FINALLY COMING TO BLOWS?

I’m not trying to stir up trouble. And all things considered, I’d rather the Mets fought with members of another team than among themselves.

But I have a bad feeling that this is the year Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado finally come to blows in the dugout or in the clubhouse.

I’ve written about this before, and I’ve never been fond of it...and I can’t imagine it’s not getting old for Reyes.

Any time Reyes makes a bad throw, or even a throw that makes Delgado move the slightest bit off the bag, Delgado stares down Reyes. It happened again on Wednesday night, when Reyes threw a ball to Delgado’s right that Delgado didn’t even make a good effort to get in front of. It could have easily been an error on Delgado, but it was scored a throwing error on Reyes. Delgado gave Reyes a look as if to say, “Enough with the bad throws.” The camera I saw (I was watching Fox Sports Ohio, the Reds’ channel) showed a reaction shot of Reyes where he gave a look back to Delgado.

Now, I don’t know anything about their relationship. Maybe they have worked this out in the past that Reyes says he needs the reminders from Delgado to get pumped up and make good throws. It certainly seems that the next time after these situations Reyes throws a strike to Delgado.

But if I were Reyes, I wouldn’t like it. It might have flown when he was younger, but he’s a veteran now, and probably doesn’t want to be treated like a rookie. And Reyes has shown a resistance to authority - remember Jerry Manuel’s debut in Anaheim, when he tried to lift Reyes from the game and Reyes publicly pouted? He wouldn’t fight a manager, but he’d fight a teammate.

One other thing that bothers me about this situation is that it’s one thing for Delgado to shoot a look when someone else isn’t perfect, but he’s not perfect himself. He is notorious for coming off the bag too quickly on forceouts - too close for comfort in some instances. Wednesday night (I fell asleep, but read about this afterwards...I’ll try to watch the video) he got called on it, in the 9th inning, when he came off the bag to throw home after a throw to first.

I bet no one shot him a look....but I hope someone did.

OTHER THINGS: I love that the Southern Bureau is fully on board writing this season...David Wright had a double Wednesday night - too early to count those game-by-game, but the first one's worth mentioning (Ryan Church already has 3)...Just an absolute tragedy for the Angels. I wouldn't be surprised if this derails their season.

I KNEW I LOVED SPORTS ILLUSTRATED

Over the years, Sports Illustrated and I have had our ups and downs. We went through a stretch where I just wasn't reading it, so I cancelled the subscription. When I had time again and renewed the magazine, my free gift was stolen in the mail and they never made up for it.

But all is forgiven.

Sports Illustrated is picking the Mets to win the World Series.

I actually can't disagree with much that Sports Illustrated has picked in terms of this year's standings. If I were to have gone through the standings, I would have had the Mets over the Angels in the World Series, like they do (and like I've had every year since 1999, probably).

They also have the tight race in the AL Central that I'm predicting, though the records of the teams there were significantly lower in their opinion than in mine.

So I'm thrilled...at least someone is on board with the Mets, besides me.

But, technically, I haven't picked the Mets to win the World Series. Just in case that matters when it comes to karma.


THE YANKEES OPENED THEIR STADIUM, TOO: Justin in NYC was there for the Yankees' exhibition game at their new stadium last night. He wrote about it here. Part of me wants to ignore the fact that I wasn't at the 'first-ever' game at Citi Field (or the second-ever, or the third-ever, if you count the St. John's game)...but I'll be at the first game that counts, which is good enough for me.

MY PLAYOFF PICKS

Since I'm so good at making baseball predictions, I figure I have to pick these series. Here's what I think:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston Red Sox versus Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

It's very hard to pick against the Red Sox. They continue to win, year after year, and when they get into the playoffs, they go deep into the playoffs. But I feel like this year is going to catch up to them.

The Sox have had all kinds of injuries this year, which they've survived, but things keep cropping up - like this Josh Beckett injury. And I also feel like Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to run out of luck. He's been the worst "good" pitcher this year that I've ever seen. He pitches incredibly with runners on base - but he's allowed way too many baserunners this season. I think that'll catch up with him in the post-season - you just don't get away with that at this point in the year. This isn't here nor there, but I also worry about Jonathan Papelbon. He's had a history of breaking down at the end of seasons - and he didn't really have an extended time off this year, as he's had the past couple of years. He didn't look as effective late in September, and I wonder if he'll be hittable in the post-season.

The Angels have had a very good season, and although I can see them folding, especially against the Red Sox in round one, I'm picking them to advance. Angels in five

Chicago White Sox versus Tampa Bay Rays

The White Sox are going to enter this series tired. They've had a crazy week - losing their lead in the Central by getting swept by the Twins, then rebounding, winning their must-win makeup game Monday, then the one-game playoff Tuesday. But I would have picked the Rays even without all of that going on.

The Rays have something special going on - I wouldn't be surprised if they make it to the World Series. But we'll start small - their starting pitching is better than the White Sox'. That's about all they're going to need to get through this series.

I'm going Rays in four.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles Dodgers versus Chicago Cubs

I'm starting to believe the Cubs hype - at least for them to win the National League. They have a good team, they were able to clinch early enough that they could be all lined up and rested for the playoffs, and they drew the Dodgers in round one.

With the Mets not standing in their way, I might as well root for the Cubs to break their 100-year drought. I'm not committed yet - I'll have to see how I feel watching the games - but they're certainly going to start out on the right track.

Manny Ramirez won't be able to do all of this by himself. Cubs in three.

Milwaukee Brewers versus Philadelphia Phillies

CC Sabathia can't pitch every game of this series, and that will cook the Brewers. The Phillies should have been better than they were this season - they were very inconsistent.

I think they're better than the Brewers, but now that the Brewers are in, I wonder if there's some pressure off of them. They might push the Phillies farther than the Phillies would like to be pushed in this round.

I think the Phillies survive, but it's going to be a lot rougher against Milwaukee than they expect. Phillies in a very tough four games, avoiding Sabathia in Game 5

ANALYSIS THROUGH TWENTY-FOUR WEEKS

I hate to look like I'm copping out of something here, but I kind of am. There's nothing left to analyze. There are 14 games left in the season, and the Mets have a magic number of 13.

The bullpen is a disaster, the Mets as a whole are starting to look eerily like last season...but it doesn't matter.

If the Mets make the playoffs, with a good final two weeks, it doesn't matter. I know it won't look good with the way the bullpen has pitched, but if they just make it in, anything can happen.

So there's your bi-weekly Mets analysis. By the next time I do one of these, the Mets had better be a playoff team.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: The Angels have no such worries. Anytime a team clinches this early in the season (I always use the 1986 Mets clinching on September 17 as a benchmark - in recent memory, I can only remember the 1995 Indians, the 1998 Yankees, and the 2001? Seattle Mariners as besting that), you have to give them major props. So major props to the Angels, who just dominated that American League West this year.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Staying out in LA, the fact that the Dodgers didn't just fold up the tents and collapse is a bit of a suprise. And now they're really starting to pull away in the West. They're still just five games over .500, but they're starting to look like a major league baseball team.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: On the flip side, there's the Milwaukee Brewers, who have just faded fast these past few weeks (since playing the Mets, really). I know from big collapses, and this is a big collapse. They were sitting pretty, having made all of the right moves. Now they're tied for the wild card with the Phillies (and if the Mets fall out of first, they'll be in the wild card chase, at least), and they've fired their manager. What a mess.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: The Diamondbacks, I've always thought, were the best of the worst in the West. The fact that they have just fallen apart while the Dodgers have gotten hot is a bit of a disappointment. It doesn't look like the West will even be a race anymore.

One note about the Mets' magic number. I started calculating it on Saturday, right about the time the Mets started to have a bad weekend. I won't mention it again until it's about 1, with more than 1 game to play. And then it's only maybe.

HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED

We're heading into August, and I'm thinking about October.

It occurred to me today, as I was thinking about the trading deadline, that this is one of those trade deadlines where it feels like it will have a serious impact in a couple of months. So I'd be disappointed if the Mets didn't make a move.

Jason Bay would be ideal at this point, but I'm not getting my hopes up for him or Matt Holliday. If it happens, great, because that's the piece the Mets need. If not, I just hope they make a move that reflects what fans want - don't give up the farm, but show us that you can make the right move.

I'm thrilled that the Mets don't seem to be interested in Manny Ramirez. It's a double-edged sword with him - whoever gets him, if he's traded by tomorrow, will get the "I'll play for you" Manny. But then there's the Manny who doesn't run out ground balls and complains about a balky knee lurking in the shadows, waiting to bust out when things turn sour. And that's a distraction the Mets don't need.

What I'm hoping is that the Mets don't overreact to prevent him from going to Florida. I say let him go there. He will drag Hanley Ramirez way down - that kid is impressionable, and you put the wrong guy there, he'll go right down the tubes with him. That's why getting rid of Miguel Cabrera was such a good move for them. And if the Marlins do deal Jeremy Hermida (and Josh Willingham, I think I heard), it's a better long-term move for Boston.

And I still suspect that after tomorrow, within a week or two, someone might go ahead and add Barry Bonds. He'll help someone down the stretch, and I think one team will become desperate enough to make the move. I hope it's not the Mets.

PRETTY GOOD TIME TO BE AN ANGELS FAN: Gotta love what the Angels have been doing if you're a fan...They're playing the best baseball in the league, and then they add to it by acquiring Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman. A great trade for them - they didn't give up much in a definite upgrade. They were already going to cruise through the rest of the season...this only makes them more of a threat in the post-season. (I heard today that they've gone 170 post-season innings without a homer...is that true? Possible? That streak will end this year.)

ANALYSIS THROUGH TWELVE WEEKS

I guess with the collision of the end of school and the tenth week of the season, I plum forgot about this bi-weekly entry. But it's back, probably through the end of the season. "Impressive" is a loose term these days with the Mets.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: How about the fact that the Mets were able to pick up Trot Nixon - a heretofore unmentioned fact on the blog, other than in the comments by the Southern Bureau when I was away last weekend. Nixon was tearing it up in Triple-A for the Diamondbacks, and although he's hitting just .190 so far with the Mets, it's a very good pickup - the Mets need more of his type of player on their team.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: The fact that the Mets are just 3 and a half games out, and at an even .500 right now is pretty surprising. It gives some hope for the rest of the season - almost like they have a chance to start fresh from this point on.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE/BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: The whole organization gets a demerit in this analysis - both as least impressive and biggest disappointment. The firing of Willie Randolph was a disaster, it turned the Mets into a laughing stock...they were already losing, they didn't need insult added to injury...but that's what happened. I've gone into plenty about how the firing was botched, so I'll leave it where it is.

*This didn't get much play over the weekend, but it might get mentioned more today (Monday) as the weekend recaps are done on the talk shows - the Mets hired Wayne Krivsky as assistant to the GM, or some title like that. That officially puts the heat on Omar Minaya. Krivsky was fired earlier this year by the Cincinnati Reds - but he didn't do a terrible job building up that team...so I think the Mets fully expect their next GM to be Wayne Krivsky...unless Minaya does something to save his job.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: Home dominance by the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs. The best teams in baseball win at home. The Cubs are 32-8, the Sox are 29-9.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Somewhat surprisingly, even though they are nowhere near as dominant at home (22-18 at home, 24-12 on the road), the Los Angeles Angels have the second-best winning percentage in baseball (barely better than Boston), and lead the American League West.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: The Arizona Diamondbacks specifically, but the National League West in general, have been pretty terrible. The Diamondbacks, after starting the season 20-8, are now just two games over .500, at 39-37. That means they're barely better than the Mets (although you've heard a lot less negativity surrounding the D-Backs), but the second-best team in their division is the Dodgers, at 35-40.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: I didn't pick them to win the division, as a lot of folks did, but I did expect better from the Seattle Mariners this year. They fired their manager last week after a season in which all they've done is be the worst team in baseball so far. The Mets host Seattle for three beginning Monday night. This would be a good time for a Mets sweep.

PREVIEW: AL WEST

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the American League West.

The Seattle Mariners got better. The Oakland A's got worse. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim stayed at about the same level they've been at recently. And the Texas Rangers may have done just enough to scoot past Oakland and out of last place.

The A's are in rough shape. They're like the Twins will be this year - they've gotten rid of anyone capable of making an impact this year, and whereas in past years they've been able to survive it, this year, they're going to suffer because of it. They're destined for last place. Want proof - look at their outfield and tell me who you've heard of.

Not far behind (or not far ahead in the standings, I guess), though, are the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are kind of talented. On paper, they look like a good team. But they don't win games against teams in their division, and they haven't done much to get better than last year. And last year they were in last place. Milton Bradley should do wonders for that clubhouse, incidentally. That might be fun to keep an eye on.

The race will be between Seattle and Los Angeles.

Seattle will be very good. Unfortunately for them, there will be four or five teams in the American League that will end up being slightly better, so they will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. I like the Erik Bedard deal for Seattle - but I think it will pay off next year. I think Bedard has a year of adjusting, and the Mariners are 2009 West division champs.

The reason it's not this year is because the Angels stayed good, and might even be better this year than their division-winning performance last year. They're like the opposite of the Rangers - they win the games they're supposed to...and, well, they're good. The West will be a two-horse race for much of the season, but I expect Los Angeles to pull away about mid-September: