2008 - YEAR OF THE GAG?

Looking back at the 2008 NFL regular season, I think the one theme that stands out is the fact that a lot of teams blew a lot of chances this year. Sure, there were teams that pounced on opportunity: the Arizona Cardinals took advantage of being in the worst division in football to win said division, the Miami Dolphins took advantage of their schedule to be good enough to win the AFC East, and the San Diego Chargers took care of their business to put themselves in a position to win and get in in the final week of the season.

But the Chargers were only able to do that because the Denver Broncos wasted their (very good) chance. And the Dolphins wouldn't have won had the Jets held their ground. And they were joined by the likes of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears, who at one point controlled their destiny, only to let those opportunities slip away. Throw in teams like the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys, and it seems like there was an inordinate amount of teams this year who had a chance to make things happen for themselves, and blew it. (Teams like the Bills don't count - though they got off to a really hot start, they faded too far too fast.)

I noticed a couple of patterns with these teams - the Jets, Broncos, Bucs, Redskins, and Cowboys. The first is, other than the Jets, who lost too many games to beatable teams, the teams really beat up on their weaker opponents - meaning maybe they didn't really deserve to be in the positions they were in because they didn't have the most difficult schedules. (I noted how easy the Broncos' schedule was way back in August.)

But the other thing is a lot of these teams had a big win, followed by a big collapse. Look:

1) The Jets beat the Patriots and Titans in back-to-back weeks on the road, improving to 8-3, then went 1-4 the rest of the way.

2) The Broncos started the Jets on that downward spiral, but that was their high water mark - after beating the Jets, Denver beat Kansas City, then lost their final three, all with an opportunity to clinch the division.

3) The Buccaneers were 9-3, coming off a win that pretty much buried the Saints, then lost to Carolina in a big divisional matchup as part of their 0-4 finish to the season.

4) The Redskins started hot, became everyone's favorite darkhorse, were sitting pretty at 7-4, and then finished 1-4 - including a loss to Cincinnati - to finish the season.

5) The Cowboys' chokes have been well-documented, but they fit this pattern, too - after regaining some hope by beating the Giants, they lost their final two games of the season with everything on the line.


I guess this is all just to point out that as horrible as the Jets season was, they had plenty of company this year. It's just hard to notice that other teams and their fans are sharing your plight in the heat of the moment.

ON THE OTHER HAND, MY YEAR WAS PRETTY GOOD: I have to admit, on this last day of 2008, that I got really caught up in my number of posts this year. When I changed format sometime last year, the new page kept track of posts per month and year. And I decided I wanted to try to post as much as I could in 2008, watching those numbers very closely.

I ended up posting a record 284 times in 2008. Of course, it was a leap year, so you have to subtract from 366 to see how many days I missed instead of 365, but still...I'm impressed.


April and May were tough - a busy time at school. October, a month into having the new baby, was also sporadic. But I wrote this year more days than ever before - by a long shot.

And the reason I did it was because people were reading. I was picked up a couple of times this summer by other blogs, which was a first. And I have my small, small circle of loyal readers, who I really appreciate taking a couple of minutes out of their day to read what I have to say, and either comment on it in writing or in person. Thank you, because I'd like to think I'd do this in a vacuum, but I'm not sure I'd continue if no one read it.

I'm proud of the fact that I was able to keep the writing up this year. And I doubt that I'll be able to match that output in 2009. But I'll try. And I'll have help. I'm excited to announce that in 2009, as I floated out as a possibility in early August, the Southern Bureau will become a regular contributor - I've officially handed over a set of keys. Maybe I can get The Wife to do some more contributing in 2009 as well.

But just like a year ago, there's a lot to look forward to in the coming year. And I will write about it. And who knows, it might just turn out to be more often than in 2008.

NFL WEEK 15 RECAP

Another week of NFL action in the books - and only two more of these before we get some playoff action:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 15: Another group of tight games, but none worth really shouting about. A couple shouldn't have turned out the way they did, either. The Jets-Bills was exciting for a neutral observer, I guess, but infuriating in ways, too. Same thing for Titans-Texans and Chargers-Chiefs. All had pretty good endings, but lacked greatness in some form.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 15: I can't believe I'm about to write this, but Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings proved me wrong - they came out and handled the Cardinals, showing they belong in the playoffs, which they will now inevitably make. (I haven't been a believer in them at all.) Jackson, filling in for the injured Gus Frerotte, outshone MVP-candidate Kurt Warner, throwing for 4 touchdowns (on just 163 yards....but he still cashed them in, so good for him).

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 15: Could be the Cardinals for coming out so flat, and it could be a number of coaches for their poor decision-making that cost them some games. But maybe we'll go with Washington, with everything setting up for them nicely, choking one away against Cincinnati. The Bengals only have nothing to play for, while the Redskins are fighting (and losing) for a playoff spot.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 16: Weird, this. Both the top two teams in the AFC and NFC face off with the winner controlling the number one seed. Steelers-Titans and Giants-Panthers in Week 16. That's really amazing.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 16: I'm going to let my heart get in the way of my head here, and predict a big week from the Arizona Cardinals. Nothing about them playing in the east should lead me to believe anything good from them this week, but I'm looking at what they did last week, and if they want to be considered a legit playoff threat, they need to come back and make a statement this weekend against the Patriots. So I'm calling for it. They get the upset, 28-24 in New England, with Kurt Warner coming back with 338 yards and 3 TD's against the weak New England secondary.
-Last Week: I said 33o yards and 3 TD for Peyton Manning (hmm...sounds familiar). He had 318 with just one passing TD.

NFL WEEK 6 RECAP

Weird week of NFL action, wasn't it? Lots of upsets and near-upsets. After the way Sunday went, I kind of sensed the Browns might pull it off on Monday night. But without having put any money where my mouth is on that one, I have no proof. So we'll move on:

BEST GAME OF WEEK SIX: By far the Cardinals-Cowboys game, which is the first time (I think) the game I called would be the best was actually the best. I missed the first half of this game because of how long it took to get back from the Jets game, but I heard from a couple of different sources that it was intense right from the beginning. The Cardinals just beat up the Cowboys (final tally: the star quarterback, the starting punter, and the second-string running back/kick returner, among other injuries), and pulled out a huge win. All told, as bad as the Jets' losses to the Chargers and Patriots are looking right now, the win against the Cardinals is looking pretty impressive.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK SIX: The Colts looked like the Colts again, and in particular, Peyton Manning had a typical day. Manning was 19-28 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns, as the Colts blew out the Ravens 31-3.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK SIX: I've already mentioned the disappointing week Brett Favre had, and the same could be said of the Vikings (Adrian Peterson in particular) and Bears (the Vikings barely got by the Lions, the Bears lost to Atlanta). But the Redskins laid the biggest egg. A week after being declared by everyone an up-and-comer in the tough NFC East, the Redskins showed why they're the team people are picking in that division to NOT make the playoffs. They gave the Rams their first win of the season, 19-17 St. Louis. (Similarly, the Panthers got crushed by the Buccaneers just when people were buying into them. I still think Carolina will win their division.)

BEST GAME IN WEEK SEVEN: I like a few on the schedule - Indy at Green Bay, Monday night's Pats-Broncos matchup, and New Orleans-Carolina. But the big matchup, I think, is San Diego at Buffalo. Big measuring stick game for each team, what with the Bills 4-1 (coming off the loss to Arizona) and the Chargers coming off their win against New England, unpredictable all season. The Bills' starting quarterback, Trent Edwards, has a concussion, so they might have to go with J.P. Losman - but they're home, and the way the Chargers have played defense this season, Losman would probably be OK. An interesting AFC matchup, with potentially huge ramifications for the Jets.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK SEVEN: Going on kind of a hunch here, I'm thinking the Giants bounce back huge against the 49ers at home next week. I think they'll be led by Brandon Jacobs, who will have 3 touchdowns on the ground, and maybe 117 rushing yards.
-Last Week: I said Jason Campbell would bounce back from a mediocre stat week to have 298 yards passing with 2 touchdowns by air, one on the ground. He threw for 208 yards in the Redskins' disappointing loss, and had 0 touchdowns.

NFL WEEK 4 RECAP

For the sake of my sanity, I'm going to take another day to cool off about the Mets. Just know that I'm pissed. I'm going to do the NFL Week 4 wrap-up instead (and probably forego the final baseball analysis).

BEST GAME OF WEEK 4: Washington 26, Dallas 24. Not just a big win for Washington, upsetting the best team in the NFC in Dallas, but an entertaining game.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 4: How about the Jets' own Brett Favre? He threw 6 touchdown passes and moved the Jets up and down the field with ease. Larry Johnson was also very impressive for Kansas City, rushing for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns.

WORST PERFORMANCE WEEK 4: The Cardinals' defense allowed the Jets to go up and down the field with way too much ease - 56 points allowed is a disgrace. Kurt Warner and the offense were putrid in the first half, turning the ball over a lot, allowing the Jets to have great field position. The Jets' defense wasn't much better - 35 points in a half is just as bad.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 5: I like a bunch of games on the Week 5 schedule: The Colts in Houston, Seattle at the Giants, Washington goes to Philly coming off the Dallas win, and after that disaster versus the Jets the Cardinals host the Bills, which should be interesting. I also think San Diego and Miami is intriguing, based on how both teams have been playing (the Chargers not looking too impressive, the Dolphins coming off their bye week following the big win in New England). But I don't think any of them beat the Sunday night game - Pittsburgh at Jacksonville. Not just a playoff rematch, but a tough matchup whenever they meet.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 5: I have nothing to back this up, but I like Matt Forte going against the Lions in Detroit. I'm going to say 145 yards and 2 TD's.
-Last Week: I gave you Jake Delhomme for 265 yards and 4 TD's in a 38-13 win. I was close enough, I think - he went for 294 yards, 2 TD, and the Panthers won 24-9.

MY TWO BASEBALL CENTS
I can't completely ignore baseball.
-Looks right now like the Twins and White Sox will be playing for the Central title Tuesday night. I think the Twins might be my post-season team this year.
-I guess it would have been nice to be at the final game at Shea, but how crappy must it have been to sit through that ceremony after such a devastating loss?
-More evidence of what a good friend the Southern Bureau is - this e-mail sent to me today: "Whatever you do, don't read the Post online today. They're brutal towards the Mets." I didn't. (Didn't really intend to.)
-I don't know whether to be sad or angry. I don't know who to direct my anger towards. This was not a good feeling last year. Still isn't this year.

A QUICK RECAP

Do you feel like I do? Did those playoff games turn out the way you expected them to, except not really go the way you expected them to?

I'll break it down winner-by-winner:

In my opinion, Seattle should have dominated this game from the get-go. Instead, they controlled the game, though they couldn't get anything huge going, until the Redskins shocked them with two quick scores to take the lead in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks then turned it into the rout it should have been from the beginning of the game, with a couple of defensive scores (and a back-door cover and back-door over).

A lot of people were high on Jacksonville going into this game - I just never got that way. If Pittsburgh had kicked an extra point or two, there would have been overtime, and who knows what would have happened (they at least would have covered the point-and-a-half with one extra point - my only loss against the spread this weekend). I will say this, with the Chargers win, the fact that Jacksonville now goes to New England gives the Patriots a tougher matchup than if it had been Tennessee.

The Giants game was, surprisingly, the least surprising game of the weekend. It was pretty straightforward - after the Buccaneers scored early in the game, the Giants rattled off 24 unanswered, and never looked back. I just didn't buy this Tampa team, and the way the Giants had played on the road, it seemed likely they would get the win. I don't want to tip my hand too soon...but with the Giants going to Dallas, a division foe they are familiar with, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants advance.

If you are a Chargers fan, you are breathing a tremendous sigh of relief right now. That did not go according to plan. The Chargers were lucky to win the game, let alone cover the 9-and-a-half point spread. A disgusting effort by San Diego at home. LaDainian Tomlinson is becoming an Alex Rodriguez type - he just doesn't perform in the post-season.

There was no picture to illustrate my point, so I'll just throw this out there here - Jack Del Rio of the Jaguars gets the "Best Dressed" award for the coaches this week. That leather jacket was sharp on Saturday night. (You might remember that Del Rio cares how he looks - he appealed to the NFL along with Mike Nolan for the coaches to be able to wear suits on the sidelines like the old days.)

Thanks for making your picks - here's the way it stands (I'll break it down into picks and over/unders, because apparently Justin from NYC doesn't 'do' over/unders):

PICKS
Justin from NYC: 4-0
Johnnymets: 3-1
Southern Bureau: 3-1
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
The Brother-in-Law: 2-2
The Wife: 1-3

OVER/UNDER
Dave in Brighton: 2-2
Johnnymets: 2-2
Southern Bureau: 2-2
The Wife: 2-2
The Brother-in-Law: 1-3

(I'll see if I can get a spreadsheet or something for next week.)

ONE MORE WEEK

Whether or not the Jets are involved (not, more often than not), I always enjoy the final weeks of the NFL leading up to the playoffs. I enjoy playoff scenarios (this team needs this team to lose, but this team can get in if it just keeps winning....). I enjoy them so much that the one of the biggest reasons I created FAMILEAGUE, my fantasy football league, was so I could keep track of stats and playoff positioning and scenarios. But Sunday of Week 16 of the real NFL was one of those weeks where you almost wished you were a fan of the Titans or the Redskins....because they must have done something right this year.

Both Tennessee and Washington entered Week 16 needing a team to lose, in order to stay alive for the playoffs. For the Titans, it was the Browns, for the Redskins, it was their opponent, the Vikings. Both teams lost, keeping both Tennessee and Washington alive...and not only that, but now they both control their own fate!

Cleveland is in the midst of pulling a minor Detroit job - Detroit was sitting pretty around Thanksgiving, then proceeded to lose 8 games in a row, putting themselves out of contention. The Browns were on the verge of passing Pittsburgh for the division title, and now, after losing a very winnable game in Cincinnati, need Indianapolis to beat Tennessee next week in order to make the playoffs. It doesn't matter what the Browns do against the 49ers - they just need the Titans to lose.

The Jets could have been a major spoiler for the Titans on Sunday - and could have been heroes for the Browns. After the Browns stunk it up in Cincinnati, all the Jets had to do was win, and Cleveland would have had a playoff berth. But the Jets are 3-12 for a reason...as we have documented...and the Titans snuck out a win. (If the Titans are really only a narrow 10-6 victory better than the Jets, by the way, the Browns shouldn't have much to worry about next week when Tennessee plays the Colts. At least Cleveland beat the Jets by six.)

The NFC is a mess...that's how I'll start off talking about the Redskins and Vikings. But the Vikings showed they deserved a playoff spot the past couple of months, and could have clinched one last night at home against the Redskins. Instead, Washington came out and crushed them. So now the Vikings need to beat Denver and hope a Dallas team with everything locked up can beat Washington. Meanwhile, the 'Skins only have to beat a Dallas team that has nothing to play for. If somehow the Redskins and Vikings lose, the Saints, who have no right making the playoffs this year, will get the spot if they beat the Bears.

Obviously, I would love these playoff scenarios a lot more if the Jets were involved. But I like figuring out the ways a team can get in, or out, and I like seeing the unlikeliest scenarios play out. That's fun for me. I guess creating all of these mini-games within the football season is the byproduct of rooting for a team each year that is most likely not going to be playing in January.

I will be updating regularly during the playoffs - at least to give some predictions. I welcome my readers to send me their playoff picks - I think I'm going to predict the over/unders and winners vs. the spread in each game (with a score). That's always fun come playoff time. I challenge all five of you to join me in this venture.

Merry Christmas.