THE PICK

The Patriots are reeling. Sure, they're 1-0, and the season is barely two weeks old, but they're finally starting to feel the effects of all of their departures. At least, if you believe the hype. Which I'm not sure I do. They've recovered from all the other adversity they've faced in the past few seasons, why should the departure of Deion Branch hurt so much?

I have one reason, and it's what I'm going to hang my hat on this week when the Jets host the Patriots at 4 o'clock on Sunday. Never before has Tom Brady lost someone so close to him. He was pals with Lawyer Milloy, and Ty Law, and Willie McGinest, and Adam Vinatieri, and most of the other guys who left the team before. Damien Woody helped protect him. David Givens was a decent receiver with the Pats, and an important part of their post-season success. But no one was as close to Brady during games, on offense, than Deion Branch. Brady and Branch had an uncanny chemistry - one they claimed allowed them to communicate and change a pattern without even speaking to each other, with barely even a glance. Branch isn't the most special receiver in the league (though he is one of the speediest, and I think he will make an impact with Seattle), but he was the most special receiver to Tom Brady, and that's going to have a long-term effect on the Patriots.

Will it have a short-term effect, though? I like to think it will, at least this week. The Jets defense played pretty well against Tennesse last week, and on paper, the Titans have more impressive receivers than the Patriots do (though no one to get them the ball). The first touchdown the Jets gave up last week could be pinned on the defense, but the second came after a Jets fumble inside their own five, so you can't fault the defense. So I think the Jets' D will hold their own against the Patriots' offense, especially since Eric Mangini has an idea about Tom Brady's tendencies. (The Jets' defense did come up with 3 interceptions last week - and maybe Tom Brady tries to force a few into the wrong places this week.)

The Jets' offense is a question mark. Early in his career, Chad Pennington played VERY well against the Patriots. Then he hit a wall, and has had some of the worst games of his career against New England (including a 5-interception performance around Christmastime a few years ago in the most embarrassing game for the Jets organization ever - a prime time game featuring a certain sideline interview of Joe Namath by Suzy Kolber). I wonder if Bill Belichick is the genius who figured out how to play Pennington, or if it was Mangini. And if it was Belichick, does Mangini know what to tell Pennington to prevent the scheme from working?

I think Mangini is a key to this game. And with everything going on with the Patriots, and with the home crowd going nuts for the Jets' home opener, I think the Jets can pull this one out. I'm going to go with a 17-13 win for the Jets, in a real nail-biter, and the totally unexpected will happen this weekend - the Jets will be alone in first place in the AFC East - a situation that could affect the way the rest of this season unfolds. Dare people start believing in the Jets?

I'm 1-0 with the Jets, picking a 17-10 win last week, which ended up being a 23-16 win. I'm off by 6 points. Overall, here's the way the Yahoo! league is shaping up:

1. The Wife (in first, of course): 10-6
2. Cousin Eddie: 9-7
3. Johnnyjets, Southern Bureau: 6-10
5. Justin in NYC: 5-11
6. Dave in Brighton: 2-14

Dave says he's hoping to double his win total each week, so he's looking for a big 4 this weekend.