HAPPY THANKSGIVING

I have a ton I'm thankful for this Thanksgiving, mostly the personal stuff. But you don't come here to read about my wife and daughters - I assume you come to read about the Mets and the Jets. So I'll keep this to the foolish stuff.

And tell you that this year, as a sports fan, I am extremely thankful for the 2008 Jets.

At the very least, if the Jets didn't go any further than the 8-3 at which they now stand, they've taken the bad taste of the end of the Mets' season out of my mouth. At most, they'll give me some playoff football, and I'd be disappointed if it isn't multiple playoff games for the first time in four years.

I'm thankful for Brett Favre. I think it begins and ends with him. The Jets line finally seems to be coming together, and I think it's no coincidence that the less Favre is pressured, the less he makes mistakes. I maintain that Chad Pennington wouldn't be having this same amount of success with the Jets this year because he would have been crushed (physically) by Week 3. Favre is tougher, and battled through some injuries, I think, and now he's not getting hit as much. Put Pennington behind the Jets' line in Week 13, and yes, I think he and Favre would be on equal footing. But not from early in the season...and that's part of the reason he's doing so well in Miami - I don't think he's been touched all year. (I'm also thankful that to this point, rooting for the team I despise to see Pennington succeed hasn't bitten me in the behind.) And I love the youthful joy Favre brings to the team -he makes it fun to root for the team.

And there's one last thing I'm thankful for regarding Brett Favre. I'm thankful he's a Jet. I don't like the way he went about things this off-season, that's for sure. And I slightly dread the fact that the Jets might be the Packers of the past couple of years in the coming off-seasons, the difference being they don't have a first-round draft pick waiting in the wings....but I'm afraid from now on Favre will hold them hostage the way he held Green Bay hostage the past few years. But maybe that's the price you pay for this kind of success.

Point is - I really like Brett Favre. I've rooted for him for a very long time. Remember, I've always had a soft spot for the Packers - maybe it was the yellow in their uniform, maybe it was that they were a playoff team when the Jets were awful. So it was very easy for me to root for him as a Jet - it's like a dream come true for me. Remember a couple of years ago when I mused that Mike Sherman could become the new Jets coach and lure Favre over? It happened, in a different way than I expected, and I'm happy about it. It's not like a guy like John Elway or Dan Marino, both of whom I could never stand, is now quarterbacking my team - it's a guy I've always rooted for.

I know losing seasons. Baseball, football, you name it - I've seen the worst of it. So I think that makes me appreciate the good times even more. And this is a good time. And for that, I'm thankful.

NFL WEEK 12 RECAP

Another week in the books, and another quick turnaround, with Week 13 starting on Thursday:

BEST GAME OF WEEK 12: I'm not sure there was a best game in Week 12 - the Colts and Chargers might have been the best of the bunch. Giants-Cardinals was good, too - and would have been better had the Cardinals guy caught the onside kick. And Patriots-Dolphins was pretty good...but this week was a bit short on a best game.

BEST PERFORMANCE WEEK 12: You'd think there would be a clear cut favorite in a week where two teams scored 50+ points, but I'll go with the guy whose team scored 48. Matt Cassel threw for 400 yards for the second straight week (415), had three touchdowns versus 1 interception, and also rushed for a TD. He's creating quite a payday for himself for next year.

WORST PERFORMANCE OF WEEK 12: More candidates here than, say, the best game of the week. While I'd like to give it to the Eagles' offense for not being able to tackle Ed Reed (whose record-setting 108-yard interception return was not only bogus because he should have been tackled but which also gave my fantasy opponent a 5-point win rather than a 1-point win for me, costing me any shot at the playoffs...whew, it felt good to get that off my chest), there are other more deserving candidates. Such as the entire Rams team, who never showed up to play the Bears, or the Jaguars, who were down 14-0 before I even had the remote in my hand. But for individual performance, I'll go with Brady Quinn, who went 8-for-18 with just 94 yards and 2 interceptions, losing a winnable game.

BEST GAME IN WEEK 13: Steelers-Patriots is intriguing to get another guage of where those two teams are at, especially from the standpoint of a Jets fan. But I think of all the NFL games, Carolina-Green Bay is an interesting NFC matchup, as well as Giants-Redskins. The Giants are amazing each week - a division matchup is a good test for them and this is also a huge measuring stick for Washington.

BEST PERFORMANCE PREDICTED IN WEEK 13: I'm going way out on a limb here, and I'm going to serve up a Thanksgiving surprise. Something in my gut (I always listen to my gut when Thanksgiving rolls around) tells me Detroit is going to play Tennessee tough on Thursday. And I think I'm going to pick them to win. They're desperate to get a win, this is their annual show-off game, and they're not going to want to embarrass themselves. Plus, they started out strong against Tampa Bay on Sunday before folding. Maybe this week they play a full game. It's a tall order against Tennessee, but I bet there's a letdown for them after they lost their first game. So I'm going to say Lions 27, Titans 24, as the best performance in Week 13.
-Last Week: I said Tony Romo for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had 341 yards and 3 touchdowns. Usually I overestimate, this time I was under. But I was right about him having a big bounceback week, so I'll take credit there.

IS ESTRADA NOTHING MORE THAN A CHiP?

All puns aside (I've never seen 'CHiPs', so I don't even know if that title makes sense), I'm not sure I understand this Johnny Estrada deal. First I'll clarify a few things, then I'll get into what the story appears to be.

Clarifications
I wrote last week something along the lines of not reading that Estrada has been a clubhouse problem, so I wasn't sure why he is now on his fifth team in seven years. After the deal, reading newspaper articles, I read about the fact that Estrada clashed with his pitchers in Milwaukee and had some conflicts with his coaches (there was a near-fight with either pitching coach Mike Maddux or manager Ned Yost in Milwaukee...I've read conflicting reports about who it was...might have been both). So I guess he's a hothead. Probably not more so than LoDuca. Estrada, though, is supposedly not a great handler of pitchers....again, not much different than LoDuca.

Also, Estrada is not very good at throwing out runners attempting (and usually succeeding) to steal. He threw out something like 8% of runners last year. But I think, according to what I've read, the Mets think the surgeries Estrada underwent after the season will improve that stat for him.

Now the speculation
Now that all that's out of the way, here's what's being speculated:
1) I've read that it's highly unlikely Estrada will be on the Mets' Opening Day roster. I don't know who the Mets would have as a catcher if this is the case, because I don't think they view Ramon Castro as an everyday guy.
2) The Mets might just have acquired Estrada (for Guillermo Mota, so it was worth doing) as leverage, so other teams can't hang the fact that they don't have a catcher over them when they try to make deals for other players. Now it looks like they have the catching hole plugged, and they can't get roped into taking a catcher or someone they wouldn't want, and it gives Omar Minaya more freedom to make a deal for a frontline starter. I'm not totally sure I understand this viewpoint, but there it is.
3) Instead of number 2, and I understand this point a whole lot better (but I'm also not a GM, so do I really need to understand all of these things?), Estrada could be a bargaining chip in another deal, and he'll just get turned around in said deal.

The bottom line here is that I like Johnny Estrada, and if he is the Mets' starting catcher on Opening Day, I'm happy with that. But I suspect this won't be the last time this off-season that I'm writing about him.

HOPE YOUR THANKSGIVING WAS BETTER THAN KELLEN'S
Meanwhile, I would be remiss if I didn't take the opportunity to write about Thursday's debacle by the Jets. It wasn't so much a debacle for me, though. I had the Dallas defense in my fantasy league, so in addition to rooting against Kellen Clemens, I had the opportunity to root for the Dallas defense to do well. (I loved the Terrence Newman interception return for a touchdown.)

I learned this on Thursday: You have a much higher probability of successful cheering when you root against the Jets than when you root for them. I won't be doing this forever - it'll just last the rest of this season (except, maybe, when they play New England) - but it was an interesting Thanksgiving experiment.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!

(Unless you're a Jets fan, in which case, enjoy the Parade, dinner, and don't watch the game.)

HERE'S JOHNNY

Considering it's late November, and I didn't think I'd be following much baseball this deep into the off-season, I'm pretty thrilled with the moves the Mets have made. Tuesday they traded Guillermo Mota for Johnny Estrada, solidifying the catcher position the day after they shored up second base.

I've thought highly of Estrada ever since he came up with the Phillies. I don't know if he was talked up a lot by the Philadelphia media, or I just heard a lot about him because he was a young guy coming up on a rival team in the NL East, but I remember thinking that the Braves made a great move trading for him. And I know that Estrada is better than anyone else available on the free agent market - and I think, for the Mets, that includes Jorge Posada. When you combine offense and defense, and their ages (Estrada is five years younger), I think the Mets got the best catcher available (even if his availability comes as a surprise) this off-season.

There are questions. Estrada is coming off post-season surgery on his knee, and had a bone spur removed from his elbow. So I guess there's some recovery involved. There's also the matter of Estrada playing for his 5th team in 7 years in the majors. He's been traded away from every team - which either means four other teams didn't want him, or four other teams really wanted him badly. I don't remember hearing much about Estrada as a clubhouse problem, so let's hope it's the latter. (From what I'm reading really quickly online, it seems Estrada's first - and only - season in Milwaukee was a disappointment, to fans and to him. He's owned up to how badly he played. So maybe it was a 'get value for him now, since fans are down on him' type deal.) The Breweres are rumored to be seeking Jason Kendall...they really have no catcher now that they've dealt Estrada.

I think this is a great deal for the Mets. You can't beat unloading an erratic (and cheating) reliever, and getting lots of value in return.

They say you win with what you have up the middle, and now the Mets have Estrada, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran up the middle. The one gaping hole there is the pitcher's mound - and that's Omar Minaya's next challenge.

AND ON THE FOOTBALL FRONT

Thanksgiving is probably my favorite holiday. I love the fall, I love getting together with the family, and I love eating. I also love watching the football with everyone. So when I saw the NFL schedule this year, I especially couldn't wait for Thanksgiving, to watch the Jets upset the Cowboys on national television, as they showed the world what they were made of!

Needless to say, that excitement has worn off. Lots. I was disappointed the Jets won last week. And I'm hoping the Cowboys embarrass them on Thursday...this coming from a guy who hates the Cowboys. You know where I stand on this - the whole Chad Pennington thing has just left a really sour taste in my mouth.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that last year's playoff appearance was one of the worst things that could have happened to the Jets, specifically, to Eric Mangini. He was given last year, they could have been awful, and he could have built things up his way. But they surprised everyone, he was the Boy Wonder, Man-Genius, and that created pressure. So this year, there was no question that Pennington was going to be the starting quarterback, and the playoffs were the expectation, especially with the addition of Thomas Jones, and it didn't work out. People didn't play well, and it was magnified even worse because of the expectations caused by last year.

Maybe Chad Pennington shouldn't have been the starter from the beginning this year. Maybe then I would have been more willing to root for Kellen Clemens. But after leading the Jets to the playoffs last year, Mangini had to go with Pennington. He had no shot to start building with his own quarterback - he would have been killed. Then he was killed for going to Pennington too late. I still don't agree with the decision, but at least Mangini has things on his terms now. The problem is, if the Jets don't rebound and win next year - he probably won't get a fourth year on his terms. So now the Jets are playing out the string - with some really tough games left on the schedule. And 'the string' starts Thursday. I suspect the performance against Pittsburgh will be the exception, rather than the rule.

I'll make a special Thanksgiving pick Wednesday, then I'm heading to New York for the Thanksgiving weekend, and I'll be back next week.

11:55am on Sunday - I need to post the picks quick - busy Thanksgiving weekend, you know:

KC -3 NE: Me, Kansas City (maybe because they're home), Dave and the wife, New England

CIN -9 Bal: Me, Baltimore, not to win, but to cover, Dave and the wife, Cincinnati

Car -3.5 BUF: Me, Carolina - they have to bounce back against the bad Bills, Dave Buffalo, wife, Carolina

TB -3 Chi: I think Chicago will win outright, Dave and the wife take the Bucs

SD -3 WAS: I don't think the Chargers will beat the Redskins in Washington - I take the 'Skins, Dave takes San Diego, the wife takes Washington

MIN -3.5 Cle: I actually think Minnesota's on a roll, I take the Vikings, Dave and the wife take the Browns

TEN -8.5 SF: In Tennessee, I think the 49ers will cover, maybe even win, Dave takes the Titans, wife takes the 49ers

STL -3 HOU: I take Saint Louis, so does Dave, the wife takes the Texans

Jax -3 ARI: All three of us take Arizona - watch out for the upset

OAK -7 Mia: I take Oakland - it's in Oakland, and Miami laid an egg last week, Dave and the wife both take Miami

SEA -4.5 NYG: I think Seattle wins this because they're home, I take Seattle, Dave and the wife both take the Giants.

PHI -4.5 GB: I think Philly played very well with McMahon last week, I think they can beat the Packers, so do Dave and the wife

NO PK NYJ: Saints. Dave and the wife, ironically, take the Jets

IND -8 Pit: Seems like a lot of points, but I take Indy 30, Pittsburgh 20. So Indy covers. Dave and the wife take Pittsburgh plus the points.

Thanksgiving Day Dave and I were 1-1, and the wife, of course, was 2-0.

This week's special Thanksgiving picks edition of johnnyjets.blogspot.com features the big debate: Will the Indianapolis Colts go undefeated this season? I have enlisted the help of a Patriots fan, and Colts hater, Dave in Brighton, and he will argue against the Colts going 19-0 (or at least 16-0). I will tell you why Indianapolis will finally shut up the '72 Dolphins.

First, me:

The Colts have a much tougher road than the '72 Dolphins, because there are two more regular season games, and they're going to have to go 19-0 instead of 17-0. But they can do it, and here's why.

First, the remaining schedule for the Colts:
Monday night vs. Pittsburgh (7-3)
Sunday, Dec. 4 vs. Tennessee (2-8)
Sunday, Dec. 11 at Jacksonville (7-3)
Sunday, Dec. 18 vs. San Diego (6-4)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at Seattle (8-2)
Sunday, Jan. 1 vs. Arizona (3-7)
Playoffs

It's not the easiest go for the Colts, but they can (and I say they will) win all of those games. Obviously, the games they have to worry about are Seattle, San Diego, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh. Tennessee and Arizona should be blowouts, (even if the backups are going against Arizona, which I don't think will be the case).

Everything is clicking for the Colts right now - they are able to turn it on whenever they need to. The Colts' closest calls so far this season came early on, when they had successive 7-point victories over the Jaguars and the Browns, but they got enough to win. And the defense stepped up, which is something that hasn't happened for them in recent years. Then, last week, when the defense disappeared, the offense reappeared, putting up 45 points in a 45-37 win over the Bengals. They get what they need each week to win, and that will continue.

The top reason, though, why the Colts will win it all, without losing at all, is Peyton Manning. He does it all, and does what it takes to win. He made the decision last week, when the coaches were pulling the offense off the field on a 4th-and-1, to go for the first down, then he proceeded to get the first down. He's a smart player, he runs a great offense, and he is able to win his teams games, and he will continue to do that.

Finally, this is one of those "monkey off your back" seasons for the Colts, and they're doing that in extraordinary fashion. The Colts got the big win they needed against the Patriots, in Foxboro, on a Monday night in front of a national TV audience. That is a huge confidence-builder. The fact that they are wrapping up home field advantage throughout the playoffs is huge too, because they're not going to have to go through another city (including not having to make another trip to New England) in order to advance to the Super Bowl, which is part of the reason they haven't been to the Super Bowl in previous seasons. The other big "monkey" has been the Colts' D, and last week notwithstanding, that monkey is finally off Tony Dungy's back, because this year's Colts D is fierce.

The Colts should make life difficult for whoever is playing quarterback for the Steelers Monday night - even if it is Ben Roethlisberger, and not Tommy Maddox. The Colts should win the rematch with the Jaguars, but that game will not be easy. The one blemish could come Christmas Eve at Seattle, and here's the problem - if things are wrapped up for the Colts by then, Dungy might start resting some starters, and try to take some pressure off the Colts by making that a game they could lose, therefore not having to worry through the playoffs about staying undefeated. But I believe that nothing will keep Peyton Manning from sitting out games down the stretch, and other teammates will follow his example, and the Colts will cruise to their next big test - in the playoffs and Super Bowl, and who knows who'll they'll face then.
"Dear JohnnyJets,

Some old guy came out recently and said thinks the Colts have the right mix to go undefeated. I forget his name. Something Shula. I'm sure I know more about this topic than he does, so I will give you three good reasons the Colts will end the season with at least one loss.

1. Lightning in a bottle. To go undefeated, the Colts need to play six more games without any major breakdowns. That's 24 quarters of focus, something that is nearly impossible in the Any Given Sunday NFL.

2. Look at the schedule. Unlike the parade of creampuffs and prep teams they faced in the first seven weeks before their bye (how convenient -- a bye before facing the Pats. Topic for another email), the Colts must actually face teams with winning records. Pittsburgh, at Jacksonville, San Diego, and at Seattle.

3. Resting their players. The Colts lead their division by three games, and lead in the race for homefield advantage by two. I predict they'll have everything locked up going into week 15, week 16 at the latest, which means they'll have two games to sit their starters, or let them play just a series or two. While the Cardinals are unlikely to take advantage in week 17, I bet the Seahawks will, at home on Christmas Eve.

Signed,
Dave in Brighton


PS Atl -3, Den +1.5"

One more thing for me to mention - I hate Peyton Manning when he plays the Jets, but I really like him overall. I liked him in college, when I used to read about him delivering pizza to the fans waiting in line for Tennessee tickets. I have also since heard from University of Tennessee alumni that Manning is still god-like to them...that's gotta count for something. But I do believe that he is a truly nice guy, and he's easy for me to root for in seasons like this. Also, I like Tony Dungy, and hear from all corners of the earth what a wonderful guy he is.

Oh, another thing I should mention. This might be tough for others to follow (others being people who root for teams who are consistently good), but since I am a Jets fan, I have gotten into the habit of rooting for other teams down the stretch who I want to follow into the playoffs, since it's rare that the Jets are still playing worthwhile games in December and January. This isn't a frontrunner thing, it's just to have rooting interest. Anyway, in the late 80's, early 90's, that team was the Oilers, and I liked to root for them in the playoffs. In the early-to-mid-90's, the team was the Packers. Now, I find myself torn between the AFC and the NFC, and I'm rooting for the Falcons, because I love watching Michael Vick, and the Colts, because I want them to win in a year the Jets aren't in contention. I will root for the Colts to win it all, and then the Falcons I'll root for in the Super Bowl another year down the road. But I do want an Atlanta-Indianapolis matchup this year. Just FYI.

Lastly, the picks. As you saw, Dave goes with Atlanta and Dallas. So do I (Atlanta is giving three in Detroit, and Dallas is getting two at home versus Denver). The wife takes Atlanta and Denver. That's the Thanksgiving picks - the standings after eleven weeks are pitiful. I was 5-11 last week, the other two were 6-10. Now I'm bringing up the rear at 71-85-4, Dave is 64-76-4, and the wife is 78-78-4. Someone needs to step it up.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Real quick, folks, just to get them in, my Thanksgiving Day picks, for entertainment purposes only:

I'll take both favorites - Indy by 9 over the Lions, and the Cowboys, giving three to the Bears. Just because the Colts are playing that well, and the Bears are playing that bad.

I pulled myself out of the doldrums with a big 11-4-1 last week, improving overall to 81-75-4.

Happy Thanksgiving!!!