Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Considering it's the quietest day in sports, I sure have a lot to get to. First, as promised, the statistical piece I've been working on:

CLIFF FLOYD'S 2005 SEASON

In the Mets’ 43-year history, their best hitters have either been right-handed or switch-hitting batters. It’s rare that a left-handed batter wearing a Mets uniform has put up solid numbers over a full season.

But what we are witnessing so far this season from Cliff Floyd could be the best offensive season ever for a Mets left-handed hitter, if not any Mets hitter. What follows is a list of the top seasons I could find for what I believe to be the best left-handed hitters to ever wear a Mets uniform (the fact that Mo Vaughn makes this list shows how thin that area really is), then right-handed hitters, then switch hitters. Since Cliff Floyd is a power hitter, who can steal a couple of bases, steals are included, and only comparable batters are included (for example – you aren’t going to find seasons like Buddy Harrelson’s or Lenny Dykstra’s listed here – just players who hit a lot of homers – which, relative to Mets history, would be more than 25 or so…and in some cases, less):

LEFTIES

Jeromy Burnitz, 2003: 65 games, 64-234 (.274 AVG./.344 OBP./.581 SLG.) 18 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB, 38 RUNS (Traded mid-season to the Los Angeles Dodgers)

Ed Kranepool, 1971: 122 games, 118-421 (.280 AVG./.340 OBP./.447 SLG.) 14 HR, 58 RBI, 0 SB, 61 RUNS (Kranepool had a season where he hit 16 homers, but this was his best overall year)

Keith Hernandez, 1986: 149 games, 171-551 (.310 AVG./.413 OBP./.446 SLG.) 13 HR, 83 RBI, 2 SB, 94 RUNS (1986 was not Hernandez’s biggest power year, but his best stats year)

John Olerud, 1997-1999: About 159 games, 524-1662 (.315 AVG./.425 OBP./.495 SLG.) 21 HR, 97 RBI, 1.6 SB, 96 RUNS (These are three-year averages, since Olerud put up excellent, consistent numbers his three years with the Mets – the batting average, on-base-percentage, and slugging averages are all approximate).

Rusty Staub, 1975: 155 games, 162-574 (.282 AVG./.371 OBP./.448 SLG.) 19 HR, 105 RBI, 2 SB, 93 RUNS

Darryl Strawberry, 1987: 154 games, 151-532 (.284 AVG./.398 OBP./.583 SLG.) 39 HR, 104 RBI, 36 SB, 108 RUNS (252 career homers as a Met from 1983-1990 leads the all-time Mets homer category, also leads in RBI – he had the same HR total in 1988, but wasn’t as good everywhere else)

Mo Vaughn, 2002: 139 games, 126-487 (.259 AVG./.349 OBP./.456 SLG.) 26 HR, 72 RBI, 0 SB, 67 RUNS

Robin Ventura, 1999: 161 games, 177-588 (.301 AVG./.379 OBP./.529 SLG.) 32 HR, 120 RBI, 1 SB, 88 RUNS (As far as I can remember, Ventura had incredible numbers at the All Star break, and then faded big-time in the second half)

RIGHTIES

Mike Piazza, 1999: 141 games, 162-534 (.303 AVG./.361 OBP/.575 SLG.) 40 HR, 124 RBI, 2 SB, 100 RUNS

Tommie Agee, 1970: 153 games, 182-636 (.286 AVG./.344 OBP./.469 SLG.) 24 HR, 75 RBI, 31 SB, 107 RUNS

Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999: 158 games, 191-628 (.304 AVG./385 OBP./.502 SLG.) 27 HR, 108 RBI, 9 SB, 123 RUNS

Gary Carter, 1985: 149 games, 156-555 (.281 AVG./.365 OBP./.488 SLG.) 32 HR, 100 RBI, 1 SB, 83 RUNS

Bernard Gilkey, 1996: 153 games, 181-571 (.317 AVG./.393 OBP./.562 SLG.) 30 HR, 117 RBI, 17 SB, 108 RUNS

SWITCH-HITTERS

Howard Johnson, 1989: 153 games, 164-571 (.287 AVG./.369 OBP./.559 SLG.) 36 HR, 101 RBI, 41 SB, 104 RUNS

Todd Hundley, 1996: 153 games, 140-540 (.259 AVG./.356 OBP./.550 SLG.) 41 HR, 112 RBI, 1 SB, 85 RUNS

These are, for the most part, the greatest offensive seasons by individual Mets in the team’s history. Yes, power is stressed, but the overall stats are pretty good too – for example, Edgardo Alfonzo in 1999 scored a team-record 123 runs to go with his 27 homers and 108 RBI. And not all huge power seasons are included. A guy like Dave Kingman, for example, isn’t included, because while he may have hit more than 30 homers, he didn’t do much else at the plate.

So now let’s look at Cliff Floyd so far this season:

Cliff Floyd, 2005: 80 games, 86-300 (.287 AVG./.360 OBP./.543 SLG.) 22 HR, 55 RBI, 7 SB, 51 RUNS

Floyd missed about 8 games with an injury, so the numbers could be even better – and he has tailed off a bit lately. If he keeps up the pace he’s on now, though, he will challenge Hundley’s Mets record of 41 homers in a season, and become just the third Met to reach the 40-homer plateau. It’s almost embarrassing to print these numbers…the Mets have not had a very good history offensively.

So as far as comparisons go, right away we can throw out Vaughn, Kranepool, and Agee, because Floyd’s All-Star break numbers nearly match what those guys did in full seasons. If the Mets were sellers as the trading deadline approached, they could get more for Floyd than they did for Burnitz – who had very comparable numbers in just 45 games before he was traded a couple of years ago.

Floyd will definitely finish ahead of Hernandez’s ’86 season, barring injury. Hernandez was a very good offensive player, but Floyd should be able to best Hernandez’s best season (as a Met).

Staub and Alfonzo had similar seasons in that they didn’t hit an outrageous number of homers (though Alfonzo’s 27 was a high number), but they were very, very productive. Floyd probably won’t get to Alfonzo’s club-record 123 runs, but he’s already almost surpassed the homer total.

Olerud didn’t have one outstanding season, but he was so consistent. So he beats out Floyd if you compare Mets careers, but Floyd is on his way to a better individual season.

That leaves, in descending order, the greatest offensive seasons in Mets history:

Mike Piazza, 1999
Darryl Strawberry, 1987
Howard Johnson, 1989
Bernard Gilkey, 1996
Todd Hundley, 1996
Robin Ventura, 1999
Gary Carter, 1985

Hall of Famer Carter had a great season for 1985 – but it wouldn’t be as great these days. Floyd will probably better Carter, especially since he can steal a few bases and he’ll probably score more runs. But Carter’s in the Hall.

Ventura tailed so much in 1999 that we probably could have had this discussion about his 1999 season at that year’s All Star break (and we could have included Alfonzo, Piazza, and Olerud – and the list of greatest Mets seasons would have been a lot thinner) and said that Ventura was having the greatest Mets season ever. If I remember correctly, he had unbelievable numbers at the break, and slumped a lot over the last part of the season – if I remember right, he was lucky to finish with a batting average over .300. So if Floyd tails off, the comparisons to lefty-hitting Ventura will be appropriate – otherwise, I think Floyd moves ahead of Ventura. (But Ventura did hit one of the most dramatic home runs in Mets post-season history, with the grand slam single against the Braves in the NLCS. I’d love to see Floyd in a position to try to match that.)

Hundley had a great season, and the team-record homers merits a high rank on the list. But he only hit .259, and Floyd should score more runs than Hundley, while giving that home run record a run for its money. Gilkey goes higher than Hundley because while Hundley hit more homers that year, Gilkey was better everywhere else – including a team-record 44 doubles. I don’t know that Floyd will beat the average, runs, and RBI totals of Gilkey, but he will be close enough that hitting more homers will put him ahead of Gilkey on the list. (Incidentally – Floyd isn’t anywhere near Gilkey’s doubles total – but future Hall of Famer David Wright has 22 doubles at the break – it’ll be worth watching to see if he gets near Gilkey’s total.)

HoJo and Strawberry were so similar stats-wise because of the fact that they stole so many bases. Both were 40-40 threats. Strawberry gets the nod ahead of HoJo because of the then-record home run total. But it’s very close between the two.

And Mike Piazza gets the all-time best season because he did what Hundley did, and then some. Piazza hit 40 homers, only the second Met to do so, and he drove in 124 runs and scored another 100. To top it all off, he hit .303, all while catching. That’s tough – another position, and who knows how many homers he would have hit. And while I didn’t factor defense in with everyone, it merits consideration here. (Floyd, by the way, is having a great defensive season – for him, anyway. He had that one awful play that cost the Mets Friday night’s game in Pittsburgh, but his defense has been very good.)

So if Floyd sets a team-record for home runs, I think he zooms to the top of this list…because the RBI and run totals, I’m sure, will increase along with the homers. If he fizzles out, it would have to be a bad second half for him to fall off this list completely – 30 homers would still put him in the Carter range. An average second half would throw Floyd somewhere around where Gilkey is on the list…a very good season, but not the best. Of course, the most important thing about a huge second half by Floyd (coupled with the ever-hopeful huge second half from Carlos Beltran*) would be the fact that it helps propel the Mets to a post-season berth.

Now, a check of the mail bag finds an e-mail from Dave:

"Dear JohnnyMets,

An All-Star roundup for you.

--What did you think of A-Rod's white shoes? According to the Daily News, he did it as a shout out to Keith Hernandez. Gary Carter also used to wear white shoes during the ASG.

--Terry Francona wears No. 47. This is notable because I've never seen him before without that Belichick-wannabe warmup jacket, even when its 95 and humid at Fenway.

--Kenny Rogers. I'll set, you spike. Do those 2 ER count against his season stats?

--And now an open ended question... How has the NY media treated Pedro's all star snub? Is he still in the honeymoon period? I accurately predicted he would skip (see the JMBSDC Feb. 24 mailbag), but I also said he would have stopped talking to the press by now. And just for bookkeeping purposes, I'm 1-3 on predictions this year, since I said picked June 11th for the Ken Griffey Jr season-ending-injury date. (Same mailbag, you can look it up).

Dave"

Wow. Dave crediting himself for his accurate predictions. I'm not much on following up on my predictions - I just like to throw them out there willy nilly and if I'm right, and I remember that I predicted it, then I'll try to get some kind of credit (i.e. - Mets go 74-and-0 in the second half, cruising to a World Series win!!! - I'll remember that in October. And I do remember that I picked Houston to make the playoffs - their recent run is making me look good.). Anyway, good for Dave for following up on himself.

Let's take this one-by-one. I did not notice A-Rod's white shoes. Interesting parallel there, with Hernandez/Carter and the white shoes. I don't know what to make of that.

Funny you should mention Francona and his jersey number. As he came out when he was introduced, I said to the wife, "Hmm. Francona's wearing number 47 tonight. I wonder who he gave up his number to for the game." I didn't even realize that this was his everyday number until you mentioned it...and I now realize I never knew what number he wore. And it's because he's always wearing that jacket...it didn't even occur to me. Thanks for piecing that together.

All I have to say about the Kenny Rogers situation (and which I forgot to mention yesterday) is that Kevin Kennedy has to get off the Kenny Rogers bandwagon. You're looking more and more like a fool, Kevin...Rogers isn't the victim here.

Finally, the New York media seems to forget that Pedro* does this every year. They seem to think the Mets organization convinced Pedro* not to go, because he pitched on Sunday. If that's the case, then it was because Pedro* himself brought it up. You're right - he was never going to the Game - even before the season started. But the New York media is so caught up in the fact that they're getting along with Martinez*, I think, that it's all goodies and gumdrops between the two...so Pedro* can do no wrong right now. As far as I'm concerned, he should have gone, honor the selection like everyone else....but let's move on.

THE KID'S KIDS: It looks like rain struck Florida again - Still 12-3, atop the division. I don't know what color Gary Carter's shoes were.

Coming tomorrow: Back to baseball!! Atlanta vs. the Mets in New York. Hopefully I'll be able to watch the game on TBS at work.

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