HOW WILL THE JETS DO IN 2007?

(If I don't do this today, I fear it might never happen, and a graphic that took a lot of time to create will go to waste. Also, thanks to the Southern Bureau for the feedback on the site's font color - I'm trying white, since he said black was a bit hard on the eyes. I'd appreciate any feedback anyone has.)

Expectations for the Jets in 2007 are high. It's actually kind of odd...because expectations are so high, but they come with a lot of disclaimers:
-if Chad Pennington stays healthy
-if the offensive line overcomes the loss of Pete Kendall
-if Eric Mangini is able to maintain what he started last year
-and so on

My disclaimers are the same...and with these picks come some other warnings. As you can see, I pick the Jets to go 11-5 this year. That's what I think they should do...what they are capable of doing. We all know that with the Jets that what they should do, which teams they should beat, and what actually happens are not always the same. So I say this up front - I would not be surprised if the Jets lose a couple in that stretch of six straight that I have them winning. And I think the Pittsburgh and Dallas games are big "if"'s. But I also think the Jets might surprise us in the Tennessee game and maybe Baltimore. Either way, I don't think the Jets will win less than 10 games, and I think that's enough to make the post-season. Whether that results in a division win and a first round bye, though, might mean the difference between a Super Bowl run and a first-round playoff exit. Here's the breakdown:

WEEK 1 - VS. NEW ENGLAND: I think the Jets will split with the Patriots this year, and common sense tells me the Jets will win at home. But the season opener will be a tough one - both teams will be up for the game, obviously. Maybe the Richard Seymour injury and the Rodney Harrison suspension will work in the Jets' favor, though, and they will jump on a distracted Pats team.

WEEK 2 - AT BALTIMORE: The Jets always have trouble with the Ravens. That defense is always capable of literally killing Pennington. I think the Jets lose this game, especially since it's on the road, and are lucky to escape not too banged up. Otherwise the whole season could be lost in this early game.

WEEK 3 - VS. MIAMI: The Dolphins are a mess. I know when the Jets stunk and the Dolphins were competitive the Jets always gave Miami a run for their money...but there's no way the Jets should lose to the Dolphins this year.

WEEK 4 - AT BUFFALO: About the only good thing about the schedule this year is that the Jets don't play Buffalo late in the year. Weather shouldn't be too much of a factor in this game. I have the Jets penciled in for two wins against the Bills this year because of one thing - no Willis McGahee, who killed them.

WEEK 5 - AT NEW YORK GIANTS: Another good thing about the schedule this year - 9 home games, basically. The Jets should win this - I think the Giants are going to be awful. They hate their coach - I can't imagine any less motivation.

WEEK 6 - VS. PHILADELPHIA: I expect big things from the Eagles this year. Philly should win this game, even though it's at the Meadowlands. This could be one of those swing games, though. The Jets shouldn't be much worse than the Eagles.

WEEK 7 - AT CINCINNATI: Cincinnati should be better this year, and the Jets could be evenly matched. In that case, though, the advantage goes to the home team, which is the Bengals.

WEEK 8 - VS. BUFFALO: Again, no McGahee = Jets dominance.

WEEK 9 - VS. WASHINGTON: I think Washington is on the upswing, but they'll have to prove they can stay healthy, and that they have a quarterback in Jason Campbell. Until then, I say the Jets win this game.

WEEK 10 - BYE

WEEK 11 - VS. PITTSBURGH: Historically, a game the Jets can't win. Realistically, each time the Jets have played the Steelers recently, they've narrowed the gap. This is where they swing the momentum in their favor.

WEEK 12 - AT DALLAS: A tough stretch here - Thanksgiving Day against the Cowboys. Not a lot of rest after a probably tough Steelers game...and then the national audience at Dallas. I have it down as a surprise win, because the Jets will be as up for the game as the Cowboys.

WEEK 13 - AT MIAMI: Extra rest after the Thursday game should prove beneficial. Jets should smoke the Dolphins.

WEEK 14 - VS. CLEVELAND: Always a tough game for the Jets. They better stay up for this one - it should be a win.

WEEK 15 - AT NEW ENGLAND: They won there last year, but New England gets this one as revenge for the opening week loss. If the Pats win in Week 1, I'd bet the Jets win this one.

WEEK 16 - AT TENNESSEE: Last year the Jets snuck one out in the opening week, holding off a furious Titans comeback. I think the Titans don't sneak up on the Jets this year, and win this one pretty solidly.

WEEK 17 - VS. KANSAS CITY: With a possible playoff berth on the line for the Chiefs (doubtful, but possible), I don't see the Jets letting Herman Edwards come back to the Meadowlands and win his way in.

OTHER STUFF: As fun as it is, I don't see the picks against the spreads contest happening this year. I just have so much else going on - I really have to cut back on the extras.

I also don't think I'll be posting much during the week, but I'll try to wrap up each game. Please keep checking back and seeing what there is on the site. Thanks!

(Comment:
Nefertiti Jones said...
11-5?? Wow. I'll take the under.

And who is this Southern Bureau you speak of?? He seems very smart...the font looks great.)

BACK FOR THE 2007 SEASON

Thanks for coming back. I should be starting with an in-depth article on the Jets' strengths and weaknesses for the upcoming season. Dissecting how they will fare coming back from an unexpected playoff year, and a tough loss in the playoffs to a division opponent.

But I came across this, and I don't think I can let it pass unnoticed. Today, Tuesday, August 7, 2007, the Jets introduced their dance team/cheerleading squad, the 'Flight Crew'.

Yep. Looks like the Jets will no longer be losing ugly. I don't quite know how to react to the squad's name, though. Part of me thinks 'Flight Crew' is clever, part of me thinks it's politically incorrect. Oh well. So the girls will now carry the flags after the Jets score, and they will be involved, so the people in charge say, in all aspects of the game - from player introductions through the end of the game. Sure beats the way the Jets used to do it:
Thanks for coming back after a long off-season. I'll try to get some posts out before the school year gets going, including my prediction for how the Jets will fare this year.

SCOUTING COMBINE UPDATE

Mike Tannenbaum appeared at the podium Thursday during the NFL Network's coverage of the Scouting Combine weekend.

Here are a couple of observations - not counting the fact that I've decided I don't really like Adam Schefter of the NFL Network very much.

On Chad Pennington: Tannenbaum says the Jets are actively involved in negotiations with Pennington, and they are working towards a resolution.

Pennington is due a 3-million-dollar bonus on March 3, and the Jets are trying to get him to decline the bonus and restructure his contract.

On "the plan": The Jets are comfortable with what their plan is, says Tannenbaum. He says the Jets will be where they need to be by next Thursday.

The Jets need to be under the salary cap by next Thursay - right now, they are over the cap - but not nearly as much as they were yesterday, before cutting Fiedler, Law, Fabini, and Sowell, and restructuring Curtis Martin's contract. The Jets slapped the franchise tag on John Abraham, which, if he agrees to that deal, would require more maneuvering by the Jets. By the way - teams always "slap" the franchise tag on someone. That gives it such a negative connotation. Maybe John Abraham (who is going to be traded, by the way) wouldn't be so upset with the franchise tag if the Jets "gently placed" the franchise tag on him.

On next season: Tannenbaum says the Jets will play the best players who give the Jets the best chances to win.

That's pretty obvious.

On the draft/combine: Tannenbaum says the Jets will be evaluating all players at all positions.

Eric Mangini is scheduled to be on Total Access tonight on the NFL Network - I'll see if I can catch that and add to this.

In wrapping up Tannenbaum's news conference, Jim Mora, an analyst on the NFL Network, says the Jets need to pick the best football player available with their fourth pick in the draft. They can't worry about position, since they have so many needs - they just need to pick the best player available.

Maybe a Mangini update later tonight/tomorrow....

There's a lot to update on the state of the Jets. I don't have time for all that now...time to focus on the Mets. But I didn't want to completely ignore the latest developments.

First, personally, I am mad at Herman Edwards. The Jets knew they were heading for a tough off-season, what with the salary cap problems, and the big contracts that would need to be restructured or released. I think Edwards is part coward, because he had a chance to escape all of these tough decisions by taking the job in Kansas City.

Today, the Jets released Ty Law, Jay Fiedler, Jerald Sowell, and Jason Fabini. None are huge surprises, especially Law and Fiedler. Sowell and Fabini were long-time Jets, so these moves sort of go along with the change of regime. Things are going to look a lot different on the field next year. Look for B.J. Askew to be a big factor at fullback.

Curtis Martin had his contract restructured, so it looks like he's a part of Eric Mangini and Mike Tannenbaum's plans. Mangini says he really respects Martin, and since Martin is such a good veteran influence, he will be THE guy in the lockerroom.

The big question still surrounds Chad Pennington. He didn't get cut today, so that's a good thing. March 3, I think, is the deadline for these decisions to be made...and there's still a significant possibility that he will be cut. I just can't see it. Sure, he's being overpaid right now, because he's been injured. But what he has done for this organization has earned him the right to at least compete for his job over the summer, and I think, given that chance, he will show that he is still capable of leading the offense. I know, I'm an optimist - maybe unrealistic. But he's had full healing time, and he's a competitor (not to mention a winner) - and people don't believe in him right now, so I think all of that points to a better Chad Pennington this season. Cutting him, I think, would be a mistake. As for the anonymous Jets player who compared Pennington to an "egg" in the pocket - it was probably an offensive lineman, whose fault it is that Pennington has taken the hits that have contributed to him being injured.

That's where I'll leave it for now - there's going to be lots to talk about this off-season, and if I'm not absorbed in baseball, I'll devote some time to the Jets.

When we last left the Jets, it was a heartbreaking scene. Two words I will mention here for the last time, and then try to put them behind me: Doug Brien. That's all I'll say about that.

But 2004 is behind us. The 2005 season is minutes away. And much has changed. The jerk that cost us a chance at the AFC Championship Game is gone (no, not Paul Hackett - though he's gone too - I'm talking about the guy I mentioned above and promised to never mention again). Mike Nugent is the Jets' kicker...and I was just reading some of my postings from last year...and in one, I promised I will never have faith in another kicker...but I will. And Mike Nugent is his name. More changes: LaMont Jordan is an Oakland Raider - off to pursue his fortune as a star, starting running back. Derrick Blaylock will back up Curtis Martin. Santana Moss is gone, traded to Washington for Laveranues Coles, back in the Green. Ty Law is no longer one of the players I dislike - I now love him (truth be told, I never could say I hated Ty Law - and I think my Patriot fan friends will back me up on this. I never loved him, of course, but he was so darn good I couldn't hate him - part of me always respected his ability. Sort of like being a Knicks fan and watching Michael Jordan play back when I cared about the NBA - but I digress.) And much to my dismay, Anthony Becht is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer - and new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will probably make a star out of Doug Jolley and Chris Baker instead of Becht.

Chad Pennington has a new shoulder...and he will hopefully play a full, injury-free season. He looked good in the pre-season...and looked awful in the pre-season. But the bottom line is - it was the pre-season. Next week he takes on the Chiefs in Kansas City, and we'll judge him then. But I will say this. For the first time, an organization didn't sugarcoat an injury. After last season ended, we knew Pennington had a serious problem. He was out of mini-camps, and didn't take the field until training camp. The Jets didn't try to pull the wool over our eyes - they said when he wasn't ready, and they didn't rush him back. He came back for the second pre-season game, and played well. And the coaching staff had him throw deep so we could see that he was back, and healthy, and everything works. I feel confident that Pennington is 100% this season, and hopefully he can avoid all other injuries and have a great season. If he gets hurt, the backup is Jay Fiedler. Capable, yes, and yes, he had a very good pre-season, but most of that wasn't against the number one defenses. I just don't trust Fiedler to go all the way - so Pennington needs to stay healthy.

The other parts of the offense haven't changed much. The offensive line is the same except for Kareem McKenzie - who left via free agency. Adrian Jones takes his spot, and has received good reviews - so with Jones, Jason Fabini, Kevin Mawae, Pete Kendall, and Brandon Moore, Pennington should be well-protected. Curtis Martin is Curtis Martin. He'll have another great year - he doesn't age. He led the league in rushing last year, but was disappointed because he didn't break a lot of long runs. So this off-season, he worked on his speed. I don't want to say he'll be even better this year, but he shouldn't drop off.

The offense should be better because Pennington has his favorite target back. Coles is back, and the two of them look like they were never apart. The only difference now is that Heimerdinger is the coordinator, but Pennington and Coles have a great chemistry. The other receiver is Justin McCareins, and I look for him to have a good year because he is reunited with Heimerdinger - his coordinator when he was putting up good numbers in Tennessee. Wayne Chrebet is also back for another campaign - bothered by concussions in the past, but watch him on third down this year. As I mentioned before, Jolley and Baker are the tight ends, and Pennington didn't seem to use them much until the final pre-season game, but they're supposed to be a bigger factor under Heimerdinger.

The defense is much easier to write about, because I don't have to keep writing Heimerdinger. Seriously, though, I think Donnie Henderson's squad is going to be the best in the league. John Abraham is back (still don't know how I feel about this - but he's one of the best at his position, so I guess there are worse things than having him starting on your defense), along with Shaun Ellis, the revitalized DeWayne Robertson, and Lance Legree on the defensive line (although Sione Pouha could definitely make a long-term appearance instead). Jason Ferguson is gone, but the Jets should be OK on the line. The linebackers are a good young bunch. Eric Barton nearly cost the Jets the San Diego game in the playoffs, but that one play overshadowed a pretty good year. Jonathan Vilma was the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and I don't expect a sophomore slump. He's a team leader, and he's awesome. Victor Hobson is solid...not great, but a good linebacker. The secondary is outstanding. David Barrett came up huge in the second half of last year. Oliver Celestin had a great camp, a great pre-season, and is the starting strong safety. Erik Coleman is the free safety, and I love watching him play. And Ty Law is a future Hall of Famer - great signing by the Jets - and risk-free. My worry when they signed him was that they, like the Mets, have bad enough luck signing free agents when they're healthy, that if they signed Law, whose health was sort of a question mark, he would probably never play in the NFL again. But he's OK, and will start the season, and he is a risk-free investment. So good move by the Jets.

On special teams, the Jets have punter Ben Graham, an Australian who beat out Micah Knorr for the job. He kicks the ball high and far, and apparently has learned how to be enough of a holder for Mike Nugent to win the job. Nugent will be awesome. I'm glad the Jets drafted him. Hopefully he won't let me down. It looks like Justin McCareins will be returning punts - although it was supposed to be rookie Justin Miller's job. He disappointed in camp. I think Derrick Blaylock will see some time returning kickoffs...but I'm not sure. Maybe Jerricho Cotchery too.

Other changes took place since the end of last football season. ESPNRadio has come to Boston, so I can now listen to Mike & Mike in the Morning on my way to work instead of watching it in the brief time before I leave on ESPNEWS. This means I can watch Mike Greenberg, the huge Jets fan. I love that he can be so unbiased about being a fan. It's refreshing, especially being a Jets fan. So I look forward to Monday mornings listening to him. And finally, I finally have DirecTV for a football season. Hey Peyton - I've got the Sunday Ticket. I've been excited to watch all the college football this weekend. But it's time for the NFL - and for the first time in a long time, as my cousin Eddie put it - the Jets have a legit shot at winning it all. It's a very tough schedule....but I think they can do it. It's so important that they get home field advantage....and I'll be here to chronicle whether or not they can do it. We resume our johnnyjets.blogspot.com schedule - providing school doesn't prevent me from sticking to it:

Monday: Recap of Sunday's game
Tuesday: Mailbag
Wednesday: Recap/Preview of the rest of the AFC East
Thursday: Focus on the Next Opponent
Friday: Preview and Picks

The Picks feature will be different this year. I didn't have a final count of my record (for entertainment purposed only, of course) from last year, but I was right around .500. This year, I will take on my wife, who was one of the best in the country on ESPN.com's Pigskin Pick 'Em last year, along with Dave from Brighton, who wants to be the third wheel on our picking bicycle. He kept track of some of his picks last year, but I don't know what his record was. I don't think it was much better than mine. We'll be using point spreads from USA Today, and we'll start with Thursday night's Patriots-Raiders season opener. I will also include my eliminator pick for the week.

Thanks for reading, and I look forward to an exciting NFL season.

Can you feel the excitement?!?! We're just a couple of days away from the NFL season. Here's how the website will work for the rest of the season.
The Jets play on Sunday.

Monday's posting will be a re-cap of the Sunday game.

Tuesday we'll take your mail ***note the change in mailbag dates*** That means now you want to send your reaction to the game by Monday afternoon, so that I can post the mailbag for Tuesday. This week will be the final week with the mailbag on Thursday.

Wednesday we'll take a look around the AFC East - recap the previous week, preview the upcoming week. Later in the season, we'll expand Wednesday to include the entire AFC, depending on the Playoff Picture.

Thursday we'll focus on the Jets next opponent. This day may feature guest writers with inside dirt from that city, or big-time fans of the opposition.

Friday will be the big game preview, and perhaps, I'll make my picks for the week, and keep track of that throughout the season.

This week, obviously, there is no game to recap, and Thursday is still the mailbag, not Tuesday. So we've skipped the regular Monday and Tuesday postings. Wednesday we'll pick it up with an AFC East preview, then continue with the regular schedule.

No major cuts by the Jets over the weekend - they are at the necessary 53-man roster. The Jets survived the dramatic come-from-behind-meaningless-preseason game win on Friday without suffering any injuries, so they're ready to go for the regular season!

The Mets stink, but check out johnnymets.blogspot.com for my big weekend in Philadelphia recap. There are pictures, and I'm proud when I put pictures on a website. Thanks for reading!

SEASON PREVIEW

Friday night the Jets host the Eagles in their final preseason game. Then it's on to the regular season. We just need everyone to make it out of the Eagles game healthy. That's all we need. I don't care if Pennington goes 0-for-12 and throws six INT's. Those six INT's better come in the first three minutes of the game, because he'd better not be in there for long.

Chad Pennington is the key to the season. Everything revolves around him. He is so good he gives the Jets a chance to win every single game he's involved in. So if Pennington's healthy, the Jets will do well, it's as simple as that.

Of course, he can't do it alone. The defense needs to keep the team in games. Even when the defense has been pretty bad the past couple of years, they've managed to keep the team in games. So this year, with a much better defense, I expect the 'D' to be able to do keep Pennington in position to win most games.

The Jets have taken steps to eliminate some of the mistakes that cost them games last year. Remember all the time management problems? (Not getting the kicking unit on the field in the right amount of time against the Giants, not taking a knee and running out the clock against the Titans on Monday Night Football, to name a couple.) The Jets now have a coach who will stay with Herman Edwards and tell him what to do in certain clock management situations. He's all over it. The coaching staff is better - Donnie Henderson is going to make Jets fans forget about Ted Cottrell real fast. Overall, this Jets team is better.

I'm thinking the Jets will reach double digits in wins. I haven't gone through the schedule week to week, but that's my estimate. 10 wins or so. With New England in the division, I don't know that 10 wins will be enough to win the East, but hopefully it will be enough to get the wild card. The AFC is tough. But for the Jets to win 10 games, they'd probably beat the teams they need to beat in order to earn all the tiebreakers to put them in the playoffs.

OK. As promised, it's time to check the mail. Dave from Brighton wrote about a week ago, when the rumor was that Ricky Williams had called the Dolphins. Dave says,
"I read recently that Ricky Williams might be reconsidering his retirement and could return to the Dolphins this season. Would a Williams return hurt the Jets, because Miami would be a more formidable opponent, or help them, since Miami could potentially beatthe other AFC East teams twice?"
It's become clear since Dave wrote this that Williams is NOT coming back. But if he did, that team would be in such disharmony that there's no way it would help the Dolphins, it could only hurt them. The Dolphins are going to be in a lot of trouble this season. Shortly after Williams left, David Boston got hurt, which really hurts their offense. Then, to shore up the offense, the Dolphins traded for Marty Booker, who isn't going to make a huge difference. In order to get Booker, Miami traded (I forget is first name - Adelewai?) Ogunleye, one of their best defensive players last year. And he killed the Jets. So that hurts their defense. Miami's going nowhere, doing nothing this year.

Here's this e-mail:
"Hi John-
How will the Jets finish out the season? Atop of the AFC East or as a Wild Card? (I know you have them somewhere in the playoffs).
Who's on tap for the Super Bowl this year?
And after a running back, what's the most important position to draft for in fantasy football?
Thanks. I enjoy your blog.
-Kathryn from Watertown"
I kind of alluded to your first question above, and as for a Super Bowl prediction, I'll go with the Jets over the Packers. How 'bout that...Brett Favre in his one last shot. I have to pick the Jets, because that's what I do. The Packers are just a guess. As for your last question, it really depends on the type of fantasy league you're in, and it depends on the point values assigned to each position. A scrambling-type quarterback might be the way to go, or a receiver who has the potential to also score on special teams. Thanks for writing.

Mark from Miami also checks in (take it easy, Jets fans - he's not a Dolphins fan, he just happens to live in Miami):
"John,What is the progress of Jets linebackers Darrell McClover and Jarrell Weaver?"
To be honest, Mark, I haven't heard a whole lot about either, but I think McClover will make the team. As I wrote last week, I did see him at practice, and he was putting in lots of extra time working with Jonathan Vilma. McClover is deep on the depth chart, but at least he's there. Weaver got cut last weekend. Who knows, maybe he'll end up on the practice squad. Don't worry, though, Mark, I think your Hurricanes are still the most represented college team on the Jets. That is to say, there are more Jets from Miami than from any other school.

Thanks for writing everyone! Keep them coming - we'll do it again next Thursday - hopefully on time next week.

Next week we'll get into regular season mode, and I'll give you the weekly breakdown in Monday's posting.

I apologize for the lack of a posting yesterday. School meetings have begun, and things have been busy. We'll forgo the NFL preview, because, come on, we all know I'm picking the Jets to win it all anyway. So without further ado, it's time for the Jets' offensive preview.

JETS OFFENSE

Thank goodness I bring you the following news: The Jets have signed QB Chad Pennington to a seven year contract extension, worth 23 million dollars, with incentives built in to make it a 64-million-dollar deal. All that means is that Pennington's contract will not be a distraction this season. All I have to say about Pennington is this: last year was by far the worst year we will ever see from Chad Pennington. For those of us who didn't see Joe Namath, this is the best quarterback we've ever seen wear a Jets uniform, and if he plays like he did two years ago, could be one of the best ever. But let's not jump the gun....Pennington is going to lead the Jets to some very good things this year.

And he's got a capable backup. That's something that couldn't have been said two weeks ago. Quincy Carter is the backup. He's happy just to have a job, the Jets are happy to have a playoff-caliber quarterback to back up Pennington. Carter will be gone next year, so the Jets aren't investing much in a guy who has a bit of a questionable character, but if things should go terribly wrong this year, we won't have to worry about Brooks Bollinger taking over. I think Bollinger will be a good backup in another year - or at least, I'll have more confidence in him, but this year, I'm glad to have Carter on the team.

My only comment about the offensive line is that the Jets really lucked out when the Arizona Cardinals cut Pete Kendall. The rumor was that Dennis Green cut Kendall because he tattled to the league that Green's practices over the summer were violating some union rules. So the Jets were able to scoop up Kendall, and he's going to be the starting left guard. That means instead of having two inexperienced offensive linemen, the Jets have just one on the line, and another capable backup. One addition really made a huge difference for the Jets this year.

They'll be blocking for Curtis Martin again. Martin says he feels great, and he's had a ton of reps in the pre-season, more than he's had the past couple of years. He says he needs that to get going for the regular season. Martin's getting up there in years (relatively speaking), and might not have many more to go. I keep doubting that Martin can top the 1,000 yard mark, but he did it last year, and that was a horrible year for him. So I feel that at least this year, Martin is going to be a big factor. Martin starts ahead of LaMont Jordan, who is not happy about his lack of playing time. Jordan feels he could be starting somewhere, and feels Herman Edwards is lying to him about trying to get him the ball more. Jordan has been great backing up Curtis Martin, and can rip off a great run once in a while. But he'd better not be a distraction worrying about whether or not he's going to play a lot.

As for the receivers, Santana Moss is Pennington's favorite target, and is explosive. Justin McCareins was a big addition. He's young, and they could form a great combo for years to come. Wayne Chrebet might be done. He insists he'll play in the season opener (although that's looking more and more unlikely), but I don't think we'll be seeing him on the field much this season. We'll see. Jerricho Cotchery was a good draft pick. He won't have much of an impact this year (unless Chrebet doesn't play at all), but can step into that slot receiver role in the near future. Jonathan Carter has shown flashes of being a big-time receiver, but he has a little case of the dropsies. He sure is fast, though. TE Anthony Becht needs to be used more. I am probably the only person in America pleading his case (as I've been doing for three years), but maybe this will be his breakout year. He's playing for a contract, and is feeling a lot of heat from backup Chris Baker. But let's just remember how many clutch plays he made down the stretch the last two years the Jets made the playoffs.

Sorry my thoughts were so disjointed. I need to go to bed. I'm going to put off the mail bag until tomorrow. We have a couple of e-mails....if you want to send another couple, I'll print them all tomorrow, along with the big Jets overall preview.

Before I continue with "Preview Week", I must note this: I'm watching the Cowboys-Titans right now on Monday Night Football, and Vinny Testaverde is making Bill Parcells look like a genius. He's throwing like crazy, and he looks good. Either that, or the Titans defense has been horrible. One or the other, I haven't been watching that long. But it seems like Testaverde and Keyshawn Johnson have the same chemistry they had with the Jets. I do, though, expect Testaverde to throw an interception any second. OK - on with Preview Week.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Jets defense was one of the biggest reasons for last year's 6-10 record. Because of that, there have been a lot of changes, and I think that most of them, if not all, make this Jets defense better than last year's.

Most notable gone are LB's Mo Lewis and Marvin Jones. Most notably added are LB Eric Barton, CB David Barrett, and S Reggie Tongue, along with first round draft pick LB Jonathan Vilma. Also likely to make an impact this season are rookie S Erik Coleman, and rookie CB Derrick Strait.

Everyone is stressing the fact that the defense is faster and younger this year. That's a big factor, but when you combine it with the fact that new defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson employs a very aggressive strategy, it becomes even more of a factor. He threw all kinds of looks at the Giants last Friday, and that was in a preseason game. So I have a feeling he has a bunch more tricks up his sleeve that he's waiting for the regular season to unveil. The past few years, the Jets would give up huge chunks of yardage under Ted Cottrell, before tightening up closer to their goal line. I think the days of opponents marching up and down the field on the Jets 'D' are over.

The D-line is a huge factor this year. Shaun Ellis, Dewayne Robertson, Jason Ferguson, and John Abraham should be the starters. Ellis had the huge year last year, Robertson had a bad rookie season, Ferguson's a solid veteran, and Abraham is coming off a disappointing season, but is going to be a big factor this year (it should also be noted Ellis and Abraham are playing for contracts this year). The Jets plan to use Abraham as a sometime-lineman, sometime-linebacker, as he'll sometimes drop back into coverage. That should be fun to watch, and I think it is a good fit for Abraham. Robertson needs to bounce back with a good year - if not, he'll be labeled a bust, and that'll be tough for him to shake the rest of his career. I have a feeling Ellis is going to have another good year, and I think the Jets are more interested at this point in re-signing Ellis than they are Abraham.

The starting linebackers will most likely be Barton, Sam Cowart in the middle, and Victor Hobson. Vilma is the next in line, and could steal a lot of playing time from Cowart, but I'm pretty sure the Jets will be starting Cowart come September 12th. This is a very improved unit - I think Hobson's going to have a great career, for whatever that's worth. He and Vilma should be playing side-by-side for a long time, and Barton's only 26 years old. I'm looking forward to seeing him play, because I don't know too much about him.

Another player I don't know much about is Barrett. He is a part of the revamped secondary, which is another area the Jets have gone to great lengths to improve. Barrett is slated at one corner, and Donnie Abraham is the other. I think Abraham is hurt, though, and won't be ready by opening day...so Ray Mickens will be the starter in his place. Right behind Mickens is Strait, who will see a lot of work in dime action, and I don't think the coaches need to much of an excuse to put Strait into the starting lineup. I think they've been impressed, and like him a lot. Another rookie they like a lot is Coleman, and I think at this point, Coleman is the starter at strong safety over new acquisition Reggie Tongue. Tongue has been disappointing, and has been hurt on and off during training camp, and Coleman has been very impressive so far. The other safety is Jon McGraw, who was never really the same last year after he got hurt in the season opener in Washington. I think McGraw is going to be very good, if he can stay healthy. I look forward to seeing him get a full year of playing time.

As I segue from defense into special teams, I will also note that on Monday the Jets cut LB Quincy Stewart, and punter Brian Simjanovski. Stewart had 15 tackles for the Jets on special teams last season, and I have a feeling he was cut now so he can try to hook on with another team before the pre-season is over. The Jets just don't have room for him on the roster. Simjanovski was signed because starting punter Toby Gowin hasn't been 100-percent healthy during training camp. With the cutdown deadlines approaching, the Jets didn't need him. They can probably always re-sign him if they need another kicker - Simjanovski had already been cut once by the Jets during training camp. Anyway, the revolving door at punter continues for the Jets with Gowin this year. He's been with the Cowboys, and replaces Dan Stryszinski. As long as he can boot the ball I'm fine with Gowin. Doug Brien returns as the placekicker, and he's solid. He had one bad situation last year, in the regular season against the Giants, when he didn't get on the field in time to kick a field goal. Brien's a solid kicker, and I think the Jets have solved their mental lapses, so I don't see those types of situations repeating themselves this year.

As for kick returns, Jonathan Carter will handle kickoffs, and Santana Moss handles punts. This should be exciting. Carter showed what he could do last year, and Moss is one of the best punt returners in the NFL. Field position should not be a problem for the Jets in 2004.

Tomorrow we'll preview the offense.

Welcome to preview week here at johnnyjets.blogspot.com.

We begin preview week with a review of Friday night's Jets-Giants preseason game. Chad Pennington was OK - but he made it through the game healthy, which is all anyone should care about. He might not even play in the preseason finale on Friday - which is a good thing. Curtis Martin had a heavy workload, I think 12 carries for 50 yards. He says he's ready for the regular season, and feels better than he did last year.

But I think the most important development from Friday's preseason game was the way the defense came out feeling about itself. After a couple of questionable outings in which they didn't prove they were a much better defensive unit than they were last year, the D broke out on Friday. They killed Eli Manning, forcing turnovers and pressuring him into mistakes. (That bodes well for the first game of the season, when they play Carson Palmer, who'll be making his first NFL start...but I digress.) But the biggest thing was new defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson's game plan. He blitzed everyone, from every angle. That's something the Jets haven't been doing much of in recent years, and it would be fun to watch in the regular season.

So the Jets won 2 out of their first 3 preseason games, and finish the preseason on Friday against Philadelphia. Don't expect to see many of the starters play, and if they do play, don't expect to see much of them. After that, the Patriots and Colts start the season on Thursday, September 9th, and the rest of the NFL gets started on Sunday the 12th - the Jets host the Bengals.

If you feel like the 12th's never going to come, I'll help you through it. First, a breakdown of the Jets - we'll do that all this week. Then next week, we'll get into our regular routine for the season. I'll break out that schedule next week. For this week, here's what you can expect:

Tuesday: Focus on Jets' defense/special teams
Wednesday: Focus on Jets' offense
Thursday: Jets season preview/thoughts on season/mail
Friday: Rest of the NFL preview

Don't forget the mail aspect on Thursday - that's when I'll respond to your e-mailed thoughts, questions, and comments. Send your e-mails by Wednesday to johnnyjetsmail@yahoo.com. We've already gotten some mail - keep it coming!