Monday, December 06, 2004

Uh-oh. No e-mail. I hope I haven't lost my two faithful readers.

I would usually do playoff picture stuff on a Wednesday, but I crunched some numbers today, and you never know when I will have the next chance to write, so I'll put this here today.

The Jets are 9-3. The Patriots are 11-1. For the Jets to have a shot at hosting playoff games, they need to win the rest of their games (at Pittsburgh, vs. Seattle, vs. New England, at St. Louis). They would need the Patriots to then go 2-2 the rest of the way (vs. Cincinnati, at Miami, at Jets, vs. San Francisco). Here's the catch, though - the Patriots two losses would have to be to the Jets (obviously), and the Dolphins, which is a Monday nighter in Miami. It's pretty darn unlikely (not the loss to the Jets - the Jets are probably all that stand between the Patriots and 15-1 - but I'm not going to say it's impossible. Nothing is impossible in the NFL. The Dolphins have suddenly found their offense, so maybe they'll play for pride in front of a national audience on their home turf and A.J. Feeley will throw for another five touchdowns.

But, you might say, even if this unlikely scenario plays out, that still leaves the Jets and the Patriots in a tie atop the division - it doesn't mean the Jets win the division. And I answer you, you're right. And you have to go deep into the tiebreakers to figure out who would win the division - here's how it would play out, if my calculations are correct (and if the season plays out like I talked about above):

1) Head-to-head: 1-1....so we go to:
2) Division: 4-2, 4-2...so we go to:
3) Common Games: 11-3, 11-3...so we go to:
4) Conference Games: 9-3, 9-3...so we go to:
5) Strength of Victory...and we try to figure out what strength of victory means.

I don't think it means margin of victory, because if it did, it would probably say "Margin of Victory"..but it doesn't, so it must mean "strength of victory". And I don't know what that is. Maybe it means record against teams with records over .500...I don't know. But it looks like the division could come down to Strength of Victory, then if that doesn't work out, it would go to strength of schedule, and the Patriots would win the division anyway, because the Jets have one of the weaker schedules in the league.

In order for all of this to play out, the Jets would need to win in Pittsburgh next week, and here's an interesting tidbit - the Jets have never won a game in Pittsburgh. The Jets HAVE beaten the Steelers, most recently last season at a snowy Meadowlands, but never in Pittsburgh. So that's a tall order, leading up to the miracle scenario playing out. Stranger things have happened. And Cincinnati is playing some good ball these days...maybe they'll upset the Patriots next week and help the Jets out even more.

I'll still post e-mails tomorrow if people are still reading my website. Also, FYI, Kathy is now number 89 in the country. She's got Dallas plus the points Monday night. I'll let you know if they cover how far up she moves.

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