ANALYSIS THROUGH SIX WEEKS

Hi. I'm sorry it's been a while. Busy time of year. Not sure how often I'll be updating over the next couple of weeks - but please keep checking back. Rest assured, though, that I have been watching plenty of baseball, and I am well qualified to give this summary:

MOST IMPRESSIVE: Lately, it's been Carlos Beltran. How about this past week? .381 Avg., 8 RBI, 5 runs scored in 21 at-bats. He's led an offense which qualifies this session as the.....

BIGGEST SURPRISE: It shouldn't be that the Mets' offense is listed under a "surprise" this year...but such is the case. The way they were playing, I was about to write an obituary last week on the 2008 season. Then the bats came alive in Los Angeles and against the Reds, and it looks like there may be hope yet. Again, the fact that this is even remotely "surprising" is disheartening, but let's accentuate the positive here (12 runs against Brad Penny, then 21 in 3 games versus Cincinnati).

LEAST IMPRESSIVE: David Wright has been slow to have his bat wake up, while the rest of the offense has been impressive. He's at 12 doubles, but I feel like he hasn't gotten a big hit in a long time.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Oliver Perez. Even when he's good he's making you hold his breath. How about this, though? This occurred to me on Sunday. Is it possible that he needs Brian Schneider as a steadying influence when he's on the mound? I haven't heard anyone mention this, but Perez had a great start to the year when Schneider was behind the plate, then Schneider got hurt, and Perez fell apart. Coincidence? Maybe. But Schneider's healthy...so let's see.

MOST IMPRESSIVE: How about Brandon Webb? I sang his praises during his shutout streak last year, but this has been just as impressive. 8 starts, 8 wins. He's got a 2.41 ERA, and has one complete game. He's solid.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: I was going to go with Florida Baseball, and mention the Marlins, Rays, the Florida State League, some silliness like that. But everyone is touting Florida baseball (and rightly so). So I'll say just the Rays, who are fun to root for. And you know what, I can't not mention the Marlins, even though they're the division rivals. As long as they keep it up, I'll keep mentioning them as a surprise.


LEAST IMPRESSIVE: The Blue Jays' offense ought to be ashamed of itself (themselves?). For the team to have starting pitching that great (Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, and Shawn Marcum have been outstanding) and be five games under .500 is ridiculous. They just can't score.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Have I mentioned Andruw Jones yet? I think it's about time. He's hitting .170 out in LA, with just one homer and 5 RBI. Even when David Ortiz was at his lowest point this year, he was still driving in runs. This is just awful.

8TH DROPS METS OUT OF 1ST

Braves 3, Mets 2 (ATL: 5-1, NYM: 4-2, 1 GB)


I'm an optimist, so we begin with the good news: Orlando Hernandez had another very good start for the Mets - 6 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 4 walks, and 6 K's. He definitely put them in a position to win the game. Unfortunately, Aaron Heilman proved to be the weak link in the bullpen on Sunday, giving up 2 eighth inning runs, and the Mets lost their second straight to Atlanta.

It's in my memory that the Mets have struggled against Kyle Davies. That's not something I've looked up...but it sounds familiar to me. Davies gave up back-to-back home runs in the second inning to Shawn Green and Ramon Castro (who hit a bomb), but other than that, he was very good against the Mets. He was also helped by some good defense - that same inning, Andruw Jones robbed David Wright of an extra-base hit with an over-the-shoulder diving catch. Davies struck out 8 Mets in 6-and-2-thirds innings.

Right from the start, though, the Mets wasted opportunities. Jose Reyes led off with a 4-pitch walk, stole second, and got to third on a balk. He was stranded. Wright was robbed later, and the Mets left Reyes on again after he tripled in the fifth (with two outs).

For the Braves, Kelly Johnson led off the game with a homer, giving them the early 1-0 lead. And the Mets had the 2-1 lead into the 8th, when Heilman surrendered the first runs by the bullpen all year (week). Chipper Jones led off the inning with a double, and scored on a double by Brian McCann. Then Jeff Francoeur lined one into right field, which turned into a double, scoring McCann. Just like that, the Braves were ahead.

Bob Wickman made the Mets go quietly in the ninth - a flyout to center by Green, a flyout to left by Castro, and then he struck out pinch hitter David Newhan looking. The loss puts the Braves a game in front of the Mets in the division. That's the first time the Mets have been out of first in about a year (they took over first early last year and stayed there).

The Mets have their home opener on Monday (before another off day Tuesday), against the self-proclaimed "team to beat" in the division, the Phillies (who absolutely don't scare me in 2007). I have a feeling the Braves are going to be hanging around more this year than last. I'm not saying they're going to be a huge threat - but they're going to be the team to worry about in the East. John Maine pitches for the Mets at Shea Monday.


1010 WINS JOHNNYMETS.BLOGSPOT.COM PLAYER OF THE GAME: Sunday the award goes to Bob Wickman of the Braves. He picked up his third save of the season, setting the Mets down 1-2-3 in the ninth. A day after things got a bit dicey in the ninth for the Braves, Wickman didn't give the Mets a chance. His line: 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 H, 1 K.



SCHEDULE: The Mets don't play a particular division in interleague play this year - they play the Twins, A's, Tigers, and Yankees twice. The Yankees is because of the rivalry, but the other three, I think, are because the Mets won the division. I feel like the division winner gets a tougher interleague schedule. Am I right on that, or am I confusing it with football? That's a tough go for the Mets this year, though. The Mets also make two trips to Los Angeles this year to face the Dodgers. They have a difficult schedule.

APRIL 8TH - HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO HALL OF FAMER GARY CARTER!! (and Dave in Brighton)

BEAT THE STREAK: Snowed out again. I'm going to try one more time with that series - Ichiro on Monday.

No news out of the Mets' first spring workout, which took place Thursday morning at 9 o'clock. No news is definitely good news - we don't need to be hearing about injuries or camp mishaps on Day 1.

That said, I'll spend a little bit of time today talking about the future of the Mets.

2B Anderson Hernandez and OF Lastings Milledge are the two big Mets prospects to keep an eye on this year. Both seem to have made it through the off-season without being traded (though I wouldn't put it past Omar Minaya to trade Milledge for whatever pitchers might become available...I hope he doesn't). Both Hernandez and Milledge will be in Triple-A this season. (Milledge has yet to make it to the majors, Hernandez was 1-for-18 in his September call-up last year - but is better known for his fielding.) But I'm thinking ahead - to 2007. Cliff Floyd is playing his last season under his current contract. Negotiations with the Mets won't happen until after this season. But if Floyd doesn't re-up with the Mets, Milledge could get his shot in 2007. And the big question mark at second base could be filled by Hernandez in 2007 (providing Jeff Keppinger doesn't take it over this year and not give it up). Point is, the Mets, offensively and defensively, could be set for quite a while, considering the relative youth at all the other positions (Wright, Reyes, Beltran*, Nady/Diaz) - only Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca are on the wrong side of 30.

BUT - I'm not sure the Mets are built for too far into the future - because their pitching staff is getting very old. The trades of Jae Seo and Kris Benson really hurt this year's depth in the rotation, but did some damage to the rotation of the future as well. It's realistic to think that Victor Zambrano and Aaron Heilman could be around for a while, but Pedro Martinez*, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel are all up there in age (35, 40, 36 this season), and could contribute MAYBE one more season after this one (depending on how successful even this year is). Billy Wagner, even, is on a 4-year-deal, which will be his last one in the majors, he says. And the rest of the bullpen isn't the greatest in baseball this year - let alone in years to come - but more on that as spring training progresses.

There's not much help in the minors - the number one pitching prospect, Yusmeiro Petit, was traded to the Marlins in the Delgado deal, and none of the other minor leaguers are sure-fire prospects. So that's one area the Mets really need to work on. There's plenty of hope for a championship the way the team is constituted this year...but I'm looking for more than just one year of glory. And for that to happen, the Mets are going to need to bolster certain areas. The good news is, the core is there - some pieces are in place - but there's lots to go to make this a team to dominate for years to come.

PEDRO'S TOE: It seems like Pedro* will not pitch in the first round of the World Baseball Classic. I had mentioned that I didn't think the toe was that big a deal, in other words - it wouldn't cost Pedro* time with the Mets, and it wouldn't stop him from being effective this year. I still believe that. But I also mentioned I think it's Pedro*'s way (along with the Mets) of not having to do something extra-curricular, i.e. the World Baseball Classic. He doesn't like stuff like that. But I do think he really does want to pitch for his country - so I think Pedro* and the Mets are reaching a compromise, where Pedro* will pitch later in the Classic, when he works up his arm strength, and when he would be more intense during spring training anyway. I think that's where we're headed, and I'm thrilled about it - because I could easily see the Mets' hopes for 2006 going down the drain with a Pedro Martinez* injury from the World Baseball Classic.

FIGHTING WORDS: Andruw Jones told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he isn't worried about other teams (i.e. the Mets) unseating the Braves atop the NL East. He says every year they hear about different teams coming in ready to take over the division, and they never do it (citing the Mets last year and the Phillies the year before). He says the Braves have been there each and every year, and know what to expect, and know how to win, and the other teams are still learning how. He's right of course...but the Mets can use that as bulletin board fodder.

Another interesting point, Braves-related: Julio Franco talked the other day about how the Braves don't get up for any particular opponent. They treat every game the same, no matter what uniform the other team is wearing. This would be well-received advice, if he shares it with his new Mets teammates. The Mets tend to get a little more riled for games with the Braves, though those games have met with very limited success in recent years.

UNBELIEVABLE: I'm still on my mission to stop this word from being so overused. I've written about it before, both here and on johnnyjets.blogspot.com. It's especially overused in the sports domain, mostly by broadcasters. It's a crutch, when there's nothing else to say, to throw this word in to describe an event. (I've noticed it a heck of a lot in the Winter Olympics - especially in those sports where very new people are being used to broadcast - i.e. A.J. Mleczko doing women's hockey - she described everything that happened as "unbelievable"...and certain people as "unbelievable talents". They're in the Olympics - I believe they are talented.)

Anyway, it bothers me, and I'm hoping the Mets' new sports network, which I know monitors this site, will make sure their broadcasters avoid overusing the word (I must say, baseball is the sport where the word is used the least - football is the more guilty culprit). Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez are the new color men, and I'm sure Hernandez won't be using the word - he's been awesome when he's done Mets games. Darling I'm not so sure about - he was doing Washington Nationals telecasts last season, and while his analysis was good, he wasn't very exciting to listen to - I can see him slipping into "unbelievable" territory this season. I'm going to be watching for the overuse of "unbelievable" this year - and hopefully eliminate it from my own vocabulary - unless something truly "unbelievable" happens. (In case you're wondering what would be a proper use of "unbelievable", I mentioned the Cardinals' comeback/Albert Pujols' home run in the Game 5 of last year's NLCS. That is a truly "unbelievable" event - because no one saw it coming. We need to save the word for those types of situations!)

'86 METS ROUNDUP: In the season's first installment of the '86 Mets Roundup, Darling, Sid Fernandez, Howard Johnson, Tim Tuefel, and Mookie Wilson will all be at Shea Stadium Sunday morning at 9am, when individual game tickets go on sale.

ONE MORE THING: This afternoon I was watching some of the NFL Network's coverage of this weekend's scouting combine (more on that here), and I was thinking that if there was an MLB Network, I would never change the channel. Imagine - coverage of all the different spring training sites this time of year....non-stop coverage of the hot stove...classic baseball games to fill the gaps...get going on this Bud Selig!