Southern Bureau's 2009 Mets Preview

The Southern Bureau's 2009 Mets season preview is brought to you by the official house band of 200 Miles From the Citi - Matt Sucich with the Vanderettes.

HARMONIUM - The new Citi Field is probably going with pre recorded rock music and not the traditional ballpark organ music, but that's not what really matters. How will the new Citi Field play? Will it favor hitters or pitchers? Having seen some of it on tv yesterday - the large wall in left field made it feel like a pitchers park - but with Oliver Perez pitching, it was still 6-0 Red Sox in the first inning. So who knows? But I'm wondering how quickly it will take the Mets and Jerry Manual to adjust to the new digs. Could possibly set the Mets back a few games.

...AND LOVE - ....and hate. Didn't take long for Mets fans to turn on this team. In that same article in the previous paragraph it reports that the Citi Field faithful are already in September boo'ing mood. Perez was boo'd off the mound (as well he should have been). But I think that could be a big factor with this year's team - how long will the fans believe? They're obviously gun shy - and rightfully so. The last two seasons have been pretty heartbreaking - you only need to read Johnnymets to know that (see 2007 and 2008). While every Met fan does love their team, a slow start could ruin the confidence of the fans and lead to a summer full of empty seats at Citi Field.

STUPID OUTFITS - We've been over the sleeve patch, but I'm happy to see the Mets have gotten rid of their black alternate uniforms. The Southern Bureau hates alternate uniforms - always feels like a slow pitch softball uniform to me.

ALL TIME GREATEST - Yeah...we're all looking at you, David Wright (maybe not in that picture). Its your year to step up and win something. Individually - you're great. I've been in two fantasy baseball drafts this year, and you went first in one, second in the other. I'm sure there are dad's in Queens right now trying to convince their wife to let them name their newborn "David" or "Wright". But at some point, you've gotta win a big game. You're probably already one of the Top 20 players in Mets history (maybe not - Johnnymets or Daddymets could probably correct me), so its time to make that next step.

SETTLE DOWN - As Johnnymets pointed out in a recent post, Sports Illustrated believes the Mets are winning the World Series. Not good. Sports Illustrated has a habit of doing this - and its never works out well for anyone - especially the team they pick.

As a Red Sox fan who sat through several years of "The Red Sox will win it all" issues from Sports Illustrated, its not fun. On the left - that's the 2000 Preview. The title: Why the Red Sox Will Win the World Series (Really!)

Turns out: not really. They finished 85-77 and didn't make the playoffs.

To be fair to the cover boy, it wasn't Pedro's* fault. He won the Cy Young and finished 5th in MVP voting.

Anyways - before we all get too excited about Sports Illustrated, lets all settle down and realize they really don't know much more than anyone else.

NEW YORK IN THE FALL - But with that all said, hopes should be high for some October baseball in Citi Field. They have a much improved bullpen, a great lineup top to bottom, an ace in their pitching staff, and a pretty good manager. Perhaps this is the year the Mets can finally get over the hump.

So will we see playoff baseball in New York in the Fall? I think it all falls on starting pitching. If they can get good starts from #2-#5 in the rotation, they'll be there. If not, it will be a long year with no playoffs at all.

- SB

I KNEW I LOVED SPORTS ILLUSTRATED

Over the years, Sports Illustrated and I have had our ups and downs. We went through a stretch where I just wasn't reading it, so I cancelled the subscription. When I had time again and renewed the magazine, my free gift was stolen in the mail and they never made up for it.

But all is forgiven.

Sports Illustrated is picking the Mets to win the World Series.

I actually can't disagree with much that Sports Illustrated has picked in terms of this year's standings. If I were to have gone through the standings, I would have had the Mets over the Angels in the World Series, like they do (and like I've had every year since 1999, probably).

They also have the tight race in the AL Central that I'm predicting, though the records of the teams there were significantly lower in their opinion than in mine.

So I'm thrilled...at least someone is on board with the Mets, besides me.

But, technically, I haven't picked the Mets to win the World Series. Just in case that matters when it comes to karma.


THE YANKEES OPENED THEIR STADIUM, TOO: Justin in NYC was there for the Yankees' exhibition game at their new stadium last night. He wrote about it here. Part of me wants to ignore the fact that I wasn't at the 'first-ever' game at Citi Field (or the second-ever, or the third-ever, if you count the St. John's game)...but I'll be at the first game that counts, which is good enough for me.

RANDOM PREDICTION: AL CENTRAL

The American League Central will be the most competitive division in baseball in 2009.

Let's break this down - in the AL East, the Orioles and Blue Jays will be below .500. In the AL West, Seattle is terrible. In the NL East, the Nationals will be bad, the NL Central has the Pirates and Astros, and the NL West is the worst division in baseball.

Bringing us back to the AL Central:

The Twins barely missed the playoffs, losing a one-game playoff to the White Sox, who enter the season as defending division champs. The Indians are now two seasons removed from their disappointing ending to the 2007 season and can't be counted out as a threat. This is the year the Royals get back above .500. And then you have the Tigers, who have to be chomping at the bit to avenge last year's disaster of a season.

I think, if it's mathematically possible, you have 5 teams right there that play better than .500 ball all year...making the AL Central the most competitve division in baseball in 2009.

For the sake of argument, here's my order of divisions in terms of competitiveness:

1) AL Central
2) NL East
3) NL West (the Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rockies really all could win the division)
4) AL East (a very good 3-team race)
5) NL Central (a bunch of teams have a chance, but none are all that good...that's right, Cubs. Win a playoff game sometime then we'll talk)
6) AL West (the Angels comfortably win this division...maybe even the American League)

ANOTHER RANDOM PREDICTION

I hope you remember that I've been saying that the Reds are on the come for a couple of years now.

Because now it's the vogue thing to say. "The Reds are the team most likely to be this year's Tampa Bay Rays," I've heard said in various places...like my "Sporting News" Baseball Preview magazine, for instance (though the Reds sit fourth in their standings).

Well, I'm here to tell you that I think the Reds are another year away. Let's talk Cincinnati in 2010.

This year's version of last year's Tampa Bay Rays will be the Florida Marlins. I bet the Marlins ride their strong pitching to a second-place finish in the NL East...which will probably be good enough for a National League wild card berth.

We're picking a long-shot here, and this is a long shot, but they definitely have the starting pitching depth (and talent) to make a regular season run. It's also the end of their 6-year rebuilding cycle - 1997 champs, 2003 champs, and now it's 2009. (I just thought of that - it wasn't part of my argument coming in. But I really like it.)

The holes are plenty, but the Marlins are young enough that they have a lot of players who could break through this year and show they're more than capable of filling the holes.

And heaven knows they've shown October-type intensity when they've ruined the Mets' past two seasons late in the year.

This year it could very well be another team whose playoff hopes they ruin - in the playoffs.

A RESPONSE TO THE COMMENTS: Thanks to Dave in Brighton for the comment on Chris Davis. I really think Josh Hamilton has a come-back-to-earth-type year this year, so in my mind it's not a tremendous reach to think Davis will be better than Hamilton. Remember Hamilton's second half fade last year? That might have been more of a sign of things to come in 2009.

RANDOM PREDICTION FOR 2009

Perhaps I mis-titled this segment yesterday. I don't really think these are bold predictions - they're more random predictions. So I'll continue in this new vein to tell you:

The Best Player on the Texas Rangers in 2009 will be Chris Davis.

The reason this is so random is because I was all set to declare Davis the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year. But then I realized, to the best of my knowledge, that he qualified as a rookie last year (and received no votes for ROY). But I thought he put up some impressive numbers -

In just 80 games (295 at-bats), Davis hit .285 with 17 homers and 55 RBI. Project that out to a full season, and I think he gets 35 homers and 100+ RBI - pretty good for someone you haven't really heard of.

And if you have heard of him, I'm sorry that I missed the boat. Those numbers just caught my eye.

Now excuse me while I add Davis to my fantasy team.

BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR 2009 - #1

OK. Let's cut the charade. If I picked the divisions again this year, you know who I'd end up picking to win everything. So I'm going outside the box this year with some bold predictions. And I'll stay away from most things involving the Mets.

Also, I'm running out of time to go on the record with any kind of picks...season starts in less than a week, and I can't believe I'm finally writing that.

So, without further ado - my first Bold Prediction for 2009 is: Neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees will win the 2009 World Series.

I am aware of the tremendous social risk I take in writing that. Sad as it is, 80% of my readers are Red Sox or Yankees fans (God bless you, Steve in Queens, for knocking down that percentage). But I'm not making the pick to spite you all, or because I hold any sort of grudge that in the 23 seasons since the Mets last won a World Series you all have celebrated 6 world championships and a couple of other league championships, as well as plenty of playoff appearances.

In fact, one of those teams, and quite possibly both, will probably make the playoffs. It will in all probability be the Yankees. But I don't think either team wins the World Series this year. Or even gets there.

It's wrong to base assumptions on the World Baseball Classic, but I think part of the WBC was a harbinger of things to come for the Red Sox. Lots of little tweaks from Kevin Youkilis to Dustin Pedroia...and I feel like it's going to be that type of year in Boston. I feel like someone will be suffering from some kind of nick or bruise most of the year, and they'll never really get to the point where they are as good as they've been the past couple of years. Which means they'll still be good, but not championship-level good.

As for the Yankees, I feel like they have the potential to be this year's version of last year's Tigers. They could be a huge disappointment. Of course, they could get everything to go right and be the best team ever...but these types of spending sprees never seem to go that way, do they?

So I think the age on some of the Yankees will catch up to them (Jeter, Damon, Pettitte, Posada), and that will be a little too much for the new guns to make up for.

I'm not sure who exactly will win the World Series, but I'm feeling pretty confident the AL champ will not come from Boston or New York.

YOUR 2008 NFL STANDINGS

For the first time since I was about 15, I decided to go through the NFL schedule and pick every game, then put them into standings. I must warn you - despite my best efforts, I always think the Jets will win more games than they do. So please keep that in mind when you look at my awesome graphic (click it go see it bigger). And I will do a bit of objective analysis below the awesome graphic.

Though I think the win-loss numbers are a bit skewed (let's give them a margin of error of plus/minus two games), I'm pretty happy with the way the standings fell out. I think they're a pretty accurate read on the NFL:

1) The best teams are in the AFC.

2) While I think I overvalued the NFC East, the best teams in the NFC are definitely in that division, and I think it's realistic that the division can produce three playoff teams.

3) Though I think the Seahawks will manage at least 8 wins, the NFC West continues to stink.

4) There are some easy schedules dotting the AFC. The Patriots have one. The Broncos have another, and while I think 14 wins is a stretch, they could make the playoffs. (Remember, this year is an NFC West year for the Jets, which as I wrote about in February, might mean good things for them.) (Another parenthetical thought - based on opponents' record, the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the league. And the Jets' looks significantly harder. But that's based on previous year's records, and they're playing the Patriots twice, while the Pats are playing the Jets twice. That skews the numbers...so I don't think opponents' winning pct. is too accurate. I do think the AFC East as a whole has an easier schedule...mostly because they all face the NFC West, and the likes of Oakland and Kansas City.)

5) Most telling, though I have the Jets at 12 wins and in the playoffs (I didn't do tiebreakers - the biggest difference between me at 15 and me at 30...I just put the Jets in over Jacksonville), the AFC is ridiculously difficult. It's realistic that a couple of teams could have 12 wins and miss the playoffs this year...or at least, 11 or 10 wins...a number that would probably get them in in the NFC.

For the playoffs, I had the Cowboys coming out of the NFC, and the Jets (of course) coming out of the AFC. I'll hold off on the Super Bowl prediction until late January...but you can guess which way I'm leaning right now.

Listen, I'm not good at this, because the way I see it at this point of the season is that everyone's 0-0, and the Jets might as well be the team to win it all. If I don't believe it now, what fun will the season be?

If you want a slightly more objective look, here's my cousin's picks...which are actually very similar to mine. The biggest difference is that I'm not buying into the Saints this year - he clearly likes them. Post your picks in the comments if you care to compare.

NFC EAST Dallas 12-4, Giants 10-6 (Wildcard), Philly 9-7 (I really want to reverse these but after last year's 5-11 prediction for Giants I can't), Wash. 5-11

NFC NORTH Vikings 9-7, Packers 8-8, Bears 7-9, Lions 4-12

NFC SOUTH Saints 13-3, Carolina 10-6 (Wildcard), Tampa 8-8, Atlanta 4-12

NFC WEST Seattle 8-8, Arizona 7-9, St. Louis 5-11, 49ers 4-12 (don't like Martz)

AFC EAST Pats 14-2, Jets 10-6 (Wildcard), Bills 7-9, Miami 4-12

AFC NORTH Browns 9-7, Pitt. 8-8, Bengals 7-9, Balt. 6-10

AFC SOUTH Jacksonville 13-3, Colts 11-5 (Wildcard), Titans 9-7 (I'm worried about them taking Jets spot in playoffs), Houston 6-10

AFC WEST Chargers 14-2, Denver 8-8, KC 4-12, Raiders 3-13

Wildcard round- Giants over Seattle, Carolina over Viks, Jacksonville over Jets, and Indy over Browns
Divisional round- Dallas over Carolina, Saints over Giants, Pats over Indy, Jacksonville over San Diego
AFC/NFC Champs Saints over Dallas and Jacksonville over Pats
SUPERBOWL- Jacksonville over Saints

ON TO JUNE

As we turn the calendar page, I'm going to throw some numbers at you.

The Mets finished with a flurry towards the end of May, keeping me interested into June, at least. And Pedro Martinez* comes back on Tuesday night, so as long as he doesn't get hurt again, that's exciting.

Here's the breakdown:

March: 1-0
April: 13-12
May: 13-15

That 13-15 might not look too impressive, but from where the Mets were a week ago, the overall 27-27 is a huge sigh of relief.
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You know things aren't going so great when I'm relying on an end-of-season prediction in the beginning of June, but I feel like after a hot start like he's had, there's no better time to bring this up. If the name Jay Bruce sounded familiar to you after his call-up by the Reds this week, maybe it's because I had him pegged early (from my season picks on March 23):

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: I really have no idea who the rookies are this year. Just looking randomly at a list of rookies in 2008 I'll go with this Jay Bruce of the Reds. He's an outfielder, and maybe he'll lead the resurgence I think they'll have.
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WRIGHT WATCH: David Wright had a key double Saturday, getting on base ahead of Carlos Beltran's 2-run game-tying homer in the eighth inning. That made me realize we haven't looked at his doubles in a bit:

ALL-TIME LEADER: 792
WRIGHT THIS SEASON: 17 (Berkman leads majors with 21)
WRIGHT CAREER: 158

Watch out, Tris Speaker.
***************
And finally, this could easily be a joke from one of my friends, but here's an e-mail I got after Saturday's posting about Gary Carter (I know, since I now know he's a regular reader, that he doesn't mind that I post the e-mail):

"J:

Enjoyed your take on Gary Carter, and appreciate him being your favorite player. I was just poking fun—hope you weren't too offended.

Best,

Jeff Pearlman
espn.com"

It looked legit, figured it was worth posting. And, for the record, Pearlman's piece was funny.

2008 PLAYOFF/AWARDS PREVIEW

Above you see my picks for division winners (you already knew those, from the previews), and wild cards (you didn't already know those). I think Atlanta and Cleveland emerge as the wild cards, and you can also see that I think Cleveland is able to rebound from last year's heartbreak (revenge over the Red Sox - in a best 3-out-of-5, where maybe they're better suited to beat Boston) to make it to the World Series, and lose to the Mets. Again, only because of Johan Santana. If not for him, this would be an Atlanta-Detroit World Series, based on my new theory, and the Edgar Renteria trade (thanks for picking up on that theory a couple of weeks ago, Dave in Brighton. But there's no way I could have gone Florida-Detroit). Here are my other picks:

NL MVP: Johan Santana will certainly get a lot of votes here, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say Ryan Braun gets the award, as he will lead the Milwaukee Brewers to their playoff appearance.

AL MVP: A la Justin Morneau a couple of years ago, this year it will go to Travis Hafner.

NL CY YOUNG: This is where Johan Santana gets his hardware. They might as well engrave the trophy now.

AL CY YOUNG: Because he's on my fantasy team this year, Roy Halladay.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: I really have no idea who the rookies are this year. Just looking randomly at a list of rookies in 2008 I'll go with this Jay Bruce of the Reds. He's an outfielder, and maybe he'll lead the resurgence I think they'll have.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: I don't know. Jacoby Ellsbury.

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: I think Joe Torre might get some sentimental votes, and if the Dodgers play better than last year, which I think they will, he might get some legitimate votes as well.

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: John Gibbons. I actually had to look this up to make sure he was the manager of the Blue Jays. But he is, and I think a couple of second-place team managers get "Manager of the Year" recognition this year.

PREVIEW: NL EAST

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the National League East.

I would be shocked if the Florida Marlins or Washington Nationals are relevant at all this year. So I'm just going to skirt past them (but check with me again at the end of September, when the Mets close their season against the Marlins - that was a disaster last year).

This will be a three-team race all year....I don't know that there will be a time all year when the Braves, Phillies, and Mets aren't within 5 games of each other.

A disclaimer, a la my American League East preview - this assumes the Mets are healthy come April. I'm still not panicked about their injuries - although everyone in their starting lineup is basically missing time -1) Some are getting healthy, and 2) I'd rather a lot of this happens now than in September. Get it out of the way. Who knows, maybe Moises Alou stays healthy the rest of the year after he comes back from this hernia surgery. (It should be called "hergery". Get rid of a couple of syllables.)

Now, I also need to say this: For the first time in my life, I was prepared to pick against the Mets. I really liked the Braves this year - they just look really good on paper, they didn't go away much of last year, when you didn't think they had it in them, and the Mets had some serious flaws. Then they got Johan Santana, and that was the deciding factor for me - the Mets are going to win the division. It just makes the whole team better - I've gone through that a bunch of times. So if the Mets keep a semblance of health, they are the team to beat. But it won't be in a runaway.

The Braves have a very good rotation. They have a full year of Mark Teixeira. They have the best offensive catcher in the division. Jeff Francoeur is coming off a great year. Chipper Jones is back to being effective (not that it matters, since he's always effective against the Mets). I think the Braves will be back to giving the Mets fits, but unlike the last time Tom Glavine was in Atlanta, the Braves will be looking up at the Mets in the standings for most of the year. (Boy, would I love to be wrong and see the Braves at the bottom of the division...but that's doubtful.)

And then there are the Phillies, who are starting to scare me just a touch. The way they played against the Mets last year should have sent the Mets a message, and hopefully the Mets answer back by dominating Philadelphia this year. The roles are reversed. I think the Phillies will be a little too confident, though, based on what happened last year. They're a good team, don't get me wrong - I think they'll get back to their underachieving selves, as they get into a situation where they are almost the favorites because of what happened last year.

My playoff picks and award winners will come up tomorrow - I need to get it out of the way before the NCAA Tournament gets underway, or else it won't happen. Then it's just sit and wait for the season to start......

WHEN YOU'RE HURT, YOU'RE HURT: Boy, the Mets can't catch a break. Not sure how long of an effect this will have, and all I know about this right now is what I read on the ESPNEWS crawl - but apparently Carlos Delgado was hit by a broken bat shard when he was leading off third base. It required four stitches. That just doesn't happen!

PREVIEW: AL EAST

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the American League East.

So much of what happens in the American League East depends on health. The Blue Jays haven't been healthy for the past two years - they've lost key players each of those years. The Red Sox have stayed pretty healthy during their recent run of success, and have been threatened by injuries this spring. So what follows is a prediction based on the way I see the division now - with no key injuries:

Baltimore will be last place. That's a bold statement in the division that features the Tampa Bay Rays, but I think Tampa is looking at a reprise of the 2004 season - 4th place, Baby! The Orioles are just such a mess - and their pitching looks awful without "Bedard" at the top of the rotation. The Rays have built themselves a solid young team, and may be flirting with .500 if they didn't have to play the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox so much. I also love the fact that they're going toe-to-toe with the Yankees in Spring Training - more on that in a minute.

I'm not in love with Joe Girardi managing the Yankees. I think part of his success in Florida was that he was able to get respect from a team that really had no experience/experience with any sort of leader. I don't think he's as good a fit with the Yankees. I really think there will be tension all year long, and that sideshow will result in a missed post-season, and a third place finish. I think it's already started - I think the fight with Tampa was positive on the Rays' side and just plain silly from the Yankees' point of view. You block home plate, you should expect to get hit - Girardi would demand that of his own players if the situation were reversed. He was a catcher, too - he knows what the position is like. The fact that they retaliated like they did - it's childish, really. I think that sort of thing will be happening all year long and the final year at Yankee Stadium will be a disappointment.

Now is where the injuries factor in. If they stay healthy, I think the Blue Jays are the second-place team. They have a very strong rotation, and I feel like Scott Rolen may have a rebirth in Toronto. I like the additions they made, and they have some good players from the past couple of years. Now, if these guys don't play, they're in trouble - but we're going on the assumption they'll be healthy enough to play all season.

The Red Sox are in the same boat, somewhat. Injuries could shake that team up. Curt Schilling is already gone for much of the year. Josh Beckett's injury is a little more serious than I initially thought it would be. If he has this problem (back spasms) for much of the year, that really hurts the Sox. And on the other end of the rotation - Jonathan Papelbon always seems to be dealing with something towards the end of the year - that's something to watch out for, too. Bottom line - I think Boston has enough to defend their division title - but these top three teams might finish pretty close.

PREVIEW: AL WEST

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the American League West.

The Seattle Mariners got better. The Oakland A's got worse. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim stayed at about the same level they've been at recently. And the Texas Rangers may have done just enough to scoot past Oakland and out of last place.

The A's are in rough shape. They're like the Twins will be this year - they've gotten rid of anyone capable of making an impact this year, and whereas in past years they've been able to survive it, this year, they're going to suffer because of it. They're destined for last place. Want proof - look at their outfield and tell me who you've heard of.

Not far behind (or not far ahead in the standings, I guess), though, are the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are kind of talented. On paper, they look like a good team. But they don't win games against teams in their division, and they haven't done much to get better than last year. And last year they were in last place. Milton Bradley should do wonders for that clubhouse, incidentally. That might be fun to keep an eye on.

The race will be between Seattle and Los Angeles.

Seattle will be very good. Unfortunately for them, there will be four or five teams in the American League that will end up being slightly better, so they will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. I like the Erik Bedard deal for Seattle - but I think it will pay off next year. I think Bedard has a year of adjusting, and the Mariners are 2009 West division champs.

The reason it's not this year is because the Angels stayed good, and might even be better this year than their division-winning performance last year. They're like the opposite of the Rangers - they win the games they're supposed to...and, well, they're good. The West will be a two-horse race for much of the season, but I expect Los Angeles to pull away about mid-September:

PREVIEW: NL WEST

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the National League West.

You know what? The National League West might be one of the tougher divisions in baseball. The NL East has three of the best teams in the league, possibly the three best, but the other two are going to be among the worst in baseball. The American League East is similar. But the National League West, the more I think about it, has four very good teams. Last year it was the only division in baseball with four teams above .500, and don't forget that it took a 163rd game to eliminate one of the top three teams from the playoffs. I expect more of the same this year as far as competitiveness.

Let's start at the bottom and work our way up. The San Francisco Giants will be awful. Aaron Rowand was a nice addition, but, um.....yeah. Bengie Molina is their cleanup hitter. Moving on.

The fourth place team, I think, will be the San Diego Padres. And they're pretty good. They have a very good pitching staff, and I think it will be a tight 3-4 finish between San Diego and last year's National League champion, the Colorado Rockies. I think it's a step backward for Colorado, but I still think they'll finish with about 85 wins.

I think the Dodgers get the "most improved" award for the division. They were kind of hurt by injuries last year, and it's looking like they might have been bitten a bit by the injury bug again this year, but they should be good. I expect them to be more like the wild card-winning team of two years ago than the 82-80 team of last year.

But I think the Arizona Diamondbacks bounce back from an unimpressive performance in the NLCS to defend their division crown. The thing about them from last year is that they are so young, and if Randy Johnson contributes anything, that could only help. I think they'd be fine without him:

PREVIEW: AL CENTRAL

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the American League Central.

I guess I'm sold on Detroit. But I'm not 100% sure. They look great on paper. But so did the 1993 Mets. And I think with these Tigers, there's some potential for clubhouse explosions - between Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, and Kenny Rogers, someone's going to get a black eye. But I think the big difference between those star-studded Mets failures and this team is Jim Leyland - he won't take crap from the players, and he probably won't have to. One big thing to realize about Detroit is there's this strange Florida Marlins connection:

1) Jim Leyland managed the Marlins to their first world championship in 1997.
2) On that team was current Tigers DH Gary Sheffield.
3) The Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins this off-season. Both players were on the 2003 championship team.
4) The catcher on that Marlins team was Ivan Rodriguez....starting catcher for the 2008 Detroit Tigers. (Also, that 2003 Marlins team began the year with Jeff Torborg as their manager. Torborg also managed the 1993 Mets. Whoa. Spooky.)

I don't think the Tigers will go all the way in the American League playoffs. (Who will beat them? - find out next week when I publish my playoff picks!) But I do think they'll be good enough and veteran enough to win what might shape up to be a tough division.

Why is it such a tough division? Well, the Indians have that year of experience, as a young team, of having gotten to within one game of the World Series (three times). And they have that bitter taste in their mouth after blowing the 3-games-to-1 lead to Boston. And they still have a very, very good pitching staff.

The White Sox are strange. I think they'll get back to being good - but they really fell off the pace last year. They went from world champs to 90 wins to 72 wins over three seasons - you have to think last year was the aberration. They managed to keep Mark Buerhle, and that was important - would he have stuck around if he didn't see potential? They're not going to threaten the Tigers, but they'll finish with a better-than-.500 record and win some important games.

I always want to pick Kansas City to finish better than they do. And I do think they're on an upswing. I think this will be a breakthrough year for them - a year where they don't finish in last place, but more importantly, a year they build on. The last time they didn't finish in last place was the year they won 83 games....then lost 100+ for three straight seasons. I like rooting for Kansas City, and they're one of those teams like the Reds, which I wrote about yesterday - I keep expecting them to pull out one of those miraculous turnarounds and surprise everyone. Maybe this year.

And then the Twins. 2008 is a year for the Twins to find out what they have in 2009. Francisco Liriano needs to come back healthy and dominant. Carlos Gomez needs to show that he was worth being the centerpiece of the Johan Santana deal (I think he'll be exciting for Twins fans to watch). And then the Twins need to figure out what else they have so they can gear up for the following year - because I think this will be a year of mourning in Minnesota:

PREVIEW: NL CENTRAL

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the National League Central.

It's the NL Central that really compelled me to do these previews this year. Everyone - or at least a lot of people - loves the Cubs this year. I don't. I can't really put my finger on why. And I actually was surprised when I saw something about the Cubs defending their division title this year - I had to go look up to see that they won the Central last year. I forgot how close that division got at the end of the year.

The Cubs didn't win last year, though, because they were better than everyone else. They won because the rest of the division was worse than them. That won't be the case this year.

The Cubs are OK...but I don't think they're better than that. And there are some interesting storylines in Chicago - how will Kosuke Fukudome do? Will Kerry Wood add anything out of the bullpen? But the storyline that will not be addressed is will the Cubs win on the 100th anniversary of their last championship...because they won't.

Most of the rest of the division is a disaster. The Pirates, Astros, and Cardinals are all going in the wrong direction. The Pirates are a mess, and the Astros and Cardinals will be plagued by distractions all year. The Astros have the Miguel Tejada situation, and St. Louis has similar steroid accusations and implications on their team.

For some reason, I like the Reds. The past few years I think I might have even picked them to win the division. I'm not going to do that this year, but I am going to say this - I think the Reds are the next team to come out and surprise people. Like the Tigers in 2006, like the Rockies last year, I think the Reds are the next candidate to do that - maybe even this year. I'm not going to pick them, but they're a team with decent talent that plays in a weak division. They could end up winning the division.

But I think this year Milwaukee will finish what they started last year, and make it to the post-season. They're no great shakes either - a lot of pitching question marks - but they should hit their way through the season. I don't think they'll run away with the Central, but I think they'll win it. And looking through this division closely, I think I understand why so many people are picking the Cubs - there's not a lot else out there. It might not take more than 82 wins to win this division again - it was 85 last year. Here's how I think they'll finish:

1-1: Sunday was a big day for me, basketball-wise. Well, not for me personally, but two of the institutions from which I graduated. I'll start with the loss - Boston University lost to Hartford in the America East semifinals - always an exciting time of year as the conference tournaments get underway in college basketball. Unfortunately, BU couldn't get one more win and get into the championship game. I was especially disappointed because I thought they could really win this year (they got hot at the right time of the year) and then get smoked in the NCAA Tournament.

The good news, though, is that my high school, Holy Cross High School, in Flushing, New York, beat Christ the King for the New York City championship. That's their first championship since 1968. So congratulations, Knights. And here's where it all ties together: Dennis Wolff, head coach of the Boston University men's basketball team - mentioned just a paragraph ago - is also a graduate of Holy Cross High School.

ONE-TRACK MIND

Honest to goodness, when it gets this close to baseball season I have a one track mind. I'm able to shift my focus to schoolwork during the school day...but almost every other second it's "MetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMets." Really, it is. I even talk to The Baby about the Mets, like she gives a hoot. But that's the reason I created this here blog - so I can spare the ones I love with these types of verbal assaults. So here's what's on my mind right now:

-Jose Reyes, aka THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED - I keep forgetting to mention this, but I need to change my NL MVP vote from last week in my season predictions. I have to go with Reyes. The guy is getting all sorts of national recognition now, and people know how valuable he is to the Mets. If he stays healthy and has another year like he did last year, and the Mets need him more this year than last year, because it will be a tighter race...Jose Reyes will be the NL MVP. (I had said Ryan Howard, which isn't a bad thought, but Reyes might get it this year.)

-Duaner Sanchez - Sanchez's comeback from last season's shoulder injury, suffered in an off-hours taxicab accident in Miami, took a big hit. Sanchez might not be back now until August, after feeling/hearing a pop in his shoulder while pitching the other day. I would not expect Sanchez to be effective this year. Also, I get the feeling this might be very, very serious, and possible career-ending...or at least, ending Sanchez's career with the Mets. He's in Willie Randolph's doghouse, after reporting overweight, and this injury just keeps getting worse, it seems.

- Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins - The other day I mentioned that both of the former Padres, who the Mets got in exchange for Royce Ring and Heath Bell, could open the season in the minors. Well, Adkins has no options, so he might be dealt before the season opens. Johnson might get the chance to start the season on the Mets roster because of an injury to......

-Lastings Milledge - he hurt his hand the other day, and it's still causing him pain, so he might not be with the Mets come Sunday night. Too bad, because he worked hard this spring and deserved to break camp with the team. But Ben Johnson might keep his roster spot warm (which was only keeping Mike Pelfrey's roster spot warm until the Mets needed their fifth starter).

-Scott Schoenweis - The last thing that I spend some time thinking about during the day is the Mets' newest reliever. I always liked watching Schoenweis pitch with the Angels...although his numbers haven't been the greatest...I look forward to seeing him contribute with the Mets.

THE 2007 PICKS

I figure if I don't do this now, I'm in danger of never doing it. In my limited spring training write-ups, I've been somewhat critical of the Mets. It's not that I don't think they'll be good...it's just that I don't think they'll be as good all season as they were last year. But I think this team has the chance to hit its stride at the most important time - September and October - which is the opposite of what happened last year. So, without further ado:

THE NL EAST

A lot of people are down on the Mets. I agree with a lot of what they are saying, but it's not the end of the world. The Mets just aren't going to be as good as they were last year...but they'll still be good. The problems are:

1) The rest of the NL East is better (except for Washington, who I hear might set the record for losses in a season)

2) The Mets' pitching is weaker.

BUT!!

The Mets can still outhit 90% of the National League, and they will still win the division.

The Phillies, I think, will run away with the wild card this year. I think the NL East will be a 2-horse race (I don't buy the Braves for a full year, and the Marlins will take a step back), and the Mets will pull away from the Phillies in September with a healthy Pedro* leading the way...but the Phillies will still be better than the rest of the National League.

NL CENTRAL

Surprise here is the Cincinnati Reds...mostly by process of elimination. Carlos Zambrano guaranteeing a world championship pretty much guarantees the opposite. The Astros will probably finish second, but they're not going to be very good. St. Louis shouldn't have been the division champ last year, let alone the other things they did afterwards (*sigh*), and they'll be third place this year. Then the Cubs. Then the Brewers, then Pirates. So the Reds sustain for the full year what they started and couldn't maintain last year.

NL WEST

The only other good team in the National League (outside of the Mets and Phillies) will be the Los Angeles Dodgers, who I feel are much improved this year. They'll win this division easily, outpacing the Padres (under new management), Rockies (improved, but not great), Diamondbacks, and Giants.

NLCS: I think Mets over Phillies, but I can see the Dodgers getting past Philly too. Mets to the World Series.

AL EAST

The Red Sox did a lot of tweaking, and improving. The Yankees got rid of some problems, but still have the usual baggage (A-Rod). I say Sox win the division, and Yankees get the wild card, and next year the Jays and Orioles make their move (with the Devil Rays maybe a couple of years away?).

AL CENTRAL

Here's where I think a lot will happen in 2007. The Detroit Tigers had too many career years by some aging guys (Kenny Rogers) and young guys last year. I don't think they'll repeat that. I think Gary Sheffield might be on an island, and the Tigers won't recapture the glory they experienced last year, as age catches up to some, and the league catches up to the young guys. The Indians, I think, will be better, like 2 seasons ago, but not great. The White Sox will be good, maybe third place behind the Indians, and ahead of the Tigers. But I think the Twins win the division - I think they're the best team. Now, the big news: I think the Royals will be a lot better. I think they'll be over .500, and be the most improved team in baseball. I can't particularly tell you why, but I think they had a smart offseason, and improved themselves in the right areas.

AL WEST

The A's win this division. They lost Barry Zito, but they'll have a (hopefully) healthy Rich Harden back for an entire season, so they're right back to where they were last year. And I think Mike Piazza will be what Frank Thomas was last year for them. The Texas Rangers are a chic pick to win the West (especially since Buck Showalter is now gone...and we know his history), but I don't think they'll pass the A's.

ALCS: The Sox and Yanks make early exits, and the Twins have the pitching to outlast the A's.

WORLD SERIES: Mets in 6. Why not? It's a new season. Hope springs eternal.

AWARDS

NL MVP: Ryan Howard. He's going to carry the Phillies all year, especially in that park.

AL MVP: I want to say someone different here, but I think I have to go with David Ortiz. If the Red Sox win the division, like I think they will, he will be the main reason why.

NL CY YOUNG: Despite Cole Hamels' claim that he'll win 20, this award will go to Carlos Zambrano, who will then take the money and run in free agency.

AL CY YOUNG: Hmm...Rich Harden.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: I don't know any NL rookies. If Mike Pelfrey qualifies, I'll say him...but I fear he doesn't qualify.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Let's go with Daisuke Matsuzaka. Why not.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Let's say he stays healthy and playing in his hometown....Cliff Floyd puts up some nice numbers in Chicago.

So there are the picks. I'll still be distracted this weekend by the NCAA tournament (I'm having a great bracket this year so far...one of my best ever in 14 years of keeping track), and then school has been busy...and I'm busy setting up the "New Baseball Pool II"....but I'll be ready to go for the regular season. So please keep checking back.

HOW TO READ A BASEBALL PREVIEW, JOHNNYMETS.BLOGSPOT.COM STYLE

Manny Ramirez is reporting late to camp due to a family issue...that can only mean it's time for me to be reading my baseball preview.

I picked up the Street & Smith's Baseball Preview the other day, and I'm really flying through it this year. Usually it's torturous, because I go from team to team, and make notes for fantasy baseball as I read. This year, it's only reading, no writing, so I'm really flipping through the magazine.

#1. So the first step is to figure out which baseball preview to get. The only one that was out when I was at the store was Street & Smith's, so that's what I got. I went to my bookshelf (for some reason I keep the old magazines), and I had been on a long streak of "The Sporting News" baseball previews until last year...last year, for some reason, I didn't get a baseball preview. So usually it's The Sporting News for baseball, Street & Smith for football. This year I bucked that trend.

#2. Before I dive into the team previews, I like to read the articles, just to get a sense of what to look out for this year. Sometimes there are players highlighted, sometimes milestones within reach...this year, there was a feature on Daisuke Matsuzaka, as well as a story on pitchers over 40 (that hit close to home for the Mets). So I read a couple of those.

#3. Then the team previews. This is a multi-faceted process. The first thing, before the team previews, there is usually a division preview. So I read that for the division I'm about to take on. Then I read the breakdowns, team-by-team, within that division. In past years I have read all of the division previews first, then skip around from team to team until I've read all 30. Not this year.
-What I am doing this year is this - I read all of the American League: East, Central West. But for the National League, I start with the West, then go to the Central, then I save the East for last, so I have something to look forward to. Because if I read about the Mets first, I lose interest in the rest of the teams fast.
(In case you haven't already come to this conclusion, I have strange habits.)

#3a) So I don't just read the team previews - there's a strategy to this as well. I read all of the little sidebars first. I start with the prospects report (Street & Smith's has a really good one this year - the top 10 prospects in each organization). Then I go to the scout's view on a player. Then I read the actual preview article. Then I read the small little stat boxes they give you....then I read the opposing scout's view of the team as a whole.

#3b) Now, here's the weirdest part, but for me, one of the most fun - the last thing I do before I turn the page on a team is look at the players' birthdays. The main thing I look for is 7/7, my birthday, then 8/11, The Wife's. Now, I also keep an eye out for 10/2, The Baby's birthday. Whenever I see 4/8, it also catches my eye, because that's Gary Carter's birthday (and it also happens to be Dave in Brighton's birthday).

So that's how I read a baseball preview magazine. I realized as I was reading today that I read it strangely. My question for you, and I invite your comments, is, how do you read your baseball previews? (My obsessive-compulsiveness, I think, is what has led me to develop this system, because I feel an urge to read every word on the page - even the little stats.)

NOW THE INTERESTING STUFF: If you glazed through most of the above, I ask you to read that last paragraph, just above, so at least you can comment on how you read baseball previews. But here are a couple of things I've gleaned from this year's baseball preview:

-I'm not going to get into my picks yet, but Street & Smith's picks the Phillies to win the NL East, with the Mets getting the NL Wild Card.
-They also pick the Red Sox over the Dodgers in the World Series. Again, my picks will come as the season gets closer.
-Here's a real interesting thing...for some reason, one of the little sidebars in the magazine is each organization's "Best-Ever Shortstops", and they rank the top 3. I was really struck by the Red Sox' page:
#1: Joe Cronin (fine, Hall of Famer, retired number)
#2: Rico Petrocelli (OK, fan favorite, fine)
#3: Rick Burleson

What? Where's Nomar? For that matter, what about Johnny Pesky? He's still with the organization for crying out loud. The Pesky thing doesn't bother me nearly as much as the omission of Nomar, though - that's just horrible. He's their best shortstop ever. Period. OK, actually, I just looked up Cronin's numbers. Wow. He is indeed their best-ever shortstop. But Nomar has to come next. I don't care about longevity. He's better than Petrocelli and Burleson combined...and keep in mind, I don't even care for Nomar all that much.

AND FINALLY...: Usually, I have a west coast team that I root for, so that with the baseball package, after the Mets game is over, I can switch over and watch my west coast team into the early morning hours. In past years, I have found the Angels to be a fun team to watch (although their broadcasters bother me), so it's been the Angels that I prefer. This year, though, despite a boring brand of baseball, I might be tuning in the Oakland A's as often as I can. I just enjoy rooting for Mike Piazza that much - I am very excited for him to be getting a chance to DH this year. I think he'll have a good year, and I want to watch as many of his at-bats as I can. The other interesting thing about Piazza this year is that the A's want to rest Jason Kendall more...so maybe Piazza gets back behind the plate? There's also a chance Piazza will get some time at first base - the A's have a bit of a question mark there. But he's going to primarily be a DH - and I want him to do well.

IN DEFENSE OF MY PICKS (see bracket below)

A very quiet day in Mets camp, so it's a perfect day to tell you why I picked the teams to finish the way I did.

I'm not going to talk about the Mets, because their season preview is still to come. But I do believe they will win the NL East, finally surpassing the Braves, and advance to (and win) the World Series. Because that's the type of year I want.

The Braves aren't going to totally fall out of it, though. They're going to get the Wild Card - and I really don't think there will be much drama in the Wild Card chase. I'm not buying many teams out West, and in the Central, I don't see Houston doing as well as last year, and no one else will be very close to the Braves. And...say it with me now....the Phillies don't scare me. Another disappointing year in Philadelphia.

I like the Cardinals to come out of the Central, mostly because every year I kind of overlook them, but they're always solid. Also, they have a beautiful new ballpark this year, and that'll work to their advantage, so they'll win the division.

I'm big on the Dodgers this year. First of all, that division is awful. They will beat up on the rest of the teams in the West. I think Nomar Garciaparra is Comeback Player of the Year. I think Derek Lowe pitches a lot better this year (his head wasn't in the game last year, he admits - and he is the biggest headcase in the league). And I am a big believer that Grady Little got screwed in Boston, and now with another chance to manage, does very well. I think the Dodgers might just quietly finish with the best record in the National League.

In the AL, I'll start out West. I had a hard time picking between the A's and Angels, because the A's are close to having built another young, winning team. I went with the Angels because they are a veteran team who have been there before. Next year for Oakland.

It's this year for Cleveland. After coming so close last year, they pick up this year's Wild Card, finishing second to the Chicago White Sox. The Sox came out of nowhere (in my mind) last year, and won everything - they haven't changed much. If anything, they've improved their clubhouse demeanor without Frank Thomas, and have a chance to get to the World Series again this year.

With the Indians taking the wild card, it's down to the Red Sox and Yankees in the East. I don't think the Blue Jays are there quite yet, fighting for the division title, but I think they'll do enough damage to cost one of the big teams a shot at the playoffs - and this year, I think that will be the Yankees. I like Shawn Chacon, and I think Randy Johnson will have a good year, but I think there will be injuries on the Yankees this year, and I expect the Red Sox to be good this year - good enough to make the playoffs, anyway. They'll bow out in the first round, as will the Angels.

It'll be the Dodgers and Mets advancing in the NL, and the Mets will beat the White Sox in 5 games in the World Series. Oh, how I hope this comes true.

NATS ARE DOOMED: I didn't mention the Washington Nationals above - that's because they're not worth mentioning. On Wednesday, Alfonso Soriano played the outfield, after refusing to do so the day before. I think with that kind of attitude, and with the likes of Jose Guillen and Livan Hernandez in the clubhouse, the Nationals are going to have a summer full of disharmony.

*BOOF*: There's someone in the Twins' minor league system we're going to have to keep an eye on. I was looking through the transactions the other day, and saw the Twins had reassigned pitcher Boof Bonser. What a name. We'll watch him and keep you posted - and definitely let you know if he gets called up.

THE OTHER SHOE: Some of the steroids fallout is starting to happen. More releases from "Game of Shadows", the book that "outed" Barry Bonds, now point the finger at Gary Sheffield as having knowingly obtained steroids from Bonds' trainer, Greg Anderson. I'm not going to like some of the other names that I feel are going to be coming out....

SHOULD HAVE PUT AN ASTERISK ON HIM

Well, something was bound to happen, because things were going a little too well. Billy Wagner has a problem with the middle finger on his left (throwing) hand. He's been ordered to shut down for a while, in the hope that it will go away. It's a tendon irritation or something complicated like that. Wagner doesn't seem to think it's a big deal right now....but what I don't think Wagner realizes is that he is now a Met. A high-priced Met. And sometimes little things turn into big things. So hopefully this is nothing, and it goes away quickly. Otherwise, Billy Wagner isn't available early in the season, and things get a little dicey for the Mets' championship hopes. I'll step up the worrying if Wagner's not back in a week.

RICKEY TALKS: Rickey Henderson apparently held court with the Mets' speedsters (and some catchers) to give base-stealing tips. He also gave tips on getting on base, something the Mets need THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED, Jose Reyes, to improve at. It can't hurt that he's learning from Henderson. As long as he just learns the baseball skills - not all the baggage that goes along with them.

'86 METS ROUNDUP: This is just great - on Opening Day, Jesse Orosco will throw out the ceremonial first pitch...to Hall of Famer Gary Carter, re-creating the last pitch of the 1986 season. It's going to be the kickoff to the season-long 20th anniversary of the 1986 Championship. I love it. I wish I could be there. I also hope Orosco and Carter don't try any re-enacting the celebration silliness - that would ruin the moment. I've been waiting 20 years for a 1986 Mets reunion - for it to come in a year where the Mets can recapture a championship....it definitely might be worth the wait.

PICKS FOR 2006 (It rhymes):

I'll go into these picks more in-depth as the week progresses - but I feel really good about the Mets this year. Obviously. And I think the White Sox, if they did it last year, can make the World Series again this year - but this year, they'll have to face the Mets. Also note that there are no Yankees in this bracket - I just think there's only room for one team out of the AL East this year...and later this week, I'll tell you why it's the Red Sox.