This week's special Thanksgiving picks edition of johnnyjets.blogspot.com features the big debate: Will the Indianapolis Colts go undefeated this season? I have enlisted the help of a Patriots fan, and Colts hater, Dave in Brighton, and he will argue against the Colts going 19-0 (or at least 16-0). I will tell you why Indianapolis will finally shut up the '72 Dolphins.

First, me:

The Colts have a much tougher road than the '72 Dolphins, because there are two more regular season games, and they're going to have to go 19-0 instead of 17-0. But they can do it, and here's why.

First, the remaining schedule for the Colts:
Monday night vs. Pittsburgh (7-3)
Sunday, Dec. 4 vs. Tennessee (2-8)
Sunday, Dec. 11 at Jacksonville (7-3)
Sunday, Dec. 18 vs. San Diego (6-4)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at Seattle (8-2)
Sunday, Jan. 1 vs. Arizona (3-7)
Playoffs

It's not the easiest go for the Colts, but they can (and I say they will) win all of those games. Obviously, the games they have to worry about are Seattle, San Diego, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh. Tennessee and Arizona should be blowouts, (even if the backups are going against Arizona, which I don't think will be the case).

Everything is clicking for the Colts right now - they are able to turn it on whenever they need to. The Colts' closest calls so far this season came early on, when they had successive 7-point victories over the Jaguars and the Browns, but they got enough to win. And the defense stepped up, which is something that hasn't happened for them in recent years. Then, last week, when the defense disappeared, the offense reappeared, putting up 45 points in a 45-37 win over the Bengals. They get what they need each week to win, and that will continue.

The top reason, though, why the Colts will win it all, without losing at all, is Peyton Manning. He does it all, and does what it takes to win. He made the decision last week, when the coaches were pulling the offense off the field on a 4th-and-1, to go for the first down, then he proceeded to get the first down. He's a smart player, he runs a great offense, and he is able to win his teams games, and he will continue to do that.

Finally, this is one of those "monkey off your back" seasons for the Colts, and they're doing that in extraordinary fashion. The Colts got the big win they needed against the Patriots, in Foxboro, on a Monday night in front of a national TV audience. That is a huge confidence-builder. The fact that they are wrapping up home field advantage throughout the playoffs is huge too, because they're not going to have to go through another city (including not having to make another trip to New England) in order to advance to the Super Bowl, which is part of the reason they haven't been to the Super Bowl in previous seasons. The other big "monkey" has been the Colts' D, and last week notwithstanding, that monkey is finally off Tony Dungy's back, because this year's Colts D is fierce.

The Colts should make life difficult for whoever is playing quarterback for the Steelers Monday night - even if it is Ben Roethlisberger, and not Tommy Maddox. The Colts should win the rematch with the Jaguars, but that game will not be easy. The one blemish could come Christmas Eve at Seattle, and here's the problem - if things are wrapped up for the Colts by then, Dungy might start resting some starters, and try to take some pressure off the Colts by making that a game they could lose, therefore not having to worry through the playoffs about staying undefeated. But I believe that nothing will keep Peyton Manning from sitting out games down the stretch, and other teammates will follow his example, and the Colts will cruise to their next big test - in the playoffs and Super Bowl, and who knows who'll they'll face then.
"Dear JohnnyJets,

Some old guy came out recently and said thinks the Colts have the right mix to go undefeated. I forget his name. Something Shula. I'm sure I know more about this topic than he does, so I will give you three good reasons the Colts will end the season with at least one loss.

1. Lightning in a bottle. To go undefeated, the Colts need to play six more games without any major breakdowns. That's 24 quarters of focus, something that is nearly impossible in the Any Given Sunday NFL.

2. Look at the schedule. Unlike the parade of creampuffs and prep teams they faced in the first seven weeks before their bye (how convenient -- a bye before facing the Pats. Topic for another email), the Colts must actually face teams with winning records. Pittsburgh, at Jacksonville, San Diego, and at Seattle.

3. Resting their players. The Colts lead their division by three games, and lead in the race for homefield advantage by two. I predict they'll have everything locked up going into week 15, week 16 at the latest, which means they'll have two games to sit their starters, or let them play just a series or two. While the Cardinals are unlikely to take advantage in week 17, I bet the Seahawks will, at home on Christmas Eve.

Signed,
Dave in Brighton


PS Atl -3, Den +1.5"

One more thing for me to mention - I hate Peyton Manning when he plays the Jets, but I really like him overall. I liked him in college, when I used to read about him delivering pizza to the fans waiting in line for Tennessee tickets. I have also since heard from University of Tennessee alumni that Manning is still god-like to them...that's gotta count for something. But I do believe that he is a truly nice guy, and he's easy for me to root for in seasons like this. Also, I like Tony Dungy, and hear from all corners of the earth what a wonderful guy he is.

Oh, another thing I should mention. This might be tough for others to follow (others being people who root for teams who are consistently good), but since I am a Jets fan, I have gotten into the habit of rooting for other teams down the stretch who I want to follow into the playoffs, since it's rare that the Jets are still playing worthwhile games in December and January. This isn't a frontrunner thing, it's just to have rooting interest. Anyway, in the late 80's, early 90's, that team was the Oilers, and I liked to root for them in the playoffs. In the early-to-mid-90's, the team was the Packers. Now, I find myself torn between the AFC and the NFC, and I'm rooting for the Falcons, because I love watching Michael Vick, and the Colts, because I want them to win in a year the Jets aren't in contention. I will root for the Colts to win it all, and then the Falcons I'll root for in the Super Bowl another year down the road. But I do want an Atlanta-Indianapolis matchup this year. Just FYI.

Lastly, the picks. As you saw, Dave goes with Atlanta and Dallas. So do I (Atlanta is giving three in Detroit, and Dallas is getting two at home versus Denver). The wife takes Atlanta and Denver. That's the Thanksgiving picks - the standings after eleven weeks are pitiful. I was 5-11 last week, the other two were 6-10. Now I'm bringing up the rear at 71-85-4, Dave is 64-76-4, and the wife is 78-78-4. Someone needs to step it up.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.