SWITCHING PLACES

A quick update on what I think are some of the more interesting off-season moves, not only of players going from team-to-team, but movement within teams.

FROM RELIEF TO ROTATION - these are 3 pitchers making the switch from the bullpen to the starters role this season.

The Jonathan Papelbon move has been well-documented. I wonder whether pitching every fifth day helps his arm, rather than working almost everyday, or if he's hurt by the number of pitches per start he'll be throwing. I think he'll be fine - it's the Red Sox' closer position I'd be worried about if I was a Red Sox fan. Papelbon was soooo good in that role last year. He struck fear in other teams - something that's been missing from that position at Fenway in the past.

This one should be interesting - everyone's favorite former Mets closer, Braden Looper, is part of an experiment in St. Louis, most likely titled, "How to Destroy A Championship Team". Looper is being moved into the rotation - I can't imagine, if he couldn't fool teams coming into games late, how he's going to do against teams facing batters more than once per game.

Then there's Adam Wainwright, who did such a spectacular job closing out games for the Cardinals during the post-season, but is no longer needed as a closer because of Jason Isringhausen's return. Wainwright is also expected to get a shot at starting...if I'm a Cardinals fan, I'd rather see Wainwright in there than Isringhausen at the end of games, based on Isringhausen's performance and the way he's looked on the mound in the past couple of years.

OLD FACES, NEW PLACES

I've mentioned this before, but I'll continue to root for Mike Piazza as long as he's playing. This year, Piazza finally finds himself on an American League team - the Oakland A's - meaning he's going to be a DH for the majority of the year. (There is a possibility he'll get some time behind the plate - possibly even some time at first base!) It will be interesting to see how his bat responds to the new role, even if it is at cavernous McAfee Coliseum.


I'll bring this up again when I make my picks, but the Texas Rangers have become a chic pick to be good this season (perhaps it's because Buck Showalter is no longer with them, and every team Showalter has left has won a championship the year following his departure). I don't think the Rangers will win the West, but I will be keeping an eye on the once-dominant, now-very-fragile, Eric Gagne, and whether or not he can return to form. Or, at the very least, stay healthy.


When Juan Pierre is your number two hitter, you have a good lineup. Such is the case for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who will have Pierre hitting behind Rafael Furcal. The Dodgers improved their team this off-season, I can't say much more than that. Pierre and Furcal at the top of the lineup could mean a lot of early leads for Los Angeles this season.



COMMENT COMMENTS: The Southern Bureau left a note detailing a few of Oliver Perez's other, not-so-successful starts. I didn't bring up the horrid numbers, because I figured the ERA spoke for itself regarding how bad those starts were. My point remains - I'm not sure he's too much worse than Trachsel in the rotation - there were times when Trachsel hurt the team and taxed the bullpen. Bottom Line: I hope Dave in Brighton's unfailing confidence in Oliver Perez prevails over the Southern Bureau's negative experiences.

OLIVER!

I didn't expect to write tonight, but I'm working on the theory here that another blog entry will take my mind off of going back to school tomorrow.

I have it in my head that Oliver Perez is no worse in the Mets' rotation than Steve Trachsel. I'm thinking that, had he pitched for a better team in 2006, Perez's record would not have been 3-13 (2-10 in 15 starts with Pittsburgh). Of course, Steve Trachsel gave up a lot of runs in 2006 as well, but finished with a 15-8 record. Here's how the two compare overall in the 2006 season:

I had to throw in the post-season, because Steve Trachsel failed the Mets horribly in that department, while Perez stepped up big-time. But I digress.

I'm not going to break down each of Perez's 15 starts with Pittsburgh, but I will highlight five:
1) Opening Day, in a 5-2 loss at Milwaukee, Perez gave up one run (earned) in 5-and-a-third innings. He ended up with a no-decision.
2) and 3) In back-to-back starts in May, at Arizona and at home against Houston, Perez got two no-decisions in two very good performances. At Arizona, Perez gave up 0 runs in 6 innings of work, and vs. Houston he gave up 2 runs (both earned) in 8 innings. Pittsburgh lost both games (4-3 and 5-4), and Perez didn't factor in those decisions, as I mentioned.
4) In June, Perez and the Pirates lost to St. Louis 2-1, after a 7-inning, 2-run performance by Perez.
5) In his next start, Perez went 7-and-two-thirds innings against Minnesota, giving up 4 runs, but only 1 was earned, in an 8-2 loss.

Now, it's generous, given the final score of that Minnesota game, but again, we're talking pitching well enough to win on a good team. If you take these five starts, and reverse the outcome, factoring in pitching on a better team, Perez is suddenly 7-8. It doesn't change his awful ERA (6.63 in those Pirates starts), but it shows that having Oliver Perez in your rotation is not a bad thing.

Also consider the fact that with the Pirates, Perez was the number one guy, and often was matched up against the opponents' number one starter. With the Mets this year, he'll get the chance to start anew, and in the back end of the rotation. If he gets off to a good start, and builds up his confidence....maybe that's what he's needed to recapture the flashes he showed early in his career (spotlight on 2004 with Pittsburgh: 12-10 with a 2.99 ERA in 30 starts).

As for Trachsel, I didn't break down his starts like I did Perez's, but having watched nearly all of his starts last year, I KNOW that there are quite a few that could have gone the other way, leaving him with a lot less than 15 wins if he was with a lesser team. (Hello, Baltimore and American League hitters!)

Bottom line - I'm excited to see how Oliver Perez fares this year. If a couple of the Mets' potential starters do as well as they are capable of (Perez, Glavine, maybe one of the young guys like Pelfrey or Humber, or even John Maine), the rotation may not be the problem people are making it out to be.

ODDS AND ENDS

Seeing as how I'm not sure when the next time I'll be able to update will be (keep checking back - you never know when it'll be - it'll be a fun surprise!), a couple of the more time-sensitive issues that I've been meaning to get around to:

-From winter ball, some good news. Anderson Hernandez discovered his stroke. After hitting .246 in the minors last season, and .152 with the Mets, the second base prospect hit at a .287 clip during the winter ball season. He also hit .310 in 6 games of what I think is the equivalent of the winter ball post-season. We'll watch to see if he carries that type of hitting into spring training. I think that would be important because I'd much rather see Anderson Hernandez and his glove at second than Jose Valentin, who I don't feel so good about as the Mets' regular second baseman this year.

-The Mets did not tender a contract to Victor Zambrano back in December, making him a free agent. There were rumors the Mets would re-sign Zambrano at a later date, but he ended up signing with Toronto. That officially makes the Scott Kazmir trade a disaster (as though there were any doubt), and if Zambrano comes back strong from Tommy John surgery with the Blue Jays, look for lots more criticism headed Rick Peterson's way. I feel Peterson could be doing a better job for the Mets...at least, the Zambrano thing was a huge failure on his part.

-On the subject of Peterson, he was one of seven coaches the Mets locked up under contract this off-season. Peterson got a three-year deal, third base coach Sandy Alomar, bullpen coach Guy Conti, hitting coach Rick Down, and bench coach Jerry Manuel all got two-year extensions, and newcomers Howard Johnson (first base coach) and Tom Nieto (catching instructor) got one-and-two-year deals, respectively.

HoJo beat out Gary Carter (among others) for the first base coaching job. Remember, Manny Acta has left the staff to be the Nationals' manager.

-Finally, another Blue Jays connection: John Thomson also signed with the Blue Jays, after receiving overtures from the Mets as another possible arm for the pitching staff. And after he turned down the Mets because he didn't want to pitch to Paul LoDuca or for a team with Cliff Floyd in the outfield. Wow. Talk about taking shots. I don't remember LoDuca having a response to that, a little surprising, since he can be a hothead.

Floyd, though, shot back, saying from Cubs camp last week, "From what I've seen, he's not one of the greatest pitchers in the game. It didn't really affect me in terms of my pride....People who talk a lot seem to always be on the short end of the stick. I wish him the best of luck. Hopefully, his luck can change in Toronto because it didn't change in the National League." Nice job, Cliff. Well said.

Thomson did make 9 starts for the Mets, incidentally, in 2002, going 2-6 with a 4.31 ERA.

FLASHBACK: I've mentioned many times how my mom is cleaning out lots of my old stuff as my parents renovate their house. Recently, I got a bunch of stuff, and I just went through some of it today. Among the books were a few years' worth of the old Topps Sticker Yearbooks. I remember my brother and I competing over stickers to fill every page. Fun stuff. Surprisingly, the price was just 35 cents. And I was going through the 1987 edition, and came across the 1986 World Series page. Thought it was a good excuse to use the new scanner at the House sponsored by DirecTV. So here it is:

AGE APPROPRIATE

El Duque has arthritis. Let the age jokes begin.

Tom Glavine forgets things.

Moises Alou hates when he misses the early-bird special.

Julio Franco is incontinent.

I guess El Duque's injury isn't a threat to him during the regular season, but it is a reminder of how fragile the Mets' pitching situation is. These guys are old (relatively speaking), and the injuries can pile up fast in that case.

This was actually the subject of one of the ESPN blogs today (thanks, Southern Bureau), and how difficult it would be for the Mets to get a front-line starter should Tom Glavine get injured, or even El Duque.

There is bound to be an injury to the Mets' pitching staff this year, but I don't think it will cripple the team. I think we need to remember that the Mets were in a similar situation last year, and it didn't affect them at all. (13 starters over the course of the season, and they still ran away with the division.) And let's remember that things got even worse in the post-season, and Steve Trachsel notwithstanding, pitching was the Mets' strength in the playoffs.

The other thing to remember is that as poor in pitching as the Mets are this year, other teams are worse off. Pitching is tough to come by these days, and the Mets have a good stockpile of arms. The problem, for you pessimists out there, is that the teams that are better off in the pitching department reside in the National League East...the Marlins and the Phillies. We'll just have to see if the Mets can outhit all of their opponents if the pitching proves to be a worst-case scenario.

Sadly, my February vacation is coming to a close. I still have many things to write about, but less time to do so. I want to touch on: the Mets coaches, the off-season deals, and my pre-season picks, among other things. Please keep checking back, although my postings will be inconsistent. Thanks.

ROLLINS WITH THE PUNCHES

The big news out of spring training on Wednesday and Thursday was Jimmy Rollins' proclamation that the Phillies are the team to beat in the National League East, and the Mets' reaction to that claim. The Mets did just what a Mets fan would hope they would do - they laughed off the comment, and said the matter would be decided on the field, implying that the Mets are the defending division champs, and the Phillies would have to prove it to them.

I do think the Phillies are better this year, but I don't necessarily think they are better than the Mets. (In past years I felt very strongly that the Phillies don't scare me - but this year I may change that tune....but, again, they'd have to show me something on the field, which is what their problem has been in past years. Good on paper, not good in actuality.) As I wrote a couple of days ago - the difference this year is that the Mets won't be running away with the division - there will be some competition.

So Jimmy Rollins spoke out, David Wright put him in his place - just for kicks, here's a breakdown of the two players involved in this war of words (please click on the picture so you can actually read the darn thing):

HOW TO READ A BASEBALL PREVIEW, JOHNNYMETS.BLOGSPOT.COM STYLE

Manny Ramirez is reporting late to camp due to a family issue...that can only mean it's time for me to be reading my baseball preview.

I picked up the Street & Smith's Baseball Preview the other day, and I'm really flying through it this year. Usually it's torturous, because I go from team to team, and make notes for fantasy baseball as I read. This year, it's only reading, no writing, so I'm really flipping through the magazine.

#1. So the first step is to figure out which baseball preview to get. The only one that was out when I was at the store was Street & Smith's, so that's what I got. I went to my bookshelf (for some reason I keep the old magazines), and I had been on a long streak of "The Sporting News" baseball previews until last year...last year, for some reason, I didn't get a baseball preview. So usually it's The Sporting News for baseball, Street & Smith for football. This year I bucked that trend.

#2. Before I dive into the team previews, I like to read the articles, just to get a sense of what to look out for this year. Sometimes there are players highlighted, sometimes milestones within reach...this year, there was a feature on Daisuke Matsuzaka, as well as a story on pitchers over 40 (that hit close to home for the Mets). So I read a couple of those.

#3. Then the team previews. This is a multi-faceted process. The first thing, before the team previews, there is usually a division preview. So I read that for the division I'm about to take on. Then I read the breakdowns, team-by-team, within that division. In past years I have read all of the division previews first, then skip around from team to team until I've read all 30. Not this year.
-What I am doing this year is this - I read all of the American League: East, Central West. But for the National League, I start with the West, then go to the Central, then I save the East for last, so I have something to look forward to. Because if I read about the Mets first, I lose interest in the rest of the teams fast.
(In case you haven't already come to this conclusion, I have strange habits.)

#3a) So I don't just read the team previews - there's a strategy to this as well. I read all of the little sidebars first. I start with the prospects report (Street & Smith's has a really good one this year - the top 10 prospects in each organization). Then I go to the scout's view on a player. Then I read the actual preview article. Then I read the small little stat boxes they give you....then I read the opposing scout's view of the team as a whole.

#3b) Now, here's the weirdest part, but for me, one of the most fun - the last thing I do before I turn the page on a team is look at the players' birthdays. The main thing I look for is 7/7, my birthday, then 8/11, The Wife's. Now, I also keep an eye out for 10/2, The Baby's birthday. Whenever I see 4/8, it also catches my eye, because that's Gary Carter's birthday (and it also happens to be Dave in Brighton's birthday).

So that's how I read a baseball preview magazine. I realized as I was reading today that I read it strangely. My question for you, and I invite your comments, is, how do you read your baseball previews? (My obsessive-compulsiveness, I think, is what has led me to develop this system, because I feel an urge to read every word on the page - even the little stats.)

NOW THE INTERESTING STUFF: If you glazed through most of the above, I ask you to read that last paragraph, just above, so at least you can comment on how you read baseball previews. But here are a couple of things I've gleaned from this year's baseball preview:

-I'm not going to get into my picks yet, but Street & Smith's picks the Phillies to win the NL East, with the Mets getting the NL Wild Card.
-They also pick the Red Sox over the Dodgers in the World Series. Again, my picks will come as the season gets closer.
-Here's a real interesting thing...for some reason, one of the little sidebars in the magazine is each organization's "Best-Ever Shortstops", and they rank the top 3. I was really struck by the Red Sox' page:
#1: Joe Cronin (fine, Hall of Famer, retired number)
#2: Rico Petrocelli (OK, fan favorite, fine)
#3: Rick Burleson

What? Where's Nomar? For that matter, what about Johnny Pesky? He's still with the organization for crying out loud. The Pesky thing doesn't bother me nearly as much as the omission of Nomar, though - that's just horrible. He's their best shortstop ever. Period. OK, actually, I just looked up Cronin's numbers. Wow. He is indeed their best-ever shortstop. But Nomar has to come next. I don't care about longevity. He's better than Petrocelli and Burleson combined...and keep in mind, I don't even care for Nomar all that much.

AND FINALLY...: Usually, I have a west coast team that I root for, so that with the baseball package, after the Mets game is over, I can switch over and watch my west coast team into the early morning hours. In past years, I have found the Angels to be a fun team to watch (although their broadcasters bother me), so it's been the Angels that I prefer. This year, though, despite a boring brand of baseball, I might be tuning in the Oakland A's as often as I can. I just enjoy rooting for Mike Piazza that much - I am very excited for him to be getting a chance to DH this year. I think he'll have a good year, and I want to watch as many of his at-bats as I can. The other interesting thing about Piazza this year is that the A's want to rest Jason Kendall more...so maybe Piazza gets back behind the plate? There's also a chance Piazza will get some time at first base - the A's have a bit of a question mark there. But he's going to primarily be a DH - and I want him to do well.

METS BOOK REVIEW

I'm going to spend a bit of time today writing about how I spent part of my off-season:

Last year at about this time, New York Daily News Mets beat writer Adam Rubin put out a book (seen at the right) called "Pedro, Carlos, and Omar". The book is about the Mets' pursuit of, and free agent signings of, Pedro Martinez* and Carlos Beltran*. It also recapped the 2005 season. I did not read this book last year. But I was in Barnes & Noble about a month ago, and saw an updated version of the book, and bought it. And read it. It was OK.

The version of the book I have is called, "Pedro, Carlos & Carlos! and Omar", and it adds the addition of Carlos Delgado in 2006, after the Mets' failed negotiations with him the previous year. It also recaps some of the 2006 season, mainly the highlights.

I'm going to try not to be too critical, because I have never written a book like this, so I don't know how one goes about doing this. But I found this book to be awfully repetitive. Events were repeated over and over from chapter to chapter. Part of me wonders if it is because parts of the book were excerpted and printed in the Daily News, so Rubin repeated himself at times so the excerpts would make sense, but that strikes me as an odd way to approach a book. Another problem I had with the book was that there was a factual error in it, and anytime I see one factual error, it leads me to believe there are others which I may not have caught. In this case, it wasn't a baseball error, but it was in reference to the Patriots winning the Super Bowl against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I can't find the error as I do my fact-checking, but it was supposed to be Philadelphia Eagles, not the Steelers. I can't remember the context even...but that's carelessness. I have plenty of mistakes on my blog...but a blog isn't a book. Maybe I'm critical because I'm jealous that this guy put out a book on something I could have put out a book on. But if I put out the book, I know I wouldn't have two AFC teams facing each other in the Super Bowl.

The last complaint I have is that too many times Rubin refers to himself. "I asked him after the game...", "He told me.....". That bothers me. Don't throw yourself into a story. I don't care that you were talking to him, I just care what he said.

Other than those errors, the book let me re-visit what was a pretty entertaining 2005 season. The pain of Braden Looper, though, was a constant in the book. That was not fun. Pedro* got robbed so many times that year because of Looper - right from the very start - Opening Day. And my ill-fated VCR plan. (Not in the book.)

The final thing I will say about the book is that I remember it being billed as the pursuit of free agents Martinez* and Beltran*. One or two chapters talk about that...then it's a recap of the season.

Bottom line - save yourself some money, go through the Daily News archives, and you'll be getting the same information. (Or better yet, go through the 2005 johnnymets.blogspot.com entries!)

E-MAIL: Our first e-mail of the 2007 season comes from a true-blue (though mostly negative) Mets fan, Steve from Queens:

"Johnnymets -

I am glad that you are back to writing about the Mets. Hopefully this will be a fun filled season from start, but more importantly, to FINISH.

Just wondering your thoughts on the other team in NY. What do you make of the A-Rod and Jeter, no longer best friends, thing? I personally think A-Rod is crazy for saying the things he said to the media. "That he and Jeter don't go out to eat 4 or 5 times a week anymore". or that he doens't sleep over Jeter's home anymore. What is going on here. A-Rod has 25 million new friends a year and he is waisting people's time talking about how he and Jeter aren't what they used to be? I just don't get it. Please share your thoughts with us.

By the way, I love that the press on the Yankees is about those two, while the press on the Mets is about how players on the team thinks they can win the World Series this year and on Beltran trying to steal more bases.

See ya

Steve from Queens."

Yeah, good stuff from the Mets on Monday - Beltran* spoke about how he wants to try to run more, and Willie Randolph said he thinks Beltran* could give THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED, Jose Reyes, a run for his money in the steals department. The Mets are talking baseball, the Yankees are talking "Best Friends Forever".

It is just strange that this is what A-Rod talks about to the media -the relationship between him and Jeter. There must have been some kind of fight over a girl or something somewhere along the line that caused these two to have some sort of rift, and A-Rod is still sore about it, and felt the need to take a dig by mentioning this to the media on Monday. Weird. I no longer live in New York, but I follow the sports pages there pretty closely, and I didn't think the Jeter/A-Rod friendship was on many people's minds this week. I could be wrong.

And then why would you mention sleeping over each other's houses? That's an unnecessary part of the whole equation that we could do without knowing. What are you, 11-year-old girls? Or professional ballplayers?

RESPONSE TO COMMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN BUREAU: I think the Southern Bureau mis-read my NASCAR bit...or I mis-wrote it. I wrote that before the scoring was out, so I anticipated being in the middle of the pack, based on my Daytona 500 drivers versus everyone else's. I think the Southern Bureau thought I meant I was comparing my drivers over the course of the season. This is because I am actually in last place after the Daytona 500...a shocking and unexpected development. Thanks for your concern, Southern Bureau, but I am well aware of the rules. And I will make my move next week.

THE PITCHING ROTATION...RIGHT WHERE WE LEFT OFF

When we last left the Mets, Pedro Martinez* was hurt, El Duque was out, and John Maine and Oliver Perez were forced to make starts in some of the biggest Mets games in history. Not much has changed.

At least El Duque is healthy now. The Mets rotation is one of the battles to watch this spring. Here's the sure thing - Tom Glavine begins the year as the Mets' number one guy. El Duque will be behind him (the Mets re-signed Hernandez to a 2-year deal, despite his 42 years of age, over the off-season). The Mets actually had El Duque under contract before Glavine - finally re-signing Glavine after originally declining his option. So the top of the rotation is the bottom of the age chart. Then it's likely that Maine and Perez take the 3-4 spots. That leaves quite a battle for the number 5 spot.

The candidates are Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey (my two favorites, or at least who I'm rooting the hardest for), Jorge Sosa, Aaron Sele, and Chan Ho Park. Among others. (Jason Vargas's name comes up every now and again, and there's also Dave Williams, but he's having an injury right now.)

There are positive and negative ways to look at this pitching situation. The negative is that the Mets' two best pitchers are on the wrong side of 40, and no one is really great. But as far as I can see, that's the only negative.

The positives include:

• The Mets have depth at pitcher, something that served them well last year when they came within a pitch of the World Series. Last year the Mets started 13 different pitchers - that's a rare thing when you consider teams on the other end of the rare spectrum, suffering no injuries, would just start 5. This year, look for something in the middle - there will be injuries, but the Mets have the manpower to get through them.
• There's no Steve Trachsel. I've been down on Trachsel for years - he's had flashes of good pitching, but never showed he could do it on the big stage. When he finally got the big stage last year, he couldn't perform. So now he's in Baltimore. And the Mets have a guy like Oliver Perez in his place, who could pitch just as well (or perhaps as poorly) as Trachsel, maybe even better, and rely less on run support, and turn his career around. (Or recapture some of his early flashes of success.)
• As much as Glavine and Hernandez represent the "old", there's the potential for plenty of "new" for the Mets in the rotation as well. John Maine and Oliver Perez are 26. Philip Humber is 25. Mike Pelfrey is just 23. So there are some kids on the staff who could be the core of the Mets' rotation for years, to go along with the great left side of the infield. As a matter of fact, I think that's the biggest positive - Pelfrey and Humber could be the Mets' future 1-2. Before he hurt his elbow, the Mets considered Humber to be a future star. And Pelfery has shown what he can do at the major league level. It's exciting to watch these guys grow, and give the Mets a nice home-grown core, without the hype that can damage some youngsters.
• My final point is that come late July or August, the Mets will get a brand-spanking new Pedro Martinez*. It'll work like a trading deadline deal, and Pedro* will re-join the staff, and rejuvenate the team. At least that's the way I like to think of it. He will have had plenty of time to rehab, unlike last year, when he came back and was ineffective. It will have been a year and a couple of months since teams saw the real Pedro*. He will give the Mets a big boost heading into the playoffs, and then to look forward to '08, he will be fresher in what might be the final year of his career.

As negative as I was in my last posting, I do feel like the Mets can succeed this year. And the points about the rotation that I've laid out above are a big reason why. Another big part is the offense, which I touched on in that last posting. But for the regular season, at least, the Mets' pitching should be good enough to get by. The Mets will again win many games with their bats this year.

THE BEGINNING OF A CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON?

Here we go, the 2007 baseball season - one that would be a disappointment if the Mets are not the World Series champions at the end. I have to start with something that may surprise you - I am not as confident in the Mets this year as I have been in past seasons.

It's not that I expect the Mets to do poorly...it's just that I wouldn't be surprised if they did. Part of the reason for this is the fact that the Mets are considered favorites to do well this year - I'm not at a point where I handle that role very well - it's better when they are underdogs. So there's that mentality.

Then there's the fact that the Mets' pitching is a mess. The lineup is great (although I have my reservations about Moises Alou - more on that later). But the pitching is a question mark, at the very least. The optimistic view is that no one has great pitching, so the Mets' hitters should again be able to bash the opponents, getting the Mets into the playoffs. The pessimistic view is that the team with the best pitching is a team the Mets will face all year long - the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies need to earn my respect (they don't scare me, remember), but I do feel this is their best chance to win anything - I think they have a better team this year than they have in years past. But the Mets are also pretty darn good. I do think the two teams from the NL East make the playoffs....but that's getting way ahead of myself. Just know that I think the Mets will face some tougher competition this year (remember, the Marlins give them trouble, too), and it won't be a runaway division title like in 2006.

I'd love to be wrong about Moises Alou - he's not getting an asterisk at this early stage of spring training, but he'll probably have one by the regular season. He needs to prove to me that he's capable. A lot of experts are saying the Mets added the right-handed bat they've needed...I'm not so sure. Better players, in my opinion, have failed under the bright lights of NYC - Alou will need to show me he can succeed at Shea.

**This has been in my head all off-season. I don't know why I didn't write this last year. I thought about it every game of the NLCS - Yadier Molina scared the crap out of me every time he came to bat. He was the only St. Louis hitter who was consistently getting to the Mets' pitchers. And he was the guy who beat them in Game 7. When he hit the homer off Aaron Heilman, it didn't surprise me. Just had to say that. I still think, with his .348 average in the series, and the way he handled the St. Louis pitchers, that he should have been the NLCS MVP. But I guess Jeff Suppan did his part.

EXCITING STADIUM NEWS: Took a quick overnight trip to Queens last weekend with The Wife and The Baby, and saw the construction going on beyond Shea Stadium. Citi Field is really taking shape. The columns that will form the entranceway (I think) are already up. It looks neat. My dad has said that they showed aerials of it, and it's taking shape that way too. I meant to take a picture on the way back to Massachusetts, but forgot. I always overestimate the amount of space needed to build a baseball field. I always think it will take more space than it does. But these ballparks fit into small spots.

FANTASY SPORTS: So in order to bridge the gap from football to baseball, my friends and I are playing fantasy NASCAR. As a result, I sat through my first NASCAR race today, the Daytona 500. And here's the shocker - I actually enjoyed it. It helped that I had certain people to root for during the race, but it was fun to watch. This will do nicely to help me get to baseball - and as I told my friends, there's a chance it may compete with some early-season baseball games on Sunday afternoons. Or at least merit switching over. As for the fantasy team, I anticipate being in the middle of the pack after comparing my drivers with the rest of the league.

HERE WE ARE AGAIN

This is a weird time of year for me. I can't really put the way I feel into words. It's the doldrums of the sports year, and it's a real downer. However, there's also the "kid at Christmas" feeling of spring training being right around the corner.

There are certain things that get me from one week to the next at this time of year. My interest in pro basketball is non-existent, and my interest in the NHL is waning. But there is college hockey, and with Boston University being consistent, that keeps me going. It helps that the first two Mondays in February are the Beanpot tournament - that helps two weeks go by. Then there's college basketball, and the NCAA tournament, but that borders on more of a sick obsession than an enjoyment for me lately, and I end up by the end of that tournament feeling like I just completed a couple of weeks of work rather than watched a sporting event that I enjoyed.

This is on my mind because suddenly there are just 4 days until pitchers and catchers report for the Mets, and that really snuck up on me. Of course, things are busier this year at the House sponsored by DirecTV than they have ever been (thanks to The Baby), and my focus has been more on next week, when I have a week off to be with her, rather than baseball season. That either makes me a bad fan or a good dad...I'm not sure.

And I guess I decided to write this as a preview to the baseball season preview I'll be writing soon. February vacation is really when I start to step up the writing, so that will be happening in a week or so. I'm also writing because I can't believe the whole off-season has gone by and I only posted a couple of off-season updates.

I have a bunch of notes that I keep to remind myself of what I want to write, so that I don't sit in front of the computer and suddenly forget. Well, the danger of that is I write the note instead of the actual posting, and I end up never writing the posting. I was ambitious enough to write right away when Barry Zito signed with San Francisco, but you will probably not read my opinion of why Derek Jeter got screwed when he was not voted the 2006 American League Most Valuable Player. Luckily, most of my notes are still relevant, and there will be postings on:

So come on back, and check the site for updates. Remember you can always e-mail at johnnymetsmail@yahoo.com, and we can post those as well. I'll be back next week as we kick off what will hopefully be a championship season...until then, I'll be rooting for a snow day and waiting for vacation.

SUPER BOWL XLI

I love the Super Bowl. I really do. I love Super Bowl history, I love that they use roman numerals, I love the commercials. I love these America's Games that the NFL Network has been running, which let you relive some great Super Bowls, and the seasons leading up to them, also including some stuff I've never seen before.

I can't imagine what it will be like when the Jets make it back to the game someday (maybe next year?), a game which has come a long way since the Jets' last appearance in III.

But I'll tell you what I don't like. I don't like two weeks of hype. I don't like rematches (which I'm sure you all know). Two Bills-Cowboys....two Redskins-Dolphins...two 49ers-Bengals...three! Steelers-Cowboys. What wastes.

Anyway, this year it's the Colts-Bears. This is a weird game, because I have no idea what is going to happen (well, that's not the weird thing - I never know what's going to happen). The weird thing is, nothing is sure - it's all wishy-washy.

I feel like there's an equal chance of:
1) Peyton Manning having the greatest game of his life, or being a total failure.
2) Rex Grossman being great or awful.
3) The Colts defense being great or awful.
4) The Colts being able to score on the Bears or being shut down.
5) The Bears putting up 0 points or 20+ points.

And many more.

But I'm going with the Colts to win something like 34-24. That means they'll hit the over on the 48.5. One other thing I like about the Super Bowl is all the prop bets - how many touchdowns will this team score, etc. I love the over/under ones. I selected a few off one of the internet sites that I will watch for this Sunday:

1) Team to score last in the game - Indianapolis
2) 2.5 total interceptions by both teams - OVER (Rex Grossman might do this by himself)
3) 131.5 rushing yards by Chicago - UNDER (A hunch on my part)

Enjoy the game, and look for consistent updates soon on johnnymets.blogspot.com.

JOHNNYJETS.BLOGSPOT.COM OFFICIALLY ENDORSES THE COLTS

This is not a pick. That will come next week. This is me throwing my hat into the Colts' ring. I want the Colts to win Super Bowl XLI.

I don't know what will happen if the Colts win. I don't know if a Super Bowl win will set them off on a tear that will result in Super Bowl win after Super Bowl win. I suspect not. But I do think Peyton Manning as an individual, and the Colts as a team, are too good to not win a Super Bowl, and I want them to win one when the Jets are not in their way. The Colts have finally gotten past the Patriots - if it doesn't happen this year, as I've written before, I'm not sure when or if it will.

So I'm rooting for the Colts over the Bears. Really, I have nothing against the Bears. I wouldn't mind seeing them win. I think Brian Urlacher gets a raw deal - all these people calling him overrated. The guy is friggin' good. He's all over the field. I don't think he's overrated at all. (His choice in women friends is dubious, but that's another story.) I don't particularly like Rex Grossman, but he's harmless. Same with the rest of the team.

But the other thing at play here is that I like the Colts. I like Peyton Manning. I know a lot of people have problems with Manning, and his ubiquity. I say, good for him. (Speaking of which - I only saw a quick shot of it at the end of the game last week, but did you see the fan in Indy who was wearing that fake hair and mustache that Manning wears in the phone commercial? I like that because the guy didn't know it was going to get him on TV, but he wore it anyway, a very subtle thing to support his team, and his reward was getting on TV. Good for him.) (Another parenthetical statement - two 'good for him''s in consecutive thought tangents...I'll try to go the rest of the way without another 'good for him'.) I also really like Tony Dungy. He seems about as genuine as they come, which is tough for a head coach in the NFL (see: Herman Edwards, Nick Saban). I also have a soft spot in my heart for Reggie Wayne, due to his fantasy football success.

There was a time growing up where I had to pick a secondary team to root for come the post-season, because the Jets were never playing. In the late 80's/early 90's that team was the Houston Oilers (I think I liked their logo), so I still have a liking for the Tennessee Titans franchise. I also like the Packers, who I picked up for most of the 90's (I love the yellow and green). If I still played this game today, and sometimes I do, because the Jets haven't had a ton of playoff success, despite being in the playoffs, I think my team would be the Colts. So this is their year, and this is my team. For one more game. Then it's back to the Jets.

3-YEAR DEAL

The Mets have a new stadium on the way. They've locked up young stars David Wright and Jose Reyes. They now have their manager under contract for three years (as well as GM), after Willie Randolph and the Mets came to an agreement on a 3-year contract on Thursday. All that's left is the championship.

I have been slow to update this site, I know. I have a bunch of off-season moves I want to discuss. I don't know if they'll happen soon, or in a few weeks when February break hits. I do know that when I start updating regularly, I won't be stopping.

So please check back once in a while and keep an eye on the site. We're only a few weeks from pitchers and catchers.

AND SO IT GOES...

The next best thing to the Jets playing in the Super Bowl is the man who's singing the National Anthem:

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

It doesn't make much sense for me to even be writing this, since 90% of the people who read it will be at my house talking to me this weekend, but here are my picks anyway:

New Orleans at Chicago: I really think the Saints are better than the Bears, but I really think home field advantage makes this much of a difference. The Saints are a dome team, and there's a reason so few dome teams have been in the Super Bowl. They lose the championship games outdoors. I'm rooting for the story of the Saints, but I'm thinking the Bears will win. Bears 27, Saints 17

New England at Indianapolis: I realize I seem biased against the Patriots, because I'm always picking against them, but I'm doing it again. They didn't necessarily win last week, the Chargers lost. They played an awful final few minutes, the Chargers did. But the Patriots get credit for pulling out the win, can't take that away from them. I don't hate Peyton Manning. Whenever the Jets aren't in his way, I root for him to win, so that people can stop talking about him not winning the big games. So I'm rooting for him this year. And I fully believe that if he doesn't win Sunday, he's never going to win a Super Bowl. It's this year or never. That's my thought. And if the Colts lose on Sunday, I'm going to start building an argument that Marvin Harrison is the worst post-season player on the Colts - not Peyton Manning. Hopefully I won't have to write that. Colts 31, Patriots 21

As for the Super Bowl matchup sheet, anything but Patriots-Bears works for me.

PLAYOFF PICKS

Had to get these on before the games get underway. Last week I was 3-1 picking the winners, 2-2 against the spreads. Just know that, before you take these picks and run with them to your local Las Vegas sportsbook, that I have no clue this weekend. I'm just making picks because I like to do it. Also know that I am doing awfully in the pool that I am in, and this could be the last you hear of it - I need to have a humongous weekend in order to get myself back in the running. That said, here are my picks:

SATURDAY

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-3.5): I'm a dope, but I like Indianapolis. I know defense is what wins championships, but I just haven't bought into the Ravens this whole season. If one home team were to lose this weekend, this would be the team. So I'm going Colts 28, Ravens 20 (but I wouldn't be surprised if it was Baltimore, 23-20). Over/Under is 41.5. I'm putting half my remaining pool money on Indy plus the points, and the over. If I win, I continue, if I lose I'm out.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-5.5): I'd go with New Orleans minus the points. I think the week off helps them a lot, they were stumbling down the stretch. I think they put on a strong performance here. Saints, 26-17. I only have 43 points there, so I guess I'm thinking under the 48.5.

SUNDAY

Seattle at Chicago (-8.5): This seems like a lot of points, but I also think Seattle is the weakest team left. And I think Chicago will play a safe game (run a lot) and win easily. I say Bears, 27-10. The over/under is 37.5. How about that. Barely under, I guess.

New England at San Diego (-4.5): My heart says San Diego easy, my head says the Patriots have a real good chance of winning this game. I will pick the Chargers by a touchdown, but it will come in the final two minutes, and it will be tight. Chargers, 31-24. The over/under is 46.5. I think there will be a lot of scoring.

I guess I'm thinking Bears-Saints and Chargers-Colts for the Championship games. That would be good for the ol' Super Bowl matchups chart. We'll see how these turn out.

POST SCRIPT: I forgot to mention one more thing about the classy coach of the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick. In the post-game press conference he almost referred to Eric Mangini as "The Guy", instead of referring to him by name. They asked about the photographer incident, and he said, "I was just trying to get to the guy....Eric...", cutting himself off halfway through the word 'guy'.

I think it's funny to imagine Bill Belichick's PR guy as Toby from 'The Office'.
Bill: I hugged Mangini, did you see that? You happy now? Everyone saw it on TV.
Toby: But...Bill....you pushed a cameraman.
Bill: He was in my way.
Toby: Yeah, but....you really shouldn't have done that.

Hours of fun right there.

A BETTER MAN THAN YOU OR I

I have some strong feelings about Bill Belichick, the former HC of the NYJ, today, one day after the Jets lost to the Patriots in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs. I realize in advance that some of this sounds like sour grapes...well, it sort of is. But it doesn't just stem from Sunday's game - it's been building up inside me since the man to the left's one-day stint as Jets head coach. Here are my rants:

The Man Doth Celebrate A Bit Too Much

Did the Patriots win the Super Bowl on Sunday, or win another Patriots-business-as-usual-first-round-playoff-game? I think it's the latter, but watching Bill Belichick at the end of the game made it seem as though the former took place. Belichick is usually a bit more reserved at the end of games than he displayed Sunday, unless the Patriots have just won the Super Bowl. Now, it's no secret that this game meant a lot to him, because he was upstaged in November by his former protege, Eric Mangini. But Belichick was showing up the Jets by whooping it up on the sidelines after Asante Samuel's interception return for a touchdown and after his team sealed the victory. He won the playoff game, but trust me - the Jets noticed Belichick's reactions and will not forget them. Speaking of celebratory moods...

He's Really Happy For You

Belichick also redefined class at the end of the game. First there was this:

Bill putting all the controversy to rest with a good ol' heartfelt hug for Mangini after a win. I'm sure he would have done the same if his team had lost. As a matter of fact, I'm sure Bill put this whole issue to bed and will never have to address it ever again, because, hey - he hugged Eric Mangini.

I did hear, however, that after the game, since he was done playing for the season, another former Jets coach, Bill Parcells, called up Belichick and was quoted as saying, "Billy, you call that a hug?":

That's just passion right there, folks.

Then, there's this, seen to the right. Because he's such a classy fellow, Belichick sought out Jets quarterback Chad Pennington to give him a handshake and congratulate him on a job well done. I give Belichick the benefit of the doubt - I bet had the Patriots lost, he would have sought out Pennington to congratulate him, too, and wouldn't have left the field in 3 seconds. He probably didn't even know cameras were trained on him when he sought out Pennington, that's how much he blindly let his heart lead him...Oh! Speaking of cameras:

Kenny Rogers and Bill Belichick Have More In Common Than Just Being My Arch-Enemies

I couldn't get a still picture, but you all saw it, and can watch it again here. This is where I am going to lose the sarcasm piece - I'm so glad, if Belichick fooled everyone at those other times, that his true colors shone through at this moment. It's HIS fault that there are a zillion cameramen waiting to see how he greets Mangini - he has no right to push this guy out of the way.

Finally, I just want to put in my two cents on the whole Belichick-Mangini thing. People have said Belichick is mad because Mangini left to take a job within the division...which other people counter by saying Belichick did the exact same thing. On Saturday night on NBC, Peter King said the thing that makes Belichick so upset is that Mangini broke an unwritten code among members of the Bill Parcells coaching tree - don't mess with my players. They say he did this by talking to members of the coaching staff, taking guys like Matt Chatham to New York, and by tampering with Deion Branch. Now, if the Branch allegations are legitimate, that's a fine reason to gripe...but I think it's the only one. I'm obviously not a football coach, but I think an unwritten rule like that is crap - you want to go out and get the best players and win - you have to be ruthless, in my opinion. If, indeed, Parcells followed that rule and waited on Vinatieri (too long, it turned out) because he wanted to give the Patriots a shot to re-sign him, he probably cost his team an NFC East title and a home playoff game. That's not smart coaching to me, that's stupid team management. I find it hard to believe these guys play by those rules - but that's what Peter King says.

And if that's how Belichick feels, he should look in the mirror. First of all, no two ways about it, he screwed the Jets in 2000. Just screwed them. And the reason he left the Jets was to get out of Bill Parcells' shadow. But then he proceeded to rebuild the Patriots with Parcells-type players. Sure, he added his own, but the veteran types were Parcells guys.

Anyway, if that's what's got Belichick so mad, so be it. It just gives the Jets extra incentive when they play the Patriots. And he didn't help his case in future matchups with his actions on Sunday.

One last thing - I can't really blame Belichick for wanting out of Parcells' shadow. Parcells treated him awfully bad. I have a friend at NFL Films these days - I recommend to him a piece on their relationship - because NFL Films has some good stuff from the late 80's, early 90's Giants, and Parcells was flat-out mean to Belichick. I saw some of it on that NFL Network special I mentioned that I saw on the '90 Giants. I'm sure there's tons more. So Belichick has a case there.

A SMALL STEP BACKWARD

The headline refers not to the direction the Jets are headed (although it is very hard for me to stay positive right now, an hour after the game has ended), but to the turning point of this football game. I can't argue the play - like Phill Simms said on the telecast - Chad Pennington wasn't throwing the ball forward, so it was either a lateral or a backward pass. Credit the Patriots for picking the ball up, and turning that into a huge play that helped put the Jets away.

I should have known the direction this game was headed right off the bat, when the Patriots scored on their first drive. The Wife had some work to do, so I had The Baby, and the Patriots scored just as The Baby spit up on my lucky sweatshirt. I should have acted right then and there to change shirts, but, silly me, I thought the spit up may have been lucky.

The Jets fell behind 7-0 quickly, then had a couple of ineffective possessions. They did force a Corey Dillon fumble deep in New England territory, and I was thinking that they needed a touchdown, but settled for a field goal. At the time, I thought they wasted an opportunity - they did, but I forgot about it quickly, because at the beginning of the second quarter, Chad Pennington hit Jerricho Cotchery for a 77-yard touchdown pass, and the Jets were suddenly up, 10-7.

On the ensuing Patriots drive, the Jets blew another opportunity - Jonathan Vilma had Tom Brady for a sack and a chance to force the Patriots to punt, but he swiped at the ball, missed, and Brady picked up first down yardage. That resulted in a Pats' game-tying field goal (after a Jets' goal line stand). What bothered me more than Vilma missing Brady was the Jets gently putting Brady on the floor after he didn't slide - they had a chance to hit a quarterback and didn't do it.

The Jets then let the Patriots drive down the field before halftime, and gave up a touchdown instead of a field goal, letting New England take a 17-10 lead at the half. I didn't feel good about that deficit, because the Jets had the lead, and had chances to have a bigger lead - I didn't feel comfortable with anything less than a two-score Jets lead...so I never felt comfortable in this game.

The Jets and Patriots traded field goals in the third quarter, then came the key play I mentioned above. Pennington tried a screen pass, with the Jets down 7, at midfield, and the pass was knocked down. Unfortunately, it was a live ball, and Vince Wilfork picked it up and moved 31 yards down the field, setting up another New England field goal, and giving the Patriots a 23-13 lead.

The Jets still had a chance, especially after cutting it to 23-16 early in the 4th, but the defense couldn't stop the run, and the Patriots blew it open from there, scoring an offensive touchdown, and then adding an interception return for a touchdown.

The Jets gave up 158 yards on the ground - not a recipe for success in the regular season, let alone the post-season.

So another season comes to a close - and it's hard to think rationally right now, but it was a successful season. Even this playoff game was a positive in that the young guys can only grow from this experience. The Jets weren't supposed to be this good - but they were. They can only improve through the draft, and maybe free agency. Personally, it stinks that the Jets lost to the Patriots, with me living in New England, but that's some motivation for next year, too. Hopefully the Jets can pick up now where they left off two years ago - realizing it's not good to take to the road in the playoffs - so go out and win the division. The thing that would make me even more mad than I am right now is if they go out next year and have a sub-.500 season, if they don't show improvement. There's no reason to think it will happen (unless Pennington gets hurt), but this team is on the upswing, and that needs to continue.

THOUGHTS: I really was psyched this morning when I saw the headline of the Boston Globe sports section - a big article on how Asante Samuel wants to get his due this off-season, but knows he won't get it from the Patriots. I thought, "That could be a huge distraction..." It wasn't. He just increased his value for other teams.....

Really strange seeing a playoff game in New England in such nice weather.

The Patriots look good right now. I really don't buy into the Chargers and the Ravens...I can't see another AFC team beating them...unless the Patriots play a sloppy game like they did a lot during the regular season.

SUPER BOWL MATCHUPS: The Giants-Eagles game is still going on, but I'm going to start writing this anyway, not sure when I'll have time this week:

We're rooting against the Ravens and Giants.
We're rooting against the Patriots and Bears or Eagles.
We're rooting for the Colts or Chargers against anyone from the NFC.
We're rooting for the Saints against anyone from the AFC.

Just an update. Oh, and if you haven't already, go look below at what I predicted for the Cowboys-Seahawks game, and then look at the final score of the game!

FINAL PLAYOFF PREVIEW

There's nothing left to do now but play the game. I'm going to get my last words in on what I think will happen this weekend, then sit back, try to concentrate on something other than football for part of Saturday, so I can write some report cards, then let my brain melt Saturday night and Sunday. First, an in-depth look at Jets-Patriots, then I'll give you all my picks for the Wild Card Round.

In the playoffs, there's plenty of motivation to win. Any extra motivation is icing on the cake, but can be used to your advantage. The Jets know that Bill Belichick has slighted his former assistant/mentee this season. They are using that as some sort of extra motivation this week, whether or not they're saying it. And Belichick knows that too - how else do you explain him suddenly becoming Mr. Nice Guy this week in the media when talking about the Jets and Eric Mangini? Mangini has played the game well, not making a big deal of Belichick making himself look like a jerk back in November, and not making a big deal out of it this week, as a matter of fact, he heaped plenty of praise upon the Patriots. I start with that not because I think it's the biggest factor this weekend, but I do think it will be A factor - and definitely a plus for the Jets.

Yesterday, I wrote about the younger players getting some playoff experience this year, at the very least. Truth is, the Jets are full of playoff veterans. There are key members of the Jets (mostly on defense, but including quarterback Chad Pennington) who made the run in the playoffs with the Jets 2 years ago. There are plenty of former Patriots, who enjoyed the same success the Jets' opponents will be pointing to on Sunday (including the Jets' current head coach). My only concern is this is a new experience for kicker Mike Nugent - but he does have big-game experience from college at Ohio State. The Jets sorely need themselves a clutch kicker - remember two years ago. But now that I think about it, the FieldTurf at Gillette Stadium must benefit the kicking game. That's good for the Jets.

Things to look for this Sunday - as I mentioned yesterday, I fully expect the Jets to spring some sort of gadget play on the Patriots. I'm thinking some sort of fake kick. Sticking with special teams, I think Justin Miller will have a huge return at some point in this game. Not sure he'll score, but he'll set the Jets up nice. I also think this will be a tight game, my heart will be racing, and I will curse the football gods for putting the Jets up against the Patriots in round one. But I'll be thanking them when it's over. JETS 22, PATRIOTS 14

THE PLAYOFF PICKS:
I'm participating in a playoff pool I join annually, which gives you 250 shares to start with, and you can bet a maximum of 75 per bet. You can bet over/unders and spreads. So I will use those spreads for these picks (I'm not sure how far off they are from the real ones):

Saturday
Kansas City at Indianapolis (-6.5): I know that people expect Larry Johnson to run all over the Colts, but I just think the Colts are the better team. I expect the Chiefs to jump out to an early lead, maybe 7-or-10- to 0, but the Colts to cruise from there. I say Colts 27, Chiefs 13. The over/under is 50.5. I'm putting $25 on the under.

Dallas at Seattle (-2.5): I originally said on this game Seahawks 24, Cowboys 10. I know very little about gambling, but I know that the bookmakers really know what they are doing. And home teams usually start out with at least 3 points in their favor. This seems like a game where the bookies are begging people to take Seattle. Therefore, I'm going with Dallas, taking the points. And I've adjusted my score. Seahawks 21, Cowboys 20. Seattle is still a tough place to win. I've got $20 on the Cowboys getting the points. The over/under here is 46.5 - I'm not touching that.

Sunday
New York Jets at New England (-8.5): I had to take the Jets with those points - even if they lose, I don't see this game being more than an 8-point spread either way. This is my big bet of the day, $75 on the Jets. The over/under is 37.5, I would think under, but I'm not touching it.

New York Giants at Philadelphia (-6.5): I think this is the surest bet of the day, that the Eagles will win. I'm not as sure about the point spread, so I'm not going there, but I am pretty sure this will be a high scorer. Eagles 34, Giants 24. Over/under is 46.5 - I like the over for $25.

So to recap, I have $145 on the line this week. Some people will blow all $250 this week - I just hope I can move into the top 3 or so, then maybe next week I'll step up the bet amounts.

One last thing regarding picks - I really like what Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN Radio do come playoff time - they do "Confidence Picks", where they rank the players they are most confident in on a given playoff weekend (they'll do quarterbacks, running backs, coaches, and defenses, I think), with the most confidence being given a 1, least given an 8, then adding up their total scores, and figuring out what teams will win that way. The problem is, I never hear the end of their show, so I never know how the system works. If I have time tomorrow during the Chiefs/Colts game, I may try it out, see if it's an accurate representation of picks.

Enjoy the games - I will have a recap on Sunday - hopefully it will be about a win...and if they lose, hopefully I'm not too upset to write. I'll try my darndest.

PLAYOFF PREVIEW #2

Why the Jets would not be here with Herman Edwards

Eric Mangini has done a great job with the Jets this year. You can't overstate that fact. Without Eric Mangini, the Jets would not be a playoff team. But it's not just because of Eric Mangini that the Jets are where they are right now.

The Jets have built themselves a fresh coaching staff - a mix of veteran coaches as well as new entries to the coaching ranks. These coaches aren't afraid to take chances, and spice up the playbook. Last year's coaching staff was.

The biggest reason for the Jets' success this year, in my opinion, isn't Eric Mangini. It's Eric Mangini AND Brian Schottenheimer. I really think Schottenheimer deserves a lot of the credit for not only catering the offense to Chad Pennington's arm, but using the other weapons at his disposal to the best of their ability. Brad Smith is one of the more exciting players the Jets have had in a long time - and Schottenheimer has been creative in using him - it's great to watch.

Herman Edwards and his guys were stale. Doug Brien cost the Jets the chance at the AFC Championship Game two years ago, but Herman Edwards helped set him up to fail. The Jets wouldn't even be in shouting distance of the playoffs if those guys were still here. Here's why - they would have tried too hard to protect Chad Pennington - they weren't risk-takers. Curtis Martin might have been allowed to play, because of a soft spot in Herman Edwards' heart. And that would have hurt Martin and the team. And the Jets would probably have finished below .500.

This fresh bunch of coaches (some of whom, incidentally, actually played for Herman Edwards - Richie Anderson, for example) has pressed all the right buttons. Martin can't play - we'll start 4 different running backs - and each one has been successful on different days. Credit the defensive staff, too - continuing to develop the Jets' young talent into a formidable presence. Kerry Rhodes should have been a Pro Bowler this year - watch out for him in years to come. Jonathan Vilma is already a force in the AFC.

If things don't go well this weekend, I will come back to this write-up to remember how promising the future is for the Jets. I've said it before - although I fully expect the Jets to be dangerous this post-season, I look at this playoff run as a bonus for the young players. They have a chance to get some playoff experience under their belts, and make more playoff runs in the future. The same goes for the young coaching staff.

PREDICTION: Tomorrow I'll get into my playoff picks, but for today I'll give you this one tease - I believe the Jets will pull off one crazy gadget play during this game to try to catch the Patriots off guard. I'm sure we'll see some kind of reverse or end around, but I'm really thinking about a fake field goal or punt...more likely the latter.

STATS: Yesterday I mentioned Tom Brady's record on turf - 22-1. I would be remiss if I didn't mention his playoff record - 10-1. Gotta respect that. He talked yesterday about how he loves this time of year...how even though the body starts to wear down, you sort of get a second wind because it's the playoffs. He would know.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR: It's Chad Pennington. Well-deserved - no one came back from a worse situation (well, unless you count the whole team of the New Orleans Saints - but that's not the way the award works) to do as well. He set a career high for yards this year, with 3,352. (Think that would have happened under Mike Heimerdinger?) Also, give Laveraues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery some credit here, too. Those guys got Pennington a lot of yards after the catch, and pulled down some clutch catches in some tough situations for him.

AND NOW, A RANT: I've been sitting on this one for a while, but I'm not unleashing it. Last year I went off on broadcasters who overuse the word "unbelievable". I don't know if it bothers me less, or if they listened to me, but the word seems to be used less. (I still hear it, mind you, because every so often I talk to the TV and ask the person if what they just observed was really unbelievable...but it seems to be less.) So now I ask for another phrase to come to an end.

The phrase is what it is. Actually, that's what it is. "It is what it is". I hate it. It is the most overused cliche right now. I've been thinking about this for years - I remember in April, 2004, having an argument with one of my cousins about this phrase - it's NONSENSE. The words have become popular in recent years, I'm sure, because they are overused by none other than Bill Belichick, and ever since the Patriots got good, it's all over the place.

Media Member: Bill, how big is this weekend's game?
Belichick: You know, they're all big. It is what it is.

Media Member: How bad does this week's loss sit with the team?
Belichick: All losses are tough. It is what it is.

Drives me nuts. To me, it seems to have originated as coachspeak, then turned into a lockerroom cliche, and then it became sports radio language. It means NOTHING! You might as well say nothing. Everything is what it is. It bothers me...a lot. I want it to go away. And don't get me started with "Threw him under the bus".