PLAYOFF WEEK 1 REACTION

I think the biggest surprise of Week 1 of the NFL playoffs is the fact that four road teams were the favorites, and 2 of those actually won. Home field advantage in the playoffs is so important, and Arizona and San Diego were able to take advantage of that. But Baltimore clearly overwhelmed Miami in Miami, and Philadelphia beat Minnesota in Minnesota...I feel like anytime you win a playoff game on the road, it's quite an accomplishment.

The real feat, though, is if you can win on the road in Week 2.
A couple of other reactions:

SATURDAY
Atlanta at Arizona
-I totally did not see Arizona winning this game. Good for them - I didn't particularly enjoy rooting against them (I did want to see Atlanta win). But I think their run will be short-lived, coming east.
-The Cardinals do have this working in their favor - it's not like they're heading east for a 1pm game - they have the Saturday night game, so the time shouldn't be a factor, at least. Playing a really good team will probably be a bigger factor.
-My final thought on this game is that it was amazing how fast things swung Arizona's way after the fumble on the handoff at the start of the second half. Everything fell apart for the Falcons fast.

Indianapolis at San Diego
-Definitely the pick of the weekend.
The game was a lot closer than I expected - I really thought San Diego would pour it on the Colts...and they probably would have won in regulation if Peyton Manning had not caught the Chargers napping on that long touchdown to Reggie Wayne.
-I put a lot of stock into the Chargers this post-season - our post-season player pool roster has Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson (both posted 0's on Saturday) - but the game turned out the way I hoped....I think next week's matchup with Pittsburgh is going to also be the best game of the weekend.

SUNDAY
Baltimore at Miami
-I was shocked to see Ed Hochuli as referee in this game, after the start to the year he had. I guess he turned it around after the early errors. I'm also glad, after we saw Hochuli once or twice early in the game, CBS addressed why he was doing the game.
-Chad Pennington has never matched up well against a defense like Baltimore's.
-Speaking of the referees, I had never seen the guy who did the Arizona-Atlanta game before, but he was pretty good. I'm not sure what his name was.

Philadelphia at Vikings
-Maybe I was saving up for next weekend's games, where I'm going to be fully interested from 4pm Saturday through 8pm Sunday, but I really tuned out when this game came on. I watched a little, but I was more concerned with getting stuff done around the house. Again - this will not be the case next Sunday at the same time - I'll be glued to San Diego-Pittsburgh.

I'll have picks by late Friday or early Saturday.

Inspired by the Southern Bureau, I might try to get into some baseball this week. I also might touch on the Jets' coaching situation. Apparently Boston College coach Jeff Jagodzinski is putting his job on the line just to interview with the Jets. I might advise him that it's not really worth it.

NFL WEEK 17 RECAP

The 2008 NFL season is over.

Congratulations to Chad Pennington on winning the AFC East with the Miami Dolphins. I was reminded watching the game of the Jets' last division championship, which they clinched on the final day of the 2002 season, when Pennington beat the Packers (led by quarterback Brett Favre) at the Meadowlands. I thought that was kind of funny. Anyway, it couldn't happen to a better guy. Of course, Pennington handled it with class...though I wouldn't have blamed him if he had flipped off the crowd on his way off the field. I hope he wins the Super Bowl.

Before we get to the playoffs this week, though, a look at the week's final season:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 17: A couple of games came down to a final field goal - but all involved teams that had most everything wrapped up. I guess the Panthers-Saints goes as the best, because the Panthers earned themselves a bye with the win, after the Saints came back in a huge way in the game, and Carolina still managed to pull off a last-second win.

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 17: The Ravens went out and took care of business - I'll give the nod to either Joe Flacco or Le'Ron McClain - Flacco had 297 yards passing, McClain had 70 yards rushing and scored twice.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 17: The Dallas Cowboys laid an absolute egg against the Eagles with everything on the line. (The Broncos didn't play much better controlling their own destiny, nor did the Buccaneers, but the Cowboys were the worst.) The Eagles did a nice job, but the Cowboys did worse than the Eagles did well.

BEST GAME IN PLAYOFFS: Next week I think the best matchup might be Eagles-Vikings, though there's something intriguing about that Chargers-Colts game too. I think the Chargers have the potential to be the Colts of two years ago - a very average regular season, getting hot at the right time and making their championship run. This is the same team, after all, that has been a playoff threat then disappointment in recent years - maybe this is the year they turn it around. Not that I want them to...but it might happen.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN PLAYOFFS: There's not much here to predict - this prediction stuff is all over (though I will pick playoff games again starting Friday/Saturday). I will say this though - I'm in a playoff player pool, where you pick players with the hope that they get lots of points and go deep into the playoffs. My friend who I'm doing it with and I were talking about who would be a good quarterback pick, because there's really no obvious choice, the way Kurt Warner has fallen apart and with no other clear cut great quarterback out there this year. It occurred to me this weekend that Matt Ryan might be the choice - because I bet Atlanta upsets Arizona next week, and he puts up good numbers.
-Last Week: I said a 24-10 win by the Dolphins (off by 7 points there), on a 19-23, 279-yard day, 1 throwing, 1 rushing touchdown for Chad Pennington. He was 22-30 for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just another solid Pennington day...and my prediction was close enough for me.

**UPDATE** - Eric Mangini has just been fired by the Jets. I would have fired him last week, after the Seahawks loss, but that was totally reactive. After what I read about Woody Johnson (Jets owner) this morning, I suspect that this was a reactionary move. Maybe they should have taken a week to cool off. I don't love the idea of starting over with a new coach. I just hope a replacement is named quickly...and I hope the other reports recently that Brett Favre did not like playing for Mangini did not factor into this decision.

So here we are again, the Jets looking for another head coach. Same old Jets.

NFL WEEK 14 RECAP

I think this is the second time this year I've done the recap on a Wednesday - the first time with the next week starting tomorrow already. But I refuse to allow the week to go by unrecapped. So here it is:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 14: It was Dallas-Pittsburgh, and a close second was Tampa Bay-Carolina, which I called for as the best games a week ago. Add to that the huge backdoor cover by Pittsburgh - favored by 3, trailing by 10 with 7 minutes left, they not only tie the score, but avoid the push by an interception returned for a touchdown in the final two minutes. Woo!

BEST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 14: It meant very little in the standings, but reminded many of why he was valued so highly not too long ago - Matt Schaub came back from injury to lead Houston to a road win in Green Bay, throwing for 414 yards and 2 touchdowns.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 14: How about Buffalo, trying to showcase the game (somewhat) internationally in Canada, losing 16-3. They've just fallen apart. Credit Miami's defense, I guess, holding Marshawn Lynch to just 31 rushing yards (QB J.P. Losman outrushed him by 22), but the Bills have been flat-out terrible. Of course, all that goes by the boards when they face the Jets on Sunday.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 15: Look no further than the Steelers for another great week - this week it's Pittsburgh-Baltimore, with first place in the AFC North on the line. I hate that the Ravens are good.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 17: Peyton Manning gets his turn against the Detroit Lions. How about 330 yards, 3 TD.
-Last Week: I said Drew Brees would have 4 TD, with 400 passing yards in a bounceback game. Not quite. He had 230, with 2 TD.

REFLECTIONS ON WEEK 12

This is not to be confused with the recap of Week 12, which will come tomorrow. But rather, it's a quick touch-base, based on what I wrote last week, about the teams the Jets (and Jets fans) need to worry about.

Titans: Well, the Titans just aren't very good. They're good, but they're not your typical 10-0 type of team. They're kind of like the Jaguars have been the past couple of years, where you see them in the playoffs, and you wonder how they went 12-4...a solid team, but they're not going to win the Super Bowl. Not sure they'll win a playoff game. They might still get the number-one seed in the AFC, though.

Steelers: The Steelers have a tiebreaker over the Jets, so they're still the number two seed right now. And they're kind of up and down - because their quarterback is so up and down. They're the playoff-tried team that probably poses the biggest threat to the Jets the rest of the way (assuming, as I will throughout this entry, that the Jets do what they need to do).

Broncos: I'll still worry about them until I see the Jets beat them next Sunday with my own two eyes (the Jets do not have a history of success against Denver), but I'm not too scared of them. I wrote about them earlier in the year as having one of the seemingly easier schedules in the league, and they haven't done much better than .500 with that schedule. So I think that pretty much sums things up about the Broncos.

Ravens: Until proven otherwise, I'm going to maintain that the Ravens' big win was more a reflection of the disaster that the Eagles have become than an accurate portrait of Baltimore. I think the Ravens are more the team that led 10-7 at the half (good, but not great), than the team that outscored their opponent 26-0 in the second half. But that win has them sitting pretty this week.

Patriots/Dolphins: A big win for New England, beating Miami. The Patriots also helped out the Jets by handing the Dolphins their second division loss. The Patriots moved themselves a notch ahead of Miami, but that can change back next week.

Colts: I think the Colts may have finished off San Diego Sunday night, and they're certainly playing themselves back into contention the past couple of weeks. Still, they're not looking like they used to look.

Bills: The Bills won a game they had to have, but they might have sealed their fate by losing to Cleveland last week.

RIP: Jaguars, Chargers: The Chargers, sadly, might still have a shot at their division, but I think they're done. The Jaguars are no longer a team to worry about - just playing out the string of a very disappointing season.

WHAT TO DO WITH A JETS-LESS SUNDAY

Despite the fears that have been ingrained in every Jets fan as the season winds down (like the teams that are headed for the playoffs only to have the season veer into high draft pick territory...1993 comes to mind) I have one eye firmly on the playoffs this year.

And as such, with a Sunday where I could devote much more of my attention to other teams around the league, since the Jets played on Thursday, I present to you my thoughts on who Jets fans need to worry about for the remainder of the season.

Tennessee: Their win today lifted them to 10-0 - so they will be undefeated when the Jets go to Tennessee next weekend. If Tennessee wins, there's no one the rest of the way who is too tough on their schedule- they might go undefeated the rest of the way. At the very least, they will lock up the number one seed in the AFC by beating the Jets. If the Jets go in there and beat Tennessee (and then take care of business in the rest of their fairly tough schedule - which is no given), I think they have a hold on the number two seed in the AFC. (Goes without saying even if the Titans lose to the Jets, they still have a pretty strong lock on the number one seed.)

Pittsburgh: Boy are they streaky. But by beating San Diego, unimpressive as they looked on offense, I think they present the biggest challenge to the bye week for the Jets (again - last time I'll say it - we're going under the assumption here that the Jets at least win 3 of their final 4 games at San Fran and Seattle and home versus Buffalo and Miami).

Denver: The Jets also have a game against Denver, which doesn't worry me as much as it did at the beginning of the year. I have a suspicion, not having had a look at other games that week, that this will be flexed to the Sunday night 8pm spot, so it'll be in the national spotlight. But I think regardless the AFC West winner is destined for the number four seed in the AFC.

Then there's the wild card:

There are 4 teams in the wild card hunt right now at 6-4 (could be five with Buffalo playing Monday night) - New England, Indianapolis, Miami, and Baltimore. I think one of those teams isn't even in contention for much longer, and since you can't bet against New England and Indy, it's between Miami and Baltimore. I think Miami hangs around this year, and Baltimore fades. So watch those three teams (but don't sleep on the Ravens yet).

There are also the Jaguars and the Chargers at 4-6 - one of them will likely be a non-factor in the next couple of weeks, and one will give the teams at 6-4 a bit of a run. I'm not sure which one, since they've both been such underachievers. But I'm sure they'll put up a fight.

I know it sounds like I'm talking big with the Jets only having a one-game lead over everyone else in the division, and this could all change in a week. Believe me - I'm a Jets fan - I know how fragile this is. But that's the whole point here - we need to account for every possible scenario to make sure the Jets don't fall out of contention. And as noted above, there are quite a few teams to watch every Sunday whose outcomes will affect the Jets. On Sunday, the Jets only picked up a game on the Ravens as teams with winning records all kept up the pace.

And next Sunday, the Patriots play the Dolphins. If the Jets lose to Tennessee, one of those teams will be back in a tie for first place in the division.

It's enough to give me a weekly headache.

I know, I know...it's very, very, very unlikely that the Jets will win this weekend. A number of factors are working against them - Baltimore is a very tough place to win, their defense is very tough, and...I feel like there was one more thing...I forget...oh, no wait, that's right: the Jets are starting Brooks Bollinger.

But remember what I've told you - if you want a legit pick, read me, and then go somewhere else to see people pick the Ravens. I pick with my heart, not with my head, and looking at this game with my heart, I can figure out a way the Jets will win (or at the very least, cover the spread).

The backup for Bollinger this weekend will be Vinny Testaverde. I don't think Vinny's appeared on the blog before - I think the blog was born in the post-Testaverde Jets era. He says he wants Herman Edwards to stay with Bollinger the entire game, or something to that effect, so Bollinger's not worried about Testaverde breathing down his back. That's a good thing, because the entire Ravens defense will be breathing down his back - he doesn't need that extra breath. I will say this, though - Testaverde had one of the greatest games in his career against the Ravens. I believe it was in 2000 - and the Jets played the Ravens with a chance to make the playoffs (like their entire December schedule that year - Al Groh's year, when they lost to the crappy Lions, et al., and missed their chance), in Baltimore, and they lost, on Christmas Eve, 34-20. Testaverde passed for 481 yards - and that was the year the Ravens won the Super Bowl, so racking up some yards against the Ravens isn't impossible...especially this year.

However, the key to victory for the Jets this week will be in the running game. Both running games. Curtis Martin versus Jamal Lewis. Lewis has been absolutely awful this year - but the Ravens have had a week to figure things out after a bye. Martin hasn't been good, but the Jets' offensive line has been brutal - I don't know if it's Jamal Lewis, honestly, or if it's the Ravens' O-line...but these two teams have sort of mirrored each other early on. Both teams have had quarterback problems, and running problems, and offensive problems in general. Both teams are supposed to have good defenses, and both haven't played to their potential thus far.

It's going to come down to defenses, I think, on Sunday. Neither team will find the end zone, I predict. The Jets' defense will step up big time for the next couple of weeks, before they get tired from carrying the team. The Ravens defense will keep Bollinger from doing anything big, but I expect him to play smart, to throw short passes that will open up a little room for Curtis Martin to run, and I think the Jets will out-field-goal the Ravens, and win, 9-3. With the Jets 7-point underdogs, I pick them to win outright (here, anyway - in another pool I picked the Ravens to win...and I'm starting to regret that - I just convinced myself the Jets can win).

As for the rest of the NFL - last week was a bad week - the wife was 9-5 - she had a good week, and overall, she is 27-18-1. Dave from Brighton had a brutal week, at one point standing at 1-8, finishing at 4-10, and he's 10-19-1 overall. What's worse? Not only did the Jets lose both of their quarterbacks...but I went 3-11!! Yikes. I'm at 20-25-1 overall. The wife likes to point out she has almost as many wins as Dave and I combined. I need to tell her that Dave didn't play week one. Anyway, for this week, both Dave and the wife also pick the Jets - I'm not sure why. Oh, and Brooks Bollinger sent in an e-mail with his picks - but he only gets to make his pick if both the wife and Dave go down with season-ending injuries.

So, away we go:

The Patriots are five-point favorites over the Chargers at home. All three of us pick the Pats - me, because I'm not buying into the Chargers' hype this year, the other two because they like the Pats.

The Jaguars are three-and-a-half point favorites over the Broncos, in Jacksonville...I think the Jags carry the momentum from last week's overtime win in New York into this week, and bring the Broncos back to earth after their big Monday Night win. Dave and the wife agree.

The Bengals look to go 4-0 as 9-and-a-half point favorites over the Texans, in Cincinnati. I'll pick the Texans when they show up one week...so it's Cincy giving the points for me. Dave also takes Cincy, the wife takes Houston.

The Colts are giving 7 in Tennessee. It's a tough place to win, but the Colts are a well-rounded team now with a good defense, and they can beat the Titans. I take Indy -7. So does Dave. The wife takes the Titans.

The Chiefs are two-point favorites at home against the Eagles. I can't pick against Philly - they should win outright. Both Dave and the wife also take the Eagles.

In Tampa Bay, the Bucs try to go to 4-0 against the Lions. They are favored by six-and-a-half. I take Detroit getting the points. They probably won't win, but I feel like they can keep it close. I don't want Tampa to be 4-0...so maybe that's motivating my pick too. Both Dave and the wife take Tampa.

The Giants are giving three at home against the Rams. I take the Giants, because I've been impressed by them so far (last week notwithstanding). Dave takes the Giants, the wife takes the Rams.

New Orleans hosting Buffalo is a pick-'em. All three of us take Buffalo. The Saints are still the Saints (not to say Buffalo is much better...but they're a little better).

Washington is a 2-point favorite at home against Seattle. Seattle wins outright, ruining the Redskins' hopes of an undefeated season. Dave and the wife agree.

The Falcons host the Vikings, as five-and-a-half point favorites. Back down to earth for Culpepper after crushing the Saints last week - Falcons win, big. The wife and Dave agree.

The Raiders are three-point favorites over Dallas. Another trip out west for the Cowboys? They can't win...and the Raiders are dying for a win - they'll get it this time at home. Dave also takes Oakland...the wife takes Dallas.

In Mexico, it's 49ers versus Cardinals. Arizona's the home team, favored by 3. The 49ers should win this game. All three of us take San Fran.

Monday night, Carolina is at home, 7-and-a-half point favorites over the Packers. I take Green Bay to cover, but not win. I say Carolina, 27-20. Dave takes Green Bay, the wife takes Carolina.

A lot of similar picks for Dave and I. That means we can pick up lots of ground on the wife with a good week....or else hand the season over to her as she runs away with it.

Jets 13, Cardinals 3

The Jets really needed their defense to step up since Chad Pennington went down. The whole team collapsed in the game against the Baltimore Ravens...but since then, the defense has been BIG. On Sunday against Arizona, the defense came through late, stopping the Cardinals three different times in the last 6 and a half minutes, causing turnovers on three plays. Jonathan Vilma picked off a pass and recovered a fumble, and it doesn't hurt that the Cardinals stink, but the Jets won another game they had to win, and now they're 8-3.

Another highlight from Sunday's game was Quincy Carter hooking up with Santana Moss on a 69-yard touchdown pass that helped put the game out of reach. It was quite possibly one of the greatest offensive plays in Jets history, just because there hasn't been much out there to choose from. Another positive out of the Cardinals game was that when Carter got hurt early on, in stepped Brooks Bollinger, and he didn't do a bad job. I think by next season he will be a very capable backup, and it's a bonus that he got to see some NFL game action against a very non-threatening team like the Cardinals.

A couple of notes on the defense. First of all, they really have played well all year. And the past two games they've been very good against two sub-par teams. They gave up 3 points this week, and 7 points last week. Next week will be a test against Houston, and they need to respond, because things only get tougher after that.

The most upsetting thing about Sunday's game was what was happening in New England. The Ravens played horribly against the Patriots, and it made you realize that there's no way they should have scored 20 points against the Jets, let alone win that game. That loss against the Ravens still hurts.

Luckily for the Jets, though, they came out on top no matter who won the Ravens-Patriots game. A Ravens win would have put the Jets closer to catching the Patriots, but since the Patriots won, the Jets now have the upper hand in the wild card chase. (It's getting to be that time of year, where Wednesdays are going to be Wild Card Scenario days.) It would also help tonight if the Raiders beat the Broncos, but I'm not counting on that. I'm actually looking forward to the game, though, because it's snowing in Denver!

Time to get back to the homework. The Jets are 8-3, they need 10 or 11 wins to be in good postseason shape. We'll be talking about this some more in the coming weeks, but the remaining games are Houston, Pittsburgh, Seattle, New England, Saint Louis. After Seattle got crushed by Buffalo on Sunday, that game and the St. Louis game look a lot less daunting. Hopefully the Jets still have 3 or 4 wins left in them...and hopefully next week marks the return of Chad Pennington.

We'll have your e-mail tomorrow. Oh wait, before I go - I saw on the ESPN crawl that the Jets worked out a contract for Shaun Ellis, so that takes care of one of their big name free agents. That's very good news. I'll try to have more on that tomorrow.

I'm not even sure why I'm still making these picks, because I'm so horrible at it, but I must. So here they are (I went 7-7 last week, and am 66-61-3 overall...so much for putting .500 in the rear-view mirror...and by the way, these are for entertainment purposes only):

The Jets/Ravens game is a pick 'em (I go by the USA Today on-line spreads). I really think the Jets can beat the Ravens. They're not letting the injury to Chad Pennington get them down - the team has faith in Quincy Carter. The Jets' defense is good enough to shut down the Ravens' offense...I expect the Jets' D to step up big-time in the coming weeks. Jets, 17-3.

Pittsburgh is a three-and-a-half point favorite over the Browns, in Cleveland. Is this a letdown game for the Steelers, after handing the Patriots and then the Eagles their respective first losses of the year? Maybe, but the Steelers still win. I'll take Pittsburgh and the points.

Indianapolis is a 9-point favorite over the Texans, in Indy. For some reason, I think the Texans will keep this one close. I'll take Houston.

Tennessee is giving five and a half to the Bears, in Tennessee. The Titans are better than the Giants, and therefore will be able to cover against the Bears. I hope.

In Atlanta, the Falcons are giving four to the Buccaneers. The Falcons have been disappointing at times, and the Bucs have been winning games they shouldn't win lately. I'm taking Tampa plus the points.

Jacksonville is a 3-point favorite over the Lions. Leftwich is out...you know what, I thought up until right now I was going Jaguars, but I'm making an audible. Let's go Lions, plus 3.

Seattle is a 1-point favorite over the Rams. The game's in Saint Louis, but I think the Seahawks will win. Seattle should have won the first matchup between these two teams, but blew a big lead late. It's tough to imagine the Rams losing at home in back-to-back weeks, but I think it's happening. I'd go the over on this one too (50), if I did that sort of thing.

Kansas City is giving three and a half to the Saints, in New Orleans. I think the Chiefs win this game, but just by three. The Saints always find a way to get me, so I'll take them plus three and a half, counterintuitively.

In Washington, the Redskins are three and a half point faves over the Bengals. I take Cincinnati...I keep expecting them to win a game like this....this week they'll do it.

The Packers are 4-point favorites over the Vikings. This one's tough to pick, but since it's in Green Bay, and Randy Moss will not play, I'll take the Packers, -4.

The Giants (UGH - They kill me every week) are 2-point favorites in Arizona. If the Giants don't win this one, it's Eli Manning next week. Giants, minus two.

The 49ers and the Panthers are a pick 'em. I go Panthers. No reason, really...I think the Panthers are less bad.

Sunday night, the Patriots are a 7-point favorite over the Bills. The Pats will probably win, but I think the Bills can keep it close. I'll take Buffalo, plus-7.

On Monday night, the Cowboys are home 'dogs to the Eagles, by six. I think the Eagles will win, but the Cowboys will manage to keep it close. I'll take Dallas plus 6.

Finally, I've been meaning to get to this all week, but I couldn't write. This is a bonus e-mail:

"Dear Johnnyjets,

I know I'm early (it's Wednesday), but the firing/resignation of Dave
Wannstedt got me thinking. From a bettor's perspective, don't you hate
it when a team quits on a coach? There is no way to tell whether Miami
will show up for the rest of the season, and on occasions they do take
their game seriously (after the bye week, perhaps?), there will be
little or no warning.
The same thing happened with the Raiders last year, after Callahan called his team dumb.
I predict it will be nearly impossible to forecast Miami games against
the spread for the remainder of the season. Thoughts?
Dave in Brighton"

Dave, I think my response to your e-mail here is simple. How can you tell the difference between the Dolphins before Wannedstedt was fired and the Dolphins after they've quit on him? In certain instances, I think the point is valid...but in the case of the 2004 Dolphins, they're just plain ol' bad, and I expect them to continue to be bad for the remainder of the season. I'll just keep picking their opponents.

Enjoy the games!