Saturday, October 01, 2005

I know, I know...it's very, very, very unlikely that the Jets will win this weekend. A number of factors are working against them - Baltimore is a very tough place to win, their defense is very tough, and...I feel like there was one more thing...I forget...oh, no wait, that's right: the Jets are starting Brooks Bollinger.

But remember what I've told you - if you want a legit pick, read me, and then go somewhere else to see people pick the Ravens. I pick with my heart, not with my head, and looking at this game with my heart, I can figure out a way the Jets will win (or at the very least, cover the spread).

The backup for Bollinger this weekend will be Vinny Testaverde. I don't think Vinny's appeared on the blog before - I think the blog was born in the post-Testaverde Jets era. He says he wants Herman Edwards to stay with Bollinger the entire game, or something to that effect, so Bollinger's not worried about Testaverde breathing down his back. That's a good thing, because the entire Ravens defense will be breathing down his back - he doesn't need that extra breath. I will say this, though - Testaverde had one of the greatest games in his career against the Ravens. I believe it was in 2000 - and the Jets played the Ravens with a chance to make the playoffs (like their entire December schedule that year - Al Groh's year, when they lost to the crappy Lions, et al., and missed their chance), in Baltimore, and they lost, on Christmas Eve, 34-20. Testaverde passed for 481 yards - and that was the year the Ravens won the Super Bowl, so racking up some yards against the Ravens isn't impossible...especially this year.

However, the key to victory for the Jets this week will be in the running game. Both running games. Curtis Martin versus Jamal Lewis. Lewis has been absolutely awful this year - but the Ravens have had a week to figure things out after a bye. Martin hasn't been good, but the Jets' offensive line has been brutal - I don't know if it's Jamal Lewis, honestly, or if it's the Ravens' O-line...but these two teams have sort of mirrored each other early on. Both teams have had quarterback problems, and running problems, and offensive problems in general. Both teams are supposed to have good defenses, and both haven't played to their potential thus far.

It's going to come down to defenses, I think, on Sunday. Neither team will find the end zone, I predict. The Jets' defense will step up big time for the next couple of weeks, before they get tired from carrying the team. The Ravens defense will keep Bollinger from doing anything big, but I expect him to play smart, to throw short passes that will open up a little room for Curtis Martin to run, and I think the Jets will out-field-goal the Ravens, and win, 9-3. With the Jets 7-point underdogs, I pick them to win outright (here, anyway - in another pool I picked the Ravens to win...and I'm starting to regret that - I just convinced myself the Jets can win).

As for the rest of the NFL - last week was a bad week - the wife was 9-5 - she had a good week, and overall, she is 27-18-1. Dave from Brighton had a brutal week, at one point standing at 1-8, finishing at 4-10, and he's 10-19-1 overall. What's worse? Not only did the Jets lose both of their quarterbacks...but I went 3-11!! Yikes. I'm at 20-25-1 overall. The wife likes to point out she has almost as many wins as Dave and I combined. I need to tell her that Dave didn't play week one. Anyway, for this week, both Dave and the wife also pick the Jets - I'm not sure why. Oh, and Brooks Bollinger sent in an e-mail with his picks - but he only gets to make his pick if both the wife and Dave go down with season-ending injuries.

So, away we go:

The Patriots are five-point favorites over the Chargers at home. All three of us pick the Pats - me, because I'm not buying into the Chargers' hype this year, the other two because they like the Pats.

The Jaguars are three-and-a-half point favorites over the Broncos, in Jacksonville...I think the Jags carry the momentum from last week's overtime win in New York into this week, and bring the Broncos back to earth after their big Monday Night win. Dave and the wife agree.

The Bengals look to go 4-0 as 9-and-a-half point favorites over the Texans, in Cincinnati. I'll pick the Texans when they show up one week...so it's Cincy giving the points for me. Dave also takes Cincy, the wife takes Houston.

The Colts are giving 7 in Tennessee. It's a tough place to win, but the Colts are a well-rounded team now with a good defense, and they can beat the Titans. I take Indy -7. So does Dave. The wife takes the Titans.

The Chiefs are two-point favorites at home against the Eagles. I can't pick against Philly - they should win outright. Both Dave and the wife also take the Eagles.

In Tampa Bay, the Bucs try to go to 4-0 against the Lions. They are favored by six-and-a-half. I take Detroit getting the points. They probably won't win, but I feel like they can keep it close. I don't want Tampa to be 4-0...so maybe that's motivating my pick too. Both Dave and the wife take Tampa.

The Giants are giving three at home against the Rams. I take the Giants, because I've been impressed by them so far (last week notwithstanding). Dave takes the Giants, the wife takes the Rams.

New Orleans hosting Buffalo is a pick-'em. All three of us take Buffalo. The Saints are still the Saints (not to say Buffalo is much better...but they're a little better).

Washington is a 2-point favorite at home against Seattle. Seattle wins outright, ruining the Redskins' hopes of an undefeated season. Dave and the wife agree.

The Falcons host the Vikings, as five-and-a-half point favorites. Back down to earth for Culpepper after crushing the Saints last week - Falcons win, big. The wife and Dave agree.

The Raiders are three-point favorites over Dallas. Another trip out west for the Cowboys? They can't win...and the Raiders are dying for a win - they'll get it this time at home. Dave also takes Oakland...the wife takes Dallas.

In Mexico, it's 49ers versus Cardinals. Arizona's the home team, favored by 3. The 49ers should win this game. All three of us take San Fran.

Monday night, Carolina is at home, 7-and-a-half point favorites over the Packers. I take Green Bay to cover, but not win. I say Carolina, 27-20. Dave takes Green Bay, the wife takes Carolina.

A lot of similar picks for Dave and I. That means we can pick up lots of ground on the wife with a good week....or else hand the season over to her as she runs away with it.

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