Monday, August 22, 2005

The Mets are in Arizona as I write this, in the middle of a game which started at 9:40pm. Another odd start time on the East Coast (a la Colorado), so I can't write something after the game. But I'll write something now. (I don't want to jinx the game, either, but right now it's looking good - the Mets have a 3-0 lead in the seventh inning, and THE GREATEST BALLPLAYER WHO EVER LIVED, Jose Reyes, has a solo homer. No doubles for David Wright yet.)

There are a couple of e-mails, so I'll get to those while we wait to see if the Mets game goes final while I write. The first:

"Hi JohnnyMets-

I have another baseball question for you that's been plaguing me all day.

Let's just suppose that down the stretch, end of season, the Mets, Marlins and Phillies all tie for the Wild Card. How does it play out? You can't have a one-game playoff between three teams. Someone would end up getting screwed having to play two games.

Thanks for your insight.

-Your Wife"

OK. Good question. But first of all, this is impossible, because we all know the Phillies will choke. So let's substitute the Astros for the Phillies just so I can make this question feasible. This is a situation that almost happened in 1998, I think. Then, the Mets were eliminated late in the year in a race that involved the Cubs, Giants, Mets, and Expos for the final Wild Card spot. (In a game that year against the Expos, the Mets lost 1-0, and Jay Payton, then a rookie, making his first Major League contributions after battling injuries his whole Minor League career, made a very bad baserunning blunder that pretty much ruined the Mets' season. I've harbored a slight grudge against him ever since...made worse this year by his selfish antics in Boston.) This year is shaping up much like the 1998 race. Here's what would happen:

Let's say, for argument's sake, the three teams tied for the Wild Card are the Mets, Marlins, and Astros. The teams would be seeded, and a playoff would be held. I think the seedings would be based on the teams' results in games against each other during the regular season. So let's say the Mets and Marlins both split against Houston, but the Mets took the season series against the Marlins, 12-7. The records would be:

Mets: 15-10
Astros: 6-6
Marlins: 10-15

So the Mets would be seeded first, Astros second, and Marlins third. So then the Marlins would visit Houston for a playoff game, and the winner of that one game would visit the Mets for the right to advance in a one-game playoff. I think that's how it works. It's going to happen one day, the way these races are so tight these days, so eventually we'll see it play out and get a better understanding. But good question. And hopefully it doesn't happen this year, because I don't know if I can take a race that close - I'd love for the Mets to close it out late in September.

Another e-mail focusing on the Wild Card (partly):

"Dear JohnnyMets,

It's taken nearly 2 baseball seasons, but I must now reluctantly admit that I'm starting to enjoy John Kruk on Baseball Tonight.

If I can come around on Kruk, do you think there's hope for reconciliation between you and Ted Robinson?

Unrelated, when SportsCenter or Baseball Tonight talks about the NLwild card race, they put the Mets in the graphic, but they rarely mention them in the copy. Does this irk you, or do you prefer for the Mets to fly below the radar before gunning into the playoffs with a 22-7 September?

Signed, Dave in Brighton"

Well, first of all, No. There's no hope for me and Teddy. In comparing the two situations, though, I'd need to know the extent of your disdain for Kruk. The only reconciliation between myself and Robinson will come in a week or two when he's away for a couple of weeks doing U.S. Open Tennis. Then I won't think about him at all for a while.

As for the Wild Card standings, it goes without saying that ESPNEWS and ESPNRadio are also guilty of this. (Of course, on the radio, they mention the Mets are however many games back, but they don't count the Mets in a discussion about which teams have a real shot at winning.) The problem here is that the Mets have to leapfrog not only the Astros, but also the rest of their division in order to move to the second or third spot in the Wild Card standings. The thing I think the ESPN people forget, though, is that they are only one or two games away from doing that. But give it a week or so, and the Mets will start entering into these conversations. To answer your question, Dave, it does irk me a little bit, because it happens all the time - the Mets need to play this way deep into September in order to make the media believe they can do it. It's like the media is making them show they can play in order for them to be mentioned. I think they've already earned the right to be talked about.

I've come to the realization that Arizona and San Francisco are not very good, and the Mets should be able to do well on this seven-game trip out West. I think I mentioned on Sunday that 17 of the Mets' next 20 games are on the road - that's a tough grind. We'll revisit this, if I remember, after the 20-game stretch, but they really need to go 9-8 or better in those games. And the three-game homes series is against Philly - so the Mets need to win that too.

Incidentally, the Braves beat the Cubs on Monday night, and the Phillies and Astros are also out West, with the Mets, so the Mets need help while they try to take care of the D-backs. Here's a disturbing number I saw during the Mets game - Tom Glavine (who's pitching well right now), as we know, is a lefty. Righties are hitting .304 against him....Lefties are hitting .341 against him!!! That's outrageous.

I think that's all I have to say for tonight. No doubles for Wright, I'll update Beltran*'s numbers tomorrow on a one-day delay.

THE KID'S KIDS: A 5-4 win for the Mets. They're now 35-16. I'll try to call Port St. Lucie on Tuesday. There are only 4 games left on the schedule.

No comments: