A PAINFUL REMINDER

Ah, Valentine's Day. A day some spend appreciating what they have, while others pine for what they don't. Or just ignore completely.

While I'd love it if the third category applied, since I'm not a fan of February 14th, and I do spend a lot of time doing the appreciative thing, today I'll focus on the middle category - sort of love lost/never had.

And I really don't think words do as good a job as the pictures, so I'll get right to it with the only disclaimer that my dad asked if I wanted them for any reason, and I said, "Maybe I'll put them on the blog."
There's also this, just for those gluttons for a little extra punishment:

PLAYOFF PICKS - SUPER BOWL XLIII

I hate to burst your bubble, you underdog-rooting football fan, but the Cardinals' ride has ended.
I think I'll be rooting for Arizona in the Super Bowl...I don't think I can really be sure until I actually see the teams and the game starts. The weird thing about the Steelers is that I should hate them, since they kill the Jets, but I really don't. Maybe because I like a good yellow/black combination in my uniforms...I don't know.

I do know that when it comes to these big games, championships specifically, defenses trump offenses. I realize the Cardinals are not your ordinary offense, and I do realize that their defense has played much better during this playoff run.

But the Steelers are head and shoulders better than them defensively, and are more than capable of holding their own offensively.

If the roles were reversed, and the strong defensive team was the underdog, a la the Giants last season, I'd be ready to pick them. But I can't really see the Cardinals getting another win. (Not that I've been lighting the world on fire up until now with my picks these playoffs.) So I think it's the Steelers, and the final score is only as close as this because I think the Cardinals tack something on late for the squares pools:
And here are a few prop bets (I love Super Bowl prop bets):

WILL KURT WARNER PASS JOE MONTANA'S CAREER RECORD FOR SUPER BOWL PASSING YARDS (1142 - WARNER WOULD NEED 364 IN SB XLIII) - I say No, though it will probably be close, because the Cardinals will be slinging playing from behind. I think Warner ends up with 330. (This also means I think Kurt Warner will not surpass his other two Super Bowl passing performances - 414 and 365 [incredible Super Bowl numbers, incidentally] - which is another prop bet.)

I love these - WHO WILL CATCH A PASS FIRST - HINES WARD OR SANTONIO HOLMES? I'm going to say Holmes, though Ward will have the more important catches.

WILL EDGERRIN JAMES SCORE A TOUCHDOWN? I say No.

PLAYER TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN FIRST: WILLIE PARKER OR LARRY FITZGERALD? I don't think Fitzgerald will get in the end zone, believe it or not. I think the Steelers will shut him down. I'm not 100% confident in Parker getting there either, but I'll go with Willie Parker.

PLAYOFF PICKS - WEEK 2

So big problems with the home computer. I don't have access to my fancy helmet graphics, but I want to get this weekend's playoff picks out there. Back to basics:

Ravens at Titans (TEN -3, O/U: 34)
Like many people, I haven't bought into the Titans too much. But I think they're better than the Ravens. I think Tennessee just matches up better with Baltimore than Miami did. Now, Kevin Mawae isn't playing, so I'm not sure if that just devastates Tennessee's line. That could make a big difference...but I'm going to assume that they protect Kerry Collins, and he does just enough to win this game. Not a barn-burner by any stretch of the imagination - Titans 17, Ravens 10

Cardinals at Panthers (CAR -9.5, O/U: 48.5)
That's a pretty big number...especially considering Arizona, which got blown out a number of times this year, actually played the Panthers pretty tough this season. Carolina will win, but I'm not sure it's going to be as easy as that line indicates. Panthers 30, Cardinals 24

Eagles at Giants (NYG -4, O/U: 39.5)
It's become pretty fashionable this week to pick the Eagles...and I think I'm hopping on board that train. I'm not sure I can justify it, other than I think the Eagles have all of their weapons, and the Giants will be hurt by the absence of their big-play receiver. Eagles 24, Giants 21

Chargers at Steelers (PIT -6, O/U: 38)
I don't feel as good about this game a day out than I did when I plotted out the playoffs on paper...but I picked San Diego winning in Pittsburgh, so I'm going to stay with that. I love the stat that San Diego has never won in Pittsburgh in the regular season (0-13), but they're 2-0 there in the post-season. Chargers 20, Steelers 17

PLAYOFF WEEK 1 REACTION

I think the biggest surprise of Week 1 of the NFL playoffs is the fact that four road teams were the favorites, and 2 of those actually won. Home field advantage in the playoffs is so important, and Arizona and San Diego were able to take advantage of that. But Baltimore clearly overwhelmed Miami in Miami, and Philadelphia beat Minnesota in Minnesota...I feel like anytime you win a playoff game on the road, it's quite an accomplishment.

The real feat, though, is if you can win on the road in Week 2.
A couple of other reactions:

SATURDAY
Atlanta at Arizona
-I totally did not see Arizona winning this game. Good for them - I didn't particularly enjoy rooting against them (I did want to see Atlanta win). But I think their run will be short-lived, coming east.
-The Cardinals do have this working in their favor - it's not like they're heading east for a 1pm game - they have the Saturday night game, so the time shouldn't be a factor, at least. Playing a really good team will probably be a bigger factor.
-My final thought on this game is that it was amazing how fast things swung Arizona's way after the fumble on the handoff at the start of the second half. Everything fell apart for the Falcons fast.

Indianapolis at San Diego
-Definitely the pick of the weekend.
The game was a lot closer than I expected - I really thought San Diego would pour it on the Colts...and they probably would have won in regulation if Peyton Manning had not caught the Chargers napping on that long touchdown to Reggie Wayne.
-I put a lot of stock into the Chargers this post-season - our post-season player pool roster has Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson (both posted 0's on Saturday) - but the game turned out the way I hoped....I think next week's matchup with Pittsburgh is going to also be the best game of the weekend.

SUNDAY
Baltimore at Miami
-I was shocked to see Ed Hochuli as referee in this game, after the start to the year he had. I guess he turned it around after the early errors. I'm also glad, after we saw Hochuli once or twice early in the game, CBS addressed why he was doing the game.
-Chad Pennington has never matched up well against a defense like Baltimore's.
-Speaking of the referees, I had never seen the guy who did the Arizona-Atlanta game before, but he was pretty good. I'm not sure what his name was.

Philadelphia at Vikings
-Maybe I was saving up for next weekend's games, where I'm going to be fully interested from 4pm Saturday through 8pm Sunday, but I really tuned out when this game came on. I watched a little, but I was more concerned with getting stuff done around the house. Again - this will not be the case next Sunday at the same time - I'll be glued to San Diego-Pittsburgh.

I'll have picks by late Friday or early Saturday.

Inspired by the Southern Bureau, I might try to get into some baseball this week. I also might touch on the Jets' coaching situation. Apparently Boston College coach Jeff Jagodzinski is putting his job on the line just to interview with the Jets. I might advise him that it's not really worth it.

PLAYOFF PICKS - WEEK 1

Every so often I strike gold making these picks (remember when I absolutely nailed Dallas-Seattle?), and that's what keeps me making them. This year, I'm not in any kind of spread or over/under pool, so I'm doing this for the love of the game. (I am in a playoff player pool - possibly more information to come on that, especially if we end up doing well.)

ATLANTA AT ARIZONA (ATL -2, O/U: 51)
Good-bye Cardinals, hope you've enjoyed your division championship. This has the potential to be an entertaining game, actually - but Atlanta is the better team. They've been consistent all year, and they'll come into this game loose, I bet. The Cardinals will be tight, trying to prove they belong. And they won't do well:
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO (IND -1, O/U: 51)
The more I think about this game, the more sense it makes to me - San Diego is going to win. And they'll go on a run - I think to the Super Bowl. As I mentioned in my Week 17 recap, this is the team that has come so close so often the past few years. Then this year, they looked like they would be eliminated three weeks ago, and everything kept going their way. Call them this year's version of the 2006 Steelers, last year's Giants, whatever. They have this going for them - they have a home game in the first round, which neither of those teams did. I feel pretty good about a San Diego win against an Indianapolis team that isn't as good as its record:
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI (BAL -3, O/U: 37.5)
I love Miami (this year). I love Chad Pennington. But I don't have a good feeling about this game. I don't like the way Pennington matches up against the Ravens defense. I think that's the biggest factor - Pennington will see pressure the likes of which he hasn't seen all season, and the Dolphins won't get anything going on offense. I'll be rooting like heck to be wrong here, and rooting for the Dolphins to win, but I'm picking Baltimore:
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA (PHI -3, O/U: 41.5)
Perhaps it's because I never bought into Minnesota from the beginning of the year, and I don't think they really belong in the playoffs (though they've earned their spot more than some of the other teams in the playoffs), but I don't see them beating Philadelphia. I'm not sure exactly how this is going to shake out, but I see Philly winning on a late David Akers field goal. Maybe overtime, maybe just in the final minutes:
If I'm reading the point spreads I found correctly, which I'm 99% sure I am, how about the fact that all four home teams are underdogs? So, for entertainment purposes, if you're scoring at home, it's:
1) Atlanta and the under
2) San Diego and the over (I guess - don't these usually have half-point increments?)
3) Baltimore and the under
4) Philly (push) and the under

SUPER BOWL MATCHUPS

If you've read the blog before (and if you haven't, welcome!), you know I have just a touch of the crazy. Not in the 'bite the head off a kitten' sense, but in the statistical sense.

And my number one obsession is with seeing a new matchup in the championship each year (mostly just with baseball and football, though it crosses my mind at the end of the NBA and NHL seasons).

This year's playoff batch presents a lot of possibilities for a new matchup - and features a lot of teams that follow the rules:
-New York Giants (4 Super Bowls, 4 different opponents)
-Minnesota (4, 4)
-Indianapolis and Philadelphia (2, 2)
(Funny that one of the all-time rule-breakers, the Oakland Raiders, are big-time rule-followers in my book, with 5 appearances against 5 opponents. The Patriots and Broncos are 6 for 6.)

The teams that have no restrictions this year are: Atlanta, Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia, Tennessee, San Diego, and Indianapolis. Here are the restrictions:
-Baltimore and New York: Saw it in Super Bowl XXXV
-Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh/Miami: Minnesota, as I mentioned, has played 4 separate Super Bowl opponents, but two of them are in the mix again this year.

With my expectation that Miami and Minnesota will be first-round losses, it's really only the Giants and Ravens that are a threat - don't think the Ravens can't plow through the AFC.

For the rest of my picks in this weekend's games, check back a little later today.

NFL WEEK 17 RECAP

The 2008 NFL season is over.

Congratulations to Chad Pennington on winning the AFC East with the Miami Dolphins. I was reminded watching the game of the Jets' last division championship, which they clinched on the final day of the 2002 season, when Pennington beat the Packers (led by quarterback Brett Favre) at the Meadowlands. I thought that was kind of funny. Anyway, it couldn't happen to a better guy. Of course, Pennington handled it with class...though I wouldn't have blamed him if he had flipped off the crowd on his way off the field. I hope he wins the Super Bowl.

Before we get to the playoffs this week, though, a look at the week's final season:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 17: A couple of games came down to a final field goal - but all involved teams that had most everything wrapped up. I guess the Panthers-Saints goes as the best, because the Panthers earned themselves a bye with the win, after the Saints came back in a huge way in the game, and Carolina still managed to pull off a last-second win.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 17: The Ravens went out and took care of business - I'll give the nod to either Joe Flacco or Le'Ron McClain - Flacco had 297 yards passing, McClain had 70 yards rushing and scored twice.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 17: The Dallas Cowboys laid an absolute egg against the Eagles with everything on the line. (The Broncos didn't play much better controlling their own destiny, nor did the Buccaneers, but the Cowboys were the worst.) The Eagles did a nice job, but the Cowboys did worse than the Eagles did well.

BEST GAME IN PLAYOFFS: Next week I think the best matchup might be Eagles-Vikings, though there's something intriguing about that Chargers-Colts game too. I think the Chargers have the potential to be the Colts of two years ago - a very average regular season, getting hot at the right time and making their championship run. This is the same team, after all, that has been a playoff threat then disappointment in recent years - maybe this is the year they turn it around. Not that I want them to...but it might happen.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN PLAYOFFS: There's not much here to predict - this prediction stuff is all over (though I will pick playoff games again starting Friday/Saturday). I will say this though - I'm in a playoff player pool, where you pick players with the hope that they get lots of points and go deep into the playoffs. My friend who I'm doing it with and I were talking about who would be a good quarterback pick, because there's really no obvious choice, the way Kurt Warner has fallen apart and with no other clear cut great quarterback out there this year. It occurred to me this weekend that Matt Ryan might be the choice - because I bet Atlanta upsets Arizona next week, and he puts up good numbers.
-Last Week: I said a 24-10 win by the Dolphins (off by 7 points there), on a 19-23, 279-yard day, 1 throwing, 1 rushing touchdown for Chad Pennington. He was 22-30 for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just another solid Pennington day...and my prediction was close enough for me.

**UPDATE** - Eric Mangini has just been fired by the Jets. I would have fired him last week, after the Seahawks loss, but that was totally reactive. After what I read about Woody Johnson (Jets owner) this morning, I suspect that this was a reactionary move. Maybe they should have taken a week to cool off. I don't love the idea of starting over with a new coach. I just hope a replacement is named quickly...and I hope the other reports recently that Brett Favre did not like playing for Mangini did not factor into this decision.

So here we are again, the Jets looking for another head coach. Same old Jets.

NFL WEEK 16 RECAP

One more week - and there are some good games to watch next week. But first, the recap of the penultimate week of the season:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 16: The Chiefs-Dolphins game was pretty good - lots of scoring in tough conditions. The Giants-Panthers was also very good (though due to the circumstances of the Jets game I didn't really enjoy it) with a lot on the line. Games like the Colts-Jaguars, Bears-Packers, and Bills-Broncos weren't bad either.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 16: I'm going to avoid talking about all the teams who had a chance to do something to help themselves when it came to the playoffs in Week 16 and failed - there are a lot of them (Jets first and foremost). Instead, I'm going to highlight the Atlanta Falcons, who no one expected anything out of, and came into Week 16 needing a win for the playoffs, and got it. That makes them the best performance of the week.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 16: I don't care that it was snowing, I don't care that it was another east coast one o'clock game. The Arizona Cardinals don't deserve the playoffs any more than the Jets do. Throw Kurt Warner's 30-yard effort in with the big-picture 47-7 loss to the Patriots.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 17: With lots on the line it can either be Jets-Dolphins or Chargers-Broncos. So help me if the Broncos lose and the Chargers get into the playoffs. That would upset me as a Jets fan. The Patriots-Bills game will probably intense too.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 17: I'm going to go with my heart again, and predict a huge playoff-entering performance from Chad Pennington. I say 19-23 for 279 yards and 1 throwing TD, 1 rushing. Dolphins, 24-10.
-Last Week: Way off with Kurt Warner and the Cardinals.

I THINK I MAY HATE THE JETS

I'm so mad right now. Problem is, I don't know who I'm mad at.

I don't know if I'm mad at myself because I saw this coming for weeks, and I didn't let myself believe the Jets would take a page from the Mets' end-of-season playbook and take a nosedive. I knew for a long time everything would come down to that last game of the season against Miami, but I'm mad for never thinking that it would be Miami who would be in the driver's seat when that game came along.

I'm mad at Eric Mangini for playing for field position early in the fourth quarter when he could have kicked a field goal and for doing the exact opposite later in the game, playing with awful field position. And for letting his team imitate the 1994 Jets in terms of collapses.

I'm mad at Brett Favre for being so old and wearing down as the season has gone on. It's no coincidence that he's questioning his ability to stay in the game and whether he's too old and the Jets look like a team that's out there sleepwalking through their final month.

Most of all, though, I'm mad at the franchise. I feel like a little kid - I just want to kick them in the shins and yell, "I hate you I hate you I hate you". I feel like I'm wasting so much energy on these teams for nothing in return.

I hate that the Jets are taking 10+ years off of my dad's priority on their season ticket list.

I hate that the Jets have never had their own stadium.

I hate that the Jets turned their back on one of their most successful quarterbacks ever and he's going to lead his new team to the playoffs on the field against the Jets.

I'm feeling very angry right now, and I don't want to write anything I may regret. It's hard to say that after 30 years I'm just going to stop rooting for the Jets forever.

So it's not a permanent divorce...yet. But we're taking a break. Next week, I'm a Chad Pennington fan. I'm flat-out rooting against the Jets. I'm not proud of it, but I feel like I have to do it.

First of all, I want to see Pennington do well.

Secondly, the Jets don't deserve the playoffs.

And lastly, if they made the playoffs, they wouldn't win anyway. At least with Pennington, a team has a chance.

When the season is over and I've had a chance to cool down, we'll see where things stand. But I'll tell you this - I'm not looking forward to an off-season of Brett Favre stringing the Jets along, only to look like he's washed up when the season gets into its late stages. I feel like he's already set the franchise back a couple of years. If he hangs around any longer they'll be going backwards even more.

I know this - I don't think I could make it through an NFL season without a team to root for. So I don't think I'll be totally jumping ship on the Jets. But we're certainly cooling things down for a while. Starting in Week 17.

JETS-BRONCOS RECAP

I never really felt good about this Jets game. Perhaps it was the 4 o'clock start, knowing that when the game was over my Thanksgiving break was also over. Perhaps it was the Jets futility against the Broncos in recent years...or at least the fact that Denver gives them problems, even the games the Jets win. Perhaps it's the fact that every remaining game on the Jets schedule makes me feel this way...no exceptions.

But I'll tell you one thing - I will not feel the same way if the Jets end up playing the Broncos again this year.

The Broncos are going to win the AFC West. No question about that. And their win over the Jets on Sunday might have cost the Jets a first-round bye. But the Jets are still in a position where they control their destiny, and they are still in position to win the AFC East. So it's a long shot that these two teams would meet in anything but the AFC Championship game (the Broncos would most likely get the number one seed if they advance to the second round) - but give me the Jets in that matchup.

For some reason, the Jets from the first quarter of the season showed up to play this game. Not sure what exactly caused that. My bet is it was because they were playing from behind. That just hasn't been happening lately, and that's why the Jets had won five in a row.

But it wasn't just the turnovers, or the trouble in the passing game - the Jets were still able to keep it close considering all that. It was the defense.

This was not the same defense that shut down the Tennessee running game last week. This was the defense that gives receivers way too much room to catch throws and lets a running back cut through them. This was the defense that let Cincinnati and Kansas City play close games against them, and the defense that couldn't beat Oakland.

And it can't continue.

You can tell me that had Jerricho Cotchery held onto that reverse and gone all the way (he had a wide open field in front of him, but fumbled, and that was returned for a touchdown) the game would have played out very differently, and I'll believe you. That's why I say I take the Jets in a rematch. But the fact is, the Jets fell behind and couldn't come back. That's what they kept doing early in the season. And it's not a recipe for success the rest of 2008.

PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO CONFIDENT

The following message was e-mailed to my dad the other day, from the Jets, under the heading "Playoff Ticket News" (and which he forwarded to me with his message, "They sound confident".):

It has come to our attention that there is some confusion with this years Playoff invoices. This week you will be receiving Playoff invoices in the mail. The invoice is also available online. The invoice will contain prices for the Wildcard, Divisional, and Championship games. As a season ticket holder you should ONLY pay for the Divisional and Championship events. These events are 08DIVIS, 08CHAMP, 08DPK, 08CPK. Full payment is due on or before December 15, 2008 in order to secure your playoff ticket request. If you are paying by check your playoff payment should include 2 games, the divisional game and the championship game, and any associated parking. If you are paying by credit card the invoiced amount is correct. If the first game is a wildcard game instead of a divisional game, a credit will be issued to your season ticket account for the difference.

"If the first game is a wildcard game instead of a divisional game....." I understand there's a business aspect here, and it's better to collect more money (for a more expensive divisional game, I guess) than less (for the first round wildcard game), and better to pay people out than to go collecting again...but I'm not entirely comfortable with this.

I'm secretly hoping the Jets host two playoff games. Every time I write about it, though, I couch it with the words like, "If the Jets do what they are supposed to do the rest of the way, and win the games they should....." Because the Jets don't always do what they're supposed to do.

I think mostly of 1993, when at halftime of a Jets-Dolphins game we were at I had the stupid idea of saying to my dad, "How do we get Super Bowl tickets? This is awesome!" I brought it up because the Jets were leading 24-6, in a game there was no way they were going to lose that would put them alone in first place in the division. Then Dan Marino brought the Dolphins back, culminating with the fake spike that ruined the Jets season. They went from 6-4 to 6-10.

All I'm saying is that these things happen to the Jets. And don't think someone like devious Bill Belichick hasn't gone and gotten a copy of this letter and secretly mailed it out to the Jets' remaining opponents, especially the Bills and Dolphins.

I hope, hope, hope I'll be sitting at a divisional playoff game at the Meadowlands in January, and dare I say it, an AFC Championship Game...but I'm not going to talk about it. I hope the Jets' business office doesn't say much about it anymore either.

WHAT TO DO WITH A JETS-LESS SUNDAY

Despite the fears that have been ingrained in every Jets fan as the season winds down (like the teams that are headed for the playoffs only to have the season veer into high draft pick territory...1993 comes to mind) I have one eye firmly on the playoffs this year.

And as such, with a Sunday where I could devote much more of my attention to other teams around the league, since the Jets played on Thursday, I present to you my thoughts on who Jets fans need to worry about for the remainder of the season.

Tennessee: Their win today lifted them to 10-0 - so they will be undefeated when the Jets go to Tennessee next weekend. If Tennessee wins, there's no one the rest of the way who is too tough on their schedule- they might go undefeated the rest of the way. At the very least, they will lock up the number one seed in the AFC by beating the Jets. If the Jets go in there and beat Tennessee (and then take care of business in the rest of their fairly tough schedule - which is no given), I think they have a hold on the number two seed in the AFC. (Goes without saying even if the Titans lose to the Jets, they still have a pretty strong lock on the number one seed.)

Pittsburgh: Boy are they streaky. But by beating San Diego, unimpressive as they looked on offense, I think they present the biggest challenge to the bye week for the Jets (again - last time I'll say it - we're going under the assumption here that the Jets at least win 3 of their final 4 games at San Fran and Seattle and home versus Buffalo and Miami).

Denver: The Jets also have a game against Denver, which doesn't worry me as much as it did at the beginning of the year. I have a suspicion, not having had a look at other games that week, that this will be flexed to the Sunday night 8pm spot, so it'll be in the national spotlight. But I think regardless the AFC West winner is destined for the number four seed in the AFC.

Then there's the wild card:

There are 4 teams in the wild card hunt right now at 6-4 (could be five with Buffalo playing Monday night) - New England, Indianapolis, Miami, and Baltimore. I think one of those teams isn't even in contention for much longer, and since you can't bet against New England and Indy, it's between Miami and Baltimore. I think Miami hangs around this year, and Baltimore fades. So watch those three teams (but don't sleep on the Ravens yet).

There are also the Jaguars and the Chargers at 4-6 - one of them will likely be a non-factor in the next couple of weeks, and one will give the teams at 6-4 a bit of a run. I'm not sure which one, since they've both been such underachievers. But I'm sure they'll put up a fight.

I know it sounds like I'm talking big with the Jets only having a one-game lead over everyone else in the division, and this could all change in a week. Believe me - I'm a Jets fan - I know how fragile this is. But that's the whole point here - we need to account for every possible scenario to make sure the Jets don't fall out of contention. And as noted above, there are quite a few teams to watch every Sunday whose outcomes will affect the Jets. On Sunday, the Jets only picked up a game on the Ravens as teams with winning records all kept up the pace.

And next Sunday, the Patriots play the Dolphins. If the Jets lose to Tennessee, one of those teams will be back in a tie for first place in the division.

It's enough to give me a weekly headache.

HALF AND HALF

The second-half Jets nearly ruined my night.

The first-half Jets were awesome. They were driving the ball up and down the field, scoring seemingly at will, making it look like another easy win. The first-half Jets were the full-game Jets from the St. Louis game - and the way they were playing, 47 points didn't necessarily look out of the question.

But then the second-half Jets showed up.

And they came early - allowing the Patriots to get on the board one more time before the half - just like the Tom Brady Patriots did so well - keeping a cold crowd in the stadium and in the game - changing the minds, I'm sure, of those who were about to leave at halftime to beat the traffic, giving them hope that the second half might be more of a game.

The second-half Jets made sure that was the case.

They lost all aggressiveness on offense. Not the Brett Favre type of aggressiveness that results in turnovers, but the aggressiveness where you say, "I'm going to go out and score on you", and then you go and score on the other team. That was the first-half Jets' attitude, and it worked well. The second-half Jets, taking a page out of the Herman Edwards playbook, sat on the ball, didn't go for the jugular, and nearly paid the price.

After the Patriots tied it, the first-half Jets showed up again, drove down the field, and took the lead again. But they left too much time on the clock, and the second-half defense still was on the field, allowing the Patriots to score with a second left. That defense gave up way too many yards in way too short an amount of time, and it's probably a good thing the Jets won the overtime coin toss.

Because by that point, the first-half Jets offense was back. The defense was not.

The Jets are all alone in first place in the AFC East because of what they did in the first half Thursday night. The first half of that game showed the Jets can hang with anyone come the post-season. The second half showed their playoff stay could be short-lived.

If the first-half Jets stick around for the second half of this season, they'll have themselves a first-round bye come January. And maybe even a berth in the Super Bowl.

THE REST OF THE WAY

Yesterday's 'breaking' Gary Carter news put this off a day, so I apologize for that. But here's a look at the Jets' schedule the rest of the way, at the halfway point of the season:

Week 10: vs. St. Louis (2-6)
Week 11: at New England (5-3)
Week 12: at Tennessee (8-0)
Week 13: vs. Denver (5-4)
Week 14: at San Francisco (2-6)
Week 15: vs. Buffalo (5-3)
Week 16: at Seattle (2-6)
Week 17: vs. Miami (4-4)

It should be an easy schedule - those teams are a combined 33-32 - not tremendously intimidating. But taken one-by-one - the Jets have a tough road to go.

The 3 NFC West games remaining are all against teams that are 2-6 - but St. Louis has been playing well, and will give the Jets a run for their money on Sunday (though without Steven Jackson the Jets will probably win). The other two games are very winnable - but they come with 2 west coast trips in three weeks, with a tough game against Buffalo in between. So that's not great timing.

Of course, there are three division games left, with a tough one at New England starting it off on Thursday night. The plus side is that the Buffalo and Miami games are home games - but all three are games that could go either way. The Jets had better hope they have some kind of playoff berth wrapped up by the final game of the season - I don't like the idea of Miami coming to town in the last week led by Chad Pennington, looking to bump the Jets out of a playoff situation.

Then there are the final two AFC games against non-division opponents. There's the Titans, who will be 8-2 at worst, 10-0 at best, when the Jets play them in two weeks. And the Broncos, who showed Thursday night just how dangerous they could be - even if they go into the fourth quarter trailing.

All of the teams the Jets have left to play have given them fits in the past. So as much as you might read about a 'favorable' Jets schedule the rest of the way (SportsIllustrated mentioned it in this week's issue) - I beg to differ. And this comes from someone who's usually overly optimistic.

HAPPY TIMES ARE HERE AGAIN

It's November. There was frost on my car this morning when I got up to go to work. A lot of frost. It was dark at 4:45pm.

But I don't care about any of that.

Why? I hear you ask.

Because we're halfway through the NFL season. Things are starting to develop.

Thursday night games start this week and take us right through the end of the season.

And the Jets are in a 3-way tie for first place in the AFC East with full control over their destiny.

That ensures that the next two months will zip by.

And as much as I wrote yesterday about the Jets having shot themselves in the foot by losing to San Diego and Oakland, thanks to the way things have shaken out elsewhere, they're actually sitting very pretty - even when you look at the wild card.

Sunday brings the Rams...then a Thursday nighter against the Patriots.

It may be November cold, but things are just warming up with the Jets.

GOOD-BYE CHAD, AND THANK YOU

In Brett Favre, the Jets are getting one of the best quarterbacks ever to play in the NFL. As a result, they're going to have to part ways with one of the best quarterbacks the franchise has ever had.

I hope the unceremonious departure Pennington is forced to take from New York isn't accompanied by kicks in the rear as he leaves. No, he didn't have a strong arm. Yes, he was injured quite a bit. And no, he never led the team to the ultimate goal of a Super Bowl - but he provided Jets fans with more thrills than most of us have experienced in our football-rooting lives.

He won more than he lost - and despite never making it all the way, he did win in the playoffs. Which is a lot more than other Jets quarterbacks can claim.

And what did he get for it? Constant complaints that he wasn't good enough. Direct competition from a totally inferior quarterback. More lack of respect...and more calls for a replacement...even after leading the team to a surprise playoff appearance in 2006. (I take part of the blame for buying his jersey. Sorry, Chad. At least now, with Favre, I can try to salvage my Glenn Foley #4 jersey.)

Pennington's resume includes a playoff appearance in his first season as the Jets starter - a season in which he led a resurgence from a 1-4 start to a 9-7 finish, and with a victory over Brett Favre's Packers in the final game of the season, a trip to the playoffs. All Pennington did was lead a blowout of the Colts, 41-0, before losing to Oakland the next week.

With expectations high in 2003, Pennington suffered the first of many season-derailing injuries, breaking his wrist in a pre-season game against the Giants. He came back from that to tear his rotator cuff in 2004, but missed just three games as the Jets went 10-6 to make the playoffs again.

In that season, Pennington deserved a better fate. His arm was trusted even less than usual because of the injury, but he led the Jets to a playoff win in San Diego. In Pittsburgh the following week, Pennington put the Jets in position to win the game twice, and of course, the kicker failed to hit the game-winning field goals.

2005 was a rough year - a horrible start, then another shoulder injury, and Pennington was done until 2006...when he threw for a personal-high 3,352 yards in 16 starts, and led the Jets to the playoffs. Last year he started just 8 games, and you got the impression that the arm injuries had taken their toll.

By my count, Chad Pennington was 32-30 as a starter with the Jets, 31-22 before last year. Which is important, because last year was probably an indication of what would have come this year - more games of 125 yards passing...which just wasn't enough. But it also was a product of his offensive line, which couldn't offer him any protection. Perhaps Pennington could have more success with a better team this year.

Everything you ever heard about Chad Pennington as a Jets fan was positive. Which is why I hope after the Jets release him, he gets picked up by another team quickly, and gets a chance to play. And I hope it's a team that will play at the Meadowlands in the coming season. And I hope Pennington gets the thunderous ovation that he deserves...and maybe Brett Favre takes note that you can leave a place with class, even when you haven't been treated like a god your entire career.

HOPE FOR 2008

I know football is in the rear-view mirror, but allow me one more posting, to end a disappointing football season on a note of hope.

The schedule isn't out yet, but the Jets know who their opponents will be in 2008:

At home: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, St. Louis, Arizona
On the road: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee, San Francisco, Seattle

Now, other than the fact that it's a pretty weak schedule (and the Jets didn't even finish in last place - imagine Miami's schedule!), the schedule features the Jets against the NFC West. Good things happen when the West comes up in the Jets' NFC Opponents rotation.

1998 - This was before the realignment that resulted in a very balanced schedule. The NFC West at this time was Atlanta, San Francisco, New Orleans, Carolina, and Saint Louis (the Arizona Cardinals were in the NFC East, and the Seahawks were still in the AFC). The Jets went just 2-2 against the West (not playing New Orleans, and losing the opening day heartbreaker to the 49ers), but they made it to the AFC Championship game.

The Jets played the NFC East in 1999, the Central in 2000, then:

2001 - Again, the Jets were just 2-2 against the NFC West, not playing Atlanta, but they made the playoffs.

The Jets faced the NFC North in 2002, the East again in 2003, then:

2004 - In the realigned divisions, the Jets took 3 out of 4 from San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis, losing to the Rams on the last day of the season, but still clinching a playoff berth. They beat the Chargers in the playoffs, but lost to the Steelers.

In 2005 it was the NFC South, then the North in 2006, and the East last year. It's the West's turn again in 2008...and good things happen when the Jets play the NFC West. There have been playoff appearances in years where the Jets play the other divisions, but there's something to the fact that the Jets have made the playoffs the last three times they have played the likes of the 49ers and Rams.

And I've got nothing else, really, to sustain me from this 2007 season, so I'll just hang my hat on that.

RATTLING THE CAGE

If you're a Patriots fan, or a casual observer of the NFL, perhaps you're thinking anxiously about Tom Brady spending his time away from the team with his girlfriend Gisele in New York City. 'Of all places!' you might say. 'New York City!? Why, isn't that where the Giants are from?!" Well, yes it is.

And if you're a Giants fan, you probably love the fact that Tom Brady spends his off days in New York City. 'He's away from his team,' you say. 'He's distracted, and he has to hear the New York media constantly badgering him....' Wait. Stop right there. He hears it, and I don't think that's a good thing. Because I'm sure he's going to use it against you.

Exhibit A: Tuesday's New York Post:

Not only does the newspaper put Brady and his foot cast (air boot, whatever....it's a precaution that will be long gone by game time in two weeks) on the cover with the headline "Who's Afraid of Tom Brady Now?", but the accompanying article has the headline "Flowery Tom A Posy Patsie". Good work, New York Post. Your Giants press credentials should be revoked.

Exhibit B: Q104.3's promotion:

A classic rock radio station in New York City is encouraging fans to print out and cut out a mask of Bridget Moynahan, a la the Jessica Simpson face masks in Dallas to taunt Tony Romo, or the bimbo masks at Fenway Park to taunt A-Rod. You may remember, or need reminding, that Bridget Moynahan is Tom Brady's former girlfriend who he impregnated, then broke up with, and has spent all of his free time in New York City instead of, as The Wife points out, in LA to see his child. So this might actually be an effective taunt (masks of the baby might haunt him more, to be quite honest), but that's the second thing happening so far this week that is bound to piss off Tom Brady.

Exhibit C: Because I'm sure Brady is reading the New York papers, getting himself psyched for the week and a half off - Gary Myers in the New York Daily News on Tuesday, predicting Giants 31, Patriots 28 in the Super Bowl. I'm sure that'll tick him off, too.

And Brady's got a front-row seat, spending his time in New York. Don't think the man who can motivate a 16-0, 3-time Super Bowl champion team can't turn this stuff into an outrage that will psyche his team up. Don't rattle the cage.

Tom Brady doesn't often have two bad games in a row. Heck, he doesn't often have one bad game in a row. But he's coming off a bad game in the AFC Championship against San Diego. That means he's NOT going to play poorly in the Super Bowl...in fact, he'll be above the top of his game. And this all is just playing with fire.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES RECAP

That was an exciting day of football. The bad news: I lost my bet, so I'm out of my pool. The good news: I feel like this NFL season was worth it - we've got ourselves a new Super Bowl matchup. My thoughts:

PATRIOTS 21, CHARGERS 12
The Chargers blew this opportunity. When Tom Brady looks as bad as he looked in the early part of this game, you need to pounce, and pounce quick. All the Chargers could muster were field goals...and that's not going to do it. LaDainian Tomlinson may have been hurt - but continues to be invisible in playoff games. I need to stress this - he does get yards in playoff games - but he hasn't changed a playoff game, and he hasn't put up a super performance in a playoff game. And he was a non-factor (again, albeit with an injury) in this game. But the Chargers put up a fight with the likes of Michael Turner and Darren Sproles...and Phillip Rivers played but could not get the ball into the end zone.

One other thing worth commenting on - did you happen to see when Nate Kaeding made his third field goal - just before the half, which made it 14-9 Pats? He started celebrating like the Chargers had just taken the lead or won the game. Take it easy Kaeding...maybe if you had kicked like that in your other playoff games, a 14-9 deficit at halftime of the AFC Championship Game wouldn't feel like such a big deal.

GIANTS 23, PACKERS 20 OT
The only thing wrong with this game was that it hit the over. And I'll tell you why before I go any further. The third quarter - both teams got drives sustained (after defensive stops) by penalties. The penalty on the Packers, which seemed legit, leading to the Giants' TD, and then the Sam Madison penalty, which I've never seen a replay of, which seemed like payback for the Packers' penalty on the Giants' drive. I maintain had those penalties not happened, the game would have been 13-13 going into overtime, and I'd be sitting pretty in my pool. But I digress (I really am taking the loss in the pool a lot better than I thought I would).

The Giants pulled off the upset in another fantastic game by Eli Manning. I can't believe the maturing of Eli Manning that we're watching this post-season. And I'm surprisingly happy for him. I should clarify - I've never hated the Giants. I certainly dislike certain people involved with the Giants (not a Coughlin fan), but I'm pretty indifferent to the Giants. I'll root for them, I'll root against them, depending on the situation, but I'm indifferent. Mostly, usually, (not lately), I find them boring to watch, so I don't even bother. But I've jumped on their bandwagon, and I'm rooting for them this post-season. And I'm really happy for them and for Eli Manning. (And other than the Super Bowl matchup thing, I couldn't lose with this NFC Championship, because I like Favre and the Packers a lot, too.)

The Super Bowl matchup now is one that has never happened before (YES!). And it's interesting, because I'm willing to bet that never before has there been a Super Bowl matchup not where both teams played in the regular season (that's happened many times before), but where they played in the last week of the regular season. And if that's the case (and they have played in the last week of the regular season), I bet it wasn't as intense as Giants-Patriots in Week 17 of this past season. I wonder a couple of things right away:

1) Who does it benefit more? The Patriots, who game plan so well, or the Giants, who now have not only a recent game plan against this team, but a game plan that worked, and just needs a little tweaking?

2) The teams battled hard just a few weeks ago. Is there any carryover into the big game?

3) Don't you get the feeling the Patriots would rather not play the Giants? New York is a team that knows them, having already played them, and is hot. 10 straight wins on the road. Playing its best football. Things seem to be breaking for them. If I were New England, I'd rather be playing the Packers, with their old quarterback, instead of the Giants, with their young quarterback playing the best football of their career.

One last point - I wrote this week about the Giants being a better team without Jeremy Shockey (or, at least, Eli Manning being a better quarterback without him). I can't believe I totally forgot about Tiki Barber. What a difference it must make for the Giants to not have him badmouthing the coach, putting down the quarterback. He must be steaming over at NBC watching the Giants do this....and I kind of like that.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

This isn't the first time I've been an outsider. I spent about half of my life (I'm pushing 30 now, and I was an odd duck for about the first 15 years) as more of a social observer than interactor. So maybe I'm suited to be a fan of the Mets and Jets. Occasionally, I'm invited to the party - make an appearance, have a little fun, go home early. (Jets - 1991, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006; Mets - 1988, 1999, 2000, 2006). Once in a while, I'm the hit of the party - 1986 - but that's when I was 8, and my cute kid-ness covered up the other inadequacies.

Anyway, a look at the past couple of years, playoff-wise, shows that once again, I'm on the outside looking in, while all of the people around me are having a blast:


The toughest part is living in New England, where the Boston Red Sox and New England Patriots have had tremendous success, just about from the time when I moved up here until this day. (Really - starting with the Patriots making the Super Bowl in 1996, then lots of Red Sox playoff appearances, then both teams winning multiple championships.) It's bad enough the Jets and Patriots play in the same division - but seeing all of this success right in my own backyard, while I'm always left out - it's rough. The equivalent of this is you make a friend at school, bring him/her home to your neighborhood, and the popular kid next door, who doesn't go to your school, steals your friend and they have a bunch of fun together, and all of a sudden you're a third wheel.

Then there's the other options. I could have been a Yankees fan...or a Giants fan. And then I would be happy - celebrating recent championships or championship game appearances (Giants - 3 Super Bowl appearances in my lifetime [2 wins], Jets - 0...and we all know about Yankees vs. Mets), instead of watching smarter team-pickers than I having more success than me. This group ranges from acquaintances to close friends to members of my own family. So that's just a constant reminder of bad choices...but, in the end, appropriate ones.

Of course, we all know about my second choice. The Packers are a team I've always rooted for when my real team fades. During the 1990's, it was the Packers who were making playoff appearances year after year, while the Jets were going 4-12, 3-13, 1-15, etc. But, they're a second choice - they're not my team. Plus, they weren't even tremendously successful...one championship, one other Super Bowl appearance. I guess that's the friend you kind of have fun with, but you don't see very often, and maybe they don't even consider you a friend. You're like a hanger-on.

Then there's the rivals. The Patriots we've already commented on....but for years the teams the Mets couldn't beat were the ones who stood in their way - the Atlanta Braves for many years, and the Philadelphia Phillies this past, horrid, horrible year. And that's watching the kid you hate, the bully, having fun, getting all the rewards, being Mr. Popular, even though he's a jerk.

And, finally, there's the new blood. I'm sitting here, nearly 30 years old, and the teams I root for (I'll even throw the Rangers in there) have won two championships....one if I take away the Rangers. The playoff appearances I could even count on my fingers...maybe a couple of toes. And then there's the Arizona Diamondbacks, who broke the Mets' record for success out of the gate (1998, created, 2001 championship - the Mets were 1962, 1969), and are back on a successful run again. And the Rockies - who are on the upswing and made the World Series this year. This isn't the strongest argument in the world, but it's fresh in my mind. It's like your younger brother becoming more popular with your own friends, just when you've established some friendships. Not that I'd know.

So here I am, on the outside looking in. Sure looks like a lot of fun. I'm going to go back to watching TV now.