PLAYOFF PICKS - WEEK 1

Every so often I strike gold making these picks (remember when I absolutely nailed Dallas-Seattle?), and that's what keeps me making them. This year, I'm not in any kind of spread or over/under pool, so I'm doing this for the love of the game. (I am in a playoff player pool - possibly more information to come on that, especially if we end up doing well.)

ATLANTA AT ARIZONA (ATL -2, O/U: 51)
Good-bye Cardinals, hope you've enjoyed your division championship. This has the potential to be an entertaining game, actually - but Atlanta is the better team. They've been consistent all year, and they'll come into this game loose, I bet. The Cardinals will be tight, trying to prove they belong. And they won't do well:
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO (IND -1, O/U: 51)
The more I think about this game, the more sense it makes to me - San Diego is going to win. And they'll go on a run - I think to the Super Bowl. As I mentioned in my Week 17 recap, this is the team that has come so close so often the past few years. Then this year, they looked like they would be eliminated three weeks ago, and everything kept going their way. Call them this year's version of the 2006 Steelers, last year's Giants, whatever. They have this going for them - they have a home game in the first round, which neither of those teams did. I feel pretty good about a San Diego win against an Indianapolis team that isn't as good as its record:
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI (BAL -3, O/U: 37.5)
I love Miami (this year). I love Chad Pennington. But I don't have a good feeling about this game. I don't like the way Pennington matches up against the Ravens defense. I think that's the biggest factor - Pennington will see pressure the likes of which he hasn't seen all season, and the Dolphins won't get anything going on offense. I'll be rooting like heck to be wrong here, and rooting for the Dolphins to win, but I'm picking Baltimore:
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA (PHI -3, O/U: 41.5)
Perhaps it's because I never bought into Minnesota from the beginning of the year, and I don't think they really belong in the playoffs (though they've earned their spot more than some of the other teams in the playoffs), but I don't see them beating Philadelphia. I'm not sure exactly how this is going to shake out, but I see Philly winning on a late David Akers field goal. Maybe overtime, maybe just in the final minutes:
If I'm reading the point spreads I found correctly, which I'm 99% sure I am, how about the fact that all four home teams are underdogs? So, for entertainment purposes, if you're scoring at home, it's:
1) Atlanta and the under
2) San Diego and the over (I guess - don't these usually have half-point increments?)
3) Baltimore and the under
4) Philly (push) and the under