SLOWLY DEVELOPING

Do you feel, like I do, that things are slow to develop this baseball season?

I understand that it's only two weeks in, but I don't feel like we know very much after seeing two weeks of ballgames played.

The Mets are an example...two full weeks into the season, and they're .500. Perhaps it's indicative of how they'll be all season, and in 23 weeks they'll be sitting at 81-81 (though I doubt it). I wish they had jumped out of the gate, a la the Marlins, and set a tone. But that just doesn't seem to be the way this year is going to go. And not just with the Mets.

Some pitchers' performances this year have been out-of-character. For every Johan Santana or Zack Greinke, there is a Cole Hamels or Tim Lincecum. I don't mind hitters being slow the first couple of weeks, but pitchers are supposed to be ahead of the batters at this point, and I feel like we're not seeing that much.

Perhaps it's too much of a 'fantasy baseball' view on the sport, because with many of these players I focus on their stats for fantasy reasons, and what I thought would be a good fantasy team is having a terrible start...but I feel like it's an overall trend to start 2009.

Speaking of trends...I think now's a good time to stop and look at the starts of 2009 and figure out what's legit and who will fade:

FOR REAL:

-You read it here first, the Florida Marlins will be a threat all year long. This 11-2 start is no fluke - they have the pitching to hang in the East and in the National League Wild Card races all season.

-Speaking of pitching, the Kansas City Royals have it too. Gil Meche and Zack Greinke shut down the high-powered Texas Rangers offense last weekend. Their 7-5 start is pretty legit - I stand by my pre-season prediction of a better-than-.500 record for K.C. this year. Greinke, by the way, hasn't given up a run in 20+ innings so far this year (he has a 34-inning scoreless streak dating back to last season).

NOT FOR REAL:

-The San Diego Padres will fade. It may be sooner, it may be much later in the season (my prediction is early July), but they are not as good as their 9-4 start might lead you to believe. I do love that they got off to such a good start after everyone predicted them to be the worst team in baseball (a bold prediction in a league in which the Nationals exist), but I think they'll sink towards the bottom of the National League fairly soon. (I'm not even going to waste a paragraph going into how "For Real" Washington's 2-10 start is...the Mets have no excuse losing to them at all this year.)

-Baltimore has already begun their fade from the top of the AL East, and Toronto will follow soon after. They're 10-4, and good for them...but too many injuries to an already-thin pitching staff has them playing with smoke and mirrors (and Roy Halladay) right now. Likewise, the Rays' basement-dwelling days, with their 5-8 start, are bound to end soon.

And I just hope everything normalizes pretty soon...because I'm feeling right now like this is shaping up to be a very abnormal baseball season.

ANALYSIS THROUGH FOURTEEN WEEKS

MOST IMPRESSIVE: Brace yourself - I'm about to sing the praises of Jose Reyes. I mentioned this the other day - statistically speaking, he's the most important player on this team. I'll break it down further next week (SNY showed a stat about Reyes' numbers in Mets' wins and in losses, which I'll try to re-create), but for now I'll say this: Reyes got his average up over .300 in Monday night's game. He was hitting around .250 in mid-May. It's no coincidence that the Mets have gotten hot again as he has turned things around.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: New Life. I can't believe that the Mets aren't buried and gone...and I think neither can they. There's a different attitude around the team this weekend, as they're on the verge of taking three out of four from the Phillies - it's like some children's storybook. The Mets lost their confidence at some point in the past couple of years in Philadelphia. Well, the first weekend of July, 2008, they went back to Philadelphia, and lo and behold there it was - the Mets are back!

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: Well, up until today I was going to comment on Pedro Martinez*'s efforts, but he might have turned a corner with Monday's start. Maybe all he needed was some run support. I could have predicted he'd find his stuff tonight, though - because I chose not to start him in fantasy baseball.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: I guess when all is said and done, I really wanted the Mets to have some representation in the All Star Game (read: more than just Billy Wagner). But like I wrote last week - they really didn't deserve it. And Wagner showed on Sunday why his selection is dicey. I find myself, though, voting like crazy for David Wright to make the team - I like to think that at the end of his career he will have a really long string of continuous All Star appearances. (Help him out - click here to vote for David Wright!)

MOST IMPRESSIVE: Just because I happened to catch it live on Sunday, Justin Upton hit a 484-foot bomb at Chase Field against the Padres. It landed in the seating area for the restaurant out behind left field. It deserves mention as "impressive".

BIGGEST SURPRISE: A step up for the Tampa Bay Rays. Instead of just being "impressive" this time around, they get the "surprise" label because they don't just lead their division anymore, they have the best record in all of baseball.

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: The Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Have you seen this stat? The Orioles won the first Sunday of the season, and haven't won since, dropping thirteen straight on Sunday. I love that type of stuff, unless the Mets are involved.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: I guess this merits mentioning here. Jeff Francoeur was recalled today, after being sent down to Double-A for three days. It was supposed to be a three-week stint. He complained, and was recalled, after tearing it up at the lower level. I think the Braves did the absolute right thing, and I think Francoeur should have dealt with it and come back after the All Star break ready to play if he was upset about it. I became a big believer in the 'sending the ineffective player' back down thing after the Blue Jays did it with Roy Halladay five or six years ago - he went all the way down to Single-A. I know it's different situations, because Halladay had less major league experience at that point than Francoeur, but he's been dominant since that send-down. Think it lit a fire under him? I do. (I think it was the right thing for the Tigers to do with Dontrelle Willis too.) Maybe the same thing will happen with Francoeur - but his whining might have messed up the process.

WRIGHT WATCH: It's been a while since I did an update while the Mets were actually playing, which means it's been a while since we've updated you on David Wright's march on the all-time doubles record (he had an RBI double tonight, along with a homer):

ALL-TIME LEADER: 792
WRIGHT'S SEASON TOTAL: 22
WRIGHT'S CAREER TOTAL: 163

(22 doubles? That man should be an All Star! Vote here.)

BIRTHDAY WISHES TO ME: Not to toot my own horn, but I turned 30 today. And the only reason I bring that up is because you may or may not remember, but I designed an MLB-type sleeve patch to celebrate the occasion. This is probably the last opportunity I'll have to show it, so I'm showing it again.

PREVIEW: AL EAST

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I haven't bought a baseball preview magazine. I peeked through it the last time I was in the supermarket, and the one I picked up didn't even have the Johan Santana deal. So I figure, why bother? And I also figure, why don't I just write my own. So this week I'll quickly preview each of the divisions, culminating in my playoff picks and my award winners. Today we look at the American League East.

So much of what happens in the American League East depends on health. The Blue Jays haven't been healthy for the past two years - they've lost key players each of those years. The Red Sox have stayed pretty healthy during their recent run of success, and have been threatened by injuries this spring. So what follows is a prediction based on the way I see the division now - with no key injuries:

Baltimore will be last place. That's a bold statement in the division that features the Tampa Bay Rays, but I think Tampa is looking at a reprise of the 2004 season - 4th place, Baby! The Orioles are just such a mess - and their pitching looks awful without "Bedard" at the top of the rotation. The Rays have built themselves a solid young team, and may be flirting with .500 if they didn't have to play the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox so much. I also love the fact that they're going toe-to-toe with the Yankees in Spring Training - more on that in a minute.

I'm not in love with Joe Girardi managing the Yankees. I think part of his success in Florida was that he was able to get respect from a team that really had no experience/experience with any sort of leader. I don't think he's as good a fit with the Yankees. I really think there will be tension all year long, and that sideshow will result in a missed post-season, and a third place finish. I think it's already started - I think the fight with Tampa was positive on the Rays' side and just plain silly from the Yankees' point of view. You block home plate, you should expect to get hit - Girardi would demand that of his own players if the situation were reversed. He was a catcher, too - he knows what the position is like. The fact that they retaliated like they did - it's childish, really. I think that sort of thing will be happening all year long and the final year at Yankee Stadium will be a disappointment.

Now is where the injuries factor in. If they stay healthy, I think the Blue Jays are the second-place team. They have a very strong rotation, and I feel like Scott Rolen may have a rebirth in Toronto. I like the additions they made, and they have some good players from the past couple of years. Now, if these guys don't play, they're in trouble - but we're going on the assumption they'll be healthy enough to play all season.

The Red Sox are in the same boat, somewhat. Injuries could shake that team up. Curt Schilling is already gone for much of the year. Josh Beckett's injury is a little more serious than I initially thought it would be. If he has this problem (back spasms) for much of the year, that really hurts the Sox. And on the other end of the rotation - Jonathan Papelbon always seems to be dealing with something towards the end of the year - that's something to watch out for, too. Bottom line - I think Boston has enough to defend their division title - but these top three teams might finish pretty close.

IN PRAISE OF ERIK BEDARD

Quick - do you know who leads the majors in strikeouts? You can probably guess, based on the topic of this entry. Erik Bedard, like Mike Maroth, is just one of my guys. I don't know why, I just think he's a very good pitcher, on a not-so-good team, and I always try to get him on my fantasy team. Unlike other players, Bedard turns out to be a move that I could have made with my head instead of my heart....he is quickly becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The past couple of seasons, Bedard has gotten off to slow starts...this year, for instance, after his first 5 starts, he was 3-2, but had a 6.11 ERA. We'll throw his sixth start, a no-decision, into the "rocky" category, though the 4 runs he gave up in six innings lowered his ERA to 6.09. Over his next five starts, Bedard began a string of absolute dominance that continues straight through to today...and he went 0-1 in those five starts, giving up 2, 0, 3, 1 and 2 earned runs. He was just getting no support from his teammates.

Bedard won his next outing, shutting out the Royals over eight innings, and then his June went like this:

at SEA: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K (no decision)
vs. COL: 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K (loss)
vs. ARI: 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 K (no decision)
at SD: 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K (win)
Last night vs. NYY: 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, 8 K (win)

The only flaw in Bedard's game is that he gets so many strikeouts, which forces him to throw a lot of pitches, and ends up leaving a lot of games early...not sticking around to the late innings. He'll go 6 or 7, 8 innings, rarely. And with the Baltimore bullpen, that gives them a few innings to blow leads, and that leaves Bedard with a lot of no decisions. He also has given up 11 homers on the season - that seems like a high total to me.

Bedard's numbers on the year right now, after Wednesday night's win against New York:

17 Games Started
107 Innings Pitched
129 Strikeouts (Leads Majors)
6-4 Record
3.36 ERA
94 Hits
32 Walks

Part of this entry is to make a case that Bedard deserves a spot on the American League All Star team. But it's also to draw attention to someone who is mired away on a team that hasn't done well, and has an awful bullpen, which affects his win total.

Bedard is 6-4 right now. He could easily be 12-4. That would have gotten him some attention.

SWEEP AVOIDED

Mets 9, Orioles 4 (NYM: 43-25, BAL: 32-39)

The Mets beat the Orioles on Sunday, 9-4, to avoid a three-game sweep. There's a positive view to the weekend series, and a negative view. Let me give you both:

The negative: The Mets lost all of their momentum from their 9-1 road trip, stumbling against a poor team in their own park. Pedro Martinez* had another bad start, and the Mets bats have gone cold again.

The positive: It's 2 games. The Mets lost 2 games. They're still 9-and-a-half games up on their nearest competition.

There's actually a lot of positives still to focus on - only the most negative of Mets fans can dwell on the bad parts of this weekend. The Orioles actually played really well on Friday and Saturday, and the Mets didn't. That's the bottom line. The Mets were making the mistakes that their opponents had been making, and that the Mets had been taking advantage of. In this case, the Orioles took advantage of them. Also, a couple of ex-Mets took advantage of their first games against their former team, and hit the Mets hard. Melvin Mora had a 3-RBI night on Friday, including a big homer, and Kris Benson shut down the Mets on Saturday (setting down his final 15 straight), and hit a homer off of Pedro*.

But Sunday came, and all is right with the Mets' world again. Tom Glavine pitched well (not great - but definitely better than he had been lately), becoming the first major league pitcher to get to 10 wins. Future Hall of Famer David Wright hit a grand slam (number 15 on the year, 56 career), and drove in five runs, and the Mets got contributions from their role players, as some of the regulars were rested. And they avoided the sweep, which could have really ratcheted up the negativity.

Here's the big picture - at the end of May I mentioned that the Mets had won 16 games in each of their first two months. I said if they won 16 a month, they'd finish with 112 wins, and they'd be in great shape (understatement). It's a torrid pace to keep up, I know, but the Mets are capable of it. Right now they have 11 wins this month (thanks mostly to the huge road trip). That means the Mets could go 5-6 (which wouldn't look that great in the little picture) the rest of the month, and still finish June with 16 wins. And chances are, the Mets are going to do better than 5-6 the rest of the month.

There are some tough games ahead. The Mets will get their first look at Cincinnati, for four games at Shea (taking a break from interleague play - tough schedule for the Mets - the other teams get Tampa Bay, the Mets get the extra National League series against Cincy). Then it's at Toronto for three, and they're playing well. Then at Boston, and at the Yankees. The Mets have proved they are capable of rising to challenges in the schedule like this...but that's a tough road. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets were 5-6 the rest of the way - but I also wouldn't be surprised to see an 11-0, or a 10-1, or a 9-2. That's how good they are.

Orlando Hernandez gets it all started against Bronson Arroyo Monday night.

DL MOVE: The Mets put Cliff Floyd on the DL Saturday, retroactive to June 7th. He still hasn't recovered from that ankle injury he suffered in LA. He's eligible to come off the DL on Thursday, but that doesn't seem likely - he might have to go to Florida to rehab it. He's very frustrated. The Mets activated Xavier Nady (sidelined since early June with appendicitis) on Sunday to take Floyd's roster spot. Look for Lastings Milledge to man left field now, in place of Floyd, with Nady taking over right again.

COMMENT RESPONSE: This from Dave in Brighton, responding to my comments about umpire warnings, ejections, etc.:

"Re: Pitcher ejections.

1. Are you calling Manny Ramirez (450 HR) a young player?

B. I disagree that umpires are right to issue warnings after the first hit batter or aggressive action. This means the other team doesn't get a chance to respond and even things up. The umpire takes away players' ability to police themselves, and then you get long-simmering feuds, like the Sox and D-Rays.

Soapbox rant over."

I like how Dave couldn't choose between the 1,2 or A, B listing option, so he mixed them together. As for Manny....he was one example. Mentally, he's young.

Dave, my point is that the umpires HAVE to do the warnings, before there's a retaliation, because otherwise it gets out of hand. I don't think the players have the ability anymore to police themselves. I agree with you, though, that the result is long-simmering fueds, like Tampa-Boston, and even like the Mets and the Nationals earlier this year (which we might see again later in the year when they play again). That's the problem - I don't think there is a good solution to this whole thing. There's going to be problems either way, and I think Major League Baseball is doing the best thing they could possibly do right now given their situation.

The other problem, which I failed to mention, is when the umpires handle this responsibility incompetently. Then warnings are issued when they needn't be issued, and the inside part of the plate is taken away from both pitchers, and the game turns into a mockery. That's another problem with it....but I'll save that for another day.

HGH FALLOUT: David Segui spoke out Sunday morning on ESPN, saying he was mentioned in the Jason Grimsley affadavit, and that he took HGH legally, with a doctor's prescription. Segui is a former Met, and that's why I'm mentioning it here. I think most of this stuff, though, happened when Segui was in Baltimore (although I don't doubt it could have happened in New York as well). To me, it sounded like Segui was trying to take a pre-emptive strike, speaking out before he could be accused. I don't think it worked too much, though - because cynics like me look at him as someone who's trying to dig himself out of a hole before he's fully in the hole....if that makes sense. I still think he was wrong - no matter if he admits to taking something or not. Many other names are still to come.

I'm not in the business of witch-hunting, so I'm not going to just throw names out on this site. But if you want to contact me, I'll talk about who I think were the biggest users - I watch all of these baseball games now, and there are certain players who just look so physically different that it's hard not to suspect them.

THE KID'S KIDS: The St. Lucie Mets get back at it on Monday against Brevard County, following the All-Star break. The Mets have a one-game lead on Palm Beach, and a 2-game lead on Brevard County.

FANTASY UPDATE: The What If Mets are starting to realize, I think, that time is getting short. They took two out of three against the Astros, and are still 7 back of the wild card. This is the time to make up ground - the Cardinals and Cubs are the next opponents, and they aren't good. It's now or never.

BEAT THE STREAK: I had a 2-gamer going, and Carlos Beltran* ended it on Sunday. So stubbornly I'm sticking with Beltran* again on Monday against the Reds.

Just a minor test posting - seeing if anyone even bothers checking the site over the weekend...I haven't been in the habit of writing on Friday or Saturday nights.

Aaron Heilman just gave up 4 runs in the seventh inning (the ugliest inning the Mets have played in a week or so), blowing a lead on Alay Soler. Now, the Mets are playing the Orioles, so there's a good chance this game is not over, with the Mets trailing, 6-3...but it's so weird to see them losing with the way things have been going lately.

THE KID'S KIDS: Believe it or not, we're at the All-Star break of the Florida State League. The Mets lost to Vero Beach, 2-1, to stumble into the break on a 5-game losing streak, but still have a one-game lead in the division, with a 38-29 record at the break. Six St. Lucie Mets are on the All Star team.

FANTASY UPDATE: The What If Mets lost two out of three to the Reds - now seven back of the wild card...fading.....

BEAT THE STREAK: Reyes has a streak going for me again - I took Vernon Wells for Saturday.