ANALYSIS THROUGH FOUR WEEKS

As I hinted at a couple of weeks ago, I'm still re-working this idea - and more changes might be coming - but here are my bi-weekly thoughts - some good and bad from the Mets, and some good and bad from around the Majors. Again, more changes could be on the way...and this week has a decided bullpen theme, as far as the Mets are concerned, based on some of my thoughts last week. (User-friendly instructions - Happy Mr. Met is for the good Mets news, Sad Mr. Met is for the upsetting Mets news, and the happy and sad MLB logos are for the good and bad MLB news, respectively.)

MOST IMPRESSIVE: Believe it or not, the bullpen hasn't been all bad. When the Mets have been able to get him the ball in save situations, Billy Wagner has been lights-out. He's one of the best in the game right now. I fully expect something will go wrong with him at some point - he'll become unreliable, he'll choke when it counts down the stretch, or he'll get hurt - but for now, he's impressive.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Not a total surprise, since we have seen what he is capable of, but I guess the fact that he's come back from his injury to pitch so well makes it a surprise. Duaner Sanchez looks like he did in 2006 before he got hurt- which is high praise. The Mets could use some more players who look like they did in 2006.
LEAST IMPRESSIVE: There may have been some overreaction by blanketing the whole bullpen as bad last week. Therefore, I can't put the entire bullpen in this spot (Joe Smith, Wagner, Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, and, believe it or not, Scott Schoeneweis, have all been good-to-better-than-good). But I'll single out Jorge Sosa for now, since he's partners in crime with Aaron Heilman in giving up the big hit at the wrong time.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: We've talked about it already, but Aaron Heilman has been in a severe downward spiral the past season and a half or so. He's nowhere near as dominant as he used to be. Perhaps dominant is the wrong word- let's go with "effective". But because he has set the bar high in the past, he qualifies as a disappointment. Last week, Ron Darling said it looks like some hitters in the National League are just sitting on Heilman's change up, and then rocketing it out of the park. I think he's right.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: I haven't commented on him yet, because it hasn't come up, and I usually don't just throw around praise for the Braves, but Chipper Jones is off to an incredible start. I'm noticing it because he's on my fantasy team, but more than that, he's hitting well north of .400 and is on base almost every other inning. He also has been clutch. And it's not just against the Mets.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: The Florida Marlins are still in first place at this point of the season. Is that a surprise? You bet.


LEAST IMPRESSIVE: I mentioned it last week, but the Texas Rangers have been dreadful. They're challenging the Nationals for the "worst team in baseball" title. The Red Sox series did more harm than good, obviously, but they really weren't doing anything this year anyway.



BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: I'm not sure if the Yankees qualify here as a team yet - they're right around .500, and they've been quiet, but not terribly disappointing. I would guess they'll be like that all year - I didn't have them making the playoffs in Girardi's first year anyway. But moreso than the Yankees as a team is second baseman Robinson Cano, who is hitting below the Mendoza line in this first month. This is an observation, unlike Chipper Jones, that I am attributing directly to my fantasy team. I need him to turn it around - and he'll certainly help New York as well when he does. Cano is a career .244 hitter in April (that includes this year), but he has never had a month this bad.

THIS JUST IN: Speaking of disappointments, I just saw on ESPN as breaking news that the Giants are going to move Barry Zito to the bullpen. Ouch.

MEET THE METS - THE BULLPEN

I disagree with those who say the Johan Santana acquisition eases the strain on the bullpen. While they may be needed less with Santana pitching than, say, a 41-year-old Tom Glavine, the same figures will be relied on again and again, and the strain on them will be just as much as it has been, with extra pressure to secure wins for Santana.

If all goes well this year, the Mets will have Duaner Sanchez for the 7th inning, Aaron Heilman (7-7, 3.03 ERA, 1 sv in 2007) for the 8th, and then Billy Wagner (2-2, 2.63, 34) closing games in the 9th. The biggest question mark is Sanchez, who missed all of last year after a car accident that left him with an injured shoulder in 2006. Last year, Sanchez never got back into playing shape, but this year, he is reportedly in great shape in spring training. Even more important about Sanchez's situation is that when a starting pitcher goes 7 innings, he will be able to split an 8th inning load with Heilman.

I've mentioned this before - I think Santana errs on the side of caution when it comes to his arm. That could result in a few starts where he goes just six innings. Last year, 13 of his 33 starts lasted just 5 or 6 innings. Couple that with an aging Pedro Martinez* and Orlando Hernandez in the rotation, and the bullpen could see plenty of work.

So the bullpen will be an important factor all season for the Mets (and every other team in baseball). Wagner will close games - there's no doubt about that. My fear is that he will get hurt, and the Mets will be left vulnerable. I expected more injuries from Wagner the past couple of years, and he's stayed surprisingly healthy. He'll be 37 this season...his body is going to break down sometime...hopefully it's not this year. Wagner's biggest contributions this season could very well be with his mouth - he becomes prime suspect number one for speaking his mind (after Carlos Beltran, though, it seems) now that Paul Lo Duca is gone.

For the first time in a number of years, Aaron Heilman hasn't been complaining about his role...it seems, for now, he has given up all hope of becoming a starting pitcher with the Mets...and by coming back this year, he might realize that by not rocking the boat, 2008 is a very real possibility for a world championship.

Besides Sanchez, the other key members of the bullpen are lefty Pedro Feliciano, who was 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA last year. Lefties hit just .168 against him. Scott Schoeneweis will be back, fresh off his appearance in the Mitchell Report - and he had a very disappointing 2007 season (a 5.03 ERA tells the tale). Sidearmer Joe Smith will be a factor at some point this season, but after a great first half of last season (36 IP, 2.75 ERA), he pitched just 8 innings in the second half of the season, and was not effective (6.48 ERA). Jorge Sosa was a pleasant surprise for much of the season, doing good work filling in as a fifth starter, but you don't know what you're getting from him this year. He might be the 2006 Darren Oliver/2007 Aaron Sele long-relief type in 2008. And the Mets signed Matt Wise, late of the Brewers, who is coming off a decent year, but nothing special.

The Mets have some arms in the bullpen, and I think they'll be OK when they have to use their relievers. The example of Joe Smith illustrates, though, what overwork can do - he was a rookie last year, and was overworked in the first half. The Mets paid the price for that in the second half, and Willie Randolph lost confidence in the reliever.

Someone will certainly surprise out of the bullpen this year, and someone will certainly disappoint. It's the same story every year. What the Mets need is consistency from the trio of Sanchez, Heilman, and Wagner. If the Mets can get leads to those guys, and they pitch like they did two years ago, the bullpen will be a strength, and not such a question mark.

ONE-TRACK MIND

Honest to goodness, when it gets this close to baseball season I have a one track mind. I'm able to shift my focus to schoolwork during the school day...but almost every other second it's "MetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMets." Really, it is. I even talk to The Baby about the Mets, like she gives a hoot. But that's the reason I created this here blog - so I can spare the ones I love with these types of verbal assaults. So here's what's on my mind right now:

-Jose Reyes, aka THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED - I keep forgetting to mention this, but I need to change my NL MVP vote from last week in my season predictions. I have to go with Reyes. The guy is getting all sorts of national recognition now, and people know how valuable he is to the Mets. If he stays healthy and has another year like he did last year, and the Mets need him more this year than last year, because it will be a tighter race...Jose Reyes will be the NL MVP. (I had said Ryan Howard, which isn't a bad thought, but Reyes might get it this year.)

-Duaner Sanchez - Sanchez's comeback from last season's shoulder injury, suffered in an off-hours taxicab accident in Miami, took a big hit. Sanchez might not be back now until August, after feeling/hearing a pop in his shoulder while pitching the other day. I would not expect Sanchez to be effective this year. Also, I get the feeling this might be very, very serious, and possible career-ending...or at least, ending Sanchez's career with the Mets. He's in Willie Randolph's doghouse, after reporting overweight, and this injury just keeps getting worse, it seems.

- Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins - The other day I mentioned that both of the former Padres, who the Mets got in exchange for Royce Ring and Heath Bell, could open the season in the minors. Well, Adkins has no options, so he might be dealt before the season opens. Johnson might get the chance to start the season on the Mets roster because of an injury to......

-Lastings Milledge - he hurt his hand the other day, and it's still causing him pain, so he might not be with the Mets come Sunday night. Too bad, because he worked hard this spring and deserved to break camp with the team. But Ben Johnson might keep his roster spot warm (which was only keeping Mike Pelfrey's roster spot warm until the Mets needed their fifth starter).

-Scott Schoenweis - The last thing that I spend some time thinking about during the day is the Mets' newest reliever. I always liked watching Schoenweis pitch with the Angels...although his numbers haven't been the greatest...I look forward to seeing him contribute with the Mets.

TRADE DEADLINE

Couldn't let the deadline pass without a quick comment. I'm still not sure if the Mets have Scott Linebrink - ESPNEWS is a little vague on this. One guy kept mentioning that the Mets swung Oliver Perez to the Padres for Linebrink....the rest of the station keeps saying only that the Mets traded Xavier Nady to the Pirates for Perez and Roberto Hernandez.

If the Met have Hernandez and Linebrink, that's a good deal. I'd say it makes their bullpen a lot better, but then there's this Duaner Sanchez situation...which sets the Mets way back. The only thing that makes me hesitate is that if the Mets think they're getting last year's Roberto Hernandez, I don't think they are. There's the chance he wasn't as good in Pittsburgh because they aren't competing, and he'll be in good shape back in a pennant race. But I watched him pitch a little this year, and he didn't look as good. I admit I don't know much about Linebrink, but a lot of teams wanted him, so I guess it's good the Mets got him.

This Sanchez story makes my mouth hurt (although, that could be the oral sugery). Apparently he was in a cab in Miami, there was a car accident, he suffered a separated shoulder, and is out for the rest of the season. That's awful. He was THE number one surprise for the Mets this year, not knowing what the Mets were getting from LA for Jae Seo - and he's been nothing short of awesome. The Mets can only hope Linebrink and/or Hernandez come close to filling the hole he'll be leaving.

Also, I am shocked the Mets traded Nady. Really. I though for at least the next five years the Mets outfield would be Lastings Milledge in left, Carlos Beltran in center, and Nady in right. Either the Mets are liking what they're seeing from Victor Diaz, and want him there, or they have long-term plans for Endy Chavez (he's 28). I'm really surprised - I didn't think Nady was going anywhere. I had read recently he was a little miffed about Chavez getting so much playing time, but that he was going to get some at-bats coming up against a bunch of lefties. I wonder what else there is to this story.



MAGIC NUMBER: It's 45 now, thanks to the Marlins win over the Phillies on Monday afternoon.

Also Monday afternoon:

CHASE'S CHASE: The hit streak is at 32 games. That's exciting.

I'll definitely be OK to write Tuesday night. I need some rest though.

P.S. Oral surgery sucks.

THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED

Mets 7, Blue Jays 4 (NYM: 47-28, TOR: 41-34)

I was actually looking forward to this Mets-Blue Jays series. I was thinking it would be some great baseball, and I was looking forward to watching some of it. I saw none of it, other than highlights. Friday night, I went out to celebrate the last day of school, so I didn't catch that game...a Mets win, 6-1. Saturday, the game was blacked out here because of the Red Sox' national telecast on FOX, but it's just as well - the Blue Jays won that one 7-4. Rough start for El Duque. Sunday, it was all Mets (apparently)...an early Sunday start - 12:00 - Jose Reyes set the tone a little after noon, and the Mets followed suit.

Reyes led off the game with a home run, his eighth of the year, he went 4-for-5, and stole his 34th base. Reyes is on a 32-for-57 tear, raising his average from .246 all the way to .302. This is the third time in five games Reyes has had a 4-hit game, and the second straight. He's on a 13-game hitting streak, and one of those games - the first of the 4-hit games - Reyes hit for the cycle.

Steve Trachsel had a good (not great) outing, giving up 4 ER in 5 innings, with 6 hits, and 3 walks. He won his fourth straight decision. Billy Wagner did the ol' walk-the-tightrope in the 9th, giving up 2 walks, but he did close it out for the save.

Carlos Beltran* hit his 20th homer of the season, and Jose Valentin added a solo shot. I'm very happy with the Mets taking two out of three against Toronto - they're a very good team. The Mets are one win from 16 in the month of June - hopefully they'll get a few wins this week. Next up is the big Red Sox- Mets series, at Fenway Park. I'll be at the game Tuesday night - should be Alay Soler against Jon Lester.

PEDRO*: I was wrong on one of my early-season predictions - it doesn't look like Pedro Martinez* will back out of a start in Boston. I was surprised how little the Boston media talked about Pedro* coming back...it only really started the past couple of days up here. But Pedro* is really playing it up in the papers that he expects a nice welcome when he takes the mound at Fenway. So I guess that's his angle - if he's going to start here, he'd better make the fans out to be idiots if they boo him. And really, he's right. It should be a good series.

2 PIECES OF MAIL: These have been sitting in the mailbox since Thursday and Friday - about time I got to them:

"Dear JohnnyMets,

While the Red Sox were playing the Nationals this week, I heard the Boston broadcasters talking about how Alfonso Soriano could become trade bait as the July 31 trading deadline approaches. So what do you think -- is there room for a $10 million error machine in the infield of the 2006 World Series Champion New York Mets?

Signed,
Dave"

Dave - The Alfonso Soriano thing is interesting. First of all, I think he'll be traded - and I think he might just be the biggest name that gets traded at the deadline (I don't think John Smoltz will end up going anywhere). I do not, however, think the Mets will be players. While they do have a hole of sorts at second base (Jose Valentin is filling the gap quite nicely, and Chris Woodward will be seeing time there), I think that hole will be filled by Anderson Hernandez or Jeff Keppinger, making a mostly homegrown infield in the coming years. The Mets just got rid of a big-contract block at second base, preventing the infusion of youth at the position - I don't think they'll get involved with Soriano and create that type of situation again (albeit, a productive big-contract guy, instead of Kaz Matsui). The other interesting thing about Soriano is that he's increased his value a little bit because he has played pretty well in the outfield. While he wants to play second base at heart, a team could probably get away with acquiring him and using him in the outfield for the rest of this season. Makes you wonder if a deal back to the Bronx is possible, with the outfield holes the Yankees have right now.

Also, this e-mail:

"Johnnymets -

I cannot be happier with the play of our National League leading NY Mets. However, I am very concerned about Wagner. He is being paid millions to get 3 outs a game, and not even in every game, yet he is not living up to his big pay check. What happens down the stretch, or more importantly, in the World Series? Do we give Sanchez a shot if Wagner continues to get in trouble and can't find the plate? Let me know what you think.

Steve from Queens"

Steve - you bring up Sanchez, which I forgot to mention - he pitched on Friday night, and threw just two pitches before leaving with a pinched nerve in his neck. He's listed as day-to-day - but he's been so effective, it was unsettling to see him get hurt. Hopefully he'll come back feeling fine. That said, as good as Sanchez has been - there's no way the job's going to be taken away from Wagner. I've said this before, I think that finger thing that bothered Wagner during spring training is still bothering him. There's no other reason I could think of, besides the Mets uniform, as to why Wagner is so ineffective. I really thought he was the type of guy who blows a couple of saves early, then is consistent the rest of the year. He has not been consistent at all so far this year. But he's the guy who's going to get the ball at the end of games. Hopefully he'll come through in the clutch for the Mets through the post-season. (P.S. - you know the Mets are doing good when Steve from Queens 'couldn't be happier' with their play...those of you who read often know he's about as negative as Mets fans come.)

BOOF: It's been a while since a Boof Bonser update - but he pitched 6 shutout innings against the Cubs on Saturday, outdueling Mark Prior. Thought that was worth mentioning. Boof's ERA is still up there - about 4.68, but he's contributing to a very hot Twins team right now, and I bet he has a spot in their rotation for a while to come. The win was his second big-league win, so he's now 2-1.

**I'm having some trouble putting pictures on here...might be related to the recent spate of computer troubles we've had here....hope I can get that working again soon. Just wanted to let you know about the lack of pics lately.****

THE KID'S KIDS: What with all the end-of-the-school-year commotion, I stopped paying much attention to the St. Lucie Mets and the entire Florida State League season. It's broken up into two halves, which I'm not sure I realized (I think last year's Gulf Coast League was done the same way), and the Mets needed to win on Wednesday to clinch the first half title. They did, beating Brevard County, 5-2, finishing the first half 40-30. "I told the players before the game that our destiny was in our own hands," said St. Lucie manager Gary Carter, who didn't know the Cardinals' result during his team's game. "I'm not going to take any credit [for the title]. It was the kids, we can only motivate them. We try to pound into their heads good, sound, fundamental baseball."

You'll remember that the Kid's Kids in Rookie League qualified for the post-season last year as well. The Kid is going places. He'll also be managing the U.S. squad in the Futures Game, the All-Star Game for the best of the minor leagues, in a World vs. U.S. format. It takes place the Sunday before the Major League All-Star Game, in Pittsburgh's PNC Park, the site of this year's All-Star Game. So on Wednesday, Hall of Famer Gary Carter was on ESPNEWS' "The Hot List" with Brian Kenney to talk about that, and other things. Carter still loves to hear himself talk. There's no such thing as a short answer with him....and his goal now is to manage a Major League team, and take them to a World Series championship. Of course, I'll root for him...but it depends on the Mets' situation when he ends up taking over a team. Obviously, with Willie Randolph's success, he's not going anywhere for a long time, and with Gary Carter's minor-league success, he's going places fast. So he won't be managing the Mets. I can only hope it's a team whose success doesn't effect the Mets.

On Sunday, the St. Lucie Mets were winning 8-1 in the sixth when I decided to post this, so let's assume they go on to win, shall we? That makes the Mets 3-1 on the young second half of the season.

FANTASY UPDATE: I'm getting my rear end kicked lately, so it's not worth mentioning how the What If Mets are doing in the season's final week. But for the sake of the Southern Bureau, we'll update the What If Nationals (also with a catcher named Gary Carter, so that's a bonus), who are about to wrap up the Wild Card - a 4-game lead with 4 to play....coincidentally, all against me. I was actually considering starting Dwight Gooden every game down the stretch, to see how awesome his numbers would come out to be, but I won't do that now against Washington, lest I win all four. I'm rooting for you, Nationals!

It's a shame this season is just ending when school ends, when I could actually devote a little time to it....but then again, it wouldn't make a lick of difference if I did devote some time to it, anyway.

BEAT THE STREAK: I may have partied a little too hard after the final day of school, so Saturday I forgot to make a Beat the Streak pick, so I had to start all over on Sunday. I took Jose Reyes, and he's got me started on another streak. Monday, I'll go with Bobby Abreu against the knuckleball of Tim Wakefield (if he still starts Monday...I think he will).