to my attention the fact that this week's Sports Illustrated cover story is about Omar Minaya. So the Mets are on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and all of a sudden, the best team in baseball can't win a game.....?

Now, you might be wondering how it is that I needed to be informed that the Mets were the SI cover story, and I didn't already know this? I forget if I've said this, but about 6 months ago, I cancelled my subscription to Sports Illustrated. One reason was that I never have time to read the magazine during the school year (although I have two subscriptions that I make time for....more on that later). Another reason is that I found more and more stuff in there didn't interest me. The straw that broke the camel's back was the fact that as I was becoming more disgruntled with SI, I signed up for their fantasy football supplement, and they never sent it to me. So I cancelled the subscription. I have a thing about calling people/businesses, and I wasn't going to call them to tell them that they never sent me the fantasy football stuff. I probably could have finagled something free out of them, but I'm not that type of telephone caller. So I just called and cancelled. I think it was all automated.

Now, as for the 'having time to read the magazine' thing, (I'm realizing I have brought this up before, after I went through how I read a baseball preview, and Justin from NYC gave us his hilarious rendition of how he reads SI), I didn't make time for Sports Illustrated, but since cancelling my subscription I have subscribed to TIME and American History magazines. TIME got me with a free offer for a clock radio...which really bites. I have this dream that someday I'll find a radio that will allow me to listen to WFAN while in Framingham, during the daylight hours...and this dream allowed me to believe that radio was going to come to me free by subscribing to TIME. I can barely get the local FM stations, let alone AM from New York City. American History is one of the best decisions I've made...it's going to make me a better teacher, and I love the content.

But, once again, I digress. I was able to access the entire article on Omar (justifying my decision to cancel my subscription - I figured if there was anything I really wanted to read, I could get it online...which I did), and it was great. I recommend reading it. At first I was intimidated - it was 11 pages of text online. But when I saw the byline, I knew it was worth it. Gary Smith is a fantastic writer. I know nothing about the man, but I love everything he's ever written. I'm engrossed in stuff he writes about soccer, which I also know nothing about. His writing unfolds like a well-written song, starting slow, like a single drum beat...thump...thump...thump...building to a crescendo, with lots of action/information, and then coming full circle to the beginning. Just great stuff, and this article on Minaya was no different. (I questioned a little bit when he started off comparing Shea Stadium to a castle...but he even made that work!)

Finally, there's a part in the article where they talk about Minaya and his old Queens buddy Dave Valle, and their charity. Just to connect the story to me, Dave Valle and I went to the same high school. The baseball coach at said high school was very proud of the fact that he had Valle on his team (Valle was the starting catcher for the Seattle Mariners for a number of years). Alas, I was cut from the team roughly four times (let's see, four years in high school, so, yup, four times), so I was not destined to follow in Valle's footsteps as catcher. I had many issues with the coach who did said cutting...but that's a story for another time. Suffice it to say, Dave Valle, who I have never met, connects me to Omar Minaya.

Mets return to Shea on Monday night to begin a three-game set with the Twins. (A World Series preview, if my pre-season predictions come true.)

GOOD THING THE GAMES DON'T COUNT

The Mets were clobbered twice on Sunday, leaving me with plenty to write about. I'll start with the game I didn't see - the Mets lost to the Dodgers 16-2. Cuban defector Alay Soler was among the pitchers who were rocked.

In the game that was on ESPN, the Mets lost to the Puerto Rico World Baseball Classic team, 6-1. Not quite a clobbering, especially considering the fact that half the game was Mets minor leaguers, but the big hits for Puerto Rico came off Billy Wagner. (I'm chalking it up to the fact that he doesn't have his best stuff in early March - I'm not worried.)

I'll go in bullet format, with talking points from the game:

• Lastings Milledge led off and played center field for the Mets (since Carlos Beltran* was playing for Puerto Rico), and he played pretty well. It was good to get a look at him - he moved to left later in the game, and made a nice hustle catch on a sinking liner (he dived when he didn't have to, but it was still a very nice play)
• Carlos Delgado didn't play (for Puerto Rico) - he has a sore elbow. Jose Oquendo expects Delgado to be OK for Tuesday's WBC game, Delgado told ESPN's Duke Castiglione he might not be able to play in the WBC at all.
• I was going to save this for later, but I've already mentioned Castiglione, so here goes. I'm already biased against Castiglione because he's the son of a broadcaster. Since broadcasting was a tough profession for me to crack, I feel like 'sons of broadcasters' had better earn their spots. Joe Buck has earned my respect, few others have. Duke Castiglione is wearing real thin. He'd better just report, and report well - too many times he's trying to be buddy-buddy during interviews, or acting with a schtick - just do the reports, Duke. If I have to watch you because of some favor to the Castiglione with some (and I stress some, not a lot of) talent, you'd better just do the job the way it's supposed to be done. And why is Castiglione getting so many Mets assignments? I feel like I see him all the time on Mets ESPN games. Castiglione did the game with Brian Kenny on play-by-play and Steve Phillips doing color. Phillips is good - I like listening to him in radio guest spots, and he offers some good front office insight in the booth. Kenny needs to stick to the Hot List. I'm not a fan of his play-by-play. I don't know what the broadcasting sightlines are at Tradition Field - but Kenny missed a lot of stuff during the game - it was very distracting for me. I think this team is doing the WBC games from Puerto Rico the next week or so. I might not watch those...or I will to see if Brian Kenny can do better (Believe it or not, I do kind of like Brian Kenny....or at least, I prefer him over some other ESPN personalities.)
• Back to the game - Castiglione interviewed Pedro Martinez* during the game. Pedro* said his toe was sore, but that's "to be expected". Lately, the big deal in the New York papers has been whether Pedro* will be ready for Opening Day. They're playing this up way too early - I think he'll be OK. We'll leave it at that for now. Anyway, Pedro*'s take: "If nothing goes wrong, I expect to be ready for Opening Day." On the Mets chances in 2006: "If the team stays healthy, and it starts with me, we're gonna be a hard team to beat." On unseating the Braves atop the NL East: "Winning the division is not that important. Whoever is fresh in the finals - whoever's in good health and ready to play is who's gonna win it.....winning the division isn't important." I was surprised by that comment - I know the Mets can still make the playoffs as a wild card, but you can't go into the season with the mindset that second place is OK. Win it all, men. Pedro* is a good interview, though.
• Kenny and Phillips interviewed Willie Randolph, and Randolph addressed the 2B controversy: "It's an open competition - I really feel, though, that Kaz might step up and take the job."
• During that interview, Matsui made a nice backhand play up the middle, and the throw to first to make an out. In the bottom half of the inning, after a leadoff double by Milledge, Matsui grounded out to the right side to move Milledge to third, before David Wright squibbed a single between first and second to score the run. I thought it was a good day for Matsui.
• One more thing about ESPN - they had huge issues with their chyron operator (the person who controls the words that come on the screen), specifically in the age department. When showing Pedro*'s age during his interview, they listed him as age: 340. Also, Matsui was listed as age 20 (instead of 30. Pedro*, obviously, is 34.) I guess it's spring training for everyone.
• One more interview - this one was Omar Minaya in the booth. He was a little more aggressive than Pedro*, when it comes to the division: "The team is better - We expect to give the Braves a hell of a run." When asked about the starting pitching, he said the Mets have "good starting pitching", but he's "always thinking of things" when it comes to making a move.
• The Mets have a very young kid that played shortstop at the end of this game - Jose Coronado - I think he is 17. He showed he has a gun, making two good plays in the seventh inning. One he went into the hole at short, planted himself, and fired to first. The other play was a chopper over the head of the pitcher, and he charged it nice and made the play at first. He also singled later on.
• Finally, I mentioned last week that the Mets are one of about three teams wearing a new aerodynamic helmet with air holes, which offer more protection. They look sleek. I like them. I'm trying to place where I have seen helmets like this before - either in college baseball or women's softball. Nice looking though. I think the Angels are one of the other teams wearing them.

Monday the Mets are on ESPN again - this time at 1 against the Cleveland Indians. Tom Glavine and Jose Lima are among the scheduled pitchers.

Being a teacher in my non-blogging life, I am on vacation - February break. The beauty of February break is twofold. One, I don't have to go to work. Two, it coincides with the very beginning of spring training, so it is the perfect time for me to start up the ol' Mets site, and start talking baseball.

Clearly, Omar Minaya reads the blog (Hi Omar!), as he did not trade for Manny Ramirez, and had the good sense not to throw his hat into the Sammy Sosa ring (OK, maybe it didn't take that much sense, considering Sosa is a disaster waiting to happen on some unsuspecting team [read: Nationals], but if Minaya really did have a predisposition towards Latino ballplayers, at least he only picks the ones who don't stink, and who don't cheat, and who are actually pretty good.). I may not have addressed the Sammy Sosa thing, but I was pretty adamant that he not acquire Ramirez, so it is clear that not only Minaya reads the blog, but also that he can read my mind.

Where to start....where to start.....how about the mailbag?

"Dear JohnnyMets,

I think that this is the year for the Mets. I don't necessarily think they'll win it all this year, but I think this is their best chance. Young talent coming into its own, finally a stable bullpen, and a starting rotation that realizes it has just one more chance.

Thoughts?

Dave in Brighton"

Ah, good old Dave, e-mailing in the dead of winter. Yes, this appears to be the year for the Mets. Let's take a look at the position players, and the rotation, to consider my thoughts, and leave the middle relief for another day, because that's still sort of a mess.

C: Paul LoDuca
1B: Carlos Delgado
2B: Kaz Matsui for now, with Bret Boone invited to spring training, and watch out for Jeff Keppinger!
SS: THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED, Jose Reyes
3B: Future Hall of Famer David Wright
OF: Cliff Floyd, Carlos Beltran*, and Victor Diaz/Xavier Nady

P: Pedro Martinez*, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel, Victor Zambrano, Aaron Heilman
Closer: Billy Wagner

Second base is wide-open right now - and I think Keppinger stands a very good shot at making the major league roster, and even unseating Matsui. Here's why. At the end of the 2004 season, Keppinger played very well in the call-up playing time he got. He hit .284, even popped 3 HR's, in 116 at-bats. He was off to a very good start in Triple-A last year, but got taken out at second on what was called a "dirty slide" by either manager Ken Oberkfell or hitting coach Howard Johnson while trying to turn a double play. It messed up his knee, and he missed the rest of the year. Well, I think we will be keeping a close eye on Keppinger this spring, here on johnnymets.blogspot.com, because I think he could be the Mets' second baseman.

Other than second base, the only unsettled position is right field. Victor Diaz played well last year, getting his first extended Major League action, but the Mets traded Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady, and you better believe it's Nady's position to lose. Diaz's defense is questionable, and he has options left, so he faces an uphill battle to win the spot - where Willie Randolph says he'd rather not use a platoon.

The pitching rotation is solid.....but not deep. I've said it before, I really wish Aaron Heilman could keep coming out of the bullpen, because he was so reliable in that role last year. But the trade of Jae Seo (see posting below) means Heilman is all but assured of the number five spot in the rotation, and the trade of Kris Benson means there isn't much depth. This is something I will talk about more as the season goes on, but the last thing I want to say is I do NOT think Pedro Martinez*'s toe is something to get upset about. He's been drumming it up for a while, and while he says he wants to play in the World Baseball Classic, I don't think he really does, and I don't think the Mets want him to. So there is a legit problem with the toe, but I think it will be OK for him to pitch, and pitch effectively, come April.

As spring training progresses, I'll talk more about the Mets' roster and the players fighting for roster spots. For now, I'll give spring training updates:

--The Mets have their first full-squad workout on Thursday.
--David Wright has lightened his workload this year, so hopefully he won't go stumbling into the All-Star break like he did last year - fatigue was blamed for his slump in early July. He's taking less grounders after team workouts, and not as much batting practice. This should pay off, especially when you consider Wright should be making the All-Star team this year, instead of getting that time off (the secret's out - Wright's a star).
--By the way, Chipper Jones' son, Shea, is sick, and in the hospital, so there's a chance he might not play in the World Baseball Classic. If it turns out he does not play, Wright will be taking over Jones' spot, and that means he could be facing an even longer season of competitive ball.

The final note for today is that 2006 is the 20th anniversary of the 1986 World Champion Mets. The Mets have a nice patch that I think they'll be wearing on their sleeves commemorating the anniversary, and they also have different events throughout the year celebrating the '86 team. The celebrations culminate with an August 19th matchup with the Colorado Rockies where the entire team (hopefully, for my sake) will reunite. Some players will be easy to find - especially Hall of Famer Gary Carter, who was promoted from his successful Gulf Coast Mets stint (37-16 in his first year) to the Florida State League, still in the Mets' organization. He replaces fellow '86 Met Tim Teufel, who says he's taking a year off from baseball.

Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez will be in the Mets' broadcast booth - both will divide time as color analysts on the Mets' new network, SNY (which better be picked up by DirecTV). Also, Roger McDowell replaces Leo Mazzone as the Atlanta Braves' pitching coach this year - he will probably be unavailable for the reunion.

Needless to say, along with this year's Wright Watch and Kid's Kids features, there will be an '86 Mets Roundup on johnnymets.blogspot.com, and I'll try to keep you posted on as many of the '86 Mets as I can keep track of.

A lot has happened since my last posting, so I will see if I can offer a full recap and some opinion. I will start with an opinion, on the off chance Omar Minaya sees this and takes it under consideration.

DO NOT ACQUIRE MANNY RAMIREZ!!!!! PLEASE!!

I can't believe pro athletes and what they say anymore (see johnnyjets.blogspot.com) but Ramirez tells ESPNdeportes that he no longer wants to be traded, and wants to stay in Boston where he has many friends, especially David Ortiz. (Ortiz has to feel very special to be singled out like that, by the way.) This guy is clearly a head case, who swings a very good bat, but can't be a good influence on the fine core the Mets have built themselves. Do not get Manny. Stop your obsession with him. Let the Sox keep him...or trade him to Baltimore. But don't get involved. Please.

Now, on to what the Mets have done. Miguel Cairo has signed with the Yankees (again), so the Mets have lost another valuable utility man (Marlon Anderson went to the Nationals earlier this offseason). In an attempt to make up for these losses, the Mets signed Bret Boone to a minor league contract. I say this move is worth the risk. Boone, a few years back, was a power-hitting second baseman the likes of which has never before been seen in baseball. Then the steroid scandal hit, and Boone's power numbers dropped like a stone. I'm not implying anything here, I'm just giving you a frame of reference, as far as timing. When the Mariners released him last year (come to think of it, the entire Mariners offense stopped producing when the steroids scandal began - no one notices what goes on in the Pacific Northwest, I guess), I thought it would be a good idea for the Mets to try to pick up Boone. The Twins did, and Boone was brutal with them. So I guess in retrospect it's good the Mets didn't get him then. Now, Boone has another chance to prove he's valuable to a Major League team, and I would love for him to be serviceable at second base.

The Mets made another deal, trading Jae Seo and Tim Hamulack to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll. I like that Steve Schmoll's last name is Schmoll, but it's too bad the Mets had to get rid of Seo. He is a very good pitcher, but the Mets never really seemed to want him in their plans. I think it's because of his admitted stubbornness a couple of years ago, which the Mets (and in particular, I think, Rick Peterson) could never get over. In Sanchez, though, the Mets are getting a guy who, along with Aaron Heilman, could be a bridge to Billy Wagner. So that move goes a long way to shoring up the Mets bullpen. Schmoll and Hamulack are a wash, basically. Schmoll's numbers weren't too impressive last year, but I do remember him picking up a couple of saves back when Eric Gagne got hurt, in a couple of good outings, then seeing things turn sour. He may have appeared on my fantasy league roster after those saves (the good outings), just in time for all the succeeding miserable outings.

The Mets' rotation will not suffer from the loss of Seo - and it looks like Kris Benson will be sticking around (much to the relief of our good friends at naturalbl0g.blogspot.com). The rotation will be made up of:
Pedro Martinez*
Tom Glavine
Kris Benson
Steve Trachsel
Victor Zambrano

The plans for Heilman are to keep him in the bullpen, which I am happy with. I would not be happy if he is traded to Tampa Bay for either Danys Baez or Julio Lugo. I like Lugo's numbers, and he could be a long-term solution at second base, but I'm not crazy about the Mets giving up Heilman. If the Mets traded Heilman for Baez, it wouldn't be much of an upgrade. I'll leave it at that. I have my doubts about Baez's ability to pitch for a winning team in pressure spots (he would be setting up Wagner, which by the way, he doesn't want to do). We know what we have in Heilman.

One thing about Pedro Martinez*. He's been complaining about his toe, which acted up on him late last year. My thoughts are that Pedro* will be fine for the regular season. If his past with the Red Sox is any indication, I think Pedro* is talking up the toe problem as a reason he will not have to pitch in the World Baseball Classic, and then he'll come back for spring training, and be ready to pitch for the Mets. Pedro* doesn't like to do the extra-curricular stuff.

5 weeks until spring training!