HERE'S HOW IT IS TODAY

OK. So I'm rooting for Chad Pennington today. For one lonely NFL week out of my 30 years on this earth, I'm rooting against the Jets. Strangely, that means I'm rooting for the team I've had a burning hatred for every other year - the Miami Dolphins.

Now, with the strong winds in Buffalo today, anything could happen, and the Bills might beat the Patriots...and if that happens, and a Jets win puts them into the playoffs as a division champ, maybe I'll root for the Jets. But I can't say right now - I need to see what I decide when and if that situation presents itself.

I'm less angry with the Jets now than I was a week ago. I'm very angry, though, with Jets fans. That's much of the reason I want Pennington to win on the Jets' home field, to stick it to the people who cheered when he was hurt a year ago. And that's part of the reason I'm not going to be there - first of all because I'm not going through that hassle of attending a Jets game in New Jersey with zero parking for a team that will most likely lose (though I will do it next week for the playoffs if they win the division), but mostly because I don't want to be around more people booing Pennington.

A COUPLE OF OTHER THINGS:
-I apologize for the lack of images the past few days - I'm not at the home computer, so I'm going sans pictures.

-I thought it was funny the other day that the Southern Bureau suggested I root for the Panthers. Funny because here I am this week rooting for the Dolphins, who the Southern Bureau, if he rooted for any NFL team his entire life it was Miami, and he's suggesting I go to Carolina. For the record, I'm not looking for a new team. But I do enjoy occasionally rooting for Carolina anyway.

-I'm actually rooting against them today, now that I bring it up, because I want Atlanta to win the NFC South. One of my favorite stats in sports right now is that the team that finishes last in the NFC South one year wins the division the following year. And if Atlanta wins and Carolina loses, that will happen again.

Enjoy the final regular season week of the 2008 NFL season. And good luck, Chad Pennington.

REFLECTIONS ON WEEK 12

This is not to be confused with the recap of Week 12, which will come tomorrow. But rather, it's a quick touch-base, based on what I wrote last week, about the teams the Jets (and Jets fans) need to worry about.

Titans: Well, the Titans just aren't very good. They're good, but they're not your typical 10-0 type of team. They're kind of like the Jaguars have been the past couple of years, where you see them in the playoffs, and you wonder how they went 12-4...a solid team, but they're not going to win the Super Bowl. Not sure they'll win a playoff game. They might still get the number-one seed in the AFC, though.

Steelers: The Steelers have a tiebreaker over the Jets, so they're still the number two seed right now. And they're kind of up and down - because their quarterback is so up and down. They're the playoff-tried team that probably poses the biggest threat to the Jets the rest of the way (assuming, as I will throughout this entry, that the Jets do what they need to do).

Broncos: I'll still worry about them until I see the Jets beat them next Sunday with my own two eyes (the Jets do not have a history of success against Denver), but I'm not too scared of them. I wrote about them earlier in the year as having one of the seemingly easier schedules in the league, and they haven't done much better than .500 with that schedule. So I think that pretty much sums things up about the Broncos.

Ravens: Until proven otherwise, I'm going to maintain that the Ravens' big win was more a reflection of the disaster that the Eagles have become than an accurate portrait of Baltimore. I think the Ravens are more the team that led 10-7 at the half (good, but not great), than the team that outscored their opponent 26-0 in the second half. But that win has them sitting pretty this week.

Patriots/Dolphins: A big win for New England, beating Miami. The Patriots also helped out the Jets by handing the Dolphins their second division loss. The Patriots moved themselves a notch ahead of Miami, but that can change back next week.

Colts: I think the Colts may have finished off San Diego Sunday night, and they're certainly playing themselves back into contention the past couple of weeks. Still, they're not looking like they used to look.

Bills: The Bills won a game they had to have, but they might have sealed their fate by losing to Cleveland last week.

RIP: Jaguars, Chargers: The Chargers, sadly, might still have a shot at their division, but I think they're done. The Jaguars are no longer a team to worry about - just playing out the string of a very disappointing season.

MY WORLD SERIES PICK

I hate to toot my own horn, but if no one else is going to do it, I'm going to have to - I called both the ALCS and NLCS exactly right. I also didn't do so poorly calling the Division Series. Of course, I've had my share of pretty poor picks on more than one occasion, which is maybe what makes these picks all the more impressive. But I do pick a bit more rationally when the Mets aren't involved...so if you want the right call on the 2008 World Series, you've certainly come to the right place.

I start with a baseball analogy for you -

Phillies:Rays::Dodgers:Phillies

You read that out as (for those of you far removed from the SAT): The Phillies are to the Rays what the Dodgers were to the Phillies. In other words, this won't be much of a contest for Tampa Bay.

I told you earlier this week I'm actually rooting for the Phillies - so this isn't the mad ranting of an angry, bitter, jealous, vengeful Mets fan. (Though I'm also not saying I'm not that.) It's just the way I see these teams matching up.

I saw the Phillies' pitchers as being better than the Dodgers' pitchers. Tampa Bay's are better than the Phillies.

The Phillies had a better lineup than the Dodgers as well...much better. Though Philadelphia has the better lineup than Tampa Bay in this series, the Rays' lineup is a notch or two above what the Dodgers were.

Add that together, and it comes out to a fairly easy series for the Rays. The Phillies probably have the edge at the end of games from the bullpen, and that's maybe why I'll give them two wins, but it's a shaky second win. I just don't think the Phillies will take many leads late into the games. (And if David Price is closing games out like he did Game 7 of the ALCS, the edge in the bullpen area might swing back to Tampa.)

I know the Phillies have a potent offense. But two things here - 1) They've been streaky this year. And they've been really hot all post-season (even in the closing days of the regular season). I sense they'll cool off a bit. And a big reason for that cooling off is 2) Pitching wins championships. It's just a fact - the good pitching will beat the good hitting. And Tampa Bay has that.

So it's Tampa Bay in six. Enjoy the final days of the baseball season.

JOHNNYMETS OFFICIALLY ENDORSES THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

It took me a while to finally decide which bandwagon to hop onto this post-season. While I still love none of the teams involved, I'm going to root for the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series.

The reason it took me so long to make that decision is I just discovered how it serves me well to root for them - so there's totally a selfish thing going on here.

The Mets clearly aren't responding to any intrinsic motivation season in and season out. So it's time to work some external motivation. What better way to get them motivated then to have to go out and face the World Series champions 18 times in 2009?

That's it. Plain and simple. If the Phillies are waving a World Series champion banner and talking it up next year, maybe it'll light a fire under the Mets.

Of course, just because I'm rooting for Philadelphia doesn't mean they'll win the World Series. They won't. I'll have my World Series pick on Tuesday.

UPDATE ON THE ALCS: OK, so I was wrong on Saturday when I thought the Rays would clinch the ALCS in Game 6. It's still hard to see the Red Sox losing a Game 7, but my original prediction was Rays in 7, so why should I stray from that? I still thought the Rays were pretty loose on Saturday night - I expect they'll be OK Sunday night.

IT ENDS TONIGHT

I haven't been following the ALCS as closely as I would have liked to. I forget if I mentioned this already, but it's probably a good thing for me the Mets didn't make the playoffs...I'd either:
1) Not be able to watch past the third inning,
2) Be way too tired to function during the day, or
3) Be dead, what with all the parenting and working and baseball watching I'd have to do.

I throw that in about the NLCS to make it very clear that I saw none of the Red Sox' dramatic comeback in Game 5. My thought process when I shut the downstairs TV and went up to fall asleep in front of the bedroom TV (while lying in bed, rather than sleeping on the couch) was that I would either wake up during the Rays' celebration (I saw until 7-0) or see what the final score was in the morning.

The Wife got up with the Baby for a feeding, and said to me, "The Red Sox tied it." I thought I was dreaming. When she whispered, "The Red Sox won," I was really confused. I had to see highlights in the morning to convince myself.

Nevertheless, I think I was probably more bothered by the extension of the ALCS to Game 6 than the Rays were. They were going home anyway, their reaction was probably, "Well, I guess we'll win it on Saturday night."

I know it's impossible to count the Red Sox out, when you look at the ALCS deficits they've overcome in recent years (heck, stretch it back to 1986 - their last World Series before '04 - even then they overcame a 3-1 deficit), but this year feels different.

I get the impression the Rays just don't get intimidated. And I think Joe Maddon has a lot to do with their mindset. They could have been crushed by Game 1. They could have been disheartened when the Red Sox kept coming back on them in Game 2. But in both cases they rebounded pretty well. They took the first two at Fenway and darn near swept the Sox in their own park.

Coming home to Tampa just means they'll win it in front of their own crowd. And close out the Red Sox. Because these Rays are a better team than the Cleveland Indians of last year....so they'll do what that team couldn't.

CUE THE VIDEO MONTAGE

Time for me to put a wrap on the 2008 Mets season. I feel a twinge of responsibility for the Mets missing the playoffs, but only a microscopic twinge, since the Mets are the ones who did this two years in a row. I have had this blog ready since the Friday before the season ended - it was meant to celebrate a playoff appearance. Now, it will kind of wrap up the season (since I put so much work into it, I don't want it to go to waste - I don't even know if it will work anymore).

But this goes in the same category as TBS and FOX and mlb.com airing ads for playoff baseball with the Mets in them all September long. I knew as soon as I saw those that the Mets were in trouble. So they take a bigger share of jinxing responsibility than I do. After all, I didn't do any jinxing a year ago, and the Mets ended up in the same spot. And to answer the question posed throughout the rest of this post, "How far we've come?" the answer when it comes to the Mets is "Not very." Which is why I'm frustrated at the re-signing of Omar Minaya. But that's another story for another day. Here's the post:

It's been about a year since Matchbox Twenty released their greatest hits album, featuring the new single (along with five other excellent new songs), "How Far We've Come". One year later, I still can't get enough of that song. And all year I've been waiting for someone to use it in a video montage, recapping someone's great year. Football season came and went...nothing. Hockey and basketball....nothing. College seasons....nothing. NASCAR used it as they were celebrating some sort of anniversary this year, but it was used on opening day at the Daytona 500, and never heard from again. And it's PERFECT for a retrospective. So I'm not going to waste any more time. I don't have the video capabilities, but I think the end of the Mets' season deserves the montage treatment. Italics are song lyrics, regular print is the video you should imagine seeing. Enjoy (and download the song while you're at it.):

(Drums start...then guitars)
Show Mets players dancing in the dugouts, running out to positions
Waking up at the start of the end of the world
But it's feeling just like every other morning before
Clips from Opening Day - including countdown of days left at Shea Stadium
Now I wonder what my life is gonna mean if it's gone
Aerials of Shea

The cars are moving like a half-a-mile-an-hour and I
Started staring at the passengers and waving goodbye
Carlos Delgado curtain call
Can you tell me what was ever really special
about me all this time
Johan Santana highlight reel

I believe the world is burning to the ground
Oh well, I guess we're gonna find out
Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come
I believe it all is coming to an end
Oh well, I guess we're gonna pretend
Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come

I think it turned ten o'clock but I don't really know
And I can't remember caring for an hour or so
Started crying and I couldn't stop myself
I started running but there's nowhere to run to
Montage of Willie Randolph, tearful 'press conference', headlines from the firing

I sat down on the street, took a look at myself
Iso shot of Jerry Manuel in the dugout, then Jose Reyes challenging him on the field on the first day
Said where you going man you know the world is headed for hell Say your goodbyes if you got someone you can say goodbye to
Bullpen Struggles Montage (this might take a while - through the chorus)

I believe the world is burning to the ground
Oh well, I guess we're gonna find out
Let's see how far we've come (Right now)
Let's see how far we've come
I believe it all is coming to an end
Oh well, I guess we're gonna pretend
Let's see how far we've come (Ah, yeah)
Let's see how far we've come

(Music - Show the Mets turning their season around - highlighted by some Carlos Delgado homers, with Gary Cohen voiceover - "Outta Here")
Home Run montage - Delgado, Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Tatis, the Apple coming out of the hat
It's gone, gone
Baby it's all gone
There's no one on the corner and there's no one at home
It was cool, cool
It was just all cool
Now it's over for me
And it's over for you.

It's gone, gone
Baby it's all gone
There's no one on the corner and there's no one at home
It was cool, cool
It was just all cool
Now it's over for me
And it's over for you....

I believe the world is burning to the ground
Oh well, I guess we're gonna find out
The rest of the song is covered with video of the Mets clinching the playoff spot and celebrating
Let's see how far we've come (Ah yeah)
Let's see how far we've come
I believe it all is coming to an end
Oh well, I guess we're gonna pretend
Let's see how far we've come (Ah yeah)
Let's see how far we've come

Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come
Let's see how far we've come

MY LCS PICKS

I nailed a couple of those LDS series. I had the Rays in 4, and the Phillies in 4 (though that series wasn't as tough as I thought it would be). I had the correct number of games in the Dodgers-Cubs series, but I don't think that's a major loss, because did anyone think the Dodgers would sweep the Cubs? And I messed up on the Red Sox...but I'm picking against them again. Here we go:

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
I can't believe the freakin' Phillies are going to the World Series. But here we are.

I just don't think the Dodgers match up well enough with Philadelphia. (Although, of course, I didn't think they matched up too well with the Cubs, either.)

Manny Ramirez will have a huge series - he'll eat up Citizens Bank Park - but overall the Phillies have better pitching, and when you get to this point of the season, that's what it's all about.

I'm cautious about Brad Lidge - yes, he had an extraordinary regular season, and he has shown zero indication that he is getting tired or will be any less automatic in the post-season....but this is still the guy who disaster befell this time of year in 2005. I just don't think that goes away.

Still, the Phillies survive. They do better than survive. Phillies in five.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
The ALCS is going to be where you get the bang for your buck. I hope I'm not building up this series too much - but I think it will be great.

Again, I don't love that I'm picking against Boston - they have shown time and time again that they know how to win in October...but I just didn't see it happening for them this year, and I'm having a hard time picturing them repeating as champions. (Not quite as hard a time as Tampa Bay winning it all...but there is no other option.)

That reasoning is lame, but there is some evidence to support my cause:

The Rays always give the Red Sox fits. Even when they were awful, they played the Red Sox tooth and nail (what does that mean?) and even when they were beaten it wasn't an easy win for Boston. They continued to play the Sox tough this year, when they were good, and won the season series, 10-8.

Home field was huge throughout the year between these two teams as well, and the Rays earned home field advantage, and that could be the difference. (I think I saw, and am too lazy to look it up and make sure I'm right, that the home team in the series won 15 of the 18 head-to-head games this year. That might be an indication of how this ALCS goes.)

The magical ride for Tampa continues. Rays in seven.

WHERE I STAND

Here's where I stand through one round of the playoffs:

First of all, I think this is going to be a fantastic ALCS. I think it will have everything you want in a playoff series - it will be intense, it will be dramatic, it will be good baseball. The Red Sox and Rays are very familiar with one another - this will be just like Yankees-Red Sox of 2003 or 2004. There will probably be a brawl, and I think it might go 7 games. But I'll make my picks tomorrow.

The NLCS does nothing for me. I made a list of matchups that intrigued me before the playoffs started - that will never appear because many of the matchups included the Mets. But the Rays-Red Sox was one of the matchups. Dodgers-Phillies was not.

As for the playoffs as a whole, I'm not too thrilled. I have no one who I feel very attached to, and no one I want to tie my cart to. I liked the Twins, I thought I might be interested in rooting for the Cubs...but now I'm left with teams that I can't really see myself pulling too strongly for.

Here are the strikes against them - it's pretty obvious, I think, in the National League - I hold grudges in sports, and the Dodgers represent 1988...a disappointing year for the Mets. I also don't much care for Manny Ramirez...which you may have picked up over the years. The Phillies are the Phillies. If they go to the World Series (very likely), I'll be pretty angry about it.

In the AL, I've written before that though I like certain players on the Rays, overall I think they're a bunch of punks. And I bet that shows through during this ALCS. But I have to root for them for this simple reason - in 1915, the Red Sox played Philadelphia in the World Series. In 1916, they played the Dodgers. And Tampa Bay has never played either team in the World Series. So I think it's pretty clear what I need to happen.

I'll have my picks tomorrow.

I HOPE THE METS ARE KICKING THEMSELVES

A pretty poor showing by the NL Central teams in the NL playoffs.

But they got in, leading to the ultimate question: Which is better - a quick first-round exit from the playoffs or not making the playoffs at all?

I still think it's better to make the playoffs - at least you get to put up a banner.

But still - the Mets have to be kicking themselves, right? They have to know that if they had just gotten in, it would have been them knocking off the Cubs in the first round instead of the Dodgers.

At least, I hope they're thinking that.

Maybe they're too busy setting themselves up for more disappointment next year by re-upping two of the people responsible for not preventing a second-consecutive slide out of the playoffs.

MY PLAYOFF PICKS

Since I'm so good at making baseball predictions, I figure I have to pick these series. Here's what I think:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston Red Sox versus Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

It's very hard to pick against the Red Sox. They continue to win, year after year, and when they get into the playoffs, they go deep into the playoffs. But I feel like this year is going to catch up to them.

The Sox have had all kinds of injuries this year, which they've survived, but things keep cropping up - like this Josh Beckett injury. And I also feel like Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to run out of luck. He's been the worst "good" pitcher this year that I've ever seen. He pitches incredibly with runners on base - but he's allowed way too many baserunners this season. I think that'll catch up with him in the post-season - you just don't get away with that at this point in the year. This isn't here nor there, but I also worry about Jonathan Papelbon. He's had a history of breaking down at the end of seasons - and he didn't really have an extended time off this year, as he's had the past couple of years. He didn't look as effective late in September, and I wonder if he'll be hittable in the post-season.

The Angels have had a very good season, and although I can see them folding, especially against the Red Sox in round one, I'm picking them to advance. Angels in five

Chicago White Sox versus Tampa Bay Rays

The White Sox are going to enter this series tired. They've had a crazy week - losing their lead in the Central by getting swept by the Twins, then rebounding, winning their must-win makeup game Monday, then the one-game playoff Tuesday. But I would have picked the Rays even without all of that going on.

The Rays have something special going on - I wouldn't be surprised if they make it to the World Series. But we'll start small - their starting pitching is better than the White Sox'. That's about all they're going to need to get through this series.

I'm going Rays in four.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles Dodgers versus Chicago Cubs

I'm starting to believe the Cubs hype - at least for them to win the National League. They have a good team, they were able to clinch early enough that they could be all lined up and rested for the playoffs, and they drew the Dodgers in round one.

With the Mets not standing in their way, I might as well root for the Cubs to break their 100-year drought. I'm not committed yet - I'll have to see how I feel watching the games - but they're certainly going to start out on the right track.

Manny Ramirez won't be able to do all of this by himself. Cubs in three.

Milwaukee Brewers versus Philadelphia Phillies

CC Sabathia can't pitch every game of this series, and that will cook the Brewers. The Phillies should have been better than they were this season - they were very inconsistent.

I think they're better than the Brewers, but now that the Brewers are in, I wonder if there's some pressure off of them. They might push the Phillies farther than the Phillies would like to be pushed in this round.

I think the Phillies survive, but it's going to be a lot rougher against Milwaukee than they expect. Phillies in a very tough four games, avoiding Sabathia in Game 5

MY FIVE STAGES

I don't get the fact that TBS is showing the Red Sox-Angels game so late on Wednesday night. The first night of playoff games is bizarre - the first game starts at 3, the second at 6:30, and the last is at ten. Seems to me they could have gone 1, 4, 7, and allowed people on the East Coast to see an East Coast game. But what I really don't get is why they aren't showing the Mets game at all on Wednesday.

WHAT?!? The Mets didn't make it to the playoffs!??! Are you *$&#&@! kidding me?! Don't even try to tell me they blew another lead late in the season. WHAT!!?! The Brewers?!! They haven't been to the playoffs since 1982!!!

Maybe we can work a deal. Maybe we can just let the Mets play one playoff game. One game with everything on the line, if they win, they get in....I'm sure we can work something out...

Ah, just screw it. What's the point anyway? They're probably just going to lose it anyway. They had their chance on Sunday, and what did they do? They lost. They had their chances in 2007, and what did they do? Lost. It's just pathetic. *sniff*

All right. There's always next year. I kind of like the way the Twins have played this year - maybe I'll root for them tonight and then into October. And then come April the Mets will be playing in a beautiful new ballpark. Springtime in Citi Field...I kind of like the sound of that....I think I'll go outside and breathe in some of this pleasant autumn weather. Maybe I'll write that nice boy David Wright a fan letter and ask him to just relax next year and not push himself too hard.

(Thanks to wikipedia for helping me out here.)

WHERE HAVE I SEEN THIS BEFORE?

I just wish I could turn it off and not care. So many people I see are casual fans...if their teams lose they don't dwell on it.

I don't kow why I am the way I am...but I take these losses too hard. Less hard than I used to - but still way too hard. Especially considering I fully didn't expect the Mets to be even close to the playoffs a few months ago.

Well, enjoy Johan Santana's one-hitter today. (Read the recap here. Just change the relevant names.) Hopefully the Mets get help from the Cubs. If it comes down to tomorrow, I'll live-blog the afternoon away on Sunday - starting with the final ceremonies before the last game at Shea at 11:30am.

EARNING HIS MONEY

Carlos Beltran is winning me over.

I know I've taken him to task before. I've said that he's making superstar money and playing like a regular star. He's put up good numbers, and since I last wrote about him, he's put up great numbers. But I never exactly felt like he was putting up $17 million-a-year numbers.

Now I think he's worth every penny.

It's hard to tell that Beltran cares. He has a very calm demeanor. It's a poker face - it seems like he never gets too up or too down. But he has proven to me that he is a quiet leader on this team...and he's leading by example by coming through in the clutch.

The past week has taken some of the shine off of David Wright's record-setting year (he has 124 RBI on the season, tied with Mike Piazza for the team record). He's been hitting, but not late in games with lots on the line. Beltran has.

And every time Beltran comes up in one of those situations, Gary Cohen mentions the fact that Beltran's prime motivation is his strikeout in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7 of the NLCS in 2006. And I love that he is so bothered by that strikeout.

The first time it came up was after Beltran's grand slam to beat the Marlins in Miami last month. Cohen told that Beltran wants to get back in the playoffs to make up for that at-bat against Adam Wainwright. Then Cohen mentioned it again in the ninth inning last night before Beltran ripped one off the first baseman's glove to beat the Cubs and keep the Mets one game behind Philadelphia and tied with Milwaukee. (Last year, by the way, the first baseman catches that ball...or Ryan Church gets tagged out at the plate in the 8th...this year is shaping up to be more promising.)

Carlos Beltran shocked a lot of people early this year by saying the Mets would win the division. He's finally starting to back that guarantee up with his play in the clutch. And if I'm the Marlins, I'd keep my mouth shut this weekend. Beltran is looking for motivation everywhere...and he's following through. He might just carry the Mets the next couple of weeks like he did with the Astros when he earned himself that huge payday.

WHETHER THE WEATHER: I haven't been this excited to watch baseball all season. I wake up and can't wait for the night's games. Unfortunately, I might have to wait 24 more hours. There's some nasty weather across the region, and it's going to wreak havoc on the weekend's schedule. The Phillies are hosting the Nationals, the Mets have the Marlins. There might be a doubleheader on Saturday instead of a night game tonight for the Mets. I can't stand the suspense.

I'm also ticked because the Mets have a 1 o'clock game on Saturday. They are totally within their rights to have a weekend game at a reasonable time like 1pm. I'm not mad at them - I'm mad at Major League Baseball. The 1pm start means it won't be on an Extra Innings package because of the FOX blackouts (only the 7pm Saturday starts get picked up by the package). The fact that I can see meaningless games on a weekday night in May but miss one of the most important games of the season on the final weekend shows there's something flawed with that system. I'll have to turn to the trusty old wireless scoreboard or the ESPN GameCast instead.

COUNTING MY CHICKENS: I hate to even mention this and run the risk of putting a jinx on the entire thing...but my dad got his post-season tickets the other day. (He's had a Tuesday & Friday ticket plan the past few years - which I took advantage of once in those two years.) But he has one Division Series game, two NLCS games, and one World Series game. One of the NLCS games falls on Columbus Day (depending on the Mets' seed)...the World Series game is a Saturday night (I think it's Game 3 - a guaranteed game...not 'if necessary', in other words). I could make it down to NYC for those games. I've never been to a World Series game - I'm getting butterflies just thinking about the possibilities...imagine if my final two trips to Shea Stadium were for a Billy Joel concert and a World Series game (and maybe add a third - the LCS game - I would not be able to make any Division Series games). If the Mets don't make it I might cry.

FINAL FOUR

Remember this? It's time to readjust the expectations, with four games remaining in the regular season.

Here's the story right now (record; standings; then games remaining):

Mets: 87-71 - 1.5 back of PHI in East, tied with MIL for WC (1 vs. CHC, 3 vs. FLA)
Phillies: 89-70 - first place in East (3 vs. WSH)
Brewers: 87-71 - tied with Mets for WC (1 vs. PIT, 3 vs. CHC)

When I called for the Mets to go 46-28 the rest of the way (they were 44-44 at the time) in July, I said 90 wins would win the division. (I'll save you the math - so far it's been 43-27 - not bad, but it might not be enough.) It looks like it will take 91...at least, in my mind, the Mets need to get to 91 wins right now to assure themselves of a playoff spot (or at the very least, a one-game playoff with the Brewers or Phillies).

Last night the Mets created a difficult situation for themselves. Instead of playing tonight with a chance to move into a tie with Philadelphia, the Mets need a win to stay a game back (instead of dropping to two back). Like last year, the Phillies close out the season against Washington, so the Mets can't rely on help - they have to win their four remaining games - and Florida won't make it easy. Milwaukee has Pittsburgh for one more tonight, but then they have to deal with the Cubs, who hopefully will play them as tough as they played the Mets.

I hate to make it sound like I'm writing an obituary with four games left, but I want to get this out there - the Mets have had a good season. It's been tremendously frustrating, and the past few days have been microcosmic of that season-long frustration (the Jason Marquis grand slam, the bullpen blowing the game to the Braves on Sunday, the 4-run lead the Mets gave back last night to lose in extra innings, leaving the bases loaded in the ninth, etc.), but overall the Mets are in a position right now that I didn't think they would be in early on.

This year doesn't qualify as a choke job. The Phillies have played very well, and the Mets have battled. Last September colors this September a little differently, but the Mets aren't good enough this year to be considered chokers. They have pretty much no bullpen, and they have themselves in a position where they still control their fate. All they have to do is win.

It starts tonight with Pedro Martinez*, in the type of big game we've been waiting four years to see him pitch in. Hopefully the 2005 version of Pedro* shows up one more time....and then a few more times in the post-season.

JOHAN: I know I called for Johan Santana to go deeper into games, and to throw more pitches. I remember it well. Both times. I keep thinking about it each time he now goes deep and deeper into games. The one thing, though, is that I didn't want him throwing career-high type numbers of pitches (125 the other night) to get through these games. Bottom line: I hope the Mets don't just have one great season from Johan Santana and then six with a damaged arm. I hope he's not pushing himself beyond his capabilities to get the Mets into the playoffs in 2008 - because if he is, that doesn't bode well for the coming years.

DO OR DIE

The MLB calendar says the playoffs don't start until next week. Except that for the Mets, for the second straight year, they've turned the final week of the season into must-win playoff scenarios.

There's a positive to this, I guess. If they make it in, they've earned it (unless Milwaukee continues to go backwards, allowing the Mets to back their way in). And they'll have played good baseball, so there's no downtime to re-adjust to meaningful games once the playoff games start. The Mets will end up going right from intense baseball to intense baseball, with no lag time in between.

The downsides, though, are more stark. The Mets - already strapped for pitchers - won't be able to set things up the way they want to...Especially considering that with Johan Santana going against Chicago tonight, he'll be pitching the season finale on Sunday with regular rest, with everything on the line. So he then wouldn't be available until the middle of the first round of the playoffs.

Another downside is the incredible pressure the Mets have put on themselves. To play this way with the Phillies breathing down your neck is understandable, I guess. It's a high-pressure situation. But to do it for the second year in a row ramps up that pressure a huge notch, and then to have to face the best team in the National League, followed by a team in the Marlins who would love nothing better to knock you out for the second year in a row....that's a little much.

Though I'm stressing these downsides, I'm not feeling sympathy for the Mets. They deserve what they get. They put themselves in this situation by playing terrible baseball for a month and a half early in the year, and not making the right moves to improve their situation in the bullpen all year long. So if they don't make the playoffs, I won't be surprised.

If they do make it though, it's a playoff spot well-earned. If they win the division, they did so because they won enough games to do it - not because Philadelphia choked (the Phillies have played too well until this point to consider anything from this point out a choke). If the Mets get the wild card spot, they'll probably have beaten the Cubs to get it, and then will have a chance against the Cubs in the first round of the playoffs.

For the Mets, the playoffs have begun. It's a six-game series from this point out. The Mets need to take five of six (five of seven before last night) to win the pre-first round.

(I thought what I was writing sounded awfully familiar.......)

Meanwhile, the Jets looked terrible last night against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. I honestly thought the Jets would take one of these two games (home against New England, at San Diego). Now that they've lost both (both games they could have won, with Cassel at QB and if their defense had stopped one play by San Diego last night), they need to go on a tear.

Arizona is looking like a tough draw this year. The Jets have them at home on Sunday - it's a short week for the Jets, but a long road trip for Arizona (they stayed on the East Coast after playing in Washington last week).

All I know is - if the Mets season comes down to Sunday, and the Mets and Jets both lay an egg like last year in the same situation - I don't know if I can handle that happening two years in a row.

SO HOW'S IT GOING?

A little more than a month ago, I laid out what the Mets would need to do to win the division. They were around .500 at the time - and from the 44-44 mark, I said the Mets would have to go 46-28 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins and win the National League East.

Since that time, the Mets are 25-13. Not bad. Another stretch like that and they'll do better than the goal I set for them. (I'm off on this being a midway posting by a game - at the mid-point, they were just ahead of what I predicted, at 24-13, on pace for 48-26, or a 92-70 season.) Can they repeat this type of stretch? The answer is yes.

The Mets have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way - they're heavy on the NL East. They play a series against Houston this weekend, one against Milwaukee the beginning of September, then a 4-game series against Chicago in the last week of the season. By then, both teams could be in a situation where they're taking it easy heading into the playoffs. (Or everything could be on the line.)

The Mets and Phillies have five games head-to-head, and the Phillies have to face the Dodgers in addition to Milwaukee and Chicago. For what it's worth, the Mets have the Cubs at home, while the Phillies have to go to Chicago - another advantage for the Mets. (The Mets go to Milwaukee, but I like that - they seem to hit really well there. Especially David Wright.)

The thing that is scary for Mets fans is that games in September against Washington and Florida (and for the sake of this conversation, I've eliminated the Marlins from contention, but they're still very much in this race) were what helped eliminate them from the playoffs a year ago. On the other hand, I like to look at it this way - the Mets have come all this way from last September, and I think now that they're at this point of the season, the bad taste from last year will get back in their mouths. If anything, last year will be positive motivation against lesser teams, rather than a psychological disadvantage.

For some reason, I'm not as worried about the bullpen situation as I probably should be. I think I'm relieved that Billy Wagner is out indefinitely, because I'd rather see him sit out than come back at less than 100%. He's not as reliable as we'd like this year at 100%, so less than that is bad news at the end of the game. Believe it or not, the Mets have a better chance with what they have going right now than with Wagner in there playing hurt. And in Tuesday night's game against Atlanta, you have to give the bullpen credit - they won the game for the Mets, keeping it at 3-2, Atlanta, until the offense blew it open in the eighth. It was encouraging.

Granted, it was Atlanta, and they don't hit very well. But guess what - that's the type of offense the Mets will be facing a lot down the stretch. 8 more games against Atlanta, 6 more against Washington. That's 14 of only 36 games left. It's crunch time - and the results so far have me thinking about a possible 11 more wins after the Mets get to 90.

PUTTING THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE

Here's a weird thing. Whenever I think ahead to the playoffs for the Mets, my mind wanders directly to the National League Championship Series, with nary a thought about the Division Series.

I say that's weird, because it's not like the Mets have had a ton of success that warrants an attitude of cockiness on my part. But they have yet to taste defeat in the first round of the post-season, so there's some rationale for my thought process.

The Mets are 3-for-3 in the Division Series, and none of those series was even very close. In 1999, it took the Mets four games to do away with the Arizona Diamondbacks, in 2000 it was four games and out for the San Francisco Giants, and in 2006 it was a 3-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. (Let me just stress - I'm not saying there weren't difficult games within those series - but none of those series was stretched to a do-or-die fifth game.)

You look at other playoff teams in the years since the extra round of the playoffs was added, and it makes the Mets' success even more impressive. Look at the Atlanta Braves, who started off well in the Division Series, but lost in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. The Dodgers are 0-for-4 in the Series, with a 1-12 record. Even perennial playoff players like the Yankees and Red Sox (and to a lesser extent, the Twins, A's, and Angels) have lost first-round playoff series.

Of course, none of the years the Mets won a division series resulted in a world championship, but that's not my point. My point is, when I think of the post-season this year, I think of which team will come out of the other Division Series bracket. Because I'm pretty sure the Mets will be in the NLCS.

That's if they're able to hold off the Phillies and make the playoffs in the first place.

SHEA MEMORIES: BIG GAMES

The fifth in an occasional (OK, you caught me, weekly) series. I'm not going to sit here and try to defend Shea Stadium as one of the best ballparks of all time. I can honestly tell you, though, that I never walked into Shea and thought, "This place is a dump." The bottom line is, Shea is where the Mets play, and for me, it will always be special. I realize these are pretty individual memories, but I hope reading them stirs up something in your mind about some place that you may take for granted.

I've been thinking a lot about the big games I've attended at Shea through the history we have shared (me and Shea, that is). I mentioned last time the playoff games I attended. I've also written about one of the most exciting games I saw there, which came in the midst of a terrible season - the game where Anthony Young broke his losing streak. But I won't write about that again.

Instead, I'll tell you the story of what might as well have been a playoff game, since it was a do-or-die situation. It had everything - last-minute drama, everything was on the line - and it may in fact have been the biggest game I ever attended at Shea Stadium.

It was October 3, 1999 - a Sunday. Last game of the regular season, against the Pirates. This was after my college graduation, a month before I was regularly employed. Actually, at the time I was flat-out unemployed. And I was in New York to attend a wedding on October 2nd. I remember specifically that I planned only to be down for the weekend, so I only packed a suit for the wedding, and my jeans and gray t-shirt for travelling back on Sunday.

Well, when things shook out on Saturday the way they did, the Mets could face a win-and-get-in the playoffs situation on Sunday. So at the wedding, a couple of friends and I decided to pull some strings we had and go to the game on Sunday. I'm fuzzy on who I was with - I'm pretty sure there was a group of 3 or 4.


We had great seats - behind the plate, about ten rows up. I was on TV throughout the game, right behind the batter from the center-field camera.

The game itself did not match the excitement level (or the intensity) it deserved, considering the situation. The Mets played the Pirates, and the game went to the 9th inning tied at 1. (Ironically, future Met Kris Benson pitched for Pittsburgh that day.) In the bottom of the ninth, the Mets got back-to-back singles with one out, and with runners on the corners, the Pirates intentionally walked John Olerud to face Mike Piazza with the bases loaded.

Of course, we couldn't believe it - that's exactly who we'd want at the plate in that situation. The place was going nuts. So what happens - the pitcher throws a wild pitch, Melvin Mora scores, and the Mets win. Pretty anticlimactic...and, it turned out, the Mets would have to play the Reds the next day in a one-game playoff to decide the wild card (Al Leiter threw a two-hitter in Cincinnati), and I forget if we knew that at the time, but it was still a wild celebration at Shea, since we knew the Mets had kept their season alive.

A personal note: This was the game where while waiting for our tickets at the Will Call window, some older woman kept making passes at me. Turned out, she was Richie Hebner's wife - he was a coach with the Pirates at the time, and spent one season with the Mets as a player in the 1970's.

More importantly, though, that gray t-shirt and jeans turned out to be very lucky. I ended up staying in New York almost the whole week - I watched the Mets beat the Reds on Monday night at my parents', and then went to a Rangers game with my dad later that week - still wearing my gray shirt and jeans. Then the gray shirt and jeans were lucky for the Mets' win over the Diamondbacks in the first round of the playoffs, and it's what I was wearing when Robin Ventura hit his walk-off grand slam/double while I was interning at Channel 7 here in Boston. (OK, not really interning, since I had already graduated and basically just hung out and logged games...That was a great day though - I was watching the Mets in extra extra innings, and the U.S.'s dramatic Ryder Cup win all at the same time.)

The lucky outfit, which began its string of good luck on that Sunday afternoon at Shea, finally ran out of luck a few weeks later. I hate to end this story on such a down note, but the moment involved Kenny Rogers and Andruw Jones.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

This isn't the first time I've been an outsider. I spent about half of my life (I'm pushing 30 now, and I was an odd duck for about the first 15 years) as more of a social observer than interactor. So maybe I'm suited to be a fan of the Mets and Jets. Occasionally, I'm invited to the party - make an appearance, have a little fun, go home early. (Jets - 1991, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006; Mets - 1988, 1999, 2000, 2006). Once in a while, I'm the hit of the party - 1986 - but that's when I was 8, and my cute kid-ness covered up the other inadequacies.

Anyway, a look at the past couple of years, playoff-wise, shows that once again, I'm on the outside looking in, while all of the people around me are having a blast:


The toughest part is living in New England, where the Boston Red Sox and New England Patriots have had tremendous success, just about from the time when I moved up here until this day. (Really - starting with the Patriots making the Super Bowl in 1996, then lots of Red Sox playoff appearances, then both teams winning multiple championships.) It's bad enough the Jets and Patriots play in the same division - but seeing all of this success right in my own backyard, while I'm always left out - it's rough. The equivalent of this is you make a friend at school, bring him/her home to your neighborhood, and the popular kid next door, who doesn't go to your school, steals your friend and they have a bunch of fun together, and all of a sudden you're a third wheel.

Then there's the other options. I could have been a Yankees fan...or a Giants fan. And then I would be happy - celebrating recent championships or championship game appearances (Giants - 3 Super Bowl appearances in my lifetime [2 wins], Jets - 0...and we all know about Yankees vs. Mets), instead of watching smarter team-pickers than I having more success than me. This group ranges from acquaintances to close friends to members of my own family. So that's just a constant reminder of bad choices...but, in the end, appropriate ones.

Of course, we all know about my second choice. The Packers are a team I've always rooted for when my real team fades. During the 1990's, it was the Packers who were making playoff appearances year after year, while the Jets were going 4-12, 3-13, 1-15, etc. But, they're a second choice - they're not my team. Plus, they weren't even tremendously successful...one championship, one other Super Bowl appearance. I guess that's the friend you kind of have fun with, but you don't see very often, and maybe they don't even consider you a friend. You're like a hanger-on.

Then there's the rivals. The Patriots we've already commented on....but for years the teams the Mets couldn't beat were the ones who stood in their way - the Atlanta Braves for many years, and the Philadelphia Phillies this past, horrid, horrible year. And that's watching the kid you hate, the bully, having fun, getting all the rewards, being Mr. Popular, even though he's a jerk.

And, finally, there's the new blood. I'm sitting here, nearly 30 years old, and the teams I root for (I'll even throw the Rangers in there) have won two championships....one if I take away the Rangers. The playoff appearances I could even count on my fingers...maybe a couple of toes. And then there's the Arizona Diamondbacks, who broke the Mets' record for success out of the gate (1998, created, 2001 championship - the Mets were 1962, 1969), and are back on a successful run again. And the Rockies - who are on the upswing and made the World Series this year. This isn't the strongest argument in the world, but it's fresh in my mind. It's like your younger brother becoming more popular with your own friends, just when you've established some friendships. Not that I'd know.

So here I am, on the outside looking in. Sure looks like a lot of fun. I'm going to go back to watching TV now.

A MATCH MADE IN (WINTER) HAVEN

I am going to try something entirely unorthodox next year, but it can't be worse than anything I've done until this point. My World Series prediction is going to be based on two random teams linked in the off-season.

Sometimes I just get the impression the baseball gods are trying to give us a hint as to what's been pre-determined. Remember this past off-season, where all the talk was of an imminent trade between the Red Sox and Rockies? Todd Helton and Mike Lowell were the major players involved. The trade never happened, obviously, although various reports had it as very, very close to taking place a number of times. Well, if I had told you then that the Red Sox and Rockies would be their respective league's representatives in this year's World Series, I'd be considered a genius, no?

This isn't the first time this sort of thing has happened - that's how I know it's worth trying out. The trick is to pick the right relationship - because if you had said in January that the Reds would be playing the Athletics in the World Series based on the Kirk Saarloos-David Shafer trade, I'd think your reasoning was full of holes. But if you had recognized this pattern in late 1985, after the Mets and Red Sox swapped some players (the key names being Bobby Ojeda and Calvin Schiraldi), you would have guessed correctly the participants in the 1986 World Series.

Sometimes you have to look very closely. Following the 2000 season, Buck Showalter was fired by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The fact was mentioned back then that the last time he was fired by a team, they won the World Series. That team was the New York Yankees. Your 2001 World Series? That's right - Yankees-Diamondbacks.

I'm not saying this is seal-tight, bet-the-house, guaranteed victory. I'm just saying it's worth a shot. So when the Mets pick up a kid in a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers in late November, you'd better believe I'm forming a relationship between those two teams in my mind...and I just might take a closer look at those two teams when my spring training World Series picks roll around.

PEACE IN THE HOUSE SPONSORED BY DIRECTV: The Wife brought up a point the other day that hadn't really crossed my mind - it's a good thing the Mets didn't make the playoffs because if they advanced to the World Series, they'd be playing the Red Sox. And then this wouldn't be a very pleasant place. And she's right.

I hadn't really thought about that, though, because my mind was on other things: Like, I'm kind of glad the Mets didn't advance to the World Series (let alone the playoffs), because if the Mets ended up in the World Series with the Red Sox, that would be another wasted year on the ol' matchups chart. At least one good thing came out of this 2007 season - another box off the grid.

GAME ONE: Two things about Game 1 of the World Series - I can't imagine a better setting for a World Series game than Fenway Park. They should just play every World Series game here, whether or not the Red Sox are involved.

The second is, if Josh Beckett pitches well again in Game 1 of the World Series, start shining up his Hall of Fame plaque. He has at least two more starts in the post-season as of this writing, and if he continues to do what he's done to this point, he is in the conversation of "Best Post-Season Pitchers of All-Time". We'll revisit this, perhaps, as the season ends and we head into the off-season.