MY METS WISHLIST

I realized I'd better start writing this entry about how I'd like to see the Mets rebuild when I saw today that Trever Miller signed with the Cardinals. Seems like he would have been a pretty good piece in the Mets' bullpen. But with that ship having sailed, I'll give you my hopes for the Mets' off-season, as well as some predictions about what will probably happen, based on the Mets' history in player moves:

DESPERATE NEEDS
Bullpen:
Clearly, the bullpen is a disaster. And some of the names from the bullpen, like Luis Ayala, as poorly as they played, are also free agents. So the Mets are down in talent and numbers. And then there's Aaron Heilman, who now is demanding a trade if he doesn't get moved into the rotation. And the fact that Billy Wagner is hurt, so the Mets need a closer. Yikes.
My Pie in the Sky:
I've already mentioned that I think Kerry Wood is worth a flier. At the very least, he would fit the bill as enticing possibility who doesn't live up to the expectations. At the most, he continues what he built upon after his return last season. But I've started to think that the Mets' answers to their bullpen woes lie in the folks they already have in their system: I'd like to see John Maine get a shot at closing, just to see what would happen. He is effective the first time through a lineup, and he has a tendency to throw too many pitches early in a game. Maybe he's cut out to be a reliever rather than a starter.

And watching what has happened with the likes of Jonathan Papelbon, Joba Chamberlain, and David Price, the Mets might have their own types in their own minor leagues. Like Bradley Holt (maybe now he's Brad Holt), 33rd overall choice in last year's draft. Holt pitched 72 innings last year for the Brooklyn Cyclones, and had 96 strikeouts, with a 1.87 ERA. I know it's a big jump, but other teams have seen players succeed making that jump. I'd like to see him at least get a shot.
Prediction:
The Mets will probably end up adding spare parts like Ron Villone to the bullpen, and I fear there will not be the necessary improvements solely because there isn't much talent to go around.

Rotation:
The problem, if the Mets move players around from within, is that they will end up being short in the rotation. Johan Santana is set as number one, but there's not much left after him. I wouldn't mind seeing Oliver Perez back, but I don't think he's worth the numbers he's going to be asking.
My Pie In the Sky:
I know the Mets aren't going after CC Sabathia (although, didn't they drop out of the Johan Santana race - albeit a trade - in the earlygoing only to become the team to land him later...), but I'd love to see them go after one of the marquis strikeout guys there, like A.J. Burnett, or maybe even Brad Penny. That's why I think it's better to find the closer solution from within, so that the Mets could spend the big money on another starter.
Prediction:
I'm afraid the Mets are going to land Derek Lowe, who we've mentioned time and again in separate articles (do a search, I'm not going to bother linking them) as the biggest headcase in the league. As such, I don't think Lowe + New York = a good fit. But he might end up either with the Yankees or the Mets - the newspapers will end up having a field day, but fans will not end up being pleased.

Corner Outfielder:
Moises Alou was a disaster. When he played, he was awesome - an excellent hitter. But he played too few games and they were too far between. So good riddance to the walking wounded. Now the Mets need to fill that hole:
My Pie In the Sky:
I liked what Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy brought to the team. So I wouldn't be devastated if the Mets didn't do anything here - but I find a couple of options intriguing. I like Mark Kotsay (who also could play first base when Carlos Delgado comes nowhere near repeating what he did in the second half of last year) and also Bobby Abreu - Abreu because I'd rather see that outfielder on base 40% of the time instead of on the DL 85% of the time.
Prediction:
So help me God the Mets had better not sign Manny Ramirez. I actually feel like they're probably going to go after (and get) Raul Ibanez. I think there are worse things.

WOULD BE NICE, BUT NOT NECESSARY
Shortstop:
I'm not even sure if this is a popular opinion, but I think Jose Reyes has to go. I feel like things need to be shaken up to a point (after the past two Septembers) that this is the right amount of shaking up. So I say trade Reyes, and then the Mets would need to fill the shortstop position. And Argenis Reyes did a nice job in his major league stint last year.
My Pie in the Sky:
I read something recently that the Orioles are thinking about moving Brian Roberts to shortstop because it's easier to fill the second base hole than a shortstop one, until they find a long-term solution at shortstop. They also said George Sherill could be had for the right price. What if the Mets could swing a deal with the O's, Reyes for Sherill (and maybe some minor leaguers), solving the Mets' bullpen need and Baltimore's shortstop need. And the Mets get plenty in return (high prospects, hopefully) for this ultra-valuable trading chip.
Prediction:
I doubt Reyes is going anywhere. I say Reyes is destined for another September, and hopefully an October, where he starts popping the ball up because he's pressing, and he doesn't do the types of things that make the team successful for most of the season.

There's plenty of free agency action already taking place. The Mets have been awfully quiet. I feel like after the season they had, they should be making a lot of noise. We'll keep a close eye on it.

CAUSE FOR CONCERN

The Mets put John Maine on the 15-day DL Monday with the bone spurs and sore shoulder that have been bothering him for a while now. He might be out for the season - if he makes it back this year, I wouldn't be surprised if he pitches in relief.

So there's a couple of problems here for the Mets - not the least of which is that their rotation is weakened without Maine. I know he hasn't been great this year - but when healthy he's solid. And he showed in 2006 that he is a clutch pitcher in the post-season.

There are legitimate worries about the rest of the rotation. Oliver Perez is still way too inconsistent. He's been pitching well lately, but you never know when that will end. Pedro Martinez* isn't the Pedro Martinez of old...every time he starts it looks like he's working too hard to get out six innings with only three runs allowed. Whoever replaces Maine will be young and inexperienced - most likely right now Jon Niese - but the Mets will finagle things so they won't need that rotation spot for a week or so. Mike Pelfrey has been great - I'm actually least worried about him.

Johan Santana, though, I'm a little worried about. I know I was among those calling for him to go deeper into games. But I'm not sure he's that type of pitcher. I just worry that he's throwing too many, against his will, because he's succumbing to the media pressure of New York City. And I worry that he's going to hurt his arm, and the Mets will be left with no one come playoff time. Maybe I'm worrying too much. But Santana has never been the type to go deep into games...and this great stretch of games that he has pitched seems out of the norm for him (innings pitched-wise). As great as it has been, I hope he's doing it because he can...not because he feels he has to because of the bullpen.

Finally, this is actually the opposite of a 'cause for concern' - more of a cause for celebration. I've been meaning to write it for a while, but haven't had the right forum. So I'll just throw it out here now:

Carlos Delgado has been on fire for about two months now. And the key, it seems to me, is his willingness to go the other way. Every time he has a multiple-hit game, it seems like a couple are going to left field. Monday night he hit an opposite-field homer. I'm not saying all of his homers are going that way - but enough have that it makes you think that's the key. I wonder if it is the work of hitting coach Howard Johnson, or if he figured it out for himself. Either way, he's been the most valuable Met since early July.

THE METS NEED TO COMPLETE A CONTRACT NEGOTIATION IMMEDIATELY

I can't even believe it.

I half expect that the Mets and Johan Santana will not be able to reach a contract extension....or Santana will fail his physical. There's no way this could be happening.

But I think it is.

I partly said the trade wasn't going to happen at all because I didn't want him not to go to the Mets. But a small, small part of me felt really good about the chances of Santana coming to the Mets. I can't put my finger on why - perhaps because after all the Yankees and Red Sox talk during the Winter Meetings, and especially the Red Sox talk after the meetings....the Mets name came up again. And it didn't seem likely that those were just rumors. And I bet the Twins were enticed by the fact that they wouldn't have to see Santana a few times a year if he stayed in the American League - if they traded him to the Mets, they would face him once every three years.

Bottom Line: I'm thrilled. And so is Steve in Queens:

"As one of your loyal readers, I demand that you comment on the Johan Santana deal. Although the football talk has been interesting, this truly signifies a turning point where all focus should be placed on the Mets. I can't believe that the Mets just got the best pitcher in the game for 4 guys who may or may not amount to much. Based on the Mets track record of farm system pitchers (Izzy / Wilson / Pulsipher), this may very well be the best deal in Mets history. I would love to hear your thoughts on that."

I think you're exactly right, Steve. And that's part of the reason I'm still waiting for the bad news, or the catch. Because the Mets don't usually make deals this good. I liked watching Carlos Gomez play - he has great speed, he's a good defender, but he's a stellar trading chip, and the Mets turned him into Johan Santana. Kevin Mulvey had some good minor league numbers, but Mets minor league pitchers are a crapshoot (also the case with Philip Humber). I've never even heard of Deolis Guerra, but if giving him up is what it takes to bring in Santana, I'm all for it.

How good does Santana make the Mets? He's a legit number one, something they didn't have all of last year (if he's here last year, there's no such collapse, I'll tell you that). Pedro Martinez* becomes your number two pitcher! John Maine and Oliver Perez could be very different pitchers as number three and four starters, their natural roles, instead of being bumped up in the rotation (John Maine was the Mets' number one starter last year - being depended on to be the stopper more often than anyone....and succeeding quite often. Imagine how he'll do this year. Let me point this out - with the season on the line last year [and even in the 2006 playoffs], Maine came up huge...more huge than Tom Glavine, who couldn't make it out of the first inning.)

Look at the rotation from last year to now:
2007...........................2008
Glavine.......................Santana
Maine.........................Martinez*
Perez..........................Maine
Hernandez.................Perez
Pelfrey/Lawrence/Sosa/Vargas/Humber/Williams/Park....................Hernandez

Needless to say, 2008 is better.

This is very exciting. I was having a hard time justifying how I would pick the Mets to win the NL East this year...the Braves look a lot better, the Phillies are the defending division champions....but this is amazing. It's just amazing - for the Mets to keep the core of their team intact, and ADD to it (not giving up Jose Reyes, for example) - it just seems too good to be true. I read somewhere the Mets mortgaged their future on Santana. I don't think so. Four guys who no one knows how good they'll be for a proven superstar, who actually was not overworked in Minnesota (he adhered to fairly mundane pitch counts) is a great deal - not a giving up your future-type deal. The Mets have plenty of years from their core right now at the key positions to develop new prospects.

The last piece is for Santana to pass a physical, then the Mets to work out a contract extension. They need to give Santana what he wants. Rumor has it he wants 5 years, which the Mets don't do....do it. Give him what he wants.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We'll take away one of my "fan" Super Bowl previews to accomodate today's happy news. Tomorrow we'll have Justin from NYC, Thursday will be Dave in Brighton, then Friday I'll make my pick. Unless the Mets acquire someone else special.

MEET THE 2007 METS

The roster is set. Lastings Milledge and Ambiorix Burgos will be heading to St. Louis for the season opener, Chan Ho Park and Jon Adkins will not. Here's a breakdown of the 2007 Mets (please note the size of the picture has nothing to do with favoritism):

THE LINEUP

SS - JOSE REYES - Becoming one of the best leadoff men in the game. My pick for National League MVP this year. Also might win a gold glove one of these days. The Mets are lucky to have him.







3B - DAVID WRIGHT - Again, Mets are lucky to have him. I place him here, because Willie Randolph has been putting Wright in the two spot, and moving Paul LoDuca down in the order, and if I could choose, I'd want Wright in the two spot. A little pop (of which LoDuca has very little) as well as a few more at-bats per game for Wright. So maybe Willie will read this and take what I want into consideration.



CF - CARLOS BELTRAN - Hopefully Beltran will pick up where he left off last year, and have another MVP-type season. Also, I remember in Little League, when I made the last out of my team's season (although, I grounded out to short and didn't strike out LOOKING), I remembered that all the way through the next season and came back with a monster year. Just saying, Carlos.


1B - CARLOS DELGADO - Solid production is all I'm asking for. A higher batting average than last year would be nice, too.






LF - MOISES ALOU - I've said it before, I'll say it again. This has been the quietest spring ever by a big-name acquisition. What does that mean? I don't know. A quietly productive season would be great, but too much quiet this season would be bad news.




RF - SHAWN GREEN - The jury's out. He was a good clubhouse influence, so far as I could tell, during the Mets' stretch run last year. He's not going to be clubbing 40 homers at Shea, but if he's around .280, 20 HR, I think I'd be happy with that.





C - PAUL LODUCA - Not sure if LoDuca and Green may swap positions in the lineup, but LoDuca will see a slight decrease in playing time this year, so perhaps Ramon Castro will be in this spot more often. Critics say LoDuca will not be able to match his hot hitting of a year ago...I think he'll hit for a good average, especially if Randolph holds to his promise to rest LoDuca more.



2B - JOSE VALENTIN - I'd be surprised, if the Mets are having another very good season, if Valentin is a major part of it. I'd also be surprised if he's the starting second baseman by year's end. If anyone had a career season last year that won't be repeated, it's Valentin.


THE BENCH

The problem with Valentin is that there's no suitable replacement on the Mets' bench right now. (The bench above, from left to right: Ramon Castro, Endy Chavez, Damion Easley, Julio Franco, Lastings Milledge, and David Newhan.) I'd love for Damion Easley to be that sparkplug off the bench that the Mets have had in recent years in Marlon Anderson or Jose Valentin, but I don't think Easley will be taking away anyone's job. Ramon Castro is a good backup for LoDuca - about what you'd want for a backup catcher. Chavez will get plenty of playing time this year, subbing for Alou, who will get plenty of rest, and Green. Milledge is here for the time being, he'll probably be sent down when the Mets need their fifth starter. Franco is more of a coach than a player at this point, and it's getting to the point where the Mets are wasting a bench spot on him. And I really like David Newhan. He can play the outfield or first base. I picked him up in a fantasy league when he had a really hot streak going with the Orioles a couple of years ago - he's capable of doing good things. Too bad he's only played a very limited amount of time in his career at second base.

THE ROTATION

TOM GLAVINE - 10 wins from 300 in his career. He'll get there, but hopefully this isn't one of those situations where the team starts pressing trying to achieve a milestone. Glavine seems to have been reborn with the Mets' success. I expect a good year.




ORLANDO HERNANDEZ - El Duque has already complained about some neck stiffness. His ability to stay healthy will be one of the main factors for the Mets all year - if for no other reason than it's better to have El Duque in the rotation than Chan Ho Park. Park was sent down because there was no room for him in the bullpen or the rotation - if the Mets need to call him up (a la last year, using 13 starters), it will most likely be due to an injur y to this man.
JOHN MAINE - Last year couldn't have done anything but help his confidence. He's got a pad now, as the number three guy, and shouldn't have to worry about being dropped from the rotation due to a bad start. That all adds up to a comfortable season, and hopefully a successful one.

OLIVER PEREZ - I really think Perez is going to shock people this year. This year is the first time Perez will be with a successful team - I bet he rises to the challenge. I can't wait for him to prove me right.



MIKE PELFREY - I'm so glad the Mets went with Pelfrey over a veteran retread. The exposure to the Majors that Pelfrey will receive can only do him good this year, and down the road for the Mets. And, I think he'll have a good season, to boot.



PEDRO MARTINEZ* (MAN-IN-WAITING) - Pedro* should be back by August, if all goes according to plan, and hopefully be very effective by September. That means the Mets get better right when they're turning the corner towards the post-season (hopefully).




THE BULLPEN

(From left to right: Aaron Sele, Ambiorix Burgos, Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoeneweis [whose name I have been spelling wrong until now], Aaron Heilman, and Billy Wagner.) Aaron Sele won the long-relief job held by Darren Oliver last year. Oliver did a great job, especially in the clutch situations in the post-season. Sele has some big shoes to fill. I liked the acquisition of Ambiorix Burgos, even though it came at the expense of Brian Bannister. I equated him to the Mets' new Guillermo Mota, who had been suspended for steroid use. Then the Mets re-signed Mota, and I wondered why they acquired Burgos. But Burgos throws hard, and showed enough promise this spring to make the team right out of spring training, so hopefully some work with Rick Peterson will make him an asset. Joe Smith has a tricky sidearm delivery, so he'll bring a different look out of the 'pen. Pedro Feliciano has been effective, despite saying some things that have gotten him into my doghouse. Scott Schoeneweis is another lefty out of the bullpen, and I like that acquisition as well. Aaron Heilman isn't happy doing what he's doing, but he sure is effective. He'll probably take last season's NLCS loss more personally for giving up the game-deciding homer in Game 7 than Carlos Beltran for taking the last strike. I expect him to come out and have a great year. Billy Wagner is again the closer. I wonder how much longer he'll be dominant...hopefully he'll have at least this year.

FANTASY NEWS: No "Survivor" yet, but mlb.com has "Beat the Streak" up, so I encourage you to sign up. I already have Jose Reyes for Sunday night. I didn't see the option to create our own league...but if it presents itself, I will be doing it and letting you know about it.

I'll be back Sunday night with the first posting of the season!

THE PITCHING ROTATION...RIGHT WHERE WE LEFT OFF

When we last left the Mets, Pedro Martinez* was hurt, El Duque was out, and John Maine and Oliver Perez were forced to make starts in some of the biggest Mets games in history. Not much has changed.

At least El Duque is healthy now. The Mets rotation is one of the battles to watch this spring. Here's the sure thing - Tom Glavine begins the year as the Mets' number one guy. El Duque will be behind him (the Mets re-signed Hernandez to a 2-year deal, despite his 42 years of age, over the off-season). The Mets actually had El Duque under contract before Glavine - finally re-signing Glavine after originally declining his option. So the top of the rotation is the bottom of the age chart. Then it's likely that Maine and Perez take the 3-4 spots. That leaves quite a battle for the number 5 spot.

The candidates are Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey (my two favorites, or at least who I'm rooting the hardest for), Jorge Sosa, Aaron Sele, and Chan Ho Park. Among others. (Jason Vargas's name comes up every now and again, and there's also Dave Williams, but he's having an injury right now.)

There are positive and negative ways to look at this pitching situation. The negative is that the Mets' two best pitchers are on the wrong side of 40, and no one is really great. But as far as I can see, that's the only negative.

The positives include:

• The Mets have depth at pitcher, something that served them well last year when they came within a pitch of the World Series. Last year the Mets started 13 different pitchers - that's a rare thing when you consider teams on the other end of the rare spectrum, suffering no injuries, would just start 5. This year, look for something in the middle - there will be injuries, but the Mets have the manpower to get through them.
• There's no Steve Trachsel. I've been down on Trachsel for years - he's had flashes of good pitching, but never showed he could do it on the big stage. When he finally got the big stage last year, he couldn't perform. So now he's in Baltimore. And the Mets have a guy like Oliver Perez in his place, who could pitch just as well (or perhaps as poorly) as Trachsel, maybe even better, and rely less on run support, and turn his career around. (Or recapture some of his early flashes of success.)
• As much as Glavine and Hernandez represent the "old", there's the potential for plenty of "new" for the Mets in the rotation as well. John Maine and Oliver Perez are 26. Philip Humber is 25. Mike Pelfrey is just 23. So there are some kids on the staff who could be the core of the Mets' rotation for years, to go along with the great left side of the infield. As a matter of fact, I think that's the biggest positive - Pelfrey and Humber could be the Mets' future 1-2. Before he hurt his elbow, the Mets considered Humber to be a future star. And Pelfery has shown what he can do at the major league level. It's exciting to watch these guys grow, and give the Mets a nice home-grown core, without the hype that can damage some youngsters.
• My final point is that come late July or August, the Mets will get a brand-spanking new Pedro Martinez*. It'll work like a trading deadline deal, and Pedro* will re-join the staff, and rejuvenate the team. At least that's the way I like to think of it. He will have had plenty of time to rehab, unlike last year, when he came back and was ineffective. It will have been a year and a couple of months since teams saw the real Pedro*. He will give the Mets a big boost heading into the playoffs, and then to look forward to '08, he will be fresher in what might be the final year of his career.

As negative as I was in my last posting, I do feel like the Mets can succeed this year. And the points about the rotation that I've laid out above are a big reason why. Another big part is the offense, which I touched on in that last posting. But for the regular season, at least, the Mets' pitching should be good enough to get by. The Mets will again win many games with their bats this year.

WEEKEND RECAP

Sunday: Braves 13, Mets 3 (NYM: 21-10, ATL: 13-18)

Another weekend sweep of the Braves in sight, another hardy beating by Atlanta. But it's OK, because the Mets still have an 8-game lead in the division.

The problem is, the problems are starting. Victor Zambrano tore a ligament in his elbow on Saturday, and will miss the rest of the season. Here's the problem with Zambrano's elbow. This has been bothering him for a while now. A couple of the other players knew about it, but no one in management knew. And two pitches before Zambrano came running off the mound, mid-inning, in pain, he looked Willie Randolph in the eye and told him he was OK. Even though, on Sunday, he told the media he was not OK at that point. There are going to be major consequences because of Zambrano's stupidity.

• The most important consequence is that the Mets are in a hole with their rotation. In the past few weeks Brian Bannister, his replacement, John Maine, and Zambrano have all gone down with injuries. Bannister is almost eligible to come off the DL, but the Mets don't want to rush him back from his hamstring injury. Maine went on the DL just before Zambrano, with a finger injury, and Zambrano is out for the year. Jose Lima was just OK replacing Zambrano (5 runs in 5 innings...but this was not an ordinary outing - more on that later), and he'll probably get another start. The Mets are also big on Jeremi Gonzalez, who has been back and forth between majors and minors the past couple of years. It does not look like the Mets are going to mess around with their bullpen - they like the roles everyone is in there, and they won't be pulling guys out of the pen (like Darren Oliver or Aaron Heilman) to fill in for the injured starters.
• I call Zambrano stupid because while the Mets were concerned about his hamstring all this time, he was having elbow problems, and he kept his mouth shut. The Mets would never have let Zambrano go out there if he had said something, because they don't want to jeopardize his health. The problem here is that Zambrano was already on the verge of losing his job, just because of the whole fact that he was underperforming, and he was the guy they traded Kazmir for....but he still should have said something.
• Zambrano is supposed to be ready to come back by the beginning of next season. But the wild card is that this is an elbow Zambrano has had trouble with before - so it's not automatic that he will respond well to a second surgery. Also - do the Mets even want him back? Everytime he pitches, he carries with him the label "disappointing Mets trade". And now, does Randolph trust him? Zambrano lied to Randolph's face about his health, so why should Randolph believe anything Zambrano says in the future? He's opened up quite the can of worms.

The rest of the weekend wasn't so bleak. Both Friday night (Happy Birthday to my sister!) and Saturday afternoon the Mets came from behind to hand the Braves disappointing losses. And Saturday, with Randolph wanting to rest both Duaner Sanchez and Billy Wagner* (I can't believe he's gone this long without an asterisk...he clearly deserves one), Jorge Julio got the save. It wasn't the easiest save, but he got the save, and that's progress. It's also progress that Randolph would trust Julio in that type of situation, and get a positive result.

Also, Carlos Beltran* has homered in 3 consecutive games. It's not 2004's post-season Carlos Beltran yet....but he's certainly better than the 2005* edition.

The Mets have an off-day Monday, then they head to Philadelphia for 3.

FROM THE MOUTH OF THE WIFE: I forgot to mention this - but remember earlier in the week when Willie Randolph got thrown out of a game for arguing a called strike three call against David Wright? Well, the cameras kept cutting back to Wright in the dugout, steaming. Keith Hernandez (or Gary Cohen, I forget who) says, "And David Wright is hot. He's HOT in the dugout." The Wife, without missing a beat, says, "Yeah, he's hot." But I'm OK with it.

ALSO KEEP FORGETTING TO MENTION: When we were in San Diego, the Padres batters, like most other teams, come to the plate with their own music playing. Adrian Gonzalez, playing 1B that night, has by far the best music in the Majors when he comes to the plate. Not sure what it was that was playing, but it was catchy. And, since it was a 14-inning game, we heard it 6 times! He's only 23, so hopefully he keeps that music throughout his career. If the Padres are on TV, and they're home, and you have a chance to watch, and Gonzalez is starting - try to catch one of his at-bats. That's my public service announcement for the day.

THE KID'S KIDS: The St. Lucie Mets are expanding their lead in the division. They beat Fort Myers on Sunday, 9-6, to improve to 19-10 on the year. They're now up by 2 games over Palm Beach.

Elsewhere in the minors, Boof Bonser took the loss as Rochester lost to Pawtucket, 5-2. Bonser gave up 3 earned runs in 6.2 IP, striking out 6, walking 3, and giving up 8 hits. His overall season stats are still impressive - he is just 2-2, but he has a 1.87 ERA. Still better than a lot of the Twins' major league pitchers.

FANTASY UPDATE: The What if Mets are back to .500...but it was a battle. They're 6-6- Dwight Gooden is 2-0, and leads the league in strikeouts. Robin Ventura is amazing, at the plate, and I think I may have figured out a way to tell if my guys are going to beat the opponent. I feel pretty good about the way my lineup is right now. I'm playing the Phillies for the next 4 games - my first division opponent. 6-6 is relatively good in the league - but I'm in the toughest division - including the Nationals/Expos, run by Kevin from Wilmington, who started 0-1, and rattled off 11 straight wins. So I'm wondering if he's really good, or if the teams he played are really bad. I'll find out when I play them, I guess. That can't happen soon enough - I'd love an 11-game winning streak.

BEAT THE STREAK: This will be controversial - David Wright was my Sunday pick, and he was hitless until his last at-bat, when he hit a fly ball that the center fielder dropped. It was ruled a double. So my hit streak is at 3. But I don't know what will happen when, in the coming days, that is turned into an error, which it has to be, and Wright's hit is taken away. I wonder how that affects beat the streak. Anyway, Monday, I like Vernon Wells' career numbers against Jeff Weaver, so he's the pick.

MEET THE METS

To put in in terms that I can handle, all I have to do as I write this Friday night, is go to sleep three more times, and then the last time I wake up, it will be Opening Day for the Mets. I can handle that...I think. Only 2 more sleeps until Opening Day for baseball, with the White Sox and Indians. I'll take it.

The starting lineup for the Mets is still a little undecided. Willie Randolph says he has about five or six ideas that he will juggle through the season, but Opening Day is very likely to look something like this:

1. THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED, Jose Reyes: I expect this, statistically to be his best season yet. I think he'll beat last year's league-leading stolen base total (60), because I think he'll be on base that much more. He will be THE most fun player to watch across the majors this season. Last year was the year for David Wright to be discovered, this year, as his OBP increases, people will start jumping onto the Jose Reyes bandwagon.

2. Paul LoDuca: I think LoDuca will be batting second Opening Day. Anderson Hernandez's bat isn't good enough yet to hit here - but it's a possibility later on. I bet the production out of LoDuca and Ramon Castro compares to the league-leading offensive production at the catching position of Castro and Mike Piazza last year.

3. Carlos Beltran*: While I do expect a bounceback year from Beltran*, I don't think he will be the best number three hitter on the team. Randolph seems happy to keep batting Beltran* third, but he's going to be great out of the 2-hole. Also, the way the lineup is set up now, it really pushes Wright down in the order - I'd love for Beltran* to be 2, with Wright 3.

4. Carlos Delgado: Here begins the right-left-right-left balance of the Mets lineup. They'll be tough for opposing managers to strategize against. Delgado should be solid - hopefully he stays healthy.

5. Future Hall of Famer David Wright: The coming-out party is complete, now it's time to maintain the level of productivity he set last year. On career homer number 41 and counting.....

6. Cliff Floyd: Don't expect the fast start Floyd got off to last year. But also don't expect the slide he went through later in the season. Floyd was tired from carrying the team all year. He doesn't have to do that anymore, and his offensive numbers will be more consistent throughout the year.

7. Xavier Nady: I talked recently about how Nady had been slumping, leading the Mets to consider keeping Victor Diaz on the team. They still haven't made a decision about Diaz, but Nady finished the spring strong, and will be the starting right fielder. I don't really know what to expect out of Nady. Truth be told, I'm not expecting much, so if he hits well, consider it a bonus for me.

8. Anderson Hernandez: The second baseman isn't expected to do much at the plate. Kaz Matsui will be playing once he's healthy to try to increase his trade value, then the Mets will try to unload him and hand Hernandez the job.

STARTERS
1. Pedro Martinez*: Let's not kid ourselves. Tom Glavine is getting the Opening Day start, but Pedro Martinez* is the number one pitcher. The toe won't be a problem. Pedro*'s 3 runs in four innings in his last spring start won't be a problem. Cy Young might be a possibility.

2. Tom Glavine: He's 40. This is his last hurrah. I expect a game effort. I'd say 13-15 wins, 8 losses, and a 3.5-ish ERA. Good enough to help the Mets to the playoffs.

3. Steve Trachsel: I've always said Trachsel has to prove to me he can win when the pressure's on in New York. It still hasn't happened - lately he hasn't been healthy when the pressure's on in New York. Hopefully the health issue is resolved. Let's see if the good pitching thing is resolved.

4. Victor Zambrano: This is the year we'll see whether the work with Rick Peterson is paying off. Otherwise, it was a bad trade.

5. Brian Bannister: Son of Floyd. Not sure what to expect out of him. He earned the starting position with a great spring. That didn't cut it for the likes of Tyler Yates. I like rooting for Mets rookies, and I would love for Bannister to succeed. I just hope he doesn't go back to Norfolk in May with a 5.00 ERA, forcing Aaron Heilman to become a starter.

BENCH
Some positions to be determined here, but the definites seem to be Ramon Castro, Jose Valentin, Endy Chavez, Chris Woodward and Julio Franco. The big thing with these guys is versatility - Valentin, Chavez, and Woodward can play lots of positions. Victor Diaz is still a question mark, depending on the number of relievers the Mets keep.

BULLPEN
Billy Wagner is the closer. Most reliable closer (hopefully) the Mets have had in years. Aaron Heilman, if he continues like he pitched in relief last year, should get the lead to Wagner, and can pitch more than one inning. The rest of the bullpen looks like: Jorge Julio, Duaner Sanchez, and right-handed specialist Chad Bradford. The Mets may keep another lefty, and I think they're still trying to decide if it's Pedro Feliciano or Darren Oliver.

My prediction: 95-67, good enough for the Mets to win the East...then the World Series.

BEAT THE STREAK!: The wife found 'Beat The Streak' had the create-a-league link up, so we now have a league. Here's the info - League Name: JohnnyMets League password: 06mets
Sign up, click here to get there. I promise it'll be fun.

ONE MORE METS NOTE: Somehow, Mitch Wylie wasn't picked up by anyone else, and he accepted an assignment to Norfolk. We'll keep an eye on him at Triple-A, and see how he progresses. This is the Rule 5 guy who impressed this spring.

The next write-up could very well be the first recap of the season on Monday! Enjoy the first games of the season!

No news out of the Mets' first spring workout, which took place Thursday morning at 9 o'clock. No news is definitely good news - we don't need to be hearing about injuries or camp mishaps on Day 1.

That said, I'll spend a little bit of time today talking about the future of the Mets.

2B Anderson Hernandez and OF Lastings Milledge are the two big Mets prospects to keep an eye on this year. Both seem to have made it through the off-season without being traded (though I wouldn't put it past Omar Minaya to trade Milledge for whatever pitchers might become available...I hope he doesn't). Both Hernandez and Milledge will be in Triple-A this season. (Milledge has yet to make it to the majors, Hernandez was 1-for-18 in his September call-up last year - but is better known for his fielding.) But I'm thinking ahead - to 2007. Cliff Floyd is playing his last season under his current contract. Negotiations with the Mets won't happen until after this season. But if Floyd doesn't re-up with the Mets, Milledge could get his shot in 2007. And the big question mark at second base could be filled by Hernandez in 2007 (providing Jeff Keppinger doesn't take it over this year and not give it up). Point is, the Mets, offensively and defensively, could be set for quite a while, considering the relative youth at all the other positions (Wright, Reyes, Beltran*, Nady/Diaz) - only Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca are on the wrong side of 30.

BUT - I'm not sure the Mets are built for too far into the future - because their pitching staff is getting very old. The trades of Jae Seo and Kris Benson really hurt this year's depth in the rotation, but did some damage to the rotation of the future as well. It's realistic to think that Victor Zambrano and Aaron Heilman could be around for a while, but Pedro Martinez*, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel are all up there in age (35, 40, 36 this season), and could contribute MAYBE one more season after this one (depending on how successful even this year is). Billy Wagner, even, is on a 4-year-deal, which will be his last one in the majors, he says. And the rest of the bullpen isn't the greatest in baseball this year - let alone in years to come - but more on that as spring training progresses.

There's not much help in the minors - the number one pitching prospect, Yusmeiro Petit, was traded to the Marlins in the Delgado deal, and none of the other minor leaguers are sure-fire prospects. So that's one area the Mets really need to work on. There's plenty of hope for a championship the way the team is constituted this year...but I'm looking for more than just one year of glory. And for that to happen, the Mets are going to need to bolster certain areas. The good news is, the core is there - some pieces are in place - but there's lots to go to make this a team to dominate for years to come.

PEDRO'S TOE: It seems like Pedro* will not pitch in the first round of the World Baseball Classic. I had mentioned that I didn't think the toe was that big a deal, in other words - it wouldn't cost Pedro* time with the Mets, and it wouldn't stop him from being effective this year. I still believe that. But I also mentioned I think it's Pedro*'s way (along with the Mets) of not having to do something extra-curricular, i.e. the World Baseball Classic. He doesn't like stuff like that. But I do think he really does want to pitch for his country - so I think Pedro* and the Mets are reaching a compromise, where Pedro* will pitch later in the Classic, when he works up his arm strength, and when he would be more intense during spring training anyway. I think that's where we're headed, and I'm thrilled about it - because I could easily see the Mets' hopes for 2006 going down the drain with a Pedro Martinez* injury from the World Baseball Classic.

FIGHTING WORDS: Andruw Jones told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he isn't worried about other teams (i.e. the Mets) unseating the Braves atop the NL East. He says every year they hear about different teams coming in ready to take over the division, and they never do it (citing the Mets last year and the Phillies the year before). He says the Braves have been there each and every year, and know what to expect, and know how to win, and the other teams are still learning how. He's right of course...but the Mets can use that as bulletin board fodder.

Another interesting point, Braves-related: Julio Franco talked the other day about how the Braves don't get up for any particular opponent. They treat every game the same, no matter what uniform the other team is wearing. This would be well-received advice, if he shares it with his new Mets teammates. The Mets tend to get a little more riled for games with the Braves, though those games have met with very limited success in recent years.

UNBELIEVABLE: I'm still on my mission to stop this word from being so overused. I've written about it before, both here and on johnnyjets.blogspot.com. It's especially overused in the sports domain, mostly by broadcasters. It's a crutch, when there's nothing else to say, to throw this word in to describe an event. (I've noticed it a heck of a lot in the Winter Olympics - especially in those sports where very new people are being used to broadcast - i.e. A.J. Mleczko doing women's hockey - she described everything that happened as "unbelievable"...and certain people as "unbelievable talents". They're in the Olympics - I believe they are talented.)

Anyway, it bothers me, and I'm hoping the Mets' new sports network, which I know monitors this site, will make sure their broadcasters avoid overusing the word (I must say, baseball is the sport where the word is used the least - football is the more guilty culprit). Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez are the new color men, and I'm sure Hernandez won't be using the word - he's been awesome when he's done Mets games. Darling I'm not so sure about - he was doing Washington Nationals telecasts last season, and while his analysis was good, he wasn't very exciting to listen to - I can see him slipping into "unbelievable" territory this season. I'm going to be watching for the overuse of "unbelievable" this year - and hopefully eliminate it from my own vocabulary - unless something truly "unbelievable" happens. (In case you're wondering what would be a proper use of "unbelievable", I mentioned the Cardinals' comeback/Albert Pujols' home run in the Game 5 of last year's NLCS. That is a truly "unbelievable" event - because no one saw it coming. We need to save the word for those types of situations!)

'86 METS ROUNDUP: In the season's first installment of the '86 Mets Roundup, Darling, Sid Fernandez, Howard Johnson, Tim Tuefel, and Mookie Wilson will all be at Shea Stadium Sunday morning at 9am, when individual game tickets go on sale.

ONE MORE THING: This afternoon I was watching some of the NFL Network's coverage of this weekend's scouting combine (more on that here), and I was thinking that if there was an MLB Network, I would never change the channel. Imagine - coverage of all the different spring training sites this time of year....non-stop coverage of the hot stove...classic baseball games to fill the gaps...get going on this Bud Selig!

Being a teacher in my non-blogging life, I am on vacation - February break. The beauty of February break is twofold. One, I don't have to go to work. Two, it coincides with the very beginning of spring training, so it is the perfect time for me to start up the ol' Mets site, and start talking baseball.

Clearly, Omar Minaya reads the blog (Hi Omar!), as he did not trade for Manny Ramirez, and had the good sense not to throw his hat into the Sammy Sosa ring (OK, maybe it didn't take that much sense, considering Sosa is a disaster waiting to happen on some unsuspecting team [read: Nationals], but if Minaya really did have a predisposition towards Latino ballplayers, at least he only picks the ones who don't stink, and who don't cheat, and who are actually pretty good.). I may not have addressed the Sammy Sosa thing, but I was pretty adamant that he not acquire Ramirez, so it is clear that not only Minaya reads the blog, but also that he can read my mind.

Where to start....where to start.....how about the mailbag?

"Dear JohnnyMets,

I think that this is the year for the Mets. I don't necessarily think they'll win it all this year, but I think this is their best chance. Young talent coming into its own, finally a stable bullpen, and a starting rotation that realizes it has just one more chance.

Thoughts?

Dave in Brighton"

Ah, good old Dave, e-mailing in the dead of winter. Yes, this appears to be the year for the Mets. Let's take a look at the position players, and the rotation, to consider my thoughts, and leave the middle relief for another day, because that's still sort of a mess.

C: Paul LoDuca
1B: Carlos Delgado
2B: Kaz Matsui for now, with Bret Boone invited to spring training, and watch out for Jeff Keppinger!
SS: THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED, Jose Reyes
3B: Future Hall of Famer David Wright
OF: Cliff Floyd, Carlos Beltran*, and Victor Diaz/Xavier Nady

P: Pedro Martinez*, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel, Victor Zambrano, Aaron Heilman
Closer: Billy Wagner

Second base is wide-open right now - and I think Keppinger stands a very good shot at making the major league roster, and even unseating Matsui. Here's why. At the end of the 2004 season, Keppinger played very well in the call-up playing time he got. He hit .284, even popped 3 HR's, in 116 at-bats. He was off to a very good start in Triple-A last year, but got taken out at second on what was called a "dirty slide" by either manager Ken Oberkfell or hitting coach Howard Johnson while trying to turn a double play. It messed up his knee, and he missed the rest of the year. Well, I think we will be keeping a close eye on Keppinger this spring, here on johnnymets.blogspot.com, because I think he could be the Mets' second baseman.

Other than second base, the only unsettled position is right field. Victor Diaz played well last year, getting his first extended Major League action, but the Mets traded Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady, and you better believe it's Nady's position to lose. Diaz's defense is questionable, and he has options left, so he faces an uphill battle to win the spot - where Willie Randolph says he'd rather not use a platoon.

The pitching rotation is solid.....but not deep. I've said it before, I really wish Aaron Heilman could keep coming out of the bullpen, because he was so reliable in that role last year. But the trade of Jae Seo (see posting below) means Heilman is all but assured of the number five spot in the rotation, and the trade of Kris Benson means there isn't much depth. This is something I will talk about more as the season goes on, but the last thing I want to say is I do NOT think Pedro Martinez*'s toe is something to get upset about. He's been drumming it up for a while, and while he says he wants to play in the World Baseball Classic, I don't think he really does, and I don't think the Mets want him to. So there is a legit problem with the toe, but I think it will be OK for him to pitch, and pitch effectively, come April.

As spring training progresses, I'll talk more about the Mets' roster and the players fighting for roster spots. For now, I'll give spring training updates:

--The Mets have their first full-squad workout on Thursday.
--David Wright has lightened his workload this year, so hopefully he won't go stumbling into the All-Star break like he did last year - fatigue was blamed for his slump in early July. He's taking less grounders after team workouts, and not as much batting practice. This should pay off, especially when you consider Wright should be making the All-Star team this year, instead of getting that time off (the secret's out - Wright's a star).
--By the way, Chipper Jones' son, Shea, is sick, and in the hospital, so there's a chance he might not play in the World Baseball Classic. If it turns out he does not play, Wright will be taking over Jones' spot, and that means he could be facing an even longer season of competitive ball.

The final note for today is that 2006 is the 20th anniversary of the 1986 World Champion Mets. The Mets have a nice patch that I think they'll be wearing on their sleeves commemorating the anniversary, and they also have different events throughout the year celebrating the '86 team. The celebrations culminate with an August 19th matchup with the Colorado Rockies where the entire team (hopefully, for my sake) will reunite. Some players will be easy to find - especially Hall of Famer Gary Carter, who was promoted from his successful Gulf Coast Mets stint (37-16 in his first year) to the Florida State League, still in the Mets' organization. He replaces fellow '86 Met Tim Teufel, who says he's taking a year off from baseball.

Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez will be in the Mets' broadcast booth - both will divide time as color analysts on the Mets' new network, SNY (which better be picked up by DirecTV). Also, Roger McDowell replaces Leo Mazzone as the Atlanta Braves' pitching coach this year - he will probably be unavailable for the reunion.

Needless to say, along with this year's Wright Watch and Kid's Kids features, there will be an '86 Mets Roundup on johnnymets.blogspot.com, and I'll try to keep you posted on as many of the '86 Mets as I can keep track of.

The rotation. This is going to be one of the Mets' strengths this year. It's really outstanding. Before I comment further on the '05 Mets pitching staff, I turn to an e-mail from Dave in Brighton, which has been sitting in the johnnymetsmailbox for more than a month:

"Dear JohnnyMets,

NESN is replaying the 1986 World Series this week (after broadcasting the '75 Series last week, and before they show the '04 ALCS and WS starting next week).

Seeing Ron Darling on the mound prompted me to wonder:
Which was/is the stronger rotation...'86 Mets or '05 Mets?

Darling ---------- Martinez
Gooden --------- Glavine
Fernandez ----- Anna Benson's husband
Ojeda ------------ Zambrano
Aguilera --------- Trachsel

And a follow-up question. If you think this team is stronger, and since pitching wins championships, do you think the Mets are World Series bound this fall?

Dave in Brighton"

This, I think, is one of my favorite e-mails ever on the site. I never get tired of talking about the 1986 Mets. I'm going to re-match-up the rotations here, for comparison's sake.

Gooden was the '86 ace - he started Game 1 of the NLCS - if the Mets are in the postseason this year (maybe when??), you better believe Pedro Martinez* is out there.
So #1 - Gooden-----------Martinez*

Let's make #2 - Ojeda---------Glavine

Then #3 - Darling------------Benson

And #4 - Fernandez----------Zambrano

Then #5 - Aguilera---------Trachsel

Besides the obvious differences (ages, like the youth of the '86 Mets' staff, and the relative age of the '05 staff [average age = 33]), I think this is a fair matchup.

I think Gooden in 1986 was more dominant than Pedro Martinez* will be in 2005. That said, Gooden never pitched too well in that post-season, and Martinez* has had some of his greatest performances in the playoffs. So with the goal being a World Series championship, this matchup is a tie.

Bobby Ojeda and Tom Glavine are similar in that they don't overpower hitters - but they are both effective lefthanded pitchers. Let's take a look at the career numbers:

Ojeda - 15 yrs., 115-98, 3.65 ERA, 1128 K's
Glavine - 18 yrs., 262-171, 3.44, 2145 K's

Ojeda's season-high in strikeouts was 148, Glavine's was 181. I'm giving Glavine the edge here, because in his 18th season, he showed he still had something left. Also, he's a potential Hall of Famer, Ojeda was just a solid pitcher.

I think Ron Darling has the edge over Kris Benson now, but I'm looking forward to a full season of Benson with a good team. If he still produces a .500 record and an ERA over 4.20, then I'll believe he's an average to below-average pitcher.

Sid Fernandez and Victor Zambrano is a tough one, because there's not much to go on with Zambrano, and El Sid was actually pretty tough to beat in '86 through '89. I think Zambrano will be better this season than he's been in his career to this point (he's supposed to have a lot better control this season), but Zambrano's health issues give the edge to Fernandez here. (Come to think of it, this wasn't a tough one...it was actually pretty easy to call.)

Finally, Rick Aguilera and Steve Trachsel. Aguilera was never the most effective starter (hence the move to the bullpen after he was traded to Minnesota), and Trachsel hasn't had the most impressive career. But if you look at pitching careers with the Mets, you have to give the edge to Trachsel - if the Mets weren't so bad the past couple of years, Trachsel could have had one or two 20-win seasons. I give the edge to Trachsel here. (In the interest of full disclosure, a friend of mine and I have our doubts as to whether Trachsel would have pitched as well as he has the past few years if the Mets were competitive. We think he isn't a pressure pitcher. I guess we'll find out this year).

So if you break down my breakdowns, it's 2-2-1. A tie. Wow that worked out well. I seriously did not try to fix it that way. I do honestly think these pitching staffs match up very well. Whether that leads to a world championship for the '05 Mets or not remains to be seen (although it's all I got to root for this year), but here's the X-factor. Let's look at pitching coach.

Mel Stottlemyre was the Mets' pitching coach in 1986. He's been one of the best in that position in the majors for a couple of decades now. But the '05 Mets have one of the greatest pitching coaches of all time - Rick Peterson. This guy is unbelievable. This is one of the reasons I feel so strongly about the Mets' pitchers this year. He firmly believes he can fix Victor Zambrano's problems on the mound, and I have no reason to doubt him. I also think Peterson, having a full season to work with Benson, will make Benson a much better pitcher. And he sure can't hurt Martinez*. So maybe the presence of Peterson puts the '05 Mets over the top.

I do believe this year's pitching staff can take the Mets far. And if the hitters support the pitchers (the lack of which was the major reason for last year's disaster), getting them to the playoffs, imagine what kind of staff the Mets can throw out there in a short post-season series, and how much stronger the bullpen gets when at least one of the starters turns into a reliever. The bullpen as it stands could be a potential problem....I'll try to give an update on that later in the week.

Wednesday is e-mail day....so Tuesday night is the deadline to get your e-mails in. One more thing - the reference to Anna Benson's husband...and maybe this is a personal note to Dave in Brighton. Since you wrote that more than a month ago, I wonder, since Mike Piazza has gotten married now, if they announce the battery on days Benson pitches as:

"Anna Benson's husband throwing to Alicia Rickter's husband". Or is that just how you announce it?

Oh, another one more thing...bashing Dave has just reminded me that he will be filing a report for Thursday's blog on Wednesday's televised spring training opener. Thanks, Dave, for being a team player! We'll save you a spot at the DirecTV-sponsored bar when the DirecTV kicks in (end of March).

Here's hoping there's no school tomorrow...........