WHO DO YOU LIKE?

I'm in a no-win situation in the AFC Championship. While it works out better for me to have the Chargers win (Super Bowl matchups-wise, since the only Super Bowl they've been in was against the 49ers, so we'd get a new one no matter who won the NFC), I don't think I like the Chargers at all.

First of all, it seems like every time the cameras cut away to the Chargers' bench, it looks like Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson are fighting. I don't really care if those guys don't like each other (and maybe they do, I just don't know), but at least pretend like you do in public.

Then there's Rivers specifically. Doesn't he just look like a punk? I don't know if it was just looking at him mouthing off to the fans in Indianapolis, and maybe they were giving him a hard time and making his life miserable, but he looked like a punk.

And I still hold a grudge against the Chargers for the way they nearly made my heart stop when the Jets faced them in the playoffs a few years back. Remember, the Eric Barton roughing the passer, and the Nate Kaeding missed field goal? (I still hold a special place in my heart for Kaeding...but the man can't go much longer with a job in the NFL performing the way he has been in the playoffs.) It may not be right, but it's the way I feel.

I hinted at the fact a week or so ago that I find this Patriots team particularly hard to root for. I mentioned that at least their first few teams had players you could single out and recognize as good character guys. Now, there's Junior (Me) Seau, and Randy (Me) Moss, and especially Rodney (Me) Harrison. Harrison is the main culprit, but the Patriots keep taking cheap shots - they're almost becoming a dirty team. It's hard to watch them do well when those things are happening. (And I don't know that there's another place for this, so I'll throw it in parenthetically - I know the Jaguars played him hard, but Randy Moss had a nothing game last week. He's had nothing post-seasons for good teams before - see the 1998 Vikings and the 2000 Vikings. Is it possible he could have another great regular season with a disappointing playoff finish this year?)

So I don't want to root for the Patriots, but I don't want to root for the Chargers either. The Chargers are also sore losers, reacting the way they did after the Patriots beat them in San Diego last year. Ultimately, though, that one big chip on their shoulder (losing to New England at home in the post-season last year), which has probably been motivating them all year, is probably the one thing they have going for them entering this year's playoffs. Good for them...but I don't think it's enough.

And I don't think I'm happy about it...because I think the Chargers are the lesser of two evils.

Because this is so late, I offer my apologies to those of you who actually look for my picks for anything other than entertainment purposes (and my apologies for not picking well thus far this season). Friday night was busy, and Saturday the website was down...but I'm still posting these picks with three hours to go until kickoffs....so we're OK.

I want to start with this e-mail from the Southern Bureau (also mentioned by Dave in Brighton...and heard on ESPNRadio):

"Johnny...

Found this stat online....

'Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson has as many touchdown passes (three) as all Jets quarterbacks combined. Three attempts, three TDs for L.T. New York's healthy but ineffective combo of Vinny Testaverde and Brooks Bollinger hasn't found the end zone in 111 attempts.'

Thoughts?? Do the Jets go QB in the offseason?? Do you sit up and night and wonder what Philip Rivers would look like in green?? Matt Shaub perhaps?? Do the Jets - like the Giants - try and make the big splash and trade up to #1 in the draft (for Leinart, I would assume)?? Or...are the problems bigger than just QB position??

And the big question - how much longer does their coach get a free ride?? He's just barely over 500 in his coaching record. And...he hasn't won anything.

kevin"

Lots to address in there. Let me start off by saying it's good to hear from Kevin again...I know football season isn't the best time of year for you, but I'm glad you're weighing in. As for the Tomlinson stat, it's pretty embarrassing. At least, I hope Testaverde is embarrassed by it. And here's some big news - I think Testaverde gets a couple of touchdown tosses today and the Jets beat the Chargers. Really, I do. The Jets, for some reason, have had the Chargers' number the past few seasons. In 2002, the game at San Diego was the one that propelled the Jets towards .500 when things looked very bleak, and the Jets went on to win the division. Last year, the Jets beat the Chargers in San Diego during the regular season, and then beat them again in that heart-stopping playoff game. Now it's the Chargers who are coming east, and I think the Jets beat them. It'll be mostly due to the defense, but I think Vinny does enough to help the offense get on the board a few times. This is also one of those stars aligning things, for me, because I've been saying how much I don't believe in the Chargers this year, and people are loving them because they've been losing such close games, but maybe this loss to the Jets will make people realize that the Chargers are going nowhere this year.

So there's my pick. To address the other issues in the e-mail - the win today by the Jets will have a negative impact on their chase for the first overall pick in the draft. But they'll still finish the season with a very high draft pick. I would love to see Vince Young as the Jets' quarterback next year, but I don't even think he'll come out this year. I do think quarterback is the biggest thing the Jets need to take care of...I don't think they can count on Chad Pennington being healthy (if it happens, great - but he's really seriously injured). Lots of people are saying Matt Leinart, and that's a real possibility - and it would give the Jets a bona fide QB (until he gets hurt, because the Jets can't get anything easy). Others are saying Brady Quinn...and that would be a typical Jets' move - because he probably won't be a good pro quarterback - he's perfect for Weis' system, and he will probably be a middling NFL QB. I want Leinart or Young...and I think the Jets would need to go quarterback over a guy like Mike Bush....but even an athlete like Bush wouldn't be the worst thing. I doubt they'll make a move for Rivers...if I get a chance this week, maybe I'll take a look at which quarterbacks are likely to be brought in by the Jets.

Lastly, the Herman Edwards situation. You're right. He's only 37-34 in his five years, with a 2-3 postseason record. But here's my argument in his defense (because I think he's a great coach). He went 10-6 in 2001, leading the Jets to the playoffs, losing in the first round. In 2002, the Jets started awfully, he made the QB switch, the team finished 9-7 and won the division. 1-1 in the playoffs. In 2003, injuries hit, 6-10, tough luck. In 2004, 10-6, wild card, 1-1 in the postseason. Now, 2-5, more injuries. He's only played with a full deck in three of his five seasons, and in those three seasons, he's done better than almost every other coach the Jets have had in their history. It's not often that the Jets are playoff contenders, and he has turned around this organization into a team that expects to be there every year. Now there's a big test, and if he doesn't get the chance to take the test, it would be unfair. The Jets are going to have to start from scratch somewhat. He had the pieces in place, for the most part, through his first four seasons (adding or taking away players here and there). Now he needs to build himself a team. If it doesn't happen quickly, fire him. I'll be fine with that. But he should at least get the chance to bring in his type of player, build his type of a team (as much as he's allowed, since he doesn't make all personnel decisions), and do what he does best, motivate, and get his guys to play, and see where the Jets are in a few years. I think he deserves that shot.

So, the picks. The Jets are five-point underdogs. I take them to win outright, Dave in Brighton takes the Chargers -5, and the wife takes the Jets +5.

Last week all three of us were 5-9. The wife is still the overall leader at 56-57-3, I'm next at 55-58-3, and then it's Dave at 43-54-3. A lot of road favorites this week - I'm not crazy about there being that many home 'dogs. This will probably be a crazy week.

In Minnesota, it's the Lions as 1-and-a-half-point favorites over the Vikings. The Vikings are going nowhere fast, and now Brad Johnson is the quarterback, with Daunte Culpepper out for a while. I take Detroit giving the points, despite Joey Harrington starting again in place of Jeff Garcia. (Dave and the wife also both take Detroit.)

Cleveland is a 3-point favorite over Tennessee in Cleveland. What a joke the Browns are - they're insulted last week because they were 2-point underdogs against the winless Texans. Well, guys, when you're that insulted you have to prove why, and go out and beat the winless Texans. Not become their first win of the season. Tennessee isn't bad enough to be an underdog here. I take the Titans, +3. (Dave and the wife both take CLE -3.)

In Kansas City, the Chiefs are four-and-a-half point favorites over the Raiders. The Raiders have started to play like I've been expecting them to all year, but that's been at home. I don't think they go into Kansas City and win. I've been wrong before (and quite often), but I'm taking the Chiefs minus the points here. (Dave and the wife also both take K.C.)

New Orleans is home to Chicago, and they are 2-point underdogs. Besides the Jets, the first of the home 'dogs. I don't know why I keep picking the Saints, since they're awful. But something about the Bears coming off a big win last week, then going on the road....I take New Orleans, +2. (Dave and the wife also take New Orleans.)

Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite in Baltimore. (Another home 'dog.) Baltimore stinks, though. I don't know how they played the Steelers so tight last Monday night. I take Cincy, -3. (Dave and the wife also take Cincinnati.)

Tampa Bay, at home, is a 1-point favorite over Carolina. Carolina is a lot better than Tampa Bay, no matter where this game is. And Tampa is without their quarterback. And they've lost to the Jets and the 49ers. That has to hurt. I take Carolina, +1. (Dave and the wife also both take Carolina.)

At Jacksonville, the Jaguars are 11-point favorites over the Texans. The Texans are coming off that first win, and I just found out they're probably going to be without starting RB Domanick Davis. It still doesn't change my pick. I'm not sure I've ever seen the Jaguars win a game by more than ten points. They just don't blow teams out. The Jaguars will win, but I take the Texans +11. (Dave and the wife also both take Houston.)

Atlanta is a two-and-a-half point favorite in Miami. (Another home 'dog.) Atlanta should have no problems in this one (meaning they will probably lose). I take the Falcons giving the points. (Dave and the wife also both take Atlanta.)

In San Francisco, the Giants are 10-point favorites over the 49ers. The Giants are legit. I might expect a Giants-Colts Super Bowl. They should blow the doors off San Francisco, even out west. I take the Giants...it doesn't even merit mentioning that the 49ers are a home 'dog. (Dave takes the Giants, the wife couldn't resist the big points, taking San Francisco.)

In Arizona, the Seahawks are four-and-a-half-point favorites over the Cardinals. Kurt Warner, I believe, is back at QB for the Cards. The Seahawks are bad on the road, but they're still road favorites here. I take Seattle, giving the points. (Dave and the wife also take Seattle.)

Big time home 'dog warning here - at Green Bay, the Steelers are 6-point favorites over the Packers. We took this line before it was announced that Roethlisberger wouldn't play (it's down to 3 now). But the Packers have been keeping games close, despite stinking it up. I think they have a shot at winning this one, so I take Green Bay. (Dave and the wife also take Green Bay.)

Sunday night, Philadelphia is a 1-point favorite over the Redskins. I took Philadelphia, and now Terrell Owens is suspended. I would change my pick, but I feel it's almost dishonest to do so without telling the wife or Dave, so I'll keep my pick at Philly. This is another home 'dog situation, by the way. (In the pool that I actually have a financial interest in, I switched my Eagles pick to the Redskins, so don't cry for me.) I take Philly. (Dave and the wife take Washington +1.)

Finally, Monday night, New England is the biggest home 'dog of them all. The Colts are 3-point favorites in Foxboro. I think this is where Peyton Manning finally gets his win at the Patriots. I take the Colts -3. (Dave in Brighton takes the Pats - "NE a home dog? Wow", he says. The wife also takes New England.)

Another week with a lot of similar picks. Should be a crazy week. Enjoy.

Not much time for a preview of Sunday's game, but I'll do a quick one, then jump right into my picks for the week. I was 10-6 against the spread last week...and remember, this is all for entertainment purposes only. Seriously. If it wasn't, I would have made some money last week...but one of these weeks, I would definitely lose my make-believe money. So that's why it's all make-believe. Anyway, onto the previews:

The Jets play at San Diego against the Chargers, who surprised me by beating the Houston Texans last week. I don't think the Chargers are very good, and Drew Brees played really well last week. He shouldn't play that well again. I think the Jets have handled LaDainian Tomlinson well in the games they've played him..actually, come to think of it, he may have been hurt the last time the Jets played San Diego, so they may never have faced Tomlinson. Regardless, I think the Jets can handle the Chargers. I'm going to say 24-14, covering the 3-point spread.

The rest of the NFL: I'm going to take Jacksonville getting 3 and a half at home against Denver. Denver looked really good last week, but I like the Jaguars to lose by three or less at home, because that's what home-field advantage is all about.

Baltimore let down a lot of people last week, losing to Cleveland. They didn't let me down - I've been saying they're not as good as people have been saying they'll be. But they're better than Pittsburgh, and they'll cover 3 and a half points at home.

Houston let me down last week...but I think they'll bounce back this week at Detroit, getting 3.

Indianapolis is getting a point in Tennessee...they'll win outright. Indy's the pick.

Green Bay is my lock of the week to win at home against the Bears. 8 and a half is a lot of points, but I'll take them to cover as well. Packers -81/2.

The Giants are not good. Until they show me they can win, I'll keep picking against them. Washington will ruin the home opener. Redskins, -3.

New Orleans is a seven and a half point favorite over the 49ers this weekend. I don't get the Saints, but I don't think San Francisco is very good. So I'll take the Saints.

Atlanta's a 2-point favorite over Saint Louis. I'm not sure why. I'll take the Rams plus 2.

Kansas City's giving six and a half to the Panthers. The Panthers have a bunch of injuries already - their running back and their best receiver. Gotta be the Chiefs.

Seattle's giving two and a half at Tampa Bay. Seattle tends to struggle on the road, but Tampa is not good. I'll take the Seahawks.

Dallas is a five-point favorite over the Browns. The Browns were impressive last week, and the Cowboys were not. I expect a role reversal...go with Dallas.

The Patriots go to Arizona, and are 8-point favorites. I just feel like the Cardinals will keep it close. I'll take Arizona.

Oakland's giving three and a half to Buffalo out west. The Raiders will kill the Bills.

And the Bengals, after looking impressive against the Jets last week, host Miami Sunday night. They're giving five points. I'll take Cincy.

Monday night, it's the Eagles and Vikings. I'll take Philly giving three and a half...but it'll be close.

I should be able to post a recap of the Jets-Chargers game Sunday night. Thanks for reading.