WHEN LAST WE MET...

There was one thing about the 2006 season that made the Mets' loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS somewhat unsurprising.

No less disappointing...but almost as though, in retrospect, you could see 'it' coming.

The 'it', though, would have been a loss to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, rather than an NLCS Game 7 loss to the Cardinals.

And the 'it' was the fact that the Mets were beatable...nowhere more on display than during their interleague series with the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

That was the last time the Mets were at Fenway, and of course, all things considered, the season was pretty successful after the Mets were swept in an ugly three-game series in Boston. (Relatively, successful, when compared with 2007 and 2008, I guess.)

The Mets' struggles were personified in that series by Lastings Milledge, who looked lost in left field, clueless as to how to play the Green Monster.

I was at the first of those three games, and looking back, I had forgotten that it was started by Alay Soler. So the Mets' starting pitching is somewhat comparable to those days...although, I guess Livan Hernandez is a better bet than Soler.

But the point is that the past two days have been encouraging. It shows that the Mets can hang with the big boys...and the fact that they're doing it undermanned is even more encouraging.

The Mets won with Johan Santana on the mound Friday night...you hope that happens each time he takes the mound. Mike Pelfrey was in his top form on Saturday, and you hope he looks like that if the Mets are fortunate to make it into October...I'll take 2 first inning runs if he settles down like he did on Saturday - that's how he was when he was at his best beginning last July and lasting for the rest of the season. But all of what has happened so far has been without Jose Reyes or Carlos Delgado in the lineup, without Carlos Beltran in center field (he's been DH), and with the likes of Omir Santos making huge contributions.

And today features Tim Redding against Tim Wakefield. Wakefield has been strong so far this season, but the knuckleball is always dicey, so he could be hittable, and anything positive the Mets get out of Redding is huge.

But even more huge would be a sweep in Boston. It'll wipe the struggles in Los Angeles right from the slate...and give these Mets something that the 2006 team didn't have - the confidence they can hang with the best.

RANDOM STAT: I've been holding onto this one, hoping it continues...but running my baseball pool allows me to keep track of random things - like the fact that until yesterday, Detroit hadn't lost on a Saturday or Sunday all season. I'm sad that ended yesterday....but they're still 12-1 on Saturdays and Sundays.

CHECKING IN WITH THE DUCKS
It's been a while since we checked in with Hall of Famer Gary Carter's Long Island Ducks:

The Ducks have lost 7 of their last 10, and stand at 14-13, 2-and-a-half games behind Southern Maryland, in third place in their division. Some guy named Ray Navarrette, who plays third base, leads the team with 6 homers and 19 RBI. He also leads the team with 7 errors, but I guess with how he's been hitting, you keep him in the lineup.

We'll keep you posted.

RANDOM PREDICTION: AL CENTRAL

The American League Central will be the most competitive division in baseball in 2009.

Let's break this down - in the AL East, the Orioles and Blue Jays will be below .500. In the AL West, Seattle is terrible. In the NL East, the Nationals will be bad, the NL Central has the Pirates and Astros, and the NL West is the worst division in baseball.

Bringing us back to the AL Central:

The Twins barely missed the playoffs, losing a one-game playoff to the White Sox, who enter the season as defending division champs. The Indians are now two seasons removed from their disappointing ending to the 2007 season and can't be counted out as a threat. This is the year the Royals get back above .500. And then you have the Tigers, who have to be chomping at the bit to avenge last year's disaster of a season.

I think, if it's mathematically possible, you have 5 teams right there that play better than .500 ball all year...making the AL Central the most competitve division in baseball in 2009.

For the sake of argument, here's my order of divisions in terms of competitiveness:

1) AL Central
2) NL East
3) NL West (the Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rockies really all could win the division)
4) AL East (a very good 3-team race)
5) NL Central (a bunch of teams have a chance, but none are all that good...that's right, Cubs. Win a playoff game sometime then we'll talk)
6) AL West (the Angels comfortably win this division...maybe even the American League)

EARLY ASSESSMENTS

I think I've figured out a way to while away the off-days. This might become a regular feature - I might give an update on these topics, in regard to the Mets and baseball in general, every two weeks or so. Since I just thought of it, no graphics today...but I'll try to dress it up in the future:

THE METS

Most Impressive: The reason I wanted to give an assessment, two weeks into the season, is because of Ryan Church's arm. That's by far been the most impressive thing about the Mets so far (slim pickings after the underwhelming 5-6 start). I could have mentioned Church for a number of reasons - he's hitting, period...but he's also hitting lefties - but teams have already stopped taking the extra base and challenging him in right field.

Least Impressive: Jose Reyes has had an awful start. He's just hitting .205, with a .238 OBP, and tack on a hamstring injury, to boot. He should be back playing soon, and I guess I'd rather he slump now than in September, but with the way he finished last year, Reyes needs to start playing better soon.

Biggest Surprise: I'd be lying if I said I expected this kind of start from Angel Pagan. Pagan leads the team with a .385 batting average, and is tied for the team lead with 10 RBI. I thought he might be a good addition to the bench when the Mets acquired him in the off-season, but now that he's the regular left fielder (in for the injured Moises Alou), he's been so good it raises the question - what will the Mets do when Alou comes back? I can't decide if I'd rather see them keep playing Pagan, or turn around and trade him while his value is sky-high and get some bullpen help in return (and while I have a limited attachment to him).

Biggest Disappointment: Pedro Martinez*'s injury is the biggest disappointment so far. I expected him to have some sort of injury mid-year, and miss a little bit of time, but to get hurt the way he did, so early in the year, it was a huge disappointment. It will only be OK if Martinez* returns relatively soon (on the timetable they set), and is healthy and effective straight through the post-season.

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

Most Impressive: Are you aware of what Brian Bannister has been doing for Kansas City? (There are actually a few Royals starters putting up some great numbers, but I like Bannister, so I'll focus on him.) Bannister is 3-0, with a 0.86 ERA. In 21 innings, he's struck out 13 and given up just 10 hits, while walking 5 against Detroit, the Yankees, and Minnesota. It's not surprising, based on what he did all of last year, but it sure is impressive.

Least Impressive: C.C. Sabathia has been terrible. He's 0-2 in three starts, with an 11.57 ERA. 13 K's and 9 walks in 14 innings - and he's given up 24 hits. (He's given up four more earned runs than he's had innings pitched.) I could have also gone with Andruw Jones here, too - but he had a bad season last year, so he hasn't impressed me in a long while.

Biggest Surprise: How about the hot start by the Florida Marlins, and though they've cooled lately, the Kansas City Royals (both are 7-5). Neither one will last, but it certainly surprises me that the team leading the NL East this deep into the season would be the Marlins. (The Pirates are also 6-6 - .500 would be a big deal for them.)

Biggest Disappointment: By far it's the Detroit Tigers. What a bust. They're not going to recover - I'm making that bold prediction right now, with them standing at 2-10. Don't you feel like we should have seen this coming? I kind of do.

I realize I must be missing a team or someone somewhere. I also realize that these categories are sort of close (is there much of a difference between "least impressive" and "biggest disappointment"? In my mind right now there is a subtle difference, but I may feel differently in two weeks.). I'll re-evaluate over the next couple of weeks. In the meantime, put your thoughts, if you have any differing ones, or even if you agree, in the comments.

PREVIEW: AL CENTRAL

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the American League Central.

I guess I'm sold on Detroit. But I'm not 100% sure. They look great on paper. But so did the 1993 Mets. And I think with these Tigers, there's some potential for clubhouse explosions - between Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, and Kenny Rogers, someone's going to get a black eye. But I think the big difference between those star-studded Mets failures and this team is Jim Leyland - he won't take crap from the players, and he probably won't have to. One big thing to realize about Detroit is there's this strange Florida Marlins connection:

1) Jim Leyland managed the Marlins to their first world championship in 1997.
2) On that team was current Tigers DH Gary Sheffield.
3) The Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins this off-season. Both players were on the 2003 championship team.
4) The catcher on that Marlins team was Ivan Rodriguez....starting catcher for the 2008 Detroit Tigers. (Also, that 2003 Marlins team began the year with Jeff Torborg as their manager. Torborg also managed the 1993 Mets. Whoa. Spooky.)

I don't think the Tigers will go all the way in the American League playoffs. (Who will beat them? - find out next week when I publish my playoff picks!) But I do think they'll be good enough and veteran enough to win what might shape up to be a tough division.

Why is it such a tough division? Well, the Indians have that year of experience, as a young team, of having gotten to within one game of the World Series (three times). And they have that bitter taste in their mouth after blowing the 3-games-to-1 lead to Boston. And they still have a very, very good pitching staff.

The White Sox are strange. I think they'll get back to being good - but they really fell off the pace last year. They went from world champs to 90 wins to 72 wins over three seasons - you have to think last year was the aberration. They managed to keep Mark Buerhle, and that was important - would he have stuck around if he didn't see potential? They're not going to threaten the Tigers, but they'll finish with a better-than-.500 record and win some important games.

I always want to pick Kansas City to finish better than they do. And I do think they're on an upswing. I think this will be a breakthrough year for them - a year where they don't finish in last place, but more importantly, a year they build on. The last time they didn't finish in last place was the year they won 83 games....then lost 100+ for three straight seasons. I like rooting for Kansas City, and they're one of those teams like the Reds, which I wrote about yesterday - I keep expecting them to pull out one of those miraculous turnarounds and surprise everyone. Maybe this year.

And then the Twins. 2008 is a year for the Twins to find out what they have in 2009. Francisco Liriano needs to come back healthy and dominant. Carlos Gomez needs to show that he was worth being the centerpiece of the Johan Santana deal (I think he'll be exciting for Twins fans to watch). And then the Twins need to figure out what else they have so they can gear up for the following year - because I think this will be a year of mourning in Minnesota:

GOOD BYE

Sad times in Jets land when we can break out that time-honored joke that we all love: At least the Jets couldn't lose this week! They had a bye!! I think I broke that one out in the 4th grade - hasn't failed me since.

It's also sad for me to go through all of these old postings, as I move the Jets site to its new permanent home here (more on the changes here below). The Jets have had a really good recent history, and it's all falling apart this year. I can't stand the losing...I really can't. I wish I could go back and live through the 2004 playoffs again...and maybe, if the outcome was the same, kill Doug Brien. Those were such good times as a Jets fan - even last year was exciting each week. The sad thing is, as a Jets fan, the good times don't even end in a Super Bowl win - they usually end in playoff losses.

FANTASY TEAM TAKES A HIT, TOO
The one redeeming factor this year for my football season was the rebirth of my fantasy football team, which after an 0-3 start was sitting at 5-4 this week. I'm in the midst of a loss, so that hurts, but even worse is what I had found in Adrian Peterson (a possible new LaDainian Tomlinson?) I have now lost for a few weeks to injury. That's a big blow to my fantasy team's playoff hopes.

ON BASEBALL
The Tigers dealt Omar Infante to the Cubs for Jacque Jones, making the Tigers a possible frontrunner for the 2008 American League championship in my new prediction strategy...they are possibly going to play the Cubs or the Braves now in the World Series. I don't even know if the moves they made are quality (they seem pretty good), but the fact that they've been involved in deals with two National League teams makes them a front-runner in my eyes.

NEW LOOK
I have again changed the look of the blog - I'm looking for something pretty permanent so I don't have to keep doing this. I went with a couple of different things - I am hoping the black background looks sharp, and the different colors show a melding of the Mets and Jets. I've also changed the title to be all-inclusive, because this is no longer a Mets-only blog. It refers to where I live in relation to New York City, and specifically, the Mets' new ballpark. (I know, technically it's only about 188 miles, but 200 is catchier.) I welcome your feedback, and Southern Bureau, consider this your notification - please let me know what you think.

(Update: Just took my first look at the site as a reader - I'm not crazy about the black background. Please let me know if you think you have a better idea....maybe I'll just go back to white.)

CARDS' SUPPAN IS ACE OF DIAMOND

Cardinals 5, Mets 0 (STL leads NLCS, 2 games to 1)


Stadium organists. Stadium vendors. Sports bar owners. Opposing hitters. They all must love Steve Trachsel. The first three because he takes so long between pitches that they can all make careers out of his starts. The fourth group because he is awful.

Early on in the year, Trachsel wondered why he wasn't getting more respect from Willie Randolph, and why he's been treated the way he has - starting behind rookies, being passed over for playoff starts by the likes of John Maine. This is why, Steve. This is why. You lucked out all season with some outstanding run support, and the Mets hitters made you look so much better than you are. Now, when it counts, you didn't even give them a chance.

1+ inning. Not even 2. Not even an out in the second inning! And I'll tell you what - Randolph left you in too long. Trachsel should have been gone before the ground ball off his leg. Darren Oliver should have been brought in before the bases were loaded. Trachsel should take a lesson from Oliver - you bring your 'A' game to the post-season. (Although Oliver has had his 'A' game all season.) P.S. - I'm pretty sure Trachsel hurt his mouth biting his glove as he was being pulled from the game - he covered his mouth as though he hurt it walking off the field.

The problem here is the Mets kind of need Trachsel. They might be able to slide through the rest of the NLCS without using him again (if they win a couple more games), but if they make it to the World Series, unless El Duque comes back, they're going to need another starter - and Trachsel is it.

The Mets now need Oliver Perez to come through in their biggest game of the year - a year in which they haven't had many - if any - back-to-the-wall type games like they will in Game 4 Sunday night. The good news is that Perez faces the Cardinals' Anthony Reyes, who is untested in the playoffs himself, and might be just what the Mets bats need to wake them up.

As for Game 3, even the good went bad for the Mets. The Mets had a chance to set the tone early - in the first inning, Trachsel picked off David Eckstein (and though he wasn't called for the balk - it looked like he did balk), and that had the potential to be a huge momentum swing. Instead, Trachsel went on to give up 2 runs.

The Mets bats were silenced by Jeff Suppan, and as well as he pitched, I'm sure the early deficit sucked some of the wind out of the Mets' sails. That, coupled with the fact they were coming off a tough loss and a very late night of travel.

Trachsel left with the bases loaded, no out in the second, and Darren Oliver pitched six outstanding innings, after a wild pitch and a groundout resulted in the final St. Louis runs. The bullpen kept the Mets in the game, but (I can't believe I'm about to write this) Jeff Suppan was too much for them.

I praised him after Game 2 - but I'm starting to wonder about Shawn Green's decision-making in right field. Nothing has come of it, but I noticed two very odd things in the past couple of games. He seems to be throwing to the wrong place, missing cutoff men, and in general making bad decisions. The one that comes to mind in Game 3 is after Scott Speizio's triple (I don't fault him for missing the ball on the dive) Green threw the ball home, trying to get Pujols, when it didn't look like he had a play, and the throw allowed Speizio to go to third. (Speizio ended up stranded.) In the 9th inning of Game 2, he came up like he was going to throw home, where it looked like he had a play after a single into right, and didn't throw the ball. (Nothing came of that either.) Not sure what's going on there - I just hope it doesn't hurt the Mets at some point this post-season.

Endy Chavez continues to impress, and make you scratch your head about the Cliff Floyd roster spot. He nearly ran down Suppan's home run (oh, by the way Trachsel - a homer to Suppan!?!??! Really?), when he was playing very shallow, and nearly robbed it. He's a great outfielder - I hope he's the Mets' starting rightfielder next year.

The Cardinals' defense, meanwhile, was flawless. David Wright has yet to get a hit in the NLCS, but he was robbed a couple of times by Scott Rolen after hitting the ball hard. Rolen made a couple of defensive gems, and David Eckstein killed a possible Mets rally in the eighth inning, robbing Endy Chavez of a hit by diving to his right, then getting a force at second. Preston Wilson also gunned down Jose Valentin at second base, as he tried to stretch a single into a double.

After Game 2 I called on Steve Trachsel to lighten the load for the bullpen. It's funny (not really) that the bullpen ended up lightening the bullpen's load. Darren Oliver's outing may have been in vain in Game 3, but it could end up strengthening the bullpen in the long run. Because of Oliver, Randolph only had to use Roberto Hernandez for one inning, and had the chance to rest everyone else. The bullpen use shouldn't be an issue the rest of the series - unless Oliver Perez's outing is a disaster.

A couple of final things:

• I'm not sure if it was the FOX sound or what, but for "the greatest baseball fans in the world", the St. Louis crowd seemed awfully quiet all game. Am I the only one?
• The Mets being on the road shouldn't be an issue. Remember that in the first week of June, the Mets put together a 9-1 road trip in LA, Arizona, and Philadelphia that put them on the fast track to a dominant season. They are capable of going on a run on the road - and the most important thing for them that road trip is what will be important for them in Games 4 and 5 - getting a run in the first inning and jumping out to early leads.
• Finally, I have this sick feeling right now watching the Mets be pretty much dominated the past 11 or 12 innings. I hope the Mets have that same feeling, and go out there angry on Sunday night. Maybe they won't need a dominant outing by Perez, because they'll put up 10 runs. That's what I want.

ALCS: I should mention that the Tigers won earlier on Saturday, in dramatic fashion, advancing to the World Series. They could be waiting a very long time for their opponent. I have to say, it seems a lot different for the Tigers to be waiting all this time for a World Series opponent, than, say, the Mets after the Dodgers series. The Tigers are hot right now. The only benefit to a layoff like this is that they might get Sean Casey healthy. Other than that, it's only liable to cool off their hot pitching. If I'm a fan of the National League team who is going to face them (please, please, please be the Mets), I'm feeling OK about Detroit having a long layoff.

**FINAL, FINAL THING: I just saw David Wright's post-game comments. First of all, he was ornery - about as ornery as David Wright will get, anyway. And I like that - take that into Sunday's game. Secondly, he said it's not the end of the world - the Mets are only down 2-1. And he said no one is panicking. That's all good news. So hopefully Sunday night's posting is a recap of a win.

NOW WE'RE WAITING FOR THURSDAY

Rain has postponed Game 1 of the NLCS. The postponement can really wreak some havoc on the National League teams' rotations - especially the Mets, considering they only have a few starters who give them a legitimate chance to win. The rain probably benefits the Cardinals, who can now line up their starters in a fashion more to their liking.

But the rainout pales in comparison to the other news out of New York, which has Mets ties, but is also just a horrible, horrible thing. Cory Lidle, late of the Yankees, was killed when the plane he was piloting crashed into a building in New York City. Lidle began his career with the Mets, back in 1997, and I really thought he pitched in New York longer than that, but he was selected in the expansion draft by the Diamondbacks the following year, sat out with an injury, resurfaced with Tampa Bay, then pitched in Oakland, Toronto, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and with the Yankees. Lidle's numbers with the Mets were very good in 1997: 54 appearances, 81 and 2-thirds innings pitched, a 3.53 ERA, 7-2 record, and 2 saves.

The weird thing about this is that I was watching the coverage, and all of the facts were falling into place, and whenever an event like this happens I just think to myself, "I can't wait until all the facts are in and the speculation stops, and we find out exactly what happened." Well, eventually all the facts sorted themselves out, and it was very surreal to hear Cory Lidle's name involved. I feel awful for his wife and son. And anyone else affiliated with his loss.

It makes me wonder exactly what it must have been like when Roberto Clemente died. This is tragic, and it's Cory Lidle, a decent pitcher, but not a great baseball player. Clemente was a national - international - icon. I just finished reading David Maraniss' biography Clemente: The Passion and Grace of Baseball's Last Hero. It was excellent, but of course, Clemente's story happened before I was even born. It must have just been heartbreaking for a guy like Clemente to die so young (as it is with Lidle). The most amazing thing about Clemente in the book was that he had all these premonitions that he was going to die young, and possibly in a plane crash. Very eerie. Anyway, it's a good book - I recommend it.

I don't think Major League Baseball was wrong to continue with the League Championship Series Wednesday night (the Mets and Cardinals would have played if the weather had allowed). I think it would have been more appropriate to honor Lidle with a moment of silence/tribute before the game than to cancel the games. I'm actually not sure what they did in Oakland - I missed the very beginning of that game.

ALCS: The Tigers just beat the A's to take a 2-0 series lead. I'm glad they're sitting pretty, heading home, because I hope the Mets play them in the World Series, so I get another new matchup out of the way. But I have to say I'm surprised that they are doing so well. I wrote many times this year about how I didn't think they were for real because they were beating up on the weak AL teams, and not doing so well against the AL contenders. Well, I guess they're for real now.

STREAKS: On the FOX pre-game show, they had a graphic showing that the Tigers had the worst 50-game stretch heading into the post-season in history - I think it was something like 19-31. Right behind them was the second-worst stretch - the Cardinals, with something like 21 or 22 wins. I knew the Cardinals were having a historically awful year for a first-place team - just didn't know how awful. Hopefully they don't hit their stride like the Tigers have started to do.

One last thing about the Mets - I'll predict they win in 5....6 at most. And as for the Mets' struggles in the final couple of weeks of the season - I really think it was because they had everything sewn up already, and didn't have much to play for. I think now, as seen in the Dodgers series, they're back to the old Mets of April-August. And I think that's what we'll be seeing for the remainder of October.

I'll have a post-Game 1 wrap late Thursday night.

Mets 6, Tigers 1 (34-34, 2.5 GB)

Sunday, June 20, 2004

I don't want to make too big a deal out of this, and I don't want to get everyone too excited, and I don't want to exaggerate, but Jose Reyes is the GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED. Seriously. The facts back me up on this. You may remember how well the Mets played last year when he was in the lineup, before he got hurt, and now this year, the Mets are undefeated with Reyes in the lineup, and he has scored a run in every game in which he has played.

OK, OK. It's only been two games. And I didn't even get to watch them. But they've definitely been the most exciting of the season so far. This is the lineup we've been waiting to see. And the bonus is the Mets won the last two games they played before Reyes came back, so now it's a 4-game winning streak, they're back to .500, and they're just two and a half games out of first. (The Phillies and the Marlins are tied atop the NL East, with Philadelphia ahead by percentage points.) Reyes is hitting just .125 after an 0-for-3 yesterday, but he needs some time to get his act together. He's making stuff happen without even hitting - imagine when he starts to get some hits!

I also forgot to mention that the Marlins pretty much handed over the NL East to the Mets in a widely under-reported move last week, by trading for Billy Koch. There is no way this guy is going to make your team better. The reason I remembered to write this today is because this morning Billy Koch is 0-1 as a National Leaguer, with an ERA of 9.00, after taking the loss for Florida yesterday. I just wish I had remembered to mention how bad Billy Koch is last week after the trade had happened, instead of after he already started pitching poorly for Florida. Oh well. Talk about a couple of headcases in Florida - Koch and Benitez. Who's going to bail the other out when one of them loses their mind? That's a tall order. Now if we could just find a headcase for the Phillies to get...wonder where John Rocker is these days?

Mike Cameron is officially out of his slump. From here on out we ignore the batting average and just look at his production. Now we have to worry about Jason Phillips. Let it be noted that Ty Wigginton is now up to .270 in the batting average department - proof that if Phillips gets hot for a few weeks he can pull his BA up too.

WRIGHT WATCH: Catching you up on David Wright's weekend with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides - on Friday and Saturday, Wright went a combined 0-8, striking out three times. And just when you start to think, hmm...maybe they've figured out how to pitch to him, he breaks out a 2-4 performance Sunday against the Pawtucket Red Sox, with a homer, double, and 2 RBI. Wright's hitting .346. Now, it must be noted that the homer came off former Yankee Ramiro Mendoza, who has struggled since the Red Sox acquired him before last year. And as Dave Shaw said, "I can homer off Ramiro Mendoza." If you don't know who Dave Shaw is, that just proves the point.
I didn't realize until this morning that the Tides are in Pawtucket, R.I. today and tomorrow. I wish I had known sooner, having already made plans. But there's an outside chance I will change them to get an in-person look at David Wright and the rest of the Triple-Aers.

Also, FYI, Aaron Heilman finally got a win yesterday for the Tides - his first minor league win in over a year. His last win (in the minors) was May 26, 2003, also against Pawtucket. Anyway, Heilman is now 1-7. Not good.