NL EAST GLANCE

Philadelphia - 24-18
Florida - 25-19
Mets - 22-22, 3 GB
Atlanta - 21-22, 3.5 GB
Montreal - 14-30, 11 GB

Let's start with the Phillies, the first two games of this all-important 12-game stretch. Philadelphia is hot. I know I criticized them early on, but they've improved their play. Like the Mets, the Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10. But take it a bit further back, and they've won 12 out of 16. Before that they were playing about .500 ball. They've made a very nice recovery after the 1-6 start. The Phillies also haven't missed a beat since losing their closer, Billy Wagner, to injury at the beginning of this recent stretch - his replacement, Tim Worrell, has blown just one save during that time (he's closed out five games). The good news here is Worrell's more beatable than Wagner, in case the Mets find themselves trailing the Phillies late in an upcoming game.

The Marlins have been the opposite of the Phillies lately. They're still playing very good ball, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. But they've definitely evened out since their hot start, and their pitching has shown it can be beaten. In May, the Marlins are just 10-11. The next 13 games for the Marlins are against the Reds and the Mets. The Reds have been better this year, and while I don't think they'll contend all year, they're playing Florida at a time when they can be beaten. One other note on the Marlins. Everyone's expecting the team to improve exponentially when A.J. Burnett comes back from Tommy John surgery sometime next month. I agree that most of these pitchers come back from this surgery stronger, and that Burnett was a very good pitcher to begin with. But he was also a streaky pitcher. Jack McKeon has said since last year the Marlins won't need to make a trading deadline move to improve their team because they'll be getting Burnett back. This is different though. When you make a trading deadline move you're getting a pitcher who's been pitching in the majors. Burnett hasn't pitched against major league batters in at least a year and a half. I think he'll be great next year, but I anticipate a bit of a rough go for Burnett the rest of this year.

The Braves can't be counted out yet. They're not as strong as they've been in the past, but they're still only a half-game behind the Mets. Most of the players on this team know how to win, and while I don't think they'll be a threat, they always, somehow, come back to bite me. So for now, we'll keep an eye on them. They've also been hit by the injury bug - Chipper Jones has just gotten back to action after a hamstring injury, and they are now without Marcus Giles. (They've been without Rafael Furcal almost the entire season.) The pitching is starting to come around, too - Mike Hampton has been pitching much better his last couple of outings.

Montreal - they won't be a threat at all the rest of this season. The Mets better cream them the next time they play. This team is beaten down from all their travel, not to mention, they're just not very good.