IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS

OK, maybe a little dramatic...but if the Jets don't win Sunday, I'm pushing the panic button. I'm going to let you in on one of my dirty little secrets: I owned an Anthony Becht jersey. I know, I know, it was a stupid purchase. But I really thought he was going to be the next Mickey Schuler (I know, I know, that's not even a whole heck of a lot, but for a Jets fan, that's the comparison). But really, I thought he was going to be great. I still do think it was the wrong system at the wrong time - and if he was still around, it might have been him having a 100-yard receiving day last Sunday. Instead, he caught one pass for 7 yards in his Tampa Bay debut. But I digress. The point is, I had an Anthony Becht jersey (still do, as a matter of fact). It's my fault he didn't succeed as a Jet.

This is a curse. It's a curse I must live with. It dates back to about 1994. I read a great article in Sports Illustrated about Boomer Esiason and his son Gunnar, and I said, "I want a Boomer Esiason jersey. He will be my favorite Jet." (I was at a crossroads at this point about who my favorite Jet would be - among the candidates was Aaron Glenn.) Well, I buy the Boomer jersey - I remember it like it was yesterday - I went to Modell's on Steinway Street in Astoria, bought the jersey, wore the heck out of it, and was wearing it the night of Dan Marino's fake spike at the Meadowlands, when the Jets blew their big halftime lead, and their chance at first place, and lost every game the rest of the way to finish 6-10 and oh by the way who got burned on that fake spike - oh yes the other candidate for my jersey purchasing Aaron Glenn.

I didn't buy another jersey after Boomer for a little while. But then 1998 came. The Jets had a steal in the draft, I was convinced, when they took Boston College's Glenn Foley in the sixth round. He earned the starting job, and went 0-2, losing to San Francisco in Week One on Garrison Hearst's 96-yard touchdown run in overtime (remember that?). Anyway, after he lost in Week Two, he also hurt his ribs. Of course, we all know Vinny Testaverde took over, played for about 4 more years, and Glenn Foley took about 8 snaps with Seattle before retiring to a bar somewhere...being seen only on the free agent lists in John Madden football games (where I would sometimes sign him as a backup for old time's sake.)

So along comes the 2000 draft, and I say no to Shaun Ellis, no to John Abraham, no to Chad Pennington, I want the tight end's jersey. So I custom ordered from NFL.com an Anthony Becht #88 jersey. He's going to be a star! I convince myself. Well, it looks good for a while. When the Jets make their playoff run in 2001 he's a key part - catching touchdown passes and two-point conversions late in games versus Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Testaverde found him a reliable target. But he never matched those numbers (not even very impressive numbers, anyway) again. He even developed a big case of the dropsies. I think the one that sealed it was an October Monday Night Football game where he dropped a pass that would have given the Jets big yardage, and incurred the wrath of the home fans. Well, sorry, Anthony - little did you know it was probably my fault.

Anyway, after Becht was gone, I said I'm never going to get another Jets jersey. Why put anyone through what I put poor Glenn Foley and Anthony Becht through? Then, I had a better idea. Why not get a sure thing? What's more of a sure thing than Chad Pennington? And I had a string of bad luck with green jerseys - how about a white Chad Pennington jersey!? Foolproof. So for my birthday, good old mom got me a Pennington jersey. Well, we're 0-1. Sorry Chad.

But the jersey jinx is going to end this week. Pennington said it himself this week - "It's just one game. People are going crazy over one game." The Kansas City game was just one game. (One horrid, horrid game.) So it can all be put behind us this weekend. One more aside - I love Mike and Mike in the morning. Mike Greenberg is me on a national stage, basically. On Friday morning, during the segment of their show they call "Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks", where they pick a couple of NFL games each against the spread, Greenberg says he never picks the Jets because he doesn't want to jinx them, and he sure doesn't want to pick against them (a sentiment I share - I just can't do it. If you want an unbiased pick there are plenty of other places to look. If you want someone to convince you the Jets have a shot at winning on any week, turn to me.). But this week, after last week's debacle, he has to do it, because if they don't win this weekend, he doesn't know what he'll do. So Mike Greenberg is picking the Jets, -6. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Here's my breakdown. I can't believe the Gus Frerotte-led Dolphins beat the Broncos last weekend. I just can't believe it. There's no way they are going to be 2-0. That's first of all. Secondly, this is the Dolphins. The Jets can beat the Dolphins. And they can beat them bad. Thirdly, when all was said and done last week, the Jets had many opportunities, as poorly as they played through two and a half quarters, to get back into that game. The fumbles and dropped passes hurt so much because after Kansas City scored their quick 17 points to go up 17-0, the Jets just couldn't get the ball into the end zone. And they were tantalizingly close. So if the Jets can play that poorly and not get their doors blown off (this is subject to your opinion, but really, that game could have been a lot worse than 27-7), they really are a better team than they showed.

Here are some things that need to happen on Sunday: 1) Kevin Mawae needs to get the ball to Chad Pennington on the snaps cleanly. 2) Chad Pennington needs to field the snaps from Kevin Mawae cleanly. 3) Curtis Martin needs some running room. 4) Chad Pennington needs some time in the pocket. 5) The receivers need to catch the ball. 6) Gus Frerotte needs to hit the turf - often. 7) The Jets need to win.

I think most of the above will happen - especially number 7. Remember, the last time the Jets faced the Dolphins, both Martin and LaMont Jordan ran for more than 100 yards the same night. That might not happen again, but the margin of victory could be similar. I say the Jets cover the six-point spread, and beat the Dolphins, 31-10. (The wife picks the Jets as well.)

No picks from Dave yet, but I'm sure he's keeping track. He'll be back by kickoff on Sunday. What follows are my picks, followed by the wife's in parentheses. I am out of the eliminator pool, thanks to the Vikings. I am not going to continue with that, because I now hate eliminator pools.

Baltimore is 3-and-a-half favorites in Tennessee. Come on. The Titans are bad, but the Ravens can't possibly beat them without their starting quarterback....could they? I hope not. TEN +3.5 (same for the wife).

I think the Steelers are better than the Texans, and can beat the Texans by a touchdown, even if the game is in Houston. I take Pit -6 (the wife doesn't like that Roethlisberger is questionable, she takes HOU +6).

The Colts are nine-point favorites over the Jaguars in Indy. I like Jacksonville to keep it close, though the Colts will most likely win. JAX +9 (wife takes IND -9)

Detroit is a one-point favorite in Chicago. I didn't think the Lions could beat the Packers last week - I was wrong. They have to be able to beat the Bears. DET -1 (wife - CHI +1)

Minnesota is looking to bounce back from my elimination in the elimination pool as three-point underdogs in Cincinnati. Despite my anger, I take MIN +3 (same for the wife).

No line on Philly-San Fran because of McNabb's status. The Eagles should be able to beat the 49ers with me at quarterback - and I can't throw a spiral. PHI. (same for the wife)

Tampa Bay is 2-and-a-half point favorites over Buffalo in Tampa. Not sure why. Buffalo played real well last week. I take the Bills + 2.5 as underdogs, despite Anthony Becht's imposing presence. (the wife takes TB - 2.5)

The Patriots are -3 in Carolina. I think the Pats win by 3. This is a push. But because I don't want to pick the Pats, I'll take CAR, +3. (the wife, of course, takes NE - 3)

In Seattle, the Falcons and Seahawks are pick 'em. I don't know why, but I'm picking Atlanta. Probably because I'll be rooting for them - I like Vick. (wife also takes the Falcons)

In Arizona it's a pick 'em between the Cardinals and Rams. I don't know why, after last week's awful loss to the 49ers, but I wrote down the Rams. Why did I do that? Who knows. (wife also takes the Rams)

In Green Bay, the Browns are six-and-a-half point underdogs. Green Bay might win, but 6.5 seems like a lot. I feel like it's a field goal squeaker. (wife takes the Browns too)

In Denver, the Broncos are giving three to San Diego. I don't buy the Chargers. I have said that many times. I feel like last year was a fluke. Antonio Gates is back, but I don't think that makes a difference. DEN -3. (wife also takes Denver)

The Sunday night game is Kansas City at Oakland, with the Chiefs giving one. I take the Chiefs, because of what they did to the Jets last week. KC -1. (The wife also takes KC)

Monday night there are two games - the original is the Cowboys hosting Washington, with the 'Boys giving six. I take Dallas - I think they're going to have a good year. (wife takes Dallas too)

The other Monday nighter is the Saints, playing a home game at the Giants. The Giants are 3-point home/road favorites. I take the Giants -3, even though they always screw me. (the wife takes NO).

Remember, these picks are for entertainment purposes only. Last week, I was 7-9. The wife was 10-6. Next week Dave from Brighton will be on board.

This weekend also marks the first time I get to watch the NFL on the Sunday Ticket in the privacy of my own home. Think of me on Sunday as the happiest person on earth...until the Jets game. When I'll be the most nervous person on earth. And probably hoarse.